Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

[mindlessobserver]

I think we are in the final super cycle. The next few months will be the largest bull trap in financial history. The fundamentals at the core of the economy can no longer be sustained by the financial kabuki of the central banks. The "emerging markets" long viewed as the future are in full on collapse already, while global supply chains are failing, and the benchmark USD is entering an uncontrollable inflation push

I honestly don't know what's going to happen now. We are so far into the woods that I can't see daylight. High risk, high yield assets and stocks like the Tech Sector and Cryptos are going to get nuked this year. Silver and Gold may or may not spike, but you won't lose your money there. I still like hard assets like Land and companies that use them. North American mining companies, especially ones with access to critical materials like Lithium, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Nickel are solid.

Beyond that, who knows. I've been worried for a year now obviously, and all my concerns in this thread have come about. Inflation is out of control, supplies of critical resources are running out. The only thing that has not happened yet is the market itself catching up to the effects on the ground, and that is due to the massive and unsustainable government stimulus.

Land, Gold, Silver, Food, Finished Electronics, Vehicles and Guns.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

If you're interested in locking any of that money away in a relatively stable asset then gold is your best bet. Over a long enough time horizon in our current system gold always holds its value if not increases. If you're looking to make money shorting stocks or trading crypto good luck, just about everything is in a bubble, institutional investors aren't going to give you their honest answer either, they'll tell you one thing and then somehow magically end up on the right side of a trade which would've been completely contradictory to their previous supposed outlook.

You could always split your money between assets, or simply hold cash in hopes of a good buying opportunity. Inflation might get out of hand, I personally expect it to, but there are no guarantees. Don't FOMO into anything, more than likely you'll get burned. Really no one here can give you great advice, we're kind of in unprecedented times, and your opinion on the market will be dictated more than ever on 2 things; your faith and confidence in the FED, and where you think the world is headed in a general sense.

PM just means you don't lose money. At least probably, since if the price rises too high then companies open new mines and the price stabilizes. The price of PM would have to rise by a decent amount to make your money back when you consider the fact you always buy it a few dollars over spot price and most dealers will underpay you for it since that's their business model.

This century might be different though since disregarding silver squeeze stuff or speculation on countries returning to gold standard/bimetallism/whatever, there's an increasing demand for silver in electronics which will definitely affect price long term,

Land, Gold, Silver, Food, Finished Electronics, Vehicles and Guns.

Sure hope I don't lose my PS5 in a lake too.

 

[EquifraxSevven]

I can't say I'm patrician enough to own gold but I am definitely investing in Silver a little at a time. Stocks as well, I don't touch bonds.
What I've been wondering about ever since COVID happened is how the real estate market will end up in a few years time. You seem to have two main sides, those that think another 2008 crash is imminent because banks never learned their lesson in '08 due to the government bailout (which is a fair point), and those that think the funny money printed to the tune of trillions by the FED will inflate land and housing continuously until it becomes impossible to buy even an acre on whatever salary we'll have 5 years from now. Also a fair argument.
My personal opinion, how can RE go anywhere but down? Mortgage forbearance was huge when COVID first started, there was a statistic back in 2019 that 50% of Americans did not have $400 to their name in savings, and there was an eviction moratorium that I think is STILL being continued despite starting 2 years ago. Although that may have changed in most states by now, I'm not entirely sure. You also have the school of thought that large investment firms are buying up houses across the US in a flurry, but I've yet to see any concrete evidence of this happening in my neck of the woods (which is bumfuck nowhere to be fair, a company like BlackRock has no reason to invest there, I imagine they only want the high dollar city RE). Not that I'd want to live in a city anyways.

I also have a theory, not really based on any verifiable numbers but more on my shit-headed intutition, is that inflation is a regional phenomena, because for all the crazy stories I hear about crazy high food prices, from what I've asked around and seen in my area, it's been about the same or a little bit higher than before. Mainly with food costs, but I live in a part of the country that has quite a bit of farmland, so I wonder how much that would otherwise lower the cost at a local grocery store, if a majority of the food supply doesn't have to be trucked in from out of state. There's probably a way to view exact numbers on that, but I'd have to look for it.

