Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Übertroon]

Isn't it kind of true though that red dots and iron sights are roughly the same thing. As in you can't like magnify either of them, just adjust for elevation and windage and then fire.

Yes, your usual red dots do not offer increased magnification, and that's the only place where their comment isn't completely in lala land. Do you honestly believe that most soldiers prefer iron sights over optics? That the spetznas chooses not to kit out their weapons because that's something only the tacky Chechens do?

 

[RodgerDodger]

I wonder to what degree foreign components are used. Soviet tanks like the T-64 might have their weaknesses, but the parts were sourced in the USSR or at worst the Comecon trade bloc. Foreign parts can make good business sense, but with arms manufacture there has to be strategic concerns, even if it costs money. Trade connections can be broken. I wonder if this will result in more oldies or oddities like the T-80U UM2 dragged out of storage. Perhaps a Russian museum's King Tiger could fight once again.

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The Romans believed that if a man in politics was bribed he should follow the briber's intentions, but there's no honor among thieves. People like them will sell out everyone but themselves, their families and their closest friends (and that might be expecting too much) if it profits them.

Apparently Russia, with Glabalization, has lost the capacity to produce modern quality chips and circuit boards. Or rather largely never developed it. This will quickly become an issue for things like advanced munitions and rocketry parts.

 

[Elbereth]

People here really don't realise that Russia is fuck. They are fuck, but not right now, or in two months, but they are completly and utterly in 2023 and so on.

 

[IamnottheNSA]

This thread needs more memes

Agreed. Less seetheposting, more sneedposting.

 

[Mukhrani]

I'm convinced that China's going to be the one to win in the long term from this conflict while America loses and Russia just follows its normal downward trajectory driven by demographic decline. I'd wager that that big China-India-Russia alliance was set up knowing that this would happen. China saw the Washington state department doing what it does best (being completely pants-on-head retarded), and recognized that we were backing Russia into a corner in Europe while failing to pivot to Asia. They knew that Russia would snap back at some point. They knew that America, having unseriously pushed into Ukraine for decades because of a mix of earnest 'democracy will win' and cynical 'we can skim some of the top', never had any intention of seriously confronting Russia over this piece of real estate. They knew that the playbook of the West for decades has been to mindlessly sanction anyone who defies them. You don't have to be playing 4D chest to see that this would go down: that the Americans would try to cut Russia off from the world markets, and that it would present a golden opportunity to unite a huge swathe of land and an enormous amount of the world's population, and make them reliant on parallel systems which you have designed. You can cut off Iran and North Korea from the world economy. But the more pieces you cut off, the more alternatives the people who get cut off have. Russia isn't going to revive its glory days, but this wasn't a stupid move for them - sometimes there are no smart moves when you get backed into a corner. It was a stupid move for us to put them into a position where they would do something like this, and then be completely reliant on the Chinese, basically driving three regional powers that should have been played off each other together against us.

 

[Übertroon]

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

There is the downside, in that dismounted infantry are not capable of advancing as far as vehicles, and can be exposed to enemy fire. At the same time though, light infantry is not restricted by fuel, or road access.

Modern light infantry will just use Toyota trucks, quads and dirt bikes to resolve such issues. The goal is just to get infantry around to plant IED, fire Javelins and snipe at the enemy.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Isn't it kind of true though that red dots and iron sights are roughly the same thing. As in you can't like magnify either of them, just adjust for elevation and windage and then fire.

It depends on what optic your using. Even if it doesn't, a red dot will help you get on target faster and more accurately. That goes double for AK type rifles, their iron sights are awful. The design of the rifle necessitates the rear sight be relatively far forward, giving it a relatively short sight radius for its size. Plus the sights themselves aren't anything great themselves.

 

[stakenifes]

The Ukrainian Army published a picture of a strange container they managed to get their hands on in the Kiev area. OSINT autists believe that this is the command post for a Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system. If true, I will preempt @JosephStalin and say that Langley will be chomping at the bit to get their hands on it.
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Wtf lol, worst attempt at trying to make this discreet? Is that a fucking path/road like 10m behind it?

 

[Lone MacReady]

They are fuck, but not right now, or in two months, but they are completly and utterly in 2023 and so on.

Are you talking about America's Rothschild ponzi economy?

 

[Aidan]

Apparently Russia, with Glabalization, has lost the capacity to produce modern quality chips and circuit boards. Or rather largely never developed it. This will quickly become an issue for things like advanced munitions and rocketry parts.

I thought Russia had relatively shitty domestic chip production specifically to support military equipment. I can see that still being impacted though but they're friends with China who produces plenty of that stuff and no one is going to sanction them into oblivion even if they commit literal genocide so I can see them being alright on the chip front.

 

[Getting tard comed]

It's quite funny that new russiaboy cope is "3 days left", because when invasion started Kiev was supposed to fall in 3 days
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It's a cope to hold people to their own predictions? Ok bruh.

@Übertroon you missed the point entirely. Probably because you don't know how Russia won the third Chechnyan war. Hint it has something to do with camping out at cities. And if you bothered to look into how the third Chechnyan was resolved, you'd also realize they won't have to. Please opine in ignorance more.

Which one is you btw.

3 days left!
5 days left!
20 days left!
43 days left!

 

[St.Davis]

Its been 30 days. And I would not call the Russian advance halted. Stopped dead in its tracks would be a more accurate statement. Russia had strategic surprise in the opening weeks of this war. That is going to change as the spring thaw sets in and it becomes easier to move about the country. Russia may have the larger army, but it does not have the larger force in theater. And that is the key caveat here. The way they prosecuted this war meant they had 30 days to win it. Now Russia has another 30-60 days to hang on to what its taken, and hopefully massively reinforce. If the battle lines have not meaningfully shifted by June, Ukraine is almost certainly going to counter attack.

