Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

[Overly Serious]

government of course

I don't know the "of course" is warranted. So many of the organizations that seem to be running things aren't a government these days I had to ask. At this point I wouldn't be surprised to learn it goes straight to the UN, or the IMF or gods help us - direct to the Atlantic Council. But anyway, a question remains - which govt? Presumably the German govt. isn't just adding on a tax to the fuel it buys and then taking it off again. So cui bono?

 

[Quindoll]

I took it to be a comment that in a market of soaring energy prices and foreign energy dependence Germany is taking actions that make the situation worse rather than better.

Oof! That I did not know. I bet a lot of other people don't either. If there's something that could stand a bit more effort to make the general public aware of it would be how much of the cost is CO2 tax. So, naive question no doubt, but who gets the money for these certificates?

True, true. It's just that the power plants do not produce energy out of thin air, but by burning coal, gas and so on. And the higher price of coal/gas caused this. As long as there is no short supply of energy, that is not an issue. And the capacity for power production is there. It will just be distributed to less plants.

Regarding the CO2 certificates. The money goes to the country which got the certificate allocated. The income generated from them should be used for climate friendly projects and so on. But that is a rather theoretic construct.
But not all certificates are given out for money. Some are distributed for free to industries that take part in the certificate trade and others are sold in a bit auction process. So if your company would get 100 certificates allocated for free, but you only use 50, you can sell the rest. Thus there is an incentivize to use CO2 like every other resource that has a price fixed on it.

 

[DumbDude42]

So cui bono?

all the different govt institutions that are involved in the scheme get paid handsomely for their """work"""

the end result of it is just more money and power in the hands of the political class while the general population suffers and pays the bills

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

I don't know where's a good place to go if you want to survive, but getting out of Germany sounds like a smart move. This can't be good...

View attachment 2796962

It's batshit insane. The sunniest city of note in Germany is Freiburg im Breisgau with a little under 1900 sunshine hours a year. For comparison, Seattle gets almost 300 more sunshine hours a year and Vancouver (Canada) gets around 100 more sunshine hours. In 11 months of the year, Seattle and Vancouver are sunnier than Freiburg im Breisgau.

Germany wants an entirely green environmental policy. They have almost no actual storage capacity (pumped storage, or technology that doesn't exist now like super flywheels). Their green energy will take up insane space since they seriously want to build solar power in a place cloudier than the Pacific Northwest and don't have much of a seacoast to use windmills. This means they're Russia's bitch since without Russian natural gas they'd all freeze to death. I cannot think of a stupider energy policy than Germany, they make California look like geniuses.

10k in copper is 2500 pounds. Where you storing that?

Well, I'm not because I haven't acquired it yet. I was actually dumb enough to trade in almost every single penny (along with all my other change I'd gathered since I was a little kid) when I was in college for alcohol money. But nowadays I hoard it. Fill jars with pennies of the correct dates. Stash whatever actual copper you can find. I'd recommend a copper paperweight (just search copper ingot and buy the 1 pound, the premium they charge is insane) since in addition to being a paperweight, copper is antimicrobial so you're basically cleaning your dirty fingers.

For copper, it's not about money, it's about utility. You don't need too much. But when hyperinflation hits, a pre-1982 penny will be worth something since it's an actual US coin, guaranteed not to be counterfeit (since who counterfeits a generic penny lol), and can be melted down for something useful. The melt value on these pre-1982 pennies is like 1.5-1.8 cents usually. If copper prices ever get fucked (and a lot of copper comes from Russia and Latin America, one coup/hostile regime can fuck up world prices), that could double or triple. But I probably will never (barring insane opportunity) hold more than a few hundred pounds of copper, or maybe a few hundred dollars worth of old pennies.

If you go for physical precious metals, go for the once that have, like gold, a high value and low volume. I prefer to get shares of the companies that work with these metals. So mines, manufacturers and so on.

