- Joined
- Sep 9, 2019
I actually think it's too early to tell if it is a bubble/fad, for a number of reasons:
1. Simpery aside, the vast majority of vtubers use let's plays as their bread and butter, and that's a proven medium by this point. A growing number use music as a way to further expand their brand, and that also is a proven medium. To say that people will just one day get tired of cute anime girl playing minecraft because there are too many of them ignores pretty much the entire history of Youtube and Twitch prior to the vtuber phenomenon.
2. The rate of turnover is still undecided. If big names like Gura and so on stay on top for a long period of time (like let's say ten years), then that will indeed be a limiting factor on growth. If the zenith is already reached, then things will consolidate and slowly stagnate. BUT, if there's a steady turnover and big names regularly graduate, then there will always be a chance for some small name to make it big if they pull their cards right. Gura herself is a good example of this, starting out as an indie and then contracting with Hololive under a new persona that exploded in popularity. This is a big factor, and should not be ignored.
3. The motion capture technology itself isn't completely matured yet. We're still seeing advancements and there's the potential for crossover into games themselves and things like the Metaverse, so we could start to see things like actual live concerts held in VR that isn't just the viewer watching a 3D Youtube video. I'm skeptical if this is what people would actually be interested in, but you never know. The point is, there's stuff on the horizon for vtubers to adopt and experiment with.
In the long term, vtubers will likely just become another thing that's on the internet. Like let's players, critic channels, or cover artists.
Which also mean vtuber simps are here to stay as well, and I doubt that'll be healthy for humanity.
