The Economic Collapse of 2025 - Are you tired of winning yet?

I'm usually wrong about predicting the market, however, I'm not convinced that this stock market activity from tariffs will send us into a recession or any other crisis. Even with the covid stock collapse in 2020, that stock collapse didn't lead to much of a downturn, it was the covid. This feels more like a temporary period of instability due to new tariffs/trade war rather than the actual tipping point into a recession, just weeks ago "experts" were saying the economy was entering a golden age lol, but now they are dooming and selling.

I'm not saying that there isn't going to be one later in the year, we don't know how long Trump plans to push these tariffs, I'm just not convinced it's happening right now. Is there any good background indicators, other than stock market shenanigans for when the economy will crash out and enter a recession like 2008?
 
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Henry V said:
I'm usually wrong about predicting the market, however, I'm not convinced that this stock market activity from tariffs will send us into a recession or any other crisis. Even with the covid stock collapse in 2020, that stock collapse didn't lead to much of a downturn, it was the covid. This feels more like a temporary period of instability due to new tariffs/trade war rather than the actual tipping point into a recession, just weeks ago "experts" were saying the economy was entering a golden age lol, but now they are dooming and selling.

I'm not saying that there isn't going to be one later in the year, we don't know how long Trump plans to push these tariffs, I'm just not convinced it's happening right now. Is there any good background indicators, other than stock market shenanigans for when the economy will crash out and enter a recession like 2008?
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in 1930 the smoot-hawley tariff act caused what was seen as a minor adjustment in an overvalued stock market and following recession into a worldwide “great depression“
 
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The Mass Shooter Ron Soye said:
Christ would want you to be poor.
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Neil said:
But the boring policy stuff that most Americans ignored during the election in favor of culture war shit:
Her plan revolved entirely around stimulating growth in the middle class via entrepreneurship, home buying and childcare.
>invest a shitload in small businesses to drive growth, reduce taxes on small businesses
>$25,000 down payment assistance for first time homebuyers (which are a tiny fraction of people, mainly middle class college grads)
>raise taxes on billionaires by 7% (not back to 35% like it was in Obama term 2, but it's progress)
>40 billion to build new homes to assuage the housing crisis
>build at minimum 3 million new homes to accommodate new homeowners
>Lower drug costs like Biden did via Medicare negotiating down prices with Pharma companies
>$6,000 tax credit for newborn children, permanent $3,600 per kid tax credit for people who already have kids
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You forgot to mention taxing unrealized capital gains.
 
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Cool Dog Returns said:
View attachment 7088313
What? its all still down except gold
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Government can print its way out of stagnation and recession.
You aren't allowed to print your way out of poverty.
There are miles to go before bureaucrats start hurting.

You will be on the street first, then the corpos and then the gobbies.
Don't think it will go any other way. In pre WW1 europe, municipalities that were in debt up to neck still managed to "function" until everything literally stopped and all that was left was a ruined city.
 
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Gerelatha said:
in 1930 the smoot-hawley tariff act caused what was seen as a minor adjustment in an overvalued stock market and following recession into a worldwide “great depression“
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You can claim tariffs kicked it off to try and make your TARIFFS BAD case, but even if that was the spark that set it off that isn't what caused the conditions for it to happen. The main issue was that everyone and their uncle was taking out loans to buy stock on margin. People didn't just get their brokerage accounts zero'ed out. They got margin called in to crushing debt. And then you had the FED who just ignored it all and let it drag on for years.

There is a reason 1987 and the corrections since didn't cause another "great depression". The FED just prints it's way out and bails out the to big to fail. And then they make 3rd world currencies like the CAD and Euro pay the price for it.
 
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