Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%
  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%
  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%
  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%
  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%

  • Total voters
    2,360
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Considering how the Russkies were treating the Crimean Tatars, I am shocked it took this long.
It's most likely Chechens that are opposed to current Chechen Republic's state. Supporters of Ichkeria and all that.
I think they spoke chechen when they weren't screeching their favorite phrase.
They are just as militant and have quite a sizable diaspora in Ukraine.
 
lol
You're the one ignoring my point.
It doesn't matter if they'll win, I'm asking you if it's going to be worth it.
Russia lost 7000 men having to camp out the Chechens. Imagine now having to repeat that for a country that is 40 times larger.
"No you see Ivan. tens of thousands of dead Russians and not a single dead NATO soldier was truly the greatest victory against the NATO aggressor"
Bigger issue I see is Ukraine sharing multiple borders with NATO countries, it will be pretty trivial for NATO to continue to smuggle arms in Ukraine after a war is over and if Russia fully controls Ukraine through either Annexation or by a Puppet, and really Russia wouldn't be able to do a damn thing, because Russia was doing the same thing to Ukraine for 8 years, and also, you know, nukes.
Look i try to be respectful on this internet bullying forum and thank you for your service in Iraq simper fi and all but i think you spent too much time downwind of burn pits in Iraq and having been in a conflict you should understand you have very little information about the true state of the conflict and shouldn't be spouting definitive statements about what is and must happen like a swivel eyed loon who has rediscovered an old cache of expired us army go pills
It's an understatement to say Russia needs to send more men in, they sent 200,000 men tops, Ukraine's total army, counting active and reserve, is almost twice that number, and only around 50k-75k of active troops were deployed when the invasion began.

You simply can't take a country with a military the size and equipment quality of Ukraine with only 200,000 troops, that are also stretched across at least 4 fronts, if a country invades another, and both are comparable in terms of equipment, troop quality, etc. the invading side needs numbers on their side. Counting injuries it's starting to become safe to say Russia's causalities are somewhere in the ballpark of 20,000-25,000, as usually for every fatality you get 3 wounded. meaning they've already lost 1/10th of their forces.

Realistically, you'd probably need somewhere around 400,000 troops to take Ukraine, maybe you could get away with 300,000, but that would require extremely good planning and logistics, which is the exact opposite of what Russia has.
 
They're not necessarily as high. I ran across an interesting twitter thread from a retired US general earlier today about the issue of Russian losses and his opinion on the subject. The short of it being that in his judgment, most of the vehicles that Russia's using are death traps if they get hit. While Ukraine's using a lot of the same shit, they're the ones using infantry with anti-tank rockets to blow up vehicles which will usually contain multiple people that'll be injured or killed. He also thinks Ukraine's better able to treat and evacuate its wounded than Russia is. If his opinion is accurate, it would certainly explain quite a bit about why estimates of Russia's military losses have ranged so much higher than estimates of Ukraine's military losses.

So it's quite possible for Ukraine's military losses to be much lower than Russia's simply as a matter of how they're fighting. Ukraine can lose one or two guys per vehicle destroyed by infantry weapons, and still come out ahead.

You also need to account for Russia's massive superiority in aircraft, long range missiles, and artillery. They're historically the real killers, not small unit actions
 
They no longer have to participate in the farce that is Eurovision
That is a total win right there.
Interesting... Do you think there's a nearby country that might want to sell them this energy? Others in this thread would have me believe there is not.
Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia.
 
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Admittedly I don't see Zelensky ever cucking out. The guy seems as though he's actively trying to increase civilian casualties in order to try and draw NATO into the war. I think the only thing that will make Zelensky himself surrender "officially" is him being personally captured or something.
he can't cuck out because he was never in the driver's seat to begin with. he's going to last as long as his bagman at the bank where all the foreign aid is going can continue skimming and then head for the exits when the money spigots shut off



You also need to account for Russia's massive superiority in aircraft, long range missiles, and artillery. They're historically the real killers, not small unit actions
you are correct, 90% of casualties in warfare come from crew served weapons, artillery, or getting bombed. the only reason to give infantry a rifle and not a pea shooter like an uzi in the six day war is feeling underpowered leads to more timid infantry
 
Interesting... Do you think there's a nearby country that might want to sell them this energy? Others in this thread would have me believe there is not.



