2021 Virginia State election - Federal Beaurocracy and National Establishment vs. Everyone else.

Honestly, I was pretty blackpilled about this election earlier this month, but I'm slowly and cautiously becoming a bit more optimistic. The fact that McAuliffe is hiring a Clintonista election lawyer shows, more than anything, that the dude is afraid.

Youngkin has run a really smart campaign. I think keeping Trump at arm's length has taken some of the wind out of the Dem's 'HURR DRUMPF' strategy, and he really hit the jackpot making education the foremost issue, rather than COVID or BLM. McAuliffe really handed him a lot of ammo in that last debate.
 
Welp, now we’ve got multiple counts of a male student sexually assaulting other boys at a Loudoun Co middle school.


Hey it isn’t just genderspecials who feel empowered, the gay boys feel empowered too! Err unless this is a transboy, lol, who can even say?
See, it's not just troons who do this kind of stuff, bigot. That's why it is still okay to let boys in the girls' restroom. A few girls getting raped is an acceptable price to pay for troon equality.

This is the email the school board sent out today about it:
https://twitter.com/chrissyclark_/status/1453830527664934914

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"Something out of the ordinary..." Like, hello, we are not playing 20 questions with this.
My kid had a teacher that was arrested in an online pedophile sting. They sent us an email saying an event had to be cancelled because the teacher had a "personal crisis". Not once did they ever send out anything that addressed what happened or talk to any of the kids in the class to find out if there were other victims. I had to read about it on the local news website.

They can't cover it up when they arrest an adult. A student predator is worse because they can cover it up. Just imagine how many other students out there might be too afraid or ashamed to come forward (especially given that everyone is calling out the dad's daughter for being slutty) and parents won't have any clue because they don't know the identity of the accused or if their kid has any classes with them. It's shameful. Even if the parents don't want to file formal charges, they'd still like to know so they could get their kid some counseling. You don't have any right to keep that kind of information from parents.

I think protecting the identity of kids when they do non-violent stuff is fine. You can do things like petty theft, vandalism, etc. and still turn out to be a decent human being someday when you grow up a little. You should never be able to hide the identify of a kid who does a violent crime, though. People have a right to know so they can keep their guard up when they are released at age 18.

All this conviction from the Dems that there is not one single non-Republican out there who is responding to Youngkin recognizing their concerns who might take this statement from Swalwell as an accusation that they too are racists desperate to say “the n word,” and who will then have to consider that perhaps a whole lot of what the modern Dems put out is similarly untrue. And they’re not considering that when that happens en masse across a voting population, it’s what those in the business call a “game changer.”

At some point people were bound to decide it’s more important to protect their kids than to avoid Republican cooties, guys. We’ve heard it before and it’s boring. You overplayed your hand. We don’t want our kids radicalized to hate their families, their country, and themselves. We don’t want our kids taught that male and female are imaginary and they are required as part of the natural development of a human to begin considering during pre-K if they want to be a boy or a girl or neither. And we do not want our 8-yos taught what porn is, and what blowjobs and rimming are, and the argument that you HAVE to because they’re going to consume it anyway so best that you tell them? So if I am a responsible parent who keeps my child off the internet and away from this, you’re going to erase those efforts and remove their innocence yourselves?

The Republicans don’t care if I agree with them about abortion, they’re fine teaming with me where we agree and leaving me alone to go our own ways where we don’t. The purity tests do not exist there. Meanwhile Dems demand 100% unquestioning support for whatever degenerate nonsense from whichever deranged minority they have scheduled for this morning’s entertainment, or else they state they do not want my vote, period.

So now I switched to Independent. Who did this? You did, Dems. You did this.

I hope that the Republicans begin finding themselves the millions of Dems who are parents and who feel this exact same way, and let them speak this: fellow Dems, don’t let them convince you that you have to sacrifice your kids to own the Repugs. You can work with the Repugs to protect kids, and against them on everything else. They’ll allow it. THEY are now the party of reason, to each their own, and in a true clown world twist I would’ve never seen coming in 2006, they are now the party toward which reality has profound bias. Are they crazy in ways? Sure. Unscientific? Absolutely. But I don’t see them trying to take custody from parents who do not wish to have their children’s genitalia mutilated for the stochastic sexual gratification of adult trannies, nor do I see them standing in front of an image of a city burning to the ground and calling it a peaceful protest.
Totally agree.

The last local election was the first time ever I voted Republican. Sometimes I've voted 3rd party or written in a candidate as a protest vote, but I've never been willing to go full Republican until now. I've had to admit that the crazy fundies weren't so crazy after all. Slippery slope is real and somebody needs to stop it before it's too late (if it isn't already). Some of the earlier liberal stuff (like gay rights) seemed harmless to me. Of course they would stop there. Anyone claiming it would open the gates to other degeneracy was just paranoid. Boy was I wrong and I'm not too proud to admit that.

I don't even care about abortion rights anymore. Maybe not being able to have an abortion will make young women (and men)-- who have access to lots of birth control options -- make some responsible choices. If you've had multiple abortions, the last one should probably include a hysterectomy to correct your terminal stupidity. If you keep fathering kids you don't take care of, you ought to be snipped.

Feminism is dead now anyway. Sex work is empowering? Men can give birth? Drag Queen story hour and male beauty gurus on YouTube teaching you how to look like a tranny? No thank you. At least old school patriarchy doesn't tell me they are better at being a woman than I am or that being a whore is a noble profession.

Dems don't support the working class anymore. They don't support the First Amendment. They don't support real women's rights. They don't believe in a colorblind society and equal opportunity. There's no reason for me to vote for them now and lots of reason for me to vote against them. Hell, I'd even vote for Trump now instead of a Democrat. That's how much they have driven me away from the party.
 
Honestly, I was pretty blackpilled about this election earlier this month, but I'm slowly and cautiously becoming a bit more optimistic. The fact that McAuliffe is hiring a Clintonista election lawyer shows, more than anything, that the dude is afraid.
McAuliffe was always part of Clinton-land. He probably would have been Hillary's veep choice if he didn't have that potential scandal break out in early 2016.
 

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This election is Youngkin's to lose. Which means he will probably find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in true GOP fashion.
Youngkin's race to lose? McAuliffe has led in 90% of the polls and, let me remind you, non-Trump year polling has still proven to be largely accurate.


I'm not saying it's a done deal but I know which one I'd feel more comfortable putting money on.
 
Youngkin's race to lose? McAuliffe has led in 90% of the polls and, let me remind you, non-Trump year polling has still proven to be largely accurate.


I'm not saying it's a done deal but I know which one I'd feel more comfortable putting money on.
Youngkin currently has a narrow lead though, and all the polls that show McAuliffe ahead only have him ahead by 1 point, well within the margin of error. I standby my opinion that the momentum in this race is on Youngkin's side, whether that will be enough to carry him across the finish line and past any Dem "electoral fortification" or not remains to be seen.
 
Mealy Mouth Spittle said:
Dems don't support the working class anymore.

They never supported the "working" class. Ever. You may imagine that they did, and surely they did their best to lead the "working" class to that belief through manipulation & propaganda, but it is not and never has been true.
 
Marc Elias isn't just any Clintonista lawyer, either. He's a hatchetman for Perkins-Coie and their top attack dog. I last saw him popping down to AZ to try and muddy the waters on the audit there.

Bringing him in doesn't say much about the Dems' confidence levels.
 
Marc Elias isn't just any Clintonista lawyer, either. He's a hatchetman for Perkins-Coie and their top attack dog. I last saw him popping down to AZ to try and muddy the waters on the audit there.

Bringing him in doesn't say much about the Dems' confidence levels.
I guess Marc Elias will also bring a truckload of dead voters coming to vote as well.
 
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In two polls. Out of 25. And one of them, the one that is giving him the average lead, is wildly out of step with all the others.

And that doesn't even include the poll that just dropped, the only one so far today, that shows McAuliffe up by one.
You do realize that the average of polls on the RCP site is based off of only the last month or so worth of polling for a reason, right? Also, McAuliffe being up by one or tied on polls that have a three to four points worth of margin of error when before he was ahead by something like five or six points is simply further proof to me that Youngkin is the one with the momentum here. Also that fox poll previously had McAuliffe ahead by five points, the fact that they are now showing Youngkin being ahead by any amount at all is even more proof that Youngkin has the momentum in this election.
 
Statistically, this race is tied.

I‘m betting a few dollars on Youngkin, though. McAuliffe’s wearing the school board albatross while the Biden ship is well underwater.

Unless Ds make massive turnout on Election Day, the independents will swing it R. They’ve decided most Virginia elections—and right now they’re energized for Youngkin.

The early voting count is also good evidence. Dems aren‘t performing as projected for a D win.
 
You do realize that the average of polls on the RCP site is based off of only the last month or so worth of polling for a reason, right? Also, McAuliffe being up by one or tied on polls that have a three to four points worth of margin of error when before he was ahead by something like five or six points is simply further proof to me that Youngkin is the one with the momentum here. Also that fox poll previously had McAuliffe ahead by five points, the fact that they are now showing Youngkin being ahead by any amount at all is even more proof that Youngkin has the momentum in this election.
If you go back only a full month its 8-1 McAuliffe (and 3 ties). I think they only count either 12 or 14 days but thats still a single Youngkin lead against a few ties and McAuliffe leads. I agree that Youngkin has momentum but I don't think he has enough. The specific reason is that a lot of NOVA is "inside the beltway" and thus ISTB issues that "real America" doesn't care about actually matter in that part of the state. I hope McAuliffe loses, but I don't think its going to happen. You also need to keep in mind that, due to mail in voting, a lot of people, specifically on McAuliffe's side, have already voted and its too late for them to change their minds or get discouraged and not show up. I follow DKE comments sections (a good place to listen to low level campaign staff gossip if you can shift through the cheerleading and delusional bullshit) and they say that they've started hitting their mailed ballot margins in NOVA and the Dem trending parts of central Virginia but might be having a little trouble in minority areas down-state. Its going to be up to Republicans to out-do them on election day.
 
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Here's an interesting tidbit where Bob Beckel admitted in the 2014 Virginia Senate race that the votes would come in for the Democratic candidate.

This is in Fairfax county by the way.


Also bad news.

https://twitter.com/ProfMJCleveland/status/1454159768038354951?t=7J1TyDM1NRp0ODFXgtg_hA&s=19 (https://archive.md/b4RBx)

FC42WzaXEAUVyZ-
 
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If you go back only a full month its 8-1 McAuliffe (and 3 ties). I think they only count either 12 or 14 days but thats still a single Youngkin lead against a few ties and McAuliffe leads. I agree that Youngkin has momentum but I don't think he has enough. The specific reason is that a lot of NOVA is "inside the beltway" and thus ISTB issues that "real America" doesn't care about actually matter in that part of the state. I hope McAuliffe loses, but I don't think its going to happen. You also need to keep in mind that, due to mail in voting, a lot of people, specifically on McAuliffe's side, have already voted and its too late for them to change their minds or get discouraged and not show up. I follow DKE comments sections (a good place to listen to low level campaign staff gossip if you can shift through the cheerleading and delusional bullshit) and they say that they've started hitting their mailed ballot margins in NOVA and the Dem trending parts of central Virginia but might be having a little trouble in minority areas down-state. Its going to be up to Republicans to out-do them on election day.
Interesting information, personally, I think the momentum that Youngkin has is enough to at least win the election, the fuckups with the handling of the school scandals in Loudon county are precisely the sort of thing that even the swamp critters in NOVA will get upset enough to either not vote for McAuliffe on election day(the early mail-in ballots that have been already cast are a different matter, ofc)or even vote for Youngkin. As for GOP turnout? I think it will be pretty high, since we're headed into the mid-terms and the desire to punish the Dems for their bullshit is growing.

Now my personal concern is what funny business the Dems in VA might try and pull, and if Youngkin can get enough turnout to make said funny business irrelevant. We'll see what happens in November, I'm not making any definitive calls either way.
 
You know what, I am changing my mind, there were several polls released today that haven't made it into the databases yet, multiple ones of which show Youngkin leads. DKE is also in full on fifty-fifty mode now and I'd also publicly rate it as a pure toss-up. Its extremely close and we don't know how turnout, already mailed ballots, late breaking issues (school stuff and today's tiki torch thing) are going to play out but its a pure tossup to me now.

If forced to choose, I'd still bet McAuliffe but thats because I am a massive pessimist (though there are also multiple reasons to say that either one has a secret edge.)
 
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