War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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[LORD IMPERATOR]

I think Putin thought this would go like the invasion of Hungary or Czechoslovakia, where Russian troops would roll in and occupy the capitol almost instantly with the Ukrainian Army either capitulating like the Czechs or outright siding with them like the Hungarians. It's too early in the offensive to really judge how the war is going for them and the fall of Kiev is a foregone conclusion, the only question being how much the Ukrainians can make the Russians bleed for it.

The fall of Kiev would be just the beginning. Holding it and keeping their presence in the country in the face of guerilla attacks is a different matter. The Americans easily rolled Baghdad, their problem came when it was time to hold it.

And once again Ukraine has a broad porous border with Poland. Which Russia really has no capability to interdict. So those Man Portable Missiles will be flowing in like water. And if there's one thing that GLOBOHOMO likes almost as much as neverending war, it's somebody elses war where they get to freely test out their latest and greatest toyswithout any real chance of repurcussions (for them).

That just makes the Ukrainians' job much easier. Even if Russia takes and holds Kiev, those MANPADS and hit-and-run guerillas will be a constant pain in the ass. That would be bad enough even if your army has good morale, something with Russia lacks in this fight, while their enemy has all the morale and justification in the world.

 

[WULULULULU]

The fall of Kiev would be just the beginning. Holding it and keeping their presence in the country in the face of guerilla attacks is a different matter. The Americans easily rolled Baghdad, their problem came when it was time to hold it.


That just makes the Ukrainians' job much easier. Even if Russia takes and holds Kiev, those MANPADS and hit-and-run guerillas will be a constant pain in the ass. That would be bad enough even if your army has good morale, something with Russia lacks in this fight, while their enemy has all the morale and justification in the world.

While morale is of great importance to soldiers, it is the technology and actions of those who control it that ultimately wins the war most of the time.

 

[LORD IMPERATOR]

While morale is of great importance to soldiers, it is the technology and actions of those who control it that ultimately wins the war most of the time.

Yes, and it's awfully easy for the west to transport the right tech and weapons to the Ukrainians, and the Ukrainians are more than likely to act decisively as opposed to the Russians. The Ukrainians are fighting on native soil and are ready to die, the Russians don't even know why they're fighting outside of Putin and his inner cabal trying to restore the old USSR borders.

This has Vietnam spelled all over it, and in this case, it's the Russians who are already suffering larger casualties, not the Ukrainians.

 

[RodgerDodger]

And of course, if the Ukrainians do enough damage while the Russians roll them over, that won't scare the other NATO countries. That would embolden them. The Ukrainians will become martyrs, and the other nations will fight just as hard, if not harder, knowing that the Russian bear can bleed. If some Z-list ex-Soviet Republic was capable of doing THAT to the Russians, just imagine what the rest of Europe can do. And since Russia didn't start this war with high morale, this is going to hurt Russia more than it will the west.

The west woke up with a shock when Russia invaded. But now, it seems like this war will end with Russia bleeding and the west laughing its ass off at the Russian bear.

The problem for Putin isn't whether he looks weak to the NATO nations. Even the ex Soviet ones. It's looking weak to the varios ex Soviet Republics that nominalky fall within his sphere of interest. Kazahkstan, etc. Places where strongmen are largely propped up by fear of big daddy Putin.

To add to that Belarus has got to be shitting a brick right now. They just permitted Putin's Army to drive through them to attack a neighbor. Which is the only reason the Russians are close to Kyiv. This was clearly an attempt at a fast decapitation of Ukrainian Leadership. It also looks to have failed at that. Where does that leave Belarus on the world stage? On the European Stage? In doing this they likely put a shooting war on one border and almost certainly triggered a massive Military buildup of the Poles on another. Talk about putting your nutsack in a vice.

 

[East_Clintwood]

My thinking is, Putin has bought into his own narrative. He believes that the Russian military is unmatched, that Ukraine is Russian and would rise up against the "Nazis".

