Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

I started this thread almost a year ago to ring the alarm bell over the massive amount of debt being accumulated. It's gotten worse.

Just look at this graph. LOOK AT IT.

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Provided "everything goes according to plan", non investment grade corporate debt will be 50% of the bond market in 2 years. Up from 10% of the bond market this year.

Think about what that means

Half of the bond market will be wrapped in debts that are at risk of default. HALF. And that Half will be twice again as much debt! A quadruple increase in corporate debt with half the quadruple being non investment grade! And oh by the way, all this crap is issued in USD that is inflating at a rate of 8% right now in the face of a supply chain break down, and a collapse in Asian property markets.

This has gone beyond monstrous at this point. We've blown past every historical scenario, including 1929.

That's nuts. Lots of companies could go under if they can't pay those debts, which seems pretty likely with that high of an amount.

I don't do corporate bonds. I use bonds for safety, so mine are all treasuries. Pays less, but that's okay. I have plenty of stocks for higher risk, higher return.

 

[mindlessobserver]

That's nuts. Lots of companies could go under if they can't pay those debts, which seems pretty likely with that high of an amount.

I don't do corporate bonds. I use bonds for safety, so mine are all treasuries. Pays less, but that's okay. I have plenty of stocks for higher risk, higher return.

Buy physical silver and/or gold. The economy died in 2008 and it does not know it's already dead. The only thing holding it together now is dreams and the infinite ability of the central banks to add 0's to an excel spreadsheet.

 

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

Buy physical silver and/or gold. The economy died in 2008 and it does not know it's already dead. The only thing holding it together now is dreams and the infinite ability of the central banks to add 0's to an excel spreadsheet.

If shit hits the fan like that, gold or silver ain't gonna do anything. Ammo would be what to buy, but once you run out of that, you're screwed

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE]

Buy physical silver and/or gold. The economy died in 2008 and it does not know it's already dead. The only thing holding it together now is dreams and the infinite ability of the central banks to add 0's to an excel spreadsheet.

This is so dumb.

 

[mindlessobserver]

If shit hits the fan like that, gold or silver ain't gonna do anything. Ammo would be what to buy, but once you run out of that, you're screwed

Society never falls. It simply takes a new form. The only constant between one society to the next, from the fall of the Bronze age, to the rise of the Iron Age, to their fall and the Rise of China, Greece and Rome, to their fall at the hands of the Steppe people to the age of Gunpowder, Steel and Absolute Kings, to THEIR fall, and our current age of merchant princes and their math....

The one constant is Gold could buy land in the depth of time and Gold can buy it now, while Silver can buy you food and time with a woman in the depths of time and can still buy you it now.

5,000 years of history say the precious metals have value over time with no evidence to the contrary.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

Realistically, if gold and silver aren't worth anything, you're probably already dead. Nothing would be good in that situation, not even ammo, because you'll still either starve or some gang will kill you in your sleep and take it. In a total collapse of civilization, you need an entire tribe to survive, not just yourself or even yourself and your family. Being banished from the tribe historically meant death for a reason, since you'd live a miserably hard life until some other tribe came by and killed you and took your shit.

It's just an economic collapse. If shit really hit the fan then bands of armed warlords will step in and guess what, the warlords demand a functioning currency system which means gold and silver will go a very long way.

 

[(((Obar Lazcano Kamz)))]

Buy physical silver and/or gold. The economy died in 2008 and it does not know it's already dead. The only thing holding it together now is dreams and the infinite ability of the central banks to add 0's to an excel spreadsheet.

Wouldn't it be better to invest in specific commodities then silver and gold? I get that silver and gold hold value almost eternally but wouldn't you have to wait for society to rebound in order for that value to come back?

 

[ditto]

Invest in US equities because since the Depression was such a trauma the US government will never, ever let it crash like that again. Oh and all the politicans and boomers have blue chip heavy 401ks. If wall st so much as sniffles there's bailouts, TARPs and helicopters printing dollars out the wazoo.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

Invest in US equities because since the Depression was such a trauma the US government will never, ever let it crash like that again. Oh and all the politicans and boomers have blue chip heavy 401ks. If wall st so much as sniffles there's bailouts, TARPs and helicopters printing dollars out the wazoo.

This nigga really doesn't get it

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

I think copper is an underrated investment for the same reason silver is worth something. If you don't have access to abandoned buildings the methheads haven't stripped down, then collect pre-1982 US pennies (or similar coins). They're 95% copper and also functional currency no one bothers to counterfeit making them potentially very useful. Pre-1962 might be even more valuable since they have a tiny fraction of tin.

 

[DumbDude42]

Wouldn't it be better to invest in specific commodities then silver and gold? I get that silver and gold hold value almost eternally but wouldn't you have to wait for society to rebound in order for that value to come back?

"wouldn't you have to wait for society to rebound in order for that value to come back?" this applies to literally everything that you could buy and store for trade value. if society is completely wiped out to the point where the few survivors are literally scavenging for food to avoid death from starvation then yeah your bars of gold are worthless. in that scenario, the only things worth hoarding are resources and tools that you need for immediate survival. food, water, gas, lighter fluid, toilet paper, clothes, weapons, etc.

but, if you are just expecting economic decline/collapse, not complete apocalypse, then gold and silver are probably your best bet to save some of your wealth from getting obliterated by the market imploding on itself.

 

[TheRedChair]

Buy physical silver and/or gold. The economy died in 2008 and it does not know it's already dead. The only thing holding it together now is dreams and the infinite ability of the central banks to add 0's to an excel spreadsheet.

Yes unless you have it in your hands you have nothing. I personally believe one of my friends adages. He invests into Bullets. His way of thinking is scary spot on when if comes down to things.

That's nuts. Lots of companies could go under if they can't pay those debts, which seems pretty likely with that high of an amount.

I don't do corporate bonds. I use bonds for safety, so mine are all treasuries. Pays less, but that's okay. I have plenty of stocks for higher risk, higher return.

I have been saying for a how long time now... To save money. Not like the Bullshit postings on the current FIRE movement (because in itself is a half truth) on social media, but actually telling people how to save money. YOU NEED THE GREEN. We had a minor outage in my region where no debit machines were working at a major grocery outlet. 7 out of 10 people could not pay for their food. Hell I just laughed at them and pulled out the green and left.

CASH is KING.... I've already posted that hundreds of billions of dollars are being hoarded by the Corporations a while ago.

If you are going to invest... really do your homework before doing so.

 

[Overly Serious]

I don't know where's a good place to go if you want to survive, but getting out of Germany sounds like a smart move. This can't be good...

 

[Hippopatumus]

I think copper is an underrated investment for the same reason silver is worth something. If you don't have access to abandoned buildings the methheads haven't stripped down, then collect pre-1982 US pennies (or similar coins). They're 95% copper and also functional currency no one bothers to counterfeit making them potentially very useful. Pre-1962 might be even more valuable since they have a tiny fraction of tin.

10k in copper is 2500 pounds. Where you storing that?

 

[DumbDude42]

10k in copper is 2500 pounds. Where you storing that?

that's a bit over one cubic meter by volume. not difficult to fit in your basement or garage.
the more interesting part is getting all that weight delivered and moved in to where you want to store it. you're gonna be very out of breath by the time you're done with that.

 

[Hippopatumus]

Yes, you are going to eat a massive premium in purchasing the copper, paying sales tax on it, and shipping / transportion costs. Then it's going to sit there and take up a bunch of space until you try to unload it and pay another round of shipping costs, plus capital gains.

Not worth it.

 

[DumbDude42]

meanwhile 10000 dollars in gold weighs less than 200 grams. there's good reason why people use rare metals as value storage and not abundant ones like copper.

 

[Quindoll]

If you go for physical precious metals, go for the once that have, like gold, a high value and low volume. I prefer to get shares of the companies that work with these metals. So mines, manufacturers and so on.

I don't know where's a good place to go if you want to survive, but getting out of Germany sounds like a smart move. This can't be good...

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The second tweet is a bit disingenuous. It implies that the shut down of conventional energy plants like coal and nuclear will have an impact, probably a negative. But the high energy price is to a large part to just higher costs of fossil resources. The price for gas went up 400 % since April 2021.
Imports for liquid gas (LNG) into the whole of the EU went down by 20 % by September 2021 compared to the past year. Mostly because lower higher demand from Asia and scarce supply.

A political price driver is the increase for EU CO2 certificates. Which went up quite a bit. The price was at around 26,57 Euro/t CO2 in November 2020. In November it is at an average of 65,68 Euro/t CO2.
Which is fair, unless you do not believe in the harmful effects of greenhouse gases. Just like an cost comparison between trains and cars has to include the traffic accidents for cars to make it somewhat fair.
This went so far that the higher gas price overcompensated the higher CO2 cost of coal. Thus more energy was produce by coal powered plants.

In addition the energy generated by renewables was down these past few months. The share of conventional energy rose and this also contributed to the rise in the prices. Ironically, if Germany had a few hundred additional wind turbines - prices would probably be lower.

And it seems that there is some conflict concerning the Nord stream 2 gas pipeline again. Russia is fucking with Ukraine. Ukraine is a corrupt shithole and of course, the US mingles in there. So that could explain the increase over this long timeframe.
For me it just shows that conventional fuel can be as unreliable as renewable energy as long as you do not have the recourses on your very own soil. Russia cannot be trusted and I have no idea what the US might come up with.

 

[Overly Serious]

The second tweet is a bit disingenuous. It implies that the shut down of conventional energy plants like coal and nuclear will have an impact, probably a negative. But the high energy price is to a large part to just higher costs of fossil resources. The price for gas went up 400 % since April 2021.

I took it to be a comment that in a market of soaring energy prices and foreign energy dependence Germany is taking actions that make the situation worse rather than better.

A political price driver is the increase for EU CO2 certificates. Which went up quite a bit. The price was at around 26,57 Euro/t CO2 in November 2020. In November it is at an average of 65,68 Euro/t CO2.

Oof! That I did not know. I bet a lot of other people don't either. If there's something that could stand a bit more effort to make the general public aware of it would be how much of the cost is CO2 tax. So, naive question no doubt, but who gets the money for these certificates?

 

[DumbDude42]

So, naive question no doubt, but who gets the money for these certificates?

government of course