Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

Kujo Jotaro said:
No one can make any guarantees as to when the house of cards will come tumbling down, but its inevitable that it does. Fiat systems are built to last 50-75 years, ours just crossed the 50 year mark, and all indicators point towards its demise. You can stick your head in the sand and ignore all indicators, but don't feel sorry for yourselves when you wake up one day and find your paper worthless.
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Dear Lord I think you just fucking murdered any stupid Keynesian chuds here. :dunsparce:
 
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I read somewhere (maybe even here) that stock market cycles are wealth extractions. And that the key to spotting the next collapse was when everyone down to your local plumber was playing the stock market. Reason being that at this point maximum wealth extraction potential has been reached with everyone putting their money in. The very big players pull their money out and put it in assets, the whole thing collapses then they buy up everything during the following financial destitution of middle and working class people who've just lost their savings. We seem to be at the point that many regular small time players are invested and it's obvious that the Fed is keeping the stock market up with the free money. I wonder how close we are. The way Covid is being used to bring in a lot more social control strongly suggests to me that they're anticipating a major collapse and wealth transfer. What do we reckon? Next year? 2024 after a Republican win to leave them holding the bag?
 
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Overly Serious said:
I read somewhere (maybe even here) that stock market cycles are wealth extractions. And that the key to spotting the next collapse was when everyone down to your local plumber was playing the stock market. Reason being that at this point maximum wealth extraction potential has been reached with everyone putting their money in. The very big players pull their money out and put it in assets, the whole thing collapses then they buy up everything during the following financial destitution of middle and working class people who've just lost their savings. We seem to be at the point that many regular small time players are invested and it's obvious that the Fed is keeping the stock market up with the free money. I wonder how close we are. The way Covid is being used to bring in a lot more social control strongly suggests to me that they're anticipating a major collapse and wealth transfer. What do we reckon? Next year? 2024 after a Republican win to leave them holding the bag?
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Countries are starting to lock down again in Europe so it could be a red 2022 if other countries decide to follow.
 
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I started this thread almost a year ago to ring the alarm bell over the massive amount of debt being accumulated. It's gotten worse.

Just look at this graph. LOOK AT IT.

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Provided "everything goes according to plan", non investment grade corporate debt will be 50% of the bond market in 2 years. Up from 10% of the bond market this year.

Think about what that means

Half of the bond market will be wrapped in debts that are at risk of default. HALF. And that Half will be twice again as much debt! A quadruple increase in corporate debt with half the quadruple being non investment grade! And oh by the way, all this crap is issued in USD that is inflating at a rate of 8% right now in the face of a supply chain break down, and a collapse in Asian property markets.

This has gone beyond monstrous at this point. We've blown past every historical scenario, including 1929.
 
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mindlessobserver said:
This has gone beyond monstrous at this point. We've blown past every historical scenario, including 1929.
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I you can spare the time, please explain this investment/noninvestment grade debt and the repercussions to a retard like me. I gather that banksters will be fucked and/or will suck daddy government's cock for le bailouts, but what is the effect on working to middle class?
 
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Considered HARMful said:
I you can spare the time, please explain this investment/noninvestment grade debt and the repercussions to a retard like me. I gather that banksters will be fucked and/or will suck daddy government's cock for le bailouts, but what is the effect on working to middle class?
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Think of it like a Car Loan vs. a credit card loan. You get a much lower interest rate on a car loan because the car itself is used as collateral. If you don't pay back the loan the bank gets the car and can sell it. The low interest rate is a reflection of the low risk the bank takes on. Credit Card debt is unsecured however. If you don't pay it the bank is shit out of luck. So the interest charge on the debt is much higher.

Investment Grade vs. Non investment grade is similar, but in this case the risk is calculated not via collateral but rather via how likely the bond issuer is to pay it back. A company that has been in business 50 years and has healthy Financials is investment grade and can borrow at low interest. A company that has been in business 5 years and has just come out of bankruptcy is non investment grade and has to pay more to borrow. An investment grade company can also become non investment grade. Like say...Kodak after they failed to catch the digital camera revolution.

The key take away is non investment grade bonds are far more expensive to service. So it's a double whammy of more expensive for the corporation (which eats profits and the ability to grow the company) and also riskier for the bank. If the corporation goes under then just like with a credit card, they are shit out of luck.

Non investment grade corporate debt going from 10% to 50% in 2 years is nightmarish.
 
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mindlessobserver said:
It's over. The VIX is up almost 100%, DOW and Nasdaq futures for Monday are already in the red. The Crypto market had also moved into a bear pattern.

Europe is threatening more lockdowns thanks to the new Covid Scare. I will be shocked if the house of cards will stay up.
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Buy buy buy buy buy.

But have a plan to get rid of it soon yeah? Aim for a small percentage gain and GTFO. It's what we're doing. With downside protection of course. Always wear a rubber!
 
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Simple Moving Average said:
Buy buy buy buy buy.

But have a plan to get rid of it soon yeah? Aim for a small percentage gain and GTFO. It's what we're doing. With downside protection of course. Always wear a rubber!
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Oh no.

My canary just died.

Carnival Cruise Lines lost over 10% in 24 hours. Those billions they borrowed to stay afloat? So much wasted paper. A situation repeated across the board in so many other companies.
 
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Overly Serious said:
I read somewhere (maybe even here) that stock market cycles are wealth extractions. And that the key to spotting the next collapse was when everyone down to your local plumber was playing the stock market. Reason being that at this point maximum wealth extraction potential has been reached with everyone putting their money in. The very big players pull their money out and put it in assets, the whole thing collapses then they buy up everything during the following financial destitution of middle and working class people who've just lost their savings. We seem to be at the point that many regular small time players are invested and it's obvious that the Fed is keeping the stock market up with the free money. I wonder how close we are. The way Covid is being used to bring in a lot more social control strongly suggests to me that they're anticipating a major collapse and wealth transfer. What do we reckon? Next year? 2024 after a Republican win to leave them holding the bag?
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Gambling on the stock exchange had become the fashion — the only
way to avoid losing all one's money and perhaps to add to it. Many new bankers were giving
people advice, the flight from the krone governing all transactions. 'Meanwhile,' Frau
Eisenmenger wrote, [...]
Speculation on the stock exchange has spread to all ranks of the population and shares rise like
air balloons to limitless heights ... My banker congratulates me on every new rise, but he does
not dispel the secret uneasiness which my growing wealth arouses in me ... it already amounts to
millions.
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An excerpt taken from "When Money Dies" by Adam Fergusson, a book that documents the hyperinflation and economic collapse of the Weimar Republic. There is an almost uncanny amount of parallels between then and the neoliberal MMT nightmare that we are facing now.
 
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777Flux said:
An excerpt taken from "When Money Dies" by Adam Fergusson, a book that documents the hyperinflation and economic collapse of the Weimar Republic. There is an almost uncanny amount of parallels between then and the neoliberal MMT nightmare that we are facing now.
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I have to wonder if they actually believe MMT, because on its face it's so ridiculous. You are betting the future financial stability of the planet on what is essentially meme magic.

But then I realize all the major financiers and government officials running this shit are usually childless boomers with no long term stake in the outcome, while their foot soldiers are gormless Gen Xers and Millenials raised on a diet of liberal arts that believe there is no such thing as truth.

MMT suddenly makes alot more sense when thought about in this context.
 
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contradiction of terns said:
You guys have gotten me interested in watching the stock market and I don't think I could have cared less about it if I tried prior to now. GG, I think?

The only decent source I've found on news about oil prices is predicting $100 a barrel. That seems bad.
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Adjusted for inflation that's way below the long-term median. Now why would that be?
 
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mindlessobserver said:
MMT suddenly makes alot more sense when thought about in this context.
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You know how when someone is desperately sick they will start trying all sorts of "cures" that they wouldn't have considered before because what have they got to lose?

You know how when someone is very poor with no real prospect of getting out of the trap they will buy lottery tickets because, they want to hope?

You know how desperately lonely people will fall for the most implausible cat-fishing or fake profiles because just maybe it's real?

You know how when you're running a country that is $23 trillion in debt and your manufacturing base has degraded for the last five decades and all your attempts to disarm the populace have failed you'll listen to anyone with letters after their name who says they've a way out? Even if it sounds crazy?
 
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Simple Moving Average said:
Adjusted for inflation that's way below the long-term median. Now why would that be?
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I'm guessing because demand is weak due to society totally reconfiguring how it functions post-Covid. There's a cool chart for this, apparently, but staring at it hasn't given me any revelations beyond the obvious one.

oil.png
 
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