Because you're still allowing yourself to be swayed by the media psy-ops that we're swimming in.
Everything that's been reported in the west about the Ukraine is fake. Every uplifting story about beauty queens picking up AKs, brave pilots shooting down Ruski jets, newlyweds fighting together on the front lines, all of it is faked. The story about the Ukrainian doctor saying goodbye to his young son to go take up arms against the invader? Turns out he was an ethnic Russian from the Donbas about to go to the front to fight the Ukrainians. Western media give zero fucks about pumping out propaganda at the best of times for even trivial reasons. But now there is an actual war launched by the human being they despise the most? Gloves are off.
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The Ukrainian President is currently holed up in a bunker in Lvov waiting for his transport to Dubai should the peace talks not go so well.
The Russians are currently surrounding every major strategic objective on their list and about to call in their actual army to finish things off should the peace talks not go well.
That;s what's actually happening right now. And no Putin isn't gambling, he isn't irrational, he's already won.