Global Supply Chain Crisis 2021: Megathread - A cozy thread for watching the supply chain fall apart just in time for the holidays

[SmokeyMcRunFast]

That's mostly talking about passenger rail travel and Amtrak. Freight rail has been holding pretty steady. There's tons and tons of oil trains because they keep shutting down or not building new pipelines. Hell I know they're making tracks from single to double to increase capacity. The only bad thing for intermodal transport is you need large yards and facilities to load and unload the trailers
.View attachment 2558750

They just finished double tracking one of the bridges over a major river where I live.

Southeast USA here: Haven't noticed anything like others have shown: empty shelves, etc. That may be because I live in a rail/distribution/manufacturing hub. I /have/ noticed significant issues with staffing. My local Sonic doesn't staff personnel for the little stalls, pretty much any service industry is short staffed. A buddy of mine works for a auto industry logistics contractor. The chip issue affected them greatly, to the point where their line was completely shut down for several weeks. They recently got a shipment of chips from Mexico (I think) which allows them to go back online for a few more weeks.

SE US and a major shipping hub here too. Haven’t noticed major shortages but prices have gone up about 10-15% in the past 6 months.

Which trades would you recommend?

I’m a journeyman machinist. I live in the SE US and average pay is about $55,000 before overtime. However when the pandemic hit I managed to get a good deal on a small mill and lathe. I’ve been making contract parts for people I know who’s normal shop is booked solid for months. I’ve been making an extra $4,000 a month just doing a couple of extra hours of work every night.

I have friends who work in power generation. They are having parts shortages for critical operating components and estimated lead times in the 10-12 month range. This is made worse by the fact that thanks to JIT they stopped keeping critical parts in stock. If this winter is another cold one down south it’s going to get interesting.

 

[Xarpho]

Went to the grocery store (H-E-B) today.

Most categories were mostly stocked except for sodas, particularly seltzer water. There were some shorts and outages but that could just be normal shopping hours.

One thing I have not found is Lava soap (I like it, it's in my soap rotation). A few months ago, I picked up a 2-pack at Walmart (in their automotive section) for $3. It's now out and has been for a while; online you'd be hard pressed to find a single bar for less than $2.00 without part of a giant bulk purchase.

So there might be a problem somewhere upstream, where Wal-Mart's usual incompetence is not the problem. Without knowing the manufacturer, it's hard to tell. I don't know where WD-40's plants are, or even if they have any and it's not subcontracted out. WD-40 itself I don't think has any problems...but I honestly haven't looked.

 

[Jump]

Frozen meat tho.

Better then fighting retards at the store during a HAPPENING or coming home with no meat.
The frozen meat is bad meme is because people buy pre-frozen cheap crap and improperly keep it in 20F fridge freezer.

Buy good cuts fresh and vacuum seal it and date it. FIFO. Have a real deep freezer. -10 at least. Its will come out just as good as the day it was frozen.

 

[Thomas Highway]

Better then fighting retards at the store during a HAPPENING or coming home with no meat.
The frozen meat is bad meme is because people buy pre-frozen cheap crap and improperly keep it in 20F fridge freezer.

Buy good cuts fresh and vacuum seal it and date it. FIFO. Have a real deep freezer. -10 at least. Its will come out just as good as the day it was frozen.

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I don't think society is on the verge of collapse. There are some inconveniences.

Edit: Fuck.... i didn't realize where I was posting. My bad.

 

[the fall of man]

US Meat Prices To Remain Elevated Amid Depleted Reserves | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Earlier this month, the Biden administration finally addressed inflation as a concern but didn't blame the trillions of dollars in fiscal and monetary policies and labor shortages on increased food inflation but instead placed responsibility on meatpackers.

White House National Economic Council Director Brian Deese said "pandemic profiteering" food companies are driving up supermarket costs for Americans. This is nothing more than a blame game and failed government policies that have not just increased food prices but have left supply chains reeling due to stimulus checks that disincentivized workers from working.

 

[Mr. Skeltal]

I work in aviation repair and my company subcontracts for Pratt and Whitney. A lot of the items we overhaul need piece parts that simply aren't in stock and/or have obscene lead times. A commonly used flange blank from the OEM has a lead time of NINETY FUCKING DAYS right now for whatever inscrutable reason. Ninety days for a $1300 hunk of inconel that needs further welding and machining to be serviceable.
The parts we turn for overhaul are generally needed in no greater than three weeks, accounting for vendor repairs and the shipping associated with them. It's gotten to the point that we are looking at having the parts fabricated locally just to have blanks and replacement parts on hand.

The shipping game is also kind of a crapshoot. Some days we get our incoming shipments on time, other days they get to the loading dock AFTER our outgoing shipments have left for the day (i.e. after 4PM). FedEx and UPS Ground both complain about lacking drivers, so we have to adapt to the new crap factor.

 

[George Lucas]

Better then fighting retards at the store during a HAPPENING or coming home with no meat.
The frozen meat is bad meme is because people buy pre-frozen cheap crap and improperly keep it in 20F fridge freezer.

