I think Dr. Strange wins best actor due to the "Historically unprecedented and glass ceiling breaking" Power of Dog which I didn't think was very good but c'est la vie.
And being badly miscast. I actually think Cumberbatch is a good actor but who gets roles he doesn't suit, and that was just one of many problems with The Power of the Dog. Such Oscar catnip, but not a film worth seeing, IMO. Glad Kirsten Dunst got a nod, though.
So which one do you think will won Best Picture?
I'd be good with Licorice Pizza and fine with Dune winning, not so much Nightmare Alley, definitely not The Power of the Dog, out of the ones I've seen. Curious about Belfast, not so much about the others.
I wonder if King Richard can bear the burden of stopping another #Oscarssowhite, considering they don't give a fuck about the non-black POC. Yes, there's loads of latino and asian representation, but considering the insufferable black wokefest that was last year, I wonder if they can tolerate no longer being over-represented.
There's no category where I've seen all the nominees, but I did think Jessica Chastain was fantastic in The Eyes of Tammy Faye and would deserve it if she won.
Edit: Also, to be fair to Don't Look Up, which I haven't seen, they thought The Big Short was a lot better than it was as well, and I believe they're both by the same guy, doing the same sort of thing. The Oscars don't often celebrate subtle, much preferring didactic, smug and obvious. One of the reasons they can be annoying is there are times when they get it right. And yes, subjective, etc. But it puts in stark contrast the number of times they go for something actively bad but it says the right thing.