Silver is good too since junk silver has actual value (assuming you buy your own country's junk silver). If you're hoarding it for both the metal and as an emergency reserve, an actual currency will serve you better as a reserve. Pre-1964 quarters and older half dollars (I can't recall the date they took the silver out of the half-dollar) are legit coins that are functional in a hyper-inflation scenario and work as a silver speculation tool. I'm pretty convinced silver is where it's really at, not gold (although gold is still very good), since the price is artificially kept low but it's in increasingly high demand

All other precious metals are inferior since they do not have the utility as a hyperinflation/emergency tool. Platinum, ruthenium, palladium, etc. are nice and will be increasingly used in medicine/alloys in the future, but not as much as silver, and they look too similar to silver so you might have people buying up those metals for way cheaper than they're worth.

 

[DumbDude42]

It's batshit insane. The sunniest city of note in Germany is Freiburg im Breisgau with a little under 1900 sunshine hours a year. For comparison, Seattle gets almost 300 more sunshine hours a year and Vancouver (Canada) gets around 100 more sunshine hours. In 11 months of the year, Seattle and Vancouver are sunnier than Freiburg im Breisgau.

Germany wants an entirely green environmental policy. They have almost no actual storage capacity (pumped storage, or technology that doesn't exist now like super flywheels). Their green energy will take up insane space since they seriously want to build solar power in a place cloudier than the Pacific Northwest and don't have much of a seacoast to use windmills. This means they're Russia's bitch since without Russian natural gas they'd all freeze to death. I cannot think of a stupider energy policy than Germany, they make California look like geniuses.

the only way germany could ever achieve low carbon energy is nuclear, which they were in a decent position for a while back. they had good plants running, highly qualified engineers and operators, and an industrial base to build/maintain these plants at a high level of quality. they even have uranium deposits, east germany had a uranium mining operation up and running until it fell.

but nah, gotta push more fearmongering about muh scary green radiation and destroy it all, so now they're gonna be putins little bitch for all eternity.

 

[Hippopatumus]

The fact that nuclear isn't being aggressively built is all you need to know that the issues with the economy are purposely self-inflicted to give the folks in charge leverage over their subjects. It's about control, nothing more.

BBB is estimated at 3 trillion dollars.

A nuke plant costs 10 billion at the very high end to build.

That means BBB alone is enough to build 300 nuke plants in America.

That would be more than enough to power the entire country with clean energy. You could actually build half or a third as many, stick them in the middle of the desert, and build HVDC lines to the rest of the country with the leftover cash if anyone was worried about putting them near population centers.

So just on the funds from BBB alone, we could replace our entire electrical grid with clean energy. We don't need to develop better solar panels or wind turbines, the answer is here and has been the entire time.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

The fact that nuclear isn't being aggressively built is all you need to know that the issues with the economy are purposely self-inflicted to give the folks in charge leverage over their subjects. It's about control, nothing more.

Well yeah, since these are the same guys who outsource critical parts of the supply chain to 2-3 countries all so they can ship it to China on highly-polluting diesel ships that lie about their emissions to assemble the part and then ship it to the US/Europe/wherever on said highly-polluting diesel ships.

So just on the funds from BBB alone, we could replace our entire electrical grid with clean energy. We don't need to develop better solar panels or wind turbines, the answer is here and has been the entire time.

I'm not sure if the price for all of those hypothetical nuclear power plants is cheaper than renewable energy plus storage capacity. Renewables are fucking cheap, the real cost is the storage which doesn't get talked about much.

 

[Hippopatumus]

Go run the basic numbers on the materials needed to build the solar panels, windmills, and batteries at the level needed to provide capacity to the entire USA.

It's not cheaper, and worse than that we literally do not have the raw materials needed to pull it off.

 

[Overly Serious]

Can somebody explain to me what this means?

After Years Of Worry, Libor Exit Goes Without Hitch | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Can somebody explain to me what this means?

After Years Of Worry, Libor Exit Goes Without Hitch | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I'll gladly try if you can be more specific.