The HEAT shell did the same thing, but designs adapted to counter this development. I see little reason the same is not true of Javelins/NLAWs/Starstreaks.
Which only increases the expense of the vehicle. There is a law of diminishing returns here. Nobody is gonna put point defense lasers on a tank. At least not in this century. Its also moot, because Russia has gone to war with an army made up vehicles the Javeline and NLAW are specifically made to destroy. Whether or not countermeasures are developed in the next 10 years is irrelevant because Russia needs them right now.
 
It's rather clear that I'm stating that these things will not amount to Russia losing the war.
I don't get up and go to work because working brings my heart pure joy. I go to work because I get paid, and then I can go to shop and buy some shit like food or something. When I lose the job, I don't buy shit. When enough people lose their jobs, people doesn't buy wares, enterprises goes bankrupt. Enterprises going bankrupt, mean that they stop producing all the things people want to buy. Like soldiers, who would like to have something more in life than bread and vodka. At some point of crisis, it is not only difficult to support soldiers with their "wants", but also with their "needs". All of which impacts their effectiveness and possibilities of continuing operations.

Add to that internal disapproval. Predicted inflation is 20%, predicted gdp drop is 10%, so roughly average russian will consume 1/3 less that before war. Do you think that they will be able to push that all on "the rotten west"? At some point people are angry, no matter if Putin tells them that's because of USA or not. You will need extra forces to keep peace internally. Wich turns into additional expenses.

All this expenses are rising and rising, toghether with regular war expenses. What about incomes and savings? 460 miliards USD out of 600 miliards has been frozen. Now it is spring, so Europe uses less natural gas. In all EU, including germany there are opening possibilities of importing gas through other channels like from Katar. By winter 2022 Europe as a whole will import much less gas. Moreover many, many of Russian oil loads can't have a buyer because of blockade.

At some point, gears will stop spinning.
 
Which only increases the expense of the vehicle. There is a law of diminishing returns here. Nobody is gonna put point defense lasers on a tank. At least not in this century. Its also moot, because Russia has gone to war with an army made up vehicles the Javeline and NLAW are specifically made to destroy. Whether or not countermeasures are developed in the next 10 years is irrelevant because Russia needs them right now.

The ARENA, TROPHY, Quick-Kill, and LEDS-150 systems might beg to differ.

Also: This is hardly irrelevant, your argument was on whether this conflict is spelling the end of the tank, not the efficacy of Russian tanks specifically in this conflict.
 
Which is why I have always been on team light infantry. Tanks are imposing, but even the US found out to its detriment they are useless without a swarm of light infantry around them to keep the enemy away from them. Which sort of defeats their advantages. Which is the whole mechanized advance thing. The idea of the armored spearhead is nice and all, but IMO, all Tanks offer is artillery support. Which would be better served by, well, actual artillery. Mechanized (and Armored) artillery behind the infantry line that is capable of responding to fire requests from the front. That is where any expensive Armored unit needs to be.

The advent of the Javeline and the NLAW pretty much ends the argument. The idea that any retard grunt holding a 50,000 dollar missile can destroy a multimillion dollar tank should send shivers through any procurement officers spine. Its being done wholesale in this war.
and if the military was holding their own pursestrings it would. the US military has been findomed for a century now. tanks should have vanished with the prop plane back in the 1950s. although if we're really being obnoxious we shouldn't have been investing so much in jet fighters too, those MANPADs show the US has been doing the equivalent of throwing money at a stripper because we're sure she loves us for the last 50 years.
 
I don't get up and go to work because working brings my heart pure joy. I go to work because I get paid, and then I can go to shop and buy some shit like food or something. When I lose the job, I don't buy shit. When enough people lose their jobs, people doesn't buy wares, enterprises goes bankrupt. Enterprises going bankrupt, mean that they stop producing all the things people want to buy. Like soldiers, who would like to have something more in life than bread and vodka. At some point of crisis, it is not only difficult to support soldiers with their "wants", but also with their "needs". All of which impacts their effectiveness and possibilities of continuing operations.

Add to that internal disapproval. Predicted inflation is 20%, predicted gdp drop is 10%, so roughly average russian will consume 1/3 less that before war. Do you think that they will be able to push that all on "the rotten west"? At some point people are angry, no matter if Putin tells them that's because of USA or not. You will need extra forces to keep peace internally. Wich turns into additional expenses.

