Trade War 2025 - You get tariffs and you get tariffs, tariffs for everyone!

  • Want to keep track of this thread?
    Accounts can bookmark posts, watch threads for updates, and jump back to where you stopped reading.
    Create account
In reality, partisan politics aside, it is entirely feasible the USA could possibly do OK with a 10% tariff (but I doubt any higher and probably 5% is a sweet spot), but is is essentially a consumption tax for consumers so we have to accept the inflation that comes with it.

But are we OK with a President essentially taxing its citizens without any regulation or approval from Congress? I am not and I know many Republicans who are not OK with a President essentially by fiat installing a tax. China is another matter about those tariffs which affects a number of industries and retailers here so shouldn't be in the same discussion.

10% will not break global economics, but it will strain it here and abroad. The downside of tariffs is that if the government has pork barrel projects and the tariffs fund them, they tend to be used for this projects and not actually to make robust the industries that they are purported to help.

I do not know of any Democratic or Republican congress that would not salivate at the idea of having hundreds of billions for their pet projects, so for this reason alone, I think it will not be used for the actual intended purpose and will merely be a tax by any other name. The reality is we just got taxed and will be sold a tale of how we will keep in place tax breaks that have already survived Trumps first term, Biden's Term and now Trump will probably tell us the tariffs will be responsible for the continued tax breaks as a way to sell it. But the reality is, we just got taxed.
 
Doctor Socrates said:
Sooo... the "back down" is even higher tariffs on China and retaining a 10% tariff everywhere else? ie higher prices on everything you buy, small businesses dependent on Chinese imports still annihilated, and the great new manufacturing future isn't happening?

hope the gains start to reverse as Wall Street realizes they needed to read past "paused for 90 days" and understand the rest of the world is still under 10% tariffs.
Click to expand...
There are going to be all sorts of exceptions to those tariffs too as people lean on Trump to carve out exemptions for raw materials and things like that. We'll end up with a 10 percent tariffs on doorknobs from Belgium and everyone will declare victory and go home.

Interesting article on why Trump reversed course -


 
1744319136798.png


WOW WHAT A PUSSY
 
MadStan said:
But are we OK with a President essentially taxing its citizens without any regulation or approval from Congress? I am not and I know many Republicans who are not OK with a President essentially by fiat installing a tax. China is another matter about those tariffs which affects a number of industries and retailers here so shouldn't be in the same discussion.
Click to expand...
It's not a tax just byproducts meaning the United States i'm sorry that you're okay with slave labor and screwing over your fellow citizens for your own profit most people are not.
I support 100% tariffs on poorly manufactured Chinese and other countries Goods if you don't manufacture an American you an American company you should have your ass at ceased.

Also if I have to pay taxes I want the government protecting my business interest from foreign competition
 
Gerelatha said:
prepare for trump to fold on some more things, bond yields still going up
Click to expand...
More that we need Trump to fold for real rather than just trying his pseudo attempt to look like he's folding while still wanting to keep his tariffs going.

He's pretty well fucked up this trade war as it is and the markets will probably only recover somewhat if he gives up entirely on trying to tariff the world. Though I'm not sure that'd prevent Europe looking like a better investment destination than the US now all thanks to Trump thinking he'd be a genius negotiator by never even bothering to make a deal with anyone no matter how much they asked.

Sargon's wife's son said:
It's not a tax just byproducts meaning the United States i'm sorry that you're okay with slave labor and screwing over your fellow citizens for your own profit most people are not.
I support 100% tariffs on poorly manufactured Chinese and other countries Goods if you don't manufacture an American you an American company you should have your ass at ceased.

Also if I have to pay taxes I want the government protecting my business interest from foreign competition
Click to expand...
Some targeted tariffs make sense against countries like China. But then you have stuff like the tariffs against Japan, France and the rest of the world which are retarded. The profit margins for a lot of businesses aren't large enough to adjust that easily with all those random tariffs on all the work they may be doing with other countries.

It ends up just punishing anyone that was doing business internationally while we don't even have anything being done domestically to promote manufacturing or even the time to have theoretical manufacturing constructed. They're just creating a vacuum with nothing to replace it. Has Trump even bothered proposing any funding or tax incentives for constructing new manufacturing? Or the automation that'd be necessary to make it competitive against some of these poorer countries doing it? Because so far it looks like their grand plan was tariff everyone in the world and figured that'd be all the incentive anyone needed to instantly have manufacturing built up in the US to replace all international business.

There really seems to be zero plan for how to get manufacturing going in the US in such a way that it'd ever create decent jobs or even fill the gaps that'd be created by trying to cut off trade with certain countries like China.

There really seems to have been zero planning for these tariffs or trade war as everyone was just backing Trump's gut while making it near impossible to seriously contain China the way both parties have pivoted towards wanting to do in recent years.

urgh.png
 
SBG said:
Some targeted tariffs make sense against countries like China. But then you have stuff like the tariffs against Japan, France and the rest of the world which are retarded. The profit margins for a lot of businesses aren't large enough to adjust that easily with all those random tariffs on all the work they may be doing with other countries.
Click to expand...
The French already do not let us sell our wine or champagne in the country it's very hard to get American wine in champagne a lot of my French friends like it and tell me all about it.
By the way a male capture has better wine and champagne than France due to the fact that we don't have as many lulls on what you can and can't do with the technology and don't force people to use 18th century tech so I champagne has developed a much better flavor same thing with our wine.
Also those countries also help out the domestic manufacturing with subsidies same reason that free trade doesn't benefit any country whatsoever because countries don't all have the same economic situation
 
Sargon's wife's son said:
The French already do not let us sell our wine or champagne in the country it's very hard to get American wine in champagne a lot of my French friends like it and tell me all about it.
Click to expand...
How? And why should this necessitate a trade war with every country in the world over targeted trade disputes with major problem countries like China?
 