That's almost certainly a part of it. The real question is if their military is genuinely as dumbass/ backwards as he is, or if they're just too afraid to tell him the truth, and frankly neither of those possibilities bodes well for them

I've said for a while, small teams with shoulder launched munitions are effective enough to blunt the Russians.

That's always been the case. I know when people think of the Cold War gone hot they imagine hordes of Abrams/Challengers/Leopards duelling it out on the German plains with T72s and T80s and shit, and while their would have been plenty of it, the real backbone of the defense was dudes in jeeps, and on foot, with MILANs and TOWs and Stingers playing whack-a-mole.

Losing is a push, certainly it is clear they are underperforming.

I'd argue it's currently a tactical win but heading further and further towards a strategic loss. They were clearly not expecting, and not prepared, for an actual fight.

The Ukrainians still have an airforce - the Russians claimed they would never got off the ground, and if they did the much vaunted S400s would and short work of them.

This is probably the real killer for the Russkies going forwards. For all the flaws and issues with the F-35, and it has them, the fact is if the Russians can't handle the ex-soviet hand-me-downs of the Ukranian Air Force, in a confrontation with the West we'd have our fucking way with them in the skies., and he who controls the skies controls the war.
Remember at the start of the Gulf War the Iraqis had one of the largest Air Forces in the world, combined with one of the largest and integrated air defense networks in the world, and we fucking took it apart in a matter of days, and after that we had free rein to do pretty much whatever we wanted to them.

 

[blablabla]

but but mah ukraine.
russian army are near the town square and you can legit hear it on the streams.
also they took the principal internet provider in the country.
ukraine will fall this weekend

 

[Uncle Sid]

Moldovan bunker ship Millennial Spirit and Panamanian bulker Namura Queen were struck with missiles and naval guns while anchored off Odessa, Ukraine, according Philippine Defense Forces who are attempting to determine if any Filipino crew were on either vessel. Trade blockade? Is Russia now at war with Moldova and Panama? If so, lots of merchant marine registered there.

 

[LORD IMPERATOR]

The problem for Putin isn't whether he looks weak to the NATO nations. Even the ex Soviet ones. It's looking weak to the varios ex Soviet Republics that nominalky fall within his sphere of interest. Kazahkstan, etc. Places where strongmen are largely propped up by fear of big daddy Putin.

To add to that Belarus has got to be shitting a brick right now. They just permitted Putin's Army to drive through them to attack a neighbor. Which is the only reason the Russians are close to Kyiv. This was clearly an attempt at a fast decapitation of Ukrainian Leadership. It also looks to have failed at that. Where does that leave Belarus on the world stage? On the European Stage? In doing this they likely put a shooting war on one border and almost certainly triggered a massive Military buildup of the Poles on another. Talk about putting your nutsack in a vice.

Belarus is going to become the modern-day Vidkun Quisling or Benedict Arnold. The world can't fully punish Russia for its wrongdoings given their nuclear arsenal and their massive oil reserves, but Belarus doesn't have as much wealth or influence as Russia. If the west can't punish Russia, they will certainly punish Belarus.

That's almost certainly a part of it. The real question is if their military is genuinely as dumbass/ backwards as he is, or if they're just too afraid to tell him the truth, and frankly neither of those possibilities bodes well for them

I'm guessing, a little bit of column A, and a little bit of column B. It wouldn't be surprising if Putin got rid of officers and military analysts who criticized his plans, and he's now stuck with a bunch of sycophants who only know how to kiss his ass.

I'd argue it's currently a tactical win but heading further and further towards a strategic loss. They were clearly not expecting, and not prepared, for an actual fight.

Couple that with an enemy that's willing to die to the last man, and insufficient morale, and I wouldn't be surprised to see desertions in a growing scale.

This is probably the real killer for the Russkies going forwards. For all the flaws and issues with the F-35, and it has them, the fact is if the Russians can't handle the ex-soviet hand-me-downs of the Ukranian Air Force, in a confrontation with the West we'd have our fucking way with them in the skies., and he who controls the skies controls the war.