Big + ups on what mindlessobserver said though, good vehicles, weapons and ammo, gold and silver. For what it's worth my stocks have done great this entire pandemic since I bought the dip in March of 2020, but I don't know how long this bull market will last or how hard it would drop in such a situation. In a way printing to infinity may be preferable, because one of the bigger reasons to the cause of the Depression was the inability to print extra money due to every dollar being tied to an ounce of gold, which is a finite resource and was not being mined nearly fast enough back then. Hence, a whole decade of financial contagion that only became an era of posterity because of a global war and no competition due to everyone else being firebombed besides the US.

I would invest in Treasury Bonds as well as a "safe" haven if you're willing to stick a $100 away a month or so, since it's a government backed security and you can buy them up to 30 year terms if you don't need the money right then. But that's only if you trust the FED and really think inflation is %2 every year, and not like the 4%-6% that the shadow stats say it is. Which would track. The government doesn't even consider food or utilities on the CPI, so that's to your personal discretion. I'm personally not a fan when stocks are so easy to get into.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

PM just means you don't lose money. At least probably, since if the price rises too high then companies open new mines and the price stabilizes. The price of PM would have to rise by a decent amount to make your money back when you consider the fact you always buy it a few dollars over spot price and most dealers will underpay you for it since that's their business model.

This century might be different though since disregarding silver squeeze stuff or speculation on countries returning to gold standard/bimetallism/whatever, there's an increasing demand for silver in electronics which will definitely affect price long term,

Sure hope I don't lose my PS5 in a lake too.

Mines take time to open and start producing(look at how long gayhorse has been promising results), and under our current monetary system it would only be profitable if the price saw a sharp increase followed by a stable continuation of that price for a number of years.

You've read my sperging about metals though so I won't bore you with it in this thread as well.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

I think we are in the final super cycle. The next few months will be the largest bull trap in financial history. The fundamentals at the core of the economy can no longer be sustained by the financial kabuki of the central banks. The "emerging markets" long viewed as the future are in full on collapse already, while global supply chains are failing, and the benchmark USD is entering an uncontrollable inflation push

I honestly don't know what's going to happen now. We are so far into the woods that I can't see daylight. High risk, high yield assets and stocks like the Tech Sector and Cryptos are going to get nuked this year. Silver and Gold may or may not spike, but you won't lose your money there. I still like hard assets like Land and companies that use them. North American mining companies, especially ones with access to critical materials like Lithium, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Nickel are solid.

Beyond that, who knows. I've been worried for a year now obviously, and all my concerns in this thread have come about. Inflation is out of control, supplies of critical resources are running out. The only thing that has not happened yet is the market itself catching up to the effects on the ground, and that is due to the massive and unsustainable government stimulus.

Land, Gold, Silver, Food, Finished Electronics, Vehicles and Guns.

You forgot medical supplies.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

You also have the school of thought that large investment firms are buying up houses across the US in a flurry, but I've yet to see any concrete evidence of this happening in my neck of the woods (which is bumfuck nowhere to be fair, a company like BlackRock has no reason to invest there, I imagine they only want the high dollar city RE). Not that I'd want to live in a city anyways.

I check properties in my area every now and then to monitor the price and figure out if the market's good to buy (I don't think it is, I don't want to spend 20-30K for an inferior property), I notice listings saying "out of state investor" and one property which vanished for a few months and then came back tens of thousands of dollars more expensive. A lot of these are vacant lots too, so you can be sure there are powerful people fucking around with the real estate market everywhere if you look hard enough.

Mines take time to open and start producing(look at how long gayhorse has been promising results), and under our current monetary system it would only be profitable if the price saw a sharp increase followed by a stable continuation of that price for a number of years.