 

[Overly Serious]

I'll gladly try if you can be more specific.

It's hard to be specific when you're as ignorant as I am. I once read up on what Libor is, I have a very layman's understanding of this. It just felt to me reading this that it sounds like a very big deal, something that would be significant. I guess my question is - is it? Does this factor into the current Doom Posting at all? Does it slot into the conspiracies and speculation we're all indulging in here? Or is it really that banal. Just seems like something that is an integral part of "the System". What is it being replaced by and why?

 

[Simple Moving Average]

It just felt to me reading this that it sounds like a very big deal, something that would be significant. I guess my question is - is it? Does this factor into the current Doom Posting at all? Does it slot into the conspiracies and speculation we're all indulging in here? Or is it really that banal.

Unrelated.

Just seems like something that is an integral part of "the System". What is it being replaced by and why?

It is. It's being replaced due to lack of trust due to rigging. The replacement is less liquid currently which may cause issues and exacerbate the problems we're currently having. Doesn't have to, but it might.

Hope that answers your question.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Interest rates are starting to spike absent any move by the Fed, stock futures are sliding along with it. This reactor is starting to look dangerously unstable.

 

[Audit]

I watched the Vanguard annual CEO update last night. They're advocating shoring money up in safe bonds and to expect a year of only a few percent growth in the stock market. They didn't expect a collapse though.

Personally, I'm taking this as a sign that any money to be made this year will be in shorting the right stocks and pre-emptively knowing which will be deemed safe.

 

[Overly Serious]

I watched the Vanguard annual CEO update last night. They're advocating shoring money up in safe bonds and to expect a year of only a few percent growth in the stock market. They didn't expect a collapse though.

Personally, I'm taking this as a sign that any money to be made this year will be in shorting the right stocks and pre-emptively knowing which will be deemed safe.

I actually have some money I could invest. This hasn't been my usual circumstances but I'm very happy to have got here. But unfortunately I don't really know how to invest it - I can't stick it in a saving's account because my £10k will get me a return of £100 at the end of a year if that. I'm afraid to put it in any kind of stock market fund because I think we might see a crash in the very near future - everything seems pumped crazy high. I could buy some physical gold but that's more or a hedge against massive collapse than anything that would actually return a profit. I don't know anything about bonds.

Interest rates will have to go up sometime. But right now I feel trapped with what I've worked for just sitting there being gnawed away at by the rats of inflation.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

I actually have some money I could invest. This hasn't been my usual circumstances but I'm very happy to have got here. But unfortunately I don't really know how to invest it - I can't stick it in a saving's account because my £10k will get me a return of £100 at the end of a year if that. I'm afraid to put it in any kind of stock market fund because I think we might see a crash in the very near future - everything seems pumped crazy high. I could buy some physical gold but that's more or a hedge against massive collapse than anything that would actually return a profit. I don't know anything about bonds.

Interest rates will have to go up sometime. But right now I feel trapped with what I've worked for just sitting there being gnawed away at by the rats of inflation.

If you're interested in locking any of that money away in a relatively stable asset then gold is your best bet. Over a long enough time horizon in our current system gold always holds its value if not increases. If you're looking to make money shorting stocks or trading crypto good luck, just about everything is in a bubble, institutional investors aren't going to give you their honest answer either, they'll tell you one thing and then somehow magically end up on the right side of a trade which would've been completely contradictory to their previous supposed outlook.

You could always split your money between assets, or simply hold cash in hopes of a good buying opportunity. Inflation might get out of hand, I personally expect it to, but there are no guarantees. Don't FOMO into anything, more than likely you'll get burned. Really no one here can give you great advice, we're kind of in unprecedented times, and your opinion on the market will be dictated more than ever on 2 things; your faith and confidence in the FED, and where you think the world is headed in a general sense.

 

[Overly Serious]

your faith and confidence in the FED

Every bulletin from Jerome Powell should come with a laugh track.