That would only serve to embolden NATO and the west. The last thing you need is to telegraph to the enemy that they can whoop your ass from above.

Remember at the start of the Gulf War the Iraqis had one of the largest Air Forces in the world, combined with one of the largest and integrated air defense networks in the world, and we fucking took it apart in a matter of days, and after that we had free rein to do pretty much whatever we wanted to them.

In the end of the day, skilled and motivated soldiers win battles. It seems that Russia is slightly lacking in the former and REALLY lacking in the latter.

but but mah ukraine.
russian army are near the town square and you can legit hear it on the streams.
also they took the principal internet provider in the country.
ukraine will fall this weekend

That's not the point. If Russia could actually put its money where its mouth is, Kiev and Ukraine should have fallen 12 hours ago.

 

[Ow The Edge]

What the hell is with people making declarations that the Russians have failed after two days? Even the most curb-stomp of curb-stomps wasn't over in a fucking weekend.

 

[blablabla]

Belarus is going to become the modern-day Vidkun Quisling or Benedict Arnold. The world can't fully punish Russia for its wrongdoings given their nuclear arsenal and their massive oil reserves, but Belarus doesn't have as much wealth or influence as Russia. If the west can't punish Russia, they will certainly punish Belarus.


I'm guessing, a little bit of column A, and a little bit of column B. It wouldn't be surprising if Putin got rid of officers and military analysts who criticized his plans, and he's now stuck with a bunch of sycophants who only know how to kiss his ass.


Couple that with an enemy that's willing to die to the last man, and insufficient morale, and I wouldn't be surprised to see desertions in a growing scale.


That would only serve to embolden NATO and the west. The last thing you need is to telegraph to the enemy that they can whoop your ass from above.


In the end of the day, skilled and motivated soldiers win battles. It seems that Russia is slightly lacking in the former and REALLY lacking in the latter.


That's not the point. If Russia could actually put its money where its mouth is, Kiev and Ukraine should have fallen 12 hours ago.

according to whom

 

[LORD IMPERATOR]

What the hell is with people making declarations that the Russians have failed after two days? Even the most curb-stomp of curb-stomps wasn't over in a fucking weekend.

That was before we had modern technology and weaponry. If Russia can't even own the skies after invading a fucking next-door neighbor, a former client-state, then it doesn't look like they can do so at all.

according to whom

According to the fact that Ukraine used to be their puppet state, that Ukraine is far smaller and weaker than them in terms of military strength, and the fact that they're RIGHT NEXT DOOR.

 

[Aidan]

@LORD IMPERATOR I think you're buying too much stuff on social media regarding Russian losses. I'd advise taking a step back to wait and see what's really going on as it's already been demonstrated some of that was 100% made up.
Ukraine lied about their own plane going down and claimed it was Russian. That isn't a "woopsy" moment, that's just a lie.

Not trying to say they're bad for doing it, just saying there's not really much concrete info on either side's situation right now except for knowing Russians are right outside Kiev.

 

[JosephStalin]

And of course, if the Ukrainians do enough damage while the Russians roll them over, that won't scare the other NATO countries. That would embolden them. The Ukrainians will become martyrs, and the other nations will fight just as hard, if not harder, knowing that the Russian bear can bleed. If some Z-list ex-Soviet Republic was capable of doing THAT to the Russians, just imagine what the rest of Europe can do. And since Russia didn't start this war with high morale, this is going to hurt Russia more than it will the west.

The west woke up with a shock when Russia invaded. But now, it seems like this war will end with Russia bleeding and the west laughing its ass off at the Russian bear.

One thing to keep in mind - today's Russian Army isn't the near-bottomless well of manpower that made up the Red Army. Putin has only a limited number of fully-manned and equipped, combat-ready divisions at any one time. In addition, many in the army are not in the combat arms. Might be surprised to see just how few trigger-pullers are in the Russian Army. Most advanced militaries are in the same fix, takes a lot of support people behind each trigger-puller.

