Deep Nozzle Throat
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jun 24, 2025
My diagnosis based on the inside is that Starship HLS won't be ready until 2029 or later (especially given the sudden stepwise change to V3, to be determined how that goes when it launches in May or June). Blue Moon Mk2 is a wildcard because Blue doesn't leak like a sieve. Mk1 looks good so far, and New Shepard nailing a landing was a major milestone. The accelerated plan for Blue looks pretty robust.I know when I went to space center houston last year, they had been showcasing all of the Artemis stuff that I'm seeing now, so I can always just schedule another trip there and just ask employees your questions in person, if you're interested in me playing amateur interviewer.
I do recall seeing everything you've described, but it all looked, I guess very very basic, and clearly still being tested, so your guess of 2028 might not be too far off.
SpaceX might try to fly a dummy Starship HLS as a docking target, but the build on that hardware would have to start about now or soon (approx 1 year lead time). The refueling hurdle is also much more significant as the whole thing has to work pretty much perfectly to get a landing in by end of 2029, and even in a perfect world that seems highly unlikely. All of the associated on-orbit testing is pushed back to H2 2026 at the earliest.