You've read my sperging about metals though so I won't bore you with it in this thread as well.

As I implied though, silver is a huge component in modern electronics related to "green" tech like electric car batteries, solar panels, etc. No matter what you think about those, those are here to stay because there's a fuckton of money invested in them that people will inevitably find plenty of uses for them and the basic concept is sound engineering even if there's gaping holes in green energy policy and shit like those sludge lakes in China where they make solar panels. Demand for silver will continue to increase over the course of the 21st century, probably eventually challenging the supply of silver unless someone coughs up the money and gets around the sheer engineering challenges of building infrastructure in space, Antarctica, or the deep oceans to profitably operate a mine there.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

I check properties in my area every now and then to monitor the price and figure out if the market's good to buy (I don't think it is, I don't want to spend 20-30K for an inferior property), I notice listings saying "out of state investor" and one property which vanished for a few months and then came back tens of thousands of dollars more expensive. A lot of these are vacant lots too, so you can be sure there are powerful people fucking around with the real estate market everywhere if you look hard enough.

As I implied though, silver is a huge component in modern electronics related to "green" tech like electric car batteries, solar panels, etc. No matter what you think about those, those are here to stay because there's a fuckton of money invested in them that people will inevitably find plenty of uses for them and the basic concept is sound engineering even if there's gaping holes in green energy policy and shit like those sludge lakes in China where they make solar panels. Demand for silver will continue to increase over the course of the 21st century, probably eventually challenging the supply of silver unless someone coughs up the money and gets around the sheer engineering challenges of building infrastructure in space, Antarctica, or the deep oceans to profitably operate a mine there.

I wasn't trying to disagree with you on demand, I'm well aware of how much demand there is for silver. Even removing Green tech there's still massive demand for it, and the supply is beginning to dwindle. My point was basically that given the current cost we would need to see a huge price rise before anyone even contemplated opening mines at a higher rate, and it would need to hold for some time before most companies felt safe investing the amount of capital required to start a mine that might never produce a single troy oz.

 

[Audit]

I'm trying to decide if it's worth it to just hold a diversified stock portfolio and ride out the storm or if I should move money into "safe" assets temporarily (cash or bonds?). I figure that I'm nowhere near lucky enough to time a market collapse. On a long enough time span, the market recovers after each crash, so my holdings won't be lost as long as I don't sell off in a panic. I'm not concerned about the immediate short term and I don't have enough invested for a few years downturn to ruin me. That said, if I could play the downturn and make a pretty penny, I'd prefer it. Right now my energy stock holdings are treating me well, so maybe I should swap assets over to core commodities that could maintain their valuation through a crash. Commodity chemical funds seem pretty stable, but they're not about to crest too much.

Metals seem popular here but my understanding is that mining firms are an extremely risky venture. A 400% return or a near 100% loss are both likely possibilities depending on geopolitical conditions and market prices. On a thirty year timescale, silver appears to reach a standard market value for a few years before readjusting. We're currently trending back to prepandemic silver values, so I think it's a bad buy. Gold seems much safer.

In any circumstance, I'm going to hold off on any new investments until I get a sense for where the market is heading. Not as if I'm sitting on a massive warchest just waiting to be spent.

 

[EquifraxSevven]

I check properties in my area every now and then to monitor the price and figure out if the market's good to buy (I don't think it is, I don't want to spend 20-30K for an inferior property), I notice listings saying "out of state investor" and one property which vanished for a few months and then came back tens of thousands of dollars more expensive. A lot of these are vacant lots too, so you can be sure there are powerful people fucking around with the real estate market everywhere if you look hard enough.