From what little I have heard about Russian/Soviet practice in the attack, they like to use divisions for 2-3 days straight, until exhausted. Then follow-on divisions come in. Could be happening now, lead divisions getting worn out. Then you need more divisions to replace them. Putin may not be able to do this for very long. Much of his reserve forces are nowhere near ready for combat. There are also many other commitments to be met, The Ukrainians can mobilize reserves from the western parts of the country with no fear of an attack from the west. Yeah, the Ukrainians will also get tired but they are defending their homes.

Not enough in itself to let the Ukrainians defeat the Russians, but could be enough for Putin to realize the game cannot be won without a substantial mobilization, with the attendant effects on Russian transportation, logistics, and the economy. Ukraine can have some confidence of Western help in dealing with the war's economic effects. Russia is now dealing with increasingly tough economic sanctions.

Have said here many times that the Russian and Chinese militaries are just as screwed up as ours, in their own ways, Believe this statement has been borne out in the case of Russia.

Vlad, pal, declare victory and go home.

 

[Ow The Edge]

That was before we had modern technology and weaponry. If Russia can't even own the skies after invading a fucking next-door neighbor, a former client-state, then it doesn't look like they can do so at all.

You're putting enormous amounts of stock into the some shaky internet videos and the rather obviously embellished claims of the Ukrainian government. I think you're a bit premature in declaring Russia's air force to have failed.

 

[LORD IMPERATOR]

@LORD IMPERATOR I think you're buying too much stuff on social media regarding Russian losses. I'd advise taking a step back to wait and see what's really going on as it's already been demonstrated some of that was 100% made up.
Ukraine lied about their own plane going down and claimed it was Russian. That isn't a "woopsy" moment, that's just a lie.

Not trying to say they're bad for doing it, just saying there's not really much concrete info on either side's situation right now except for knowing Russians are right outside Kiev.

There's no proof that says otherwise. If anything, the other posters here have proven the opposite.

The Russians have been outside of Kiev, but they should have taken the city 12 hours ago considering how close it is to the Belarusian border.

One thing to keep in mind - today's Russian Army isn't the near-bottomless well of manpower that made up the Red Army. Putin has only a limited number of fully-manned and equipped, combat-ready divisions at any one time. In addition, many in the army are not in the combat arms. Might be surprised to see just how few trigger-pullers are in the Russian Army. Most advanced militaries are in the same fix, takes a lot of support people behind each trigger-puller.

That is my main concern. This isn't the same army that decimated the Nazis at Stalingrad-that army had a higher replacement rate and American guns and foodstuffs going into it. Not to mention that the Soviet Union was stronger than modern Russia, and they still lost in Afghanistan against a bunch of cave-dwelling goat-fuckers with American MANPADs.

From what little I have heard about Russian/Soviet practice in the attack, they like to use divisions for 2-3 days straight, until exhausted. Then follow-on divisions come in. Could be happening now, lead divisions getting worn out. Then you need more divisions to replace them. Putin may not be able to do this for very long. Much of his reserve forces are nowhere near ready for combat. There are also many other commitments to be met, The Ukrainians can mobilize reserves from the western parts of the country with no fear of an attack from the west. Yeah, the Ukrainians will also get tired but they are defending their homes.

When both sides are getting tired, the more motivated side will win. And the west will make sure that the Ukrainians have all the equipment they need.

Not enough in itself to let the Ukrainians defeat the Russians, but could be enough for Putin to realize the game cannot be won without a substantial mobilization, with the attendant effects on Russian transportation, logistics, and the economy. Ukraine can have some confidence of Western help in dealing with the war's economic effects. Russia is now dealing with increasingly tough economic sanctions.

