Russian Invasion of Ukraine (2022): Thread 1 - Ukrainian Liars vs Russian Liars with Air and Artillery Superiority

[Aidan]

The lowest effort method is to just plug "twitter video downloader," "youtube downloader," or whatever site as applicable into a search engine, and then plug the link to the tweet into the applicable field. If you want to figure out something more advanced then you can fuck around with programs like youtube-dl.

Archive of the vid in the tweet you linked:
View attachment 3019968

I also found the following vid from a Russian state media outlet linked in the replies:

Archive:
View attachment 3019971

youtube-dl is old news, yt-dlp is the de facto successor just as an FYI, though maybe youtube-dl works well again now that it's being updated.

 

[JustSomeDong]

Anyone else bummed that war propaganda has deteriorated into 56 year old government officials making catty, viral tweets for the American public to like and retweet?

No i find it really entertaining

Both. It's like one of those weird emotions only the germans really have a word for.

 

[Vaclav]

Or maybe Russia has been really careful with troop discipline and Ukraine hasn't been able to find/"find" any rape stories yet.

I'm amazed at the restraint they've shown, going as far as to carefully dodge the people trying to pull a Tank Man. They've done a good job hammering into the troops that "if you rape and pillage and there's one person around with a phone camera, we lose."

 

[Hackallier]

For some reason, there are reports that Russian airborne units are landing in Brody.

Helicopter doing an attack run in Brody:

 

[Blewberry Nausea]

Goddammit how can you be so fucking out of touch to be someone who has literally never fought a war in your life and go and tell a bunch of people you don’t know to risk their lives fighting someone you don’t like? What kind of sick faggot does that? Only some dopamine deprived asshole in need of entertainment and so up his own ass he could never for one second think he might be wrong would do such a thing. Especially when he has no actual experience doing anything around military equipment or fighting as a partisan. But it’s the cool thing to do right now so yep every woke faggot is gonna give their two cents now.

Please give me my MATI rates because holy shit am I right now. Ugh.

 

[Richardface]

Both. It's like one of those weird emotions only the germans really have a word for.

The word you're thinking of is fremdschämen aka feeling embarrassment on behalf of someone too stupid to know they should be embarassed

 

[OG Swolemaster]

Saw some CNN clip with talking head in the US condemning how terrible this is and that Putin is directly responsible for the first war in Europe since WWII.

Umm you motherfucker forget about how you carpet bombed Yugoslavia? I'm in no position to decide who is right and who is wrong here but I'm sure as shit not taking a morality lecture from Amerimutts (or a history lesson for that matter).

The average American is historically illiterate when it comes to their own country and can’t identify Yugoslavia’s successor states on a map.

 

[MazdamundiDidNothingWrong]

>That cage isn't going to do jack shit but make the warhead stronger
View attachment 3019969
There are times where I really hate the internet.

Not my fault you can't be assed to read any documents on the subject matter, especially with the internet making said material publicly available

Shaped Charge - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics

www.sciencedirect.com

25.3.2 Applications​

The empirical result [10] indicates that optimum stand-off is from 2 to 6 charge diameters; the best penetration is obtained at a cone angle of 42 degree; penetration can be 4–6 diameters and even reach 12;​

In this case with a 127mm warhead with like what the javelin has, the optimum distance for the penetrator could be 6*127, so even with 750mm of spacing you're not doing shit. And if it's standoff is at 12 calibers then you'd need ~1500mm of air before you see any meaningful loss in penetration.

 

[Richardface]

For some reason, there are reports that Russian airborne units are landing in Brody.
View attachment 3019982
Helicopter doing an attack run in Brody:
View attachment 3019983

Thats pretty far west and very hostile territory, maybe to cut the roads and railways preventing Western ammo and missile supplies getting in?

 

[ForTheHoard]

>That cage isn't going to do jack shit but make the warhead stronger
View attachment 3019969
There are times where I really hate the internet.

It's called a Q-Net. They're designed to eat RPG rockets, so I don't know if it would do shit against a javelin where there's tandem shape charges.

 

[khaine]

I don't think anyone has posted this, but this blog post is interesting Key Points:

How Will This End?

Badly. Beyond that, no one really knows. Here I want to caution you: a lot of the information you will see over the next few days is coming through the fog of war. Some of it will be intentional disinformation. No one in the media or on social media really has any kind of precise view of what is going on. Even the intelligence agencies – for Russia, Ukraine but also NATO countries – are likely struggling to get a firm grasp on what is happening where.

Moreover, war is not the realm of certainties, but, as Clausewitz says (drink!) subject to “the play of probabilities and chance” (which is to say, ‘friction’). War is unpredictable by its very nature. No one knows what is going to happen, but we can venture some very general suggestions of the most likely course of events.

First, Putin is likely to carry this war to its conclusion. The reputational cost of turning back now, with blood already shed, would be catastrophic. Putin’s only way out is through, unfortunately. I am not an expert on Russia’s internal politics, but the consensus of the experts is that popular opposition to this war, even if extreme, is unlikely to be able to force Putin to stop it, because Russia is an authoritarian state. So even if it is not in the interest of Russiansto continue, it is in the interest of Putin to do so. Consequently I do not expect a peaceful solution to present itself any time soon.

Second, the balance of equipment and numbers suggests that Russian forces are very likely to win in the field. There is a range of possibilities within that statement, from a relatively quick victory with the Ukrainian Armed Forces simply collapsing, to a slogging campaign that morphs almost seamlessly into insurgency as it proceeds, to, of course, the small but non-zero chance that the balance of morale and ability surprises everyone and the Russian offensive fails. This last possibility has been judged by the experts as being very unlikely, and I tend to agree.