For sure, I'm sure land manipulation is happening across the entire US at varying levels, my point was more that I don't think it's at the level that most people who talk about it think it is. There's a lot of overlap between that train of thought and stuff like "The Great Reset", where you will own nothing and be happy. Which sound terrifying but from my viewpoint, most corporations would never want the trouble of renting out properties even for a "control" factor, they already have their government arm making sure everyone pays property tax, and they would definitely prefer the landlord being a middleman to them, because if anything goes wrong they can shaft the middleman not in their group and waive all liability.
I say this because I helped a landlord fix up a rental of his at one point, working on more or less every system in the home in some capacity. Cheap when you do it on your own and you have the knowledge, but 99% of landlords don't seem to have that, and contractors gouge on labor compared to actual material cost. This isn't really related to your exact point but basically, I feel like if that's your concern that you will never own a home, don't even worry about it. Well, unless you NEED shelter, in which case you are right to be very worried about it. But if you can hold out for a few years then it's a net zero.

Metals seem popular here but my understanding is that mining firms are an extremely risky venture. A 400% return or a near 100% loss are both likely possibilities depending on geopolitical conditions and market prices. On a thirty year timescale, silver appears to reach a standard market value for a few years before readjusting. We're currently trending back to prepandemic silver values, so I think it's a bad buy. Gold seems much safer.

My understanding is that historically silver tracks with gold at a 16:1 ratio or thereabouts, while the current ratio is somewhere around 87:1. In other words silver being incredibly suppressed price-wise. I don't expect a meteoric rise in silver for quite a while if ever, but I also seem to remember that silver's quantity available to us is indeed decreasing (estimates from 2037-2040), so if silver goes up your profit would stand to be much greater than gold, due to the fact silver is THAT much cheaper if you were to buy it in bulk. But this is just my understanding of it, and I hold a little bit of silver compared to my liquid cash because metals at the end of the day are still hedges of wealth instead of a real "investment".

 

[mindlessobserver]

Should caveat my mining stock advice. Go for companies that have already paid the capital investment costs and gone active like Lundin Mining. They went into full production of their nickel mine (America's only nickel mine) in 2014. What makes these sorts of companies unique is that once they have gone into operation the big financial hurdles have been cleared. Even better though, right now rare Earth's and base metals are over reliant on China suppressing the market artificially, as well as a massive global supply chain. Both situations that are breaking down as we speak.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Should caveat my mining stock advice. Go for companies that have already paid the capital investment costs and gone active like Lundin Mining. They went into full production of their nickel mine (America's only nickel mine) in 2014. What makes these sorts of companies unique is that once they have gone into operation the big financial hurdles have been cleared. Even better though, right now rare Earth's and base metals are over reliant on China suppressing the market artificially, as well as a massive global supply chain. Both situations that are breaking down as we speak.

Always happy to hear someone repping our holdings. Good choice friend!

 

[mindlessobserver]

Here we go. Hope y'all prepared.

 

[glad vlad]

I am probably not prepared. I sold my crypto early in the month because I realized that I was just not made of the stern stuff necessary to hodl through big drops. I wish I knew what to do with savings during these times, but I don’t. I did just finally manage to find a chest freezer so if nothing else, hodl grassfed beef.

 

[Joshuan Moon]

Here we go. Hope y'all prepared.

So what you're saying is I should buy the dip? French onion or bean?

 

[mindlessobserver]

So what you're saying is I should buy the dip? French onion or bean?

If you haven't bought Cheese dip yet you ain't gonna make it.

 

[Twitter Hate Mob]

$AMP is down 20% in a day, my shitcoin dreams are in tatters.

 

[mindlessobserver]

$AMP is down 20% in a day, my shitcoin dreams are in tatters.

To be fair, all coins are down around 20% in a day lol

 

[thejackal]

Buy SARK. Thank me in a month.

 

[Non-breath oblige]

Highlights from fin satire twitter:

 

[Aqua Panda]

It has been a bad week. We are in full on correction territory now and it's not looking like it's going to get better. A lot of shit is primed to hit the fan and the fallout will be legendarily bad if things really go tits up.

Hold onto your butts. This could make the crash of 2020 seem tame.