Flaming Carrot said:
There are going to be all sorts of exceptions to those tariffs too as people lean on Trump to carve out exemptions for raw materials and things like that. We'll end up with a 10 percent tariffs on doorknobs from Belgium and everyone will declare victory and go home.

Interesting article on why Trump reversed course -


Click to expand...
Fwiw the universal 10% tariff is essentially a VAT on imports...

The Chinese tariffs are good and justified.
 
Sargon's wife's son said:
The French already do not let us sell our wine or champagne in the country it's very hard to get American wine in champagne a lot of my French friends like it and tell me all about it.
Click to expand...
Lol, just lol. Having to deal with the French daily, I know there'll be a cold day in hell before they speak well of anything American. These friends of yours were just probably being polite. As we know, Americans who have bought into the whole "exceptionalism" thing are hypersensitive. Besides, why the hell would the French import American wine when they produce and export hundreds of different varieties, at a more affordable price that imported stuff. Any wine they import usually comes from other European countries, like Italy, or countries that respect health and safety regulations in wine-making, like Chile.
 
ToEnsureVerification said:
You know what would have been an amazing economic win for the US? Selling the 16 AUKUS class submarines to Australia, a key linchpin of their security. Guess that's in the toilet now, and Australia is really regretting not buying French subs. No refunds for trusting the Red, White and Blue.
Click to expand...
So instead of trusting the "Red, White, and Blue", you wanted them to trust...
1744393984541.jpeg

"Oh."
WelperHelper99 said:
We need to catch back up. Preferably in areas without chink presence. Like the USA.
Click to expand...
Why else do you think Bruce Lee was so big here?
 
Buck Broken Chimp said:

Trump cultist went from "Biden ruined the economy" to "Trump is destroying the economy but it's good because it punishes the boomers,the rich,the jews (insert any group trump serves here)

The narrative that the stock market falling is sticking it to the boomers stops making sense the second you think about it for a few seconds. First off gen Z and Millennials invest disproportionally in the stock market because real estate and private equity is to expensive. On the topic of real estate that is actually going up now because the tariffs will make building more of it more expensive and when stocks underperform people move to real estate because it's safer. Second Trump abolished the social security tax one of the few things that hurt the boomers.

High real estate cost is the main contributing factor to America's cost of living. Consumer good cost and wages have always been things America had pretty good. The average American spends half their income on their housing.
Click to expand...
Generally correct, but tariffs are unlikely to substantially increase building costs when compared to the increases caused by market speculation. The primary costs in construction are labour and raw materials (concrete, steel, lumber). While lumber may be imported, concrete and steel are largely sourced locally, both for budgetary and logistical reasons. The other major cost (labour), isn’t subject to tariffs anyway. Im not sure what certification systems are like in the US for building components (windows, doors, e.t.c.), but here our standards system has resulted in the majority of things being manufactured locally anyway.

My expectation would be that in the short term, the cost to build a new house wouldn’t change massively, but in the longer term it’s hard to say. It’s possible investors selling their real estate assets to cover losses in the stock market may cause a drop in property values, or people may pile into real estate even harder since it’s largely unaffected by tariffs. I’m not knowledgeable enough on how mortgage rates interact with the economy to guess whether they’ll be heavily impacted by tariffs, and what that’d look like if it did. I feel the main impact on real estate as an investment will be collateral from the effects of tariffs on other markets than tariffs themselves. The main way boomers are getting fucked is with their 401k, but it‘ll be the 27-60 year old crowd (Millenials and Gen X) that’ll get fucked the most, because they have more investments in financial instruments, outstanding debts and loans (cars, student debt and mortgages) that are going to end up fucking them over in a volatile market. It’s going to be people sitting in the middle that get fucked the most here, the poor have no investments, and the rich can weather the market storm without being left destitute, but the middle class who are already living paycheck to pay check, but play the stock market to keep up appearances, are going to be up shit creek without a paddle.
 
FlimNimga said:
The other major cost (labour), isn’t subject to tariffs anyway. Im not sure what certification systems are like in the US for building components
Click to expand...
most of our labor got booted out of the country and our certs dont demand they be built or manufactured here. the killer for housing here isn't materials or labor but the permitting and inspections. those can delay projects for months or as in San Francisco's caze several years. That can lead to cost overruns because of inflation or a sudden tariff war.
 
Suppose the stories of possible $3k iPhones scared the White House into issuing exemptions.

Trump Exempts Phones, Computers, Chips From ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs​



President Donald Trump’s administration exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs, potentially cushioning consumers from sticker shock while benefiting electronics giants including Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co.

The exclusions, published late Friday by US Customs and Border Protection, narrow the scope of the levies by excluding the products from Trump’s 125% China tariff and his baseline 10% global tariff on nearly all other countries.
The exclusions would apply to smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives and computer processors and memory chips. Those popular consumer electronics items generally aren’t made in the US. Setting up domestic manufacturing would take years.

The products that won’t be subject to Trump’s new tariffs also include machines used to make semiconductors. That would be important for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which has announced a major new investment in the US as well as other chipmakers.

The tariff reprieve may prove fleeting. The exclusions stem from the initial order, which prevented extra tariffs on certain sectors from stacking cumulatively on top of the country-wide rates. The exclusion is a sign that the products may soon be subject to a different tariff, albeit almost surely a lower one for China.

One such exclusion was for semiconductors, to which Trump has regularly pledged to apply a specific tariff. He hasn’t yet done so but the latest exclusions appear to correspond with that exemption. Trump’s sectoral tariffs have so far been set at 25%, though it’s not clear what his rate on semiconductors and related products would be.

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom