In the end, whether Trump gets in or not is kinda secondary. The only real thing that will determine is the decibel of the reeeing and the degree to which they are actively fucked with.
The Republican Party is now the Trump Party. As long as Trump lives, he is kingmaker. And the rank-and-file Republicans grow hungrier and hungrier for wins now that they know what it feels like again.
Because we're at the point of ideological shift. Normally, every 30 years or so the "primary" philosophy or method of governing changes. We saw this when we moved from FDR/Atlee style state spending of the 40s to late 70s to Reganism/Thatcherism, which morphed into Globalism/"Third Way".
The problem is the Globalist/third wayists are, for whatever reason in the US, not giving up power after the philosophy is clearly exhausted. Instead a tiny minority of hyper "educated" and well off people have completely captured the main democratic party body and are basically parasitically killing it
and don't know why. What we're seeing from Trumpism is a form of soft nationalism, in which international co-operation and trade is treated more akin to a necessary evil rather than the absolute fling shit for chink slaves to make. This has an appeal to all the people left behind by the losses that began in the 80s and 90s (arguably a number of these industries simply reached "their time") but massively accelerated in the 2000's.
In the UK, thanks to the genuine threat of the Brexit Party the Tories
had to adapt or face either being in a coalition government with Nigel Farage as Deputy PM or being the party which tends to vanish every century or so in British Politics. It's why and how Boris recognised the snakes in his midst with the "independant Conservatives" which he dramatically threw out of the ruling party. Absolutely all of these guys promptly got told to fuck off by the voters, and similar things are happenign in the Republicans just
incredibly slowly.
'Tis a shame what happened to Tulsi. I wonder if the Republicans would let her party hop without asking for anything or if they'd demand a full rebuke of the Left as a condition for being welcomed in.
No, they'd probably make her crawl through broken glass instead of just quietly shifting a tiny bit culturally to let her into the "big tent" which is a side effect of the hyper-adverserial nature of the two-party system in the US.
The one area in this otherwise good report where they show ignorance or a lack of understanding is the economy question. First off, an obligatory "it's the economy, stupid". Secondly:
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These pollsters, at least, don't understand why Dems are losing on this topic. Suburban voters don't care about your fucking "X amount of jobs created this month" statistics or your "the unemployment rate is Y" figures, national level statistics are meaningless to them. It's aboout their pocketbooks, it's about how much gas costs or groceries cost, it's about how their town or their county is doing economically. Blasting statistics in their face won't convince them the economy's actually fine, they'll just roll their eyes.
Same happened during the Brexit debate and some poor bastards still keep fighting the last war, they screamed about job losses, the plague, war, threatening to block Nugubu from coming to play footie and all this other bollocks and it resulted in eye rolling to the point it's amazing voters didnt get dizzy. What's hilarious is, you still get these formerly smug cunts now whimper out "Well, both sides lied..." I've started checking to see if the fence pole they've now rammed up their arse sticks out their mouths.
They could see the lack of manufacturing and good jobs versus the shitty service and barista jobs, and oh so many of their other talking points came across as posh and incincere. The BBC once talked to a lesbian "prepper couple" in mid wales, who were just.... buying 2 weeks worth of stuff and muttering about how they really liked French Mustard and bemoaned that it would get more expensive.
It was like looking at two different worlds, one who were comfortable with the current system which was fucking over their fellow brits competitiveness on the jobs and manufacturing markets, versus some posh carpet muncher and her fucking mustard.
It's really no wonder people despise the media and there's an increasing campaign to make the BBC either fuck off, or become a netflix subscription model so its optional.
It's also no wonder the UK's first big post-brexit act is to enact 20 freeports around England in its most deprived areas to try and boost the economy and manufacturing.
It's about jobs too. Even on a local level.
Because these shitbags have a long, storied history of bringing call center, fass fud, and Walmart jobs while being as hostile as they can towards manufacturers, logistics, and many professional tier jobs that pay a living wage with GOOD benefits and saying they brought allllll these jobs!
While patting themselves on the back and smirking.
They seem to think any job is a good job, rather than considering you do need a core of "good jobs" to support and encourage decent jobs which then go on to encourage and support the service sector. It's increasinly obvious it's not sustainable to just try and make everyone work in a service sector job, you still need a core of more good and decent jobs, even if those are relatively high tech jobs. You've still got to have them.
Making 10,000 shitty jobs goes far shorter a distance on a wider economy than a thousand good ones.
I think they underestimate the reluctance of people to openly say that they are against CRT. I really do. I think privately a lot of people say that, but they sincerely don't want to be seen as racists (because they really aren't -- they've just been raised with the idea that being color blind is the ideal and the new "you're racist if you don't see race" is confusing to them). I think even if they are okay with having to endure "white privilege" lectures at work, they aren't that keen on their kids getting the message that there is something wrong with having white skin. And if you can't trust that the teachers won't let your child secretly switch genders at school and refuse to disclose that information to you -- how can you trust that they are teaching about race in an up and up manner? You can't.
Also, I find it interesting that they take pains to state that nobody said Biden was unfit to lead. Again, I think they underestimate the reluctance of people to admit they think Biden is too mentally gone to be President. Whether that is because admitting that means that they screwed up and voted for a guy who was too old to do the job or that something should be done about it or because they fear that the very unlikeable VP will assume the presidency, I don't know. But surely it has to cross the mind of even the most fervent Biden supporter that he is not performing as well as he did even a few months ago. While campaigning, it was obvious he was old, but he could still speak coherently even if he had a few gaffes. He can barely string together an entire sentence now. I can't believe people don't know that. I can believe that they would be reluctant to say it, but they know. Everybody knows.
The "Shy Tory Voter" is a known UK phenomenon in polling to the point there's complex algorythms that are now baked into any polling done. They know people lie about intending to vote Labour to just keep the screaming ninnies from their door and instead pollsters look at secondary data to determine which way you're likely to vote in the privacy of the polling booth.
We're probably seeing that same "shy" phenomena in the US, especially as people like 1776 begin to bring sunlight onto the grubby school district posts which have long been the preserve of democrats and are now increasingly the first outpost of the lunatics who want pedo teachers and to allow rapist students to go off to rape again instead of hurling them at the nearest Policeman.