The Russian Army is three sheets to the wind right now, and it seems nobody is daring to tell Putin this fundamental truth. Russia needs to initiate general mobilization now, and begin massively reinforcing its fronts in Ukraine with reserves and conscripts. If they don't the troops engaged are going to break. Its as simple as that. Even the best units cannot sustain 3 months of conventional warfare without rest, refit and reinforcement. All the units currently getting kicked in the teeth are going to need to be cycled to the rear and replaced with fresh units soon.

Russian offense right now is stalled. All damage they do now is through missiles and air force. They started long game.

However, the truth to the matter is that Russian long term perspectives are looking bad. Their logistics sucks. Sanctions are yet to hit with full force, and already every european country is looking to relpace Russian oil and gas with alternatives. By the end of year Europe will consume much less russian gas that they consume now. With the time internal pressure will only grow stronger, and economy weaker.

I don't see any win condition for Russia. And I definitelly don't see any scenario where Russia is better off than before the war.

The Russians have been advancing forward fairly methodically, as far as I have seen. Even with the apparent downplaying of their control on most of the "official" maps, They have significant groups of Ukrainian soldiers being herded into pockets (With some in the process of being closed, such as Mauripol.).

Ukraine is going to counter attack with what, exactly? Screaming hordes of conscripts? You say yourself that they don't have any meaningful armoured corps. The Ukies are doing as well as they are because they're fighting broadly like guerillas.

I do not think there is a realistic scenario in which The Ukraine wins this conflict

 

[Jump]

People here really don't realise that Russia is fuck. They are fuck, but not right now, or in two months, but they are completly and utterly in 2023 and so on.

Nah they will be fine. They will just have to start doing what the USA does now. Sucking Xi's cock.

I think Ukraine is the one who is fuck

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

The hohols are not winning . They're slowing the vodka niggers' advance, and making it rather harder than expected, but they are far from winning this war, christ.

This is also not an end to the argument of "Mech vs Motor", Russian tank doctrine has been rather... strange during this conflict. Other powers are likely to devise effective countermeasures to Javelins, Starstreaks/etc, be it through doctrine or technology.

There is two phases to any war, the direct battle between the national army and then the occupation. Americans should know full well that the direct battle can be won overwhelmingly and the occupation lost overwhelmingly. In Iraq and Afghanistan the US had effectively no influence or control outside of the capital and the immediate areas around their bases. When we fled Iraq this became apparent almost immediately when the Sunni area formed itself into ISIS. Afghanistan ate shit so fucking fast that people still cannot believe it. Russia will almost certainly manage to rout and destroy the UA but lose the occupation.

 

[Psychotron]

Russia will almost certainly manage to rout and destroy the UA but lose the occupation.

They have the DeNazi card where they can round up populations.

 

[Mr Bunny]

They have the DeNazi card where they can round up populations.

Base. I love genocide, the less humans the better.

 

[Richardface]

I think all the hot "Russia is losing" takes are predicated on the France 1940/Iraq 2003 operational strategic model where you capture the enemy capital and this results in the enemy army surrendering wholesale and thus organised resistance ending, so Russian success would be as per France/Iraq the rapid gain of territory culminating in the capture of the capital

Per Col. MacGregor's analysis the Russians may not believe the capture of Kiev would result in Ukranian capitulation (seems correct) and so they need to eliminate the Ukranian army by actually destroying it in the field, which is harder to measure as it requires accurate casualty estimates of the Ukrainian forces which we do not have

If the second goal is more accurate the early run to Kiev and thunder runs across the country were not a "blitzkrieg" attempt but were to gain sufficient territory to pin down and support encirclement of Ukranian formations.

Not saying the Russians are or are not doing as well as they'd hoped jut saying measuring their success solely by territorial gains is based on one strategic model which may or may not be the one the Russians are using.

 

[St.Davis]

There is two phases to any war, the direct battle between the national army and then the occupation. Americans should know full well that the direct battle can be won overwhelmingly and the occupation lost overwhelmingly. In Iraq and Afghanistan the US had effectively no influence or control outside of the capital and the immediate areas around their bases. When we fled Iraq this became apparent almost immediately when the Sunni area formed itself into ISIS. Afghanistan ate shit so fucking fast that people still cannot believe it. Russia will almost certainly manage to rout and destroy the UA but lose the occupation.

I'm of the opinion that they'll not really be occupying much of the country, honestly. Luhansk and Donetsk occupy themselves , so it's likely just going to be the coastal corridor, as that's the only part I think Russia is going to care about. Will they necessarily need to occupy the remainder of The Ukraine?

This is on top of the fact that The Ukraine isnt Afghanistan. There aren't quite so many squirrel holes and mountainous regions for insurgents to hang out in.

 

[Übertroon]

It's a cope to hold people to their own predictions? Ok bruh.

@Übertroon you missed the point entirely. Probably because you don't know how Russia won the third Chechnyan war. Hint it has something to do with camping out at cities. And if you bothered to look into how the third Chechnyan was resolved, you'd also realize they won't have to. Please opine in ignorance more.

Which one is you btw.

3 days left!
5 days left!
20 days left!
43 days left!

lol
You're the one ignoring my point.
It doesn't matter if they'll win, I'm asking you if it's going to be worth it.
Russia lost 7000 men having to camp out the Chechens. Imagine now having to repeat that for a country that is 40 times larger.
"No you see Ivan. tens of thousands of dead Russians and not a single dead NATO soldier was truly the greatest victory against the NATO aggressor"