But yes, I agree with all of your post. My problem is what you state, though - there's very little to have confidence in putting your money in to get a return. Only some moderately optimistic hedges like gold. Even then, it's going to cost you - buying and selling gold costs you a commission. I did some sums and figured out that it would cost me (iirc) around £500 to turn my money into gold now, sell it later and recoup my investment. That's assuming fees didn't change by the time I came to want to turn it back into money.

The system is rigged against small players.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

Every bulletin from Jerome Powell should come with a laugh track.

But yes, I agree with all of your post. My problem is what you state, though - there's very little to have confidence in putting your money in to get a return. Only some moderately optimistic hedges like gold. Even then, it's going to cost you - buying and selling gold costs you a commission. I did some sums and figured out that it would cost me (iirc) around £500 to turn my money into gold now, sell it later and recoup my investment. That's assuming fees didn't change by the time I came to want to turn it back into money.

The system is rigged against small players.

I thought there were no egregious taxes on gold in Britain? That really sucks if its the case.

>The system is rigged against small players.
Yes, but small player's shouldn't feel the need to invest, at least in a sane system. Small player's, aka wagies, should be able to live off their labor, its a testament to our broken monetary system that this is not the case. Middle class worker's increasingly can't make ends meet working full time, even childless millennials have a hard time paying the bills. Debt is ubiquitous, quite literally I may be the only person I know who is not in any amount of debt, and I live in a relatively nice area.

Usury is a word that needs to return to common vernacular.

 

[Overly Serious]

I thought there were no egregious taxes on gold in Britain? That really sucks if its the case.

I probably wasn't clear. I was talking about going to gold trading sites like https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/ I don't know a lot about gold trading, though I know I would want actual physical gold not paper gold, and I compared prices they'd sell coins and bars to you with the prices they buy back. This might be an amateur way of doing it? But the cost was how much I calculated I would lose buying gold from them and selling it back after the period of high inflation. You are right that so long as you buy the gold as actual currency it is immune to capital gains tax.

>The system is rigged against small players.
Yes, but small player's shouldn't feel the need to invest, at least in a sane system. Small player's, aka wagies, should be able to live off their labor, its a testament to our broken monetary system that this is not the case. Middle class worker's increasingly can't make ends meet working full time, even childless millennials have a hard time paying the bills. Debt is ubiquitous, quite literally I may be the only person I know who is not in any amount of debt, and I live in a relatively nice area.

Usury is a word that needs to return to common vernacular.

Yes, debt free is rare. I am close and technically I could become debt free right now, but I would lose all my liquidity. I'm hoping to become debt free in the future. Came about through a mix of hard work and living within my means, prioritizing savings. I don't have a lot to invest so I consider myself a small player. But what I have I don't want to see gnawed away by inflation.

Usury. I mean, I'm not against lending money at interest. It's a useful tool that helps entrepreneurs and home buyers. What I really want is a biblical term that condemns printing money - but I guess the Federal Reserve didn't exist when Moses was around.

 

[Audit]

Yes, but small player's shouldn't feel the need to invest, at least in a sane system. Small player's, aka wagies, should be able to live off their labor, its a testament to our broken monetary system that this is not the case. Middle class worker's increasingly can't make ends meet working full time, even childless millennials have a hard time paying the bills. Debt is ubiquitous, quite literally I may be the only person I know who is not in any amount of debt, and I live in a relatively nice area.

I blame the inability of wages to keep up with cost of living on necessities of life becoming subject to rampant market speculation and debt traps. Housing alone has shot up ~100% in my home town over the last decade. There's just not enough houses to meet demand in the places people want to live, partially thanks to ludicrous zoning laws that favor inefficient land usage in hot markets. Don't get me started on the cost of college. Remember, you're not allowed to declare bankruptcy on a school loan, so it's a safe money printer for investors at ~6% interest. Medical expenses are also being driven through the roof through middle men bribing congress to prevent competition and keep regulations/billing complicated.

Guess what I'm saying is that wall street is full of nutters and we let those nutters start running main street.