Buy good cuts fresh and vacuum seal it and date it. FIFO. Have a real deep freezer. -10 at least. Its will come out just as good as the day it was frozen.

View attachment 2563931

I don't vaccum seal meat. I just put it in a plain freezer bag. Sure, the surface of red meat turns brown, but that doesn't affect the quality of the flavor at all.

Most people just don't know how to fucking cook. Pro-tip: completely thaw and dry your fucking meat before you cook it.

 

[contradiction of terns]

Sauce? This is now the second time I have heard this claim, and no one ever links me the source.

I felt really bad because nobody ever offered you the sauce, so I went and found it. Here is a website that tracks 'missing workers' that has stats for the 1.5 million figure. The Wallstreet Journal suggests the missing workers are largely women (specifically mothers) who have decided to stay at home with their children rather than to return to the workforce.

There is an upside to this situation that isn't being discussed much yet, and that's the reversal of WW II (and post WW II) policies that pushed women into the workforce and increased our reliance on globalization over local production.

Uk has reduced the requirements and training periods for new HGV drivers, with some companies offering training as part of the package. HGV drivers are now being paid £55k~ a year, roughly $100k.

With all of those containers sat in california, that will have a knock-on effect of containers getting back, to be filled up again. But what of the goods inside? It's OK saying your plastic shit will be 6 weeks late, but any perishables will be binned, right?

I am going to be breaking out a few sections in the OP to discuss what the supply chain crisis looks like in various countries, and what shortages those countries are expected to see. If you have anymore info, or happen to know other British Kiwis (or even just other Brits) who might know something, please try to share (or encourage your friends to share if they are British Kiwis). Fair warning, I will probably add this into the OP and credit you.

I work in aviation repair and my company subcontracts for Pratt and Whitney. A lot of the items we overhaul need piece parts that simply aren't in stock and/or have obscene lead times. A commonly used flange blank from the OEM has a lead time of NINETY FUCKING DAYS right now for whatever inscrutable reason. Ninety days for a $1300 hunk of inconel that needs further welding and machining to be serviceable.
The parts we turn for overhaul are generally needed in no greater than three weeks, accounting for vendor repairs and the shipping associated with them. It's gotten to the point that we are looking at having the parts fabricated locally just to have blanks and replacement parts on hand.

The shipping game is also kind of a crapshoot. Some days we get our incoming shipments on time, other days they get to the loading dock AFTER our outgoing shipments have left for the day (i.e. after 4PM). FedEx and UPS Ground both complain about lacking drivers, so we have to adapt to the new crap factor.

I'm definitely adding this to the OP (with a credit). I've tapped an acquaintance that works for the DoT, specifically in relation to the airlines, but any information on how this is playing out with the airlines is extremely helpful. Do you think that Christmas will see passenger planes limiting their seating, or even switching over to transporting goods? I'm having a tough time imagining the average person being able to outbid a big business for space on an airplane.

 

[Sir Lurksalot]

I have a friend in trucking who has been negatively affected by the DEF sensor failures and part shortages. Through him, I've more or less kept up with the DEF emulator front. There appear to be multiple independent open-source projects that use an Arduino (naturally) to emulate the sensor over a CAN bus shield. This is NOT legal, to be clear, and does not replace the functionality of the sensor. You can still fuck things up by running your DEF tank dry. Anyhow, here are a few links with updates on the topic. There is a rambling legal discussion in the last link, the first two are about the emulators, where to get parts, and how to build one.

DEF Emulator Workaround

Emulator Project Resources

Discussion on the Legality/Liability of Using The Emulators

 

[Jimbobaggins]

I'm definitely adding this to the OP (with a credit). I've tapped an acquaintance that works for the DoT, specifically in relation to the airlines, but any information on how this is playing out with the airlines is extremely helpful. Do you think that Christmas will see passenger planes limiting their seating, or even switching over to transporting goods? I'm having a tough time imagining the average person being able to outbid a big business for space on an airplane.

United Airlines has already been using their passenger planes as dedicated cargo planes. They flew over 13,400 dedicated cargo flights, doubling their cargo revenue to 2 Billon dollars. What most people don't know about passenger jets is they actually can carry cargo below in belly of the plane. Right now tons of older widebody passenger planes such as 767 are being converted to cargo planes. But that all takes time and with cargo airlines needing more there's still a backlog for cargo. Plus I've even seen a organ donation come out of one of the planes I've flew in. The only reason airlines would limit seating is because of COVID, not the planes themselves. I've been in hangers at a massive maintenance hub for Delta Airlines and they already have massive 30-40 foot tall warehouse full of parts.