The most Ukraine can hope for is a draw. But a draw would be enough to make Putin look like a clown and preserve their nation. While at the same time, his people's economy will sink to the depths, to the point where it's just going to be a white man's version of Saudi Arabia.

Have said here many times that the Russian and Chinese militaries are just as screwed up as ours, in their own ways, Believe this statement has been borne out in the case of Russia.

It's even worse, since these armies are mostly designed to keep the locals in check and fight the odd banana republic, not fight a protracted war against a motivated and well-armed opponent.

Vlad, pal, declare victory and go home.

That's the best thing he can do right now. Stop this madness before more Russian lives are lost.

You're putting enormous amounts of stock into the some shaky internet videos and the rather obviously embellished claims of the Ukrainian government. I think you're a bit premature in declaring Russia's air force to have failed.

Not just them, but the claims of most outlets online. Who am I to trust? The world, or Russia's claims? The fact that I can still see a live feed of Kiev still standing as of now is proof that Russia isn't as strong as it claims, and the evidence brought by other posters here are more than enough to convince me.

 

[JosephStalin]

You're putting enormous amounts of stock into the some shaky internet videos and the rather obviously embellished claims of the Ukrainian government. I think you're a bit premature in declaring Russia's air force to have failed.

I don't think so. The Russians should have had air supremacy very quickly. Still don't have it where they need it most. The Russians haven't lost. They simply aren't winning as Putin expected. Think the Russians expected a Denmark, which put up a token resistance and threw in the towel. Hasn't happened, and apparently the Ukrainians hit a base in Russia itself.

Kind of like the big bully who just got a bloody nose from a smaller kid - the bigger kid will win in the end, but has been shown to have definite feet of clay. And image is everything.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

That was before we had modern technology and weaponry. If Russia can't even own the skies after invading a fucking next-door neighbor, a former client-state, then it doesn't look like they can do so at all.

I would recommend you look back to see how long it took for the US military to reach Baghdad in the 2003 invasion and that was considered " a blitz," interestingly the opposition tends to dislike hostile armies moving through their country and do naughty things like shooting at them and blowing bridges. At Najaf the US lost 30 Apaches and several armored vehicles to a military that is worse off than Ukraine is. The gap between Russia and Ukraine isn't THAT far, its mere numerical and stuff like wireguided anti-tank missile platforms are a huge difference compared to the 2003 invasion. NATO has been funneling these kind of weapons into the country for months and they're not exactly easy to deal with.

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

This is like bad video game villain plan shit.

Dude threatened to destroy the Internet and colony drop the ISS. Just saying, poisoning a major water source would be the least idiotic Bond villain bullshit he can think of.

If Putin goes full Kefka, I demand he paint his face and play Dancing Mad at every press conference.

 

[Ow The Edge]

I don't think so. The Russians should have had air supremacy very quickly. Still don't have it where they need it most. The Russians haven't lost. They simply aren't winning as Putin expected. Think the Russians expected a Denmark, which put up a token resistance and threw in the towel. Hasn't happened, and apparently the Ukrainians hit a base in Russia itself.

Kind of like the big bully who just got a bloody nose from a smaller kid - the bigger kid will win in the end, but has been shown to have definite feet of clay. And image is everything.

Think what you want, but I think it is far too early to start declaring a Russian failure. Kiev is likely to fall soon, they seem to be rolling up the south handily, and the Ukrainian government is showing signs of desperation..

 

[NJBear]

What the hell is with people making declarations that the Russians have failed after two days? Even the most curb-stomp of curb-stomps wasn't over in a fucking weekend.

Russia has not turned Kiev into Dresden. So they are losers. I find Russia's restraint refreshing.

I certainly don't want mass casualties. It could be over tomorrow if Ukraine cedes the area of ethnic cleansing against Russians and promise not to join NATO. All this anti Russian threats over the past years is what caused the breaking point.

And the ones who will suffer most are the Ukrainian people because of the oligarch assholes who run the country and Biden's poking the bee's nest over and over.