At the same time, as I am writing this (now late in the evening EST on the 24th) it is increasingly clear that ‘swift Russian victory’ is also a rapidly vanishing possibility. Ukrainian forces do not appear to have collapsed or melted away but are standing to fight and while Ukraine has comparatively little in the way of air assets and air defenses, what they do have seems to be at least somewhat operational, which is something of a surprise given Russian superiority in indirect fires. Consequently, while the chances of a clear Ukrainian victory remain small, the scenario in which Ukrainian resistance, transitioning from open-field combat to urban combat to insurgency as necessary, inflicts heavy or even crippling losses on Russian troops now seems increasingly plausible.

That said, the maximal nature of Russia’s goals – conquest and regime change – impose considerable challenges all on their own. Russian troops will need not only to seize the country but also hold it and support the administration of whatever government Putin puts in place, against what is likely to be intense popular resistance. They will also need to take Ukraine’s major cities, particularly Kyiv. Urban warfare is brutally difficult and has in the past not been a particular strength of the Russian Federation.

That does not mean Ukrainian resistance is pointless here. Instead, both the initial, conventional stage of resistance and the likely secondary insurgency phase push towards the same objectives: making Russian occupation so costly in blood and treasure that it cannot be maintained. Here the Ukrainians have a real chance of eventual success if they remain committed to the effort, while the challenges for Russia are immense. Consider the US experience: Ukraine is about 10% more populous and about a third larger than Iraq. Whereas the funds for Iraqi insurgents often had to come via limited dark money or relatively weak state sponsors (like Iran) Ukrainian resistance, meanwhile, is likely to be bankrolled and supplied by the richest countries in the world able to use the traditional banking and finance system to do it (either covertly or overtly) and move those supplies through transport routes in well-developed NATO countries whose airspace is effectively inviolate. And finally, Russia has less than half of the United States’ population and about a sixth of the US’ economic production (adjusted for purchasing power). The United States in Iraq also had allies, both in the region and also providing troops; Russia has no real allies in this fight, though China may seek to keep Russia from becoming entirely economically isolated.
Russia is thus embarking, with fewer friends and fewer resources, on a war that may prove to be far more difficult than the wars the United States struggled with in Afghanistan and Iraq. And of course the very fact that Ukraine can win this in the long run will serve to stiffen Ukrainian resistance. Meanwhile, it is not entirely clear that Putin’s war has widespread popular support in Russia, though of course getting any clear sense of the popular mood within an authoritarian state is extremely difficult. Nevertheless, flagging public support at home, even in an authoritarian state where there are no political channels for that opposition, can translate into morale problems at the front, as Russians learned in 1917.

Overall, my sense of the military-affairs/international relations community is that the general opinion is that Putin is making a mistake here even though he is likely to win on the ground at first: the costs of controlling Ukraine are likely to be high, the rewards likely to be low, and this aggression is likely to solidify, rather than weaken NATO. Long-term success seems very difficult to achieve. I tend to concur with that assessment, though I’ll admit there is a lot of room for unlikely or unexpected outcomes.

 

[Wyald]

Russian column burned near kherson

 

[CAPTAIN HAPPY]

Putin is so based woaaah

Russian President Vladimir Putin Meets with World Economic Forum Chairman Klaus Schwab

forumspb.com

 

[nonperson]

Goddammit how can you be so fucking out of touch to be someone who has literally never fought a war in your life and go and tell a bunch of people you don’t know to risk their lives fighting someone you don’t like? What kind of sick faggot does that? Only some dopamine deprived asshole in need of entertainment and so up his own ass he could never for one second think he might be wrong would do such a thing. Especially when he has no actual experience doing anything around military equipment or fighting as a partisan. But it’s the cool thing to do right now so yep every woke faggot is gonna give their two cents now.

Please give me my MATI rates because holy shit am I right now. Ugh.

It's similar to those tips you saw everywhere on Twitter during the mostly-peaceful protests: how to topple a statue, how to blind the police with lasers, how to repell smoke grenades with umbrellas, how to make shields out of random plastic junk, how to make shit and piss balloon-bombs, etc

I don't think they realize what war means, they probably think they'd just get arrested and bailed out or some shit. Like a spoiled child that has never faced any real conscequences for anything.

 

[Green Man]

I went to sleep at post 711. What did I miss?

Some basketcase sperging about bio-weapons labs in Ukraine and how Russia could totally delete it and all the pathogens stored there with some fictional mega-thermite bomb or a nuclear warhead that somehow doesn't immediately make its presence known with a huge fucking fireball.

Not too much else, although said basketcase did claim JFJ is 'stealing valour', I'm excitedly waiting for that particular chicken to come home to roost.

 

[Harvey sheckelburg]

I went to sleep at post 711. What did I miss?

A bunch of dummies fighting about make-believe bio-weapon factories and other autistic shit. People need to stop responding to retards. The tread moves fast enough as it is and you can't change someone's mind if its already barely functioning.

 

[Ponzo]

The direct invasion of the second largest country in Europe (after Russia), tanks rolling into a major european capital a few hundred kilometers away, the potential for this to escalate beyond Ukraine - yeah I can see how they'd be a bit more nervous about it.

So was americas war in the middle east and northern africa. The US completely wrecked those places in the last 20 years and sent millions of rapefugees towards europe. I hope all this escalates beyond ukraine because fuck the NATO and fuck the UN.

 

[Richardface]

View attachment 3019993

Dead bodies seem to get his column burning if you know what I mean

 

[Nall]

Has Josh said anything about his situation yet?

 

[Blewberry Nausea]

Um don’t you mean when we SAVED BOSNIA from the evil dictator Slobodan Milosevic?