 

[Car Won't Crank]

United Airlines has already been using their passenger planes as dedicated cargo planes. They flew over 13,400 dedicated cargo flights, doubling their cargo revenue to 2 Billon dollars. What most people don't know about passenger jets is they actually can carry cargo below in belly of the plane. Right now tons of older widebody passenger planes such as 767 are being converted to cargo planes. But that all takes time and with cargo airlines needing more there's still a backlog for cargo. Plus I've even seen a organ donation come out of one of the planes I've flew in. The only reason airlines would limit seating is because of COVID, not the planes themselves. I've been in hangers at a massive maintenance hub for Delta Airlines and they already have massive 30-40 foot tall warehouse full of parts.

By convert, are you saying they're ripping out half of the passenger seats to make it a sort of combi without the door? Otherwise all that space in the passenger deck goes to waste, no?

 

[Jimbobaggins]

By convert, are you saying they're ripping out half of the passenger seats to make it a sort of combi without the door? Otherwise all that space in the passenger deck goes to waste, no?

They're just taking out the seats and putting in smaller boxed cargo, when they need them again for passengers they can just put the seats back in. Though many places are also converting old passenger planes by cutting the door out as well for a pure cargo plane.

 

[Shig O'nella]

UK TV morning news is full of fear and panic over fuel rationing because BP and Tesco can't get enough drivers to deliver to their forecourts, so they're limiting some station deliveries.

I'd sort of wondered why there was a short queue at the petrol station last night at near midnight, but put it down to people just being fucking odd.

Link to a news story, for reference.

 

[contradiction of terns]

UK TV morning news is full of fear and panic over fuel rationing because BP and Tesco can't get enough drivers to deliver to their forecourts, so they're limiting some station deliveries.

I'd sort of wondered why there was a short queue at the petrol station last night at near midnight, but put it down to people just being fucking odd.

Link to a news story, for reference.

I've archived the article you provided and will be adding it to the OP. It sounds like this has maybe been going on a little longer in Britain? The Brit guy in the one video in the OP showed photos of empty shelves and had a few other videos about like... seasonable vegetable shortages, I think?

Tell me all your economic horror stories!

Edit: Also big thanks to all my train and plane autists. I'm not super knowledgeable in those areas and the news doesn't seem to be talking much about either.

 

[mr.moon1488]

Better then fighting retards at the store during a HAPPENING or coming home with no meat.
The frozen meat is bad meme is because people buy pre-frozen cheap crap and improperly keep it in 20F fridge freezer.

Buy good cuts fresh and vacuum seal it and date it. FIFO. Have a real deep freezer. -10 at least. Its will come out just as good as the day it was frozen.

View attachment 2563931

Just not keeping meat in a frost-free freezer helps tremendously, particularly for steaks.

 

[Daddy's Little Kitten]

Simple, we use messenger pigeons, or is there a shortage of pigeons too?

In all seriousness, since the ching chong flu, there have been products that have gotten harder to find. I went to a Walgreens yesterday and they hardly had any merchandise. Most things here are imported, plus with truckers sometimes striking, it paints a bleak picture.

Oh, and there may be a hurricane.

 

[Shig O'nella]

I can give personal opinion from shopping twice a week and yes, there's shortages. Nothing major or hugely alarming - the odd item here and there is simply not available for a couple of weeks, then they reappear and other things disappear - but it is definitely noticeable. Lidl has signs all over the store apologising for any missing goods and saying they're working hard to get around the supply problems, Tesco actually has printed labels on the shelves (where the prices normally go) saying when the next shipment of whatever is missing is due in. That has been going on for months - noticed it back in March when they had a run of no cat food.

Doesn't seem to be any pattern to it though - stuff from UK suppliers, stuff from Europe, and stuff shipped in from elsewhere all seem to be equally affected.

 

[Lemmingwise]

I don't see any supply shortages here in netherlands, fyi.

I do see a steady increase of meat prices.

Having talked to farmers, some had expanded barns for meat production, but weren't allowed to fill them with new CO2 laws, limiting livestock to the amount owned in the previous year.

In general it seems to me that there is a lot of political pressure against meat production in various ways, particularly in NL, which despite being tiny is one of the biggest net agricultural exporters in the world.

I know that NL is hit harder with CO2 laws than the Germans were.

 

[contradiction of terns]

I don't see any supply shortages here in netherlands, fyi.

I do see a steady increase of meat prices.

Having talked to farmers, some had expanded barns for meat production, but weren't allowed to fill them with new CO2 laws, limiting livestock to the amount owned in the previous year.

In general it seems to me that there is a lot of political pressure against meat production in various ways, particularly in NL, which despite being tiny is one of the biggest net agricultural exporters in the world.

I know that NL is hit harder with CO2 laws than the Germans were.

That's a bit eerie since Biden has said he actively wants to break up the American meat industry and appears to be gearing up to scapegoat them for the upcoming meat shortages.

 

[Lemmingwise]

That's a bit eerie since Biden has said he actively wants to break up the American meat industry and appears to be gearing up to scapegoat them for the upcoming meat shortages.

The anti-meat agenda has built up for a long time. Its pretty obvious they want to take meat from us, and this has been in the making for decades at this point.

We're probably in the last decade of meat.