All this expenses are rising and rising, toghether with regular war expenses. What about incomes and savings? 460 miliards USD out of 600 miliards has been frozen. Now it is spring, so Europe uses less natural gas. In all EU, including germany there are opening possibilities of importing gas through other channels like from Katar. By winter 2022 Europe as a whole will import much less gas. Moreover many, many of Russian oil loads can't have a buyer because of blockade.

At some point, gears will stop spinning.
I am still standing by my argument, despite all the neg votes from Putin shills, that Russia will lose this war if it becomes protracted. The entire set up for this invasion, both tactically and strategically relied upon a decapitation strike. Which is why we saw the absolute insanity of Russia trying to seize Kiev via an Air Assault operation. Even the USA was not so bold as to attempt that shit in the 2003 war. The 101st did tactical air assaults up the line of advance. They didn't go straight for Baghdad and try and take the city on Day 1. But that is what Russia tried to do.

It underscores the fundamental issue. Putin was so focused on the meta game, isolating Ukraine from the west, to the point the USA pulled out all its diplomats and essentially washed its hands of Ukraine, that it failed to focus on the game that mattered. Defeating the Ukrainian Army. A month into the Iraq Invasion, and we had "there are no tanks in Baghdad" and Saddam Hussein was nowhere to be seen. A month into this war and the Ukraine generals staff is still giving daily updates, the Ukrainian President is still shitting on Russia in front of western parliaments, Russia has failed to take any of its primary objectives and the Ukrainian Army, never mind partisan forces, is still a force in being.

This has forced the west to actually "do stuff" beyond the ritual wailing and gnashing of teeth. Russia's economy cannot sustain a protracted war with Ukraine. Ukraine for its part does not NEED an economy. All they need is to keep providing fresh meat to grab western guns and head for the front. Russia did not bring enough troops foreword to fight this kind of war, and its not activating the necessary reserves for them to fight the war they now have. Those Russian units in Ukraine are going to break unless they are withdrawn and replaced. Its not a question of if. Simply when.
 
It did take advantage of American fuckups, it was just not possible to overcome the gap fully. The equipment they had was designed around a 1970s nation state on nation state war. Iraq, even in 2003 still attempted to brawl with American forces, even then, they still managed to do significant damage in some battles such as Karbala where they damaged 30 Apaches so heavily that they had to be trashed. The Iraqi Army doctrine and equipment was designed to fight in a style they could not win against Coalition forces in the Gulf War and 2003. Ukrainian forces on the other hand have been designed from the ground up to be something of an insurgent force, they have APC, tanks, and leftover air assets from the Soviet era but for the most part NATO has just been handing them small arms stuff like Javelin and Stingers.

The US learned from Iraq and Afghanistan(both observing the Soviet war then personal experience) that the way to crush an enemy is to make them suffer heavy attrition from irregular warfare. The US suffered around 40k casualties from Iraq and about 22k for Afghanistan plus around 60k casualties from "Contractors" which range from Blackwater mercenaries to logistic guys for Halliburton driving a semi-truck. So we're looking at around 120k casualties give or take for America for the two wars. Keep in mind that America has one of the best medical evac, triage and field hospital systems in the world and when someone was "wounded" beyond 2004 it usually meant an IED or some incident involving an explosion which would rend off limbs and burn the flesh significantly. These military strategies are stuff that the Iraqi and Afghanistan pivoted to, Ukraine has been modeled around such a strategy by NATO and CIA handlers. Russia is going to suffer greatly, it has no allied forces involved to help bolster the numbers deployed and they're invading a country twice or three times as large as Iraq with half the men that the coalition deployed in 2003, I don't see this ending well for Russia at all. They're being far more diligent in clearing up hotspots before moving onward but I don't see this having much of a long term effect on the war in total, they just don't have enough manpower to capture and hold all of Ukraine, they'll need to pull conscripts in to man these pacified areas and the conscripts are going to eat shit to insurgent forces even harder than the professional military Russia has deployed.
The US got pwned in Iraq: it’s now a puppet of Iran.

The US got pwned by the Aghanis and had to leave the country with its tail between its legs after 20’years. Now they’re buddies with China.

I don’t think the US has learned a fucking thing.
 
If this war ends, I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine tells the U.S to fuck off like the Vietnamese did to the Chinese. But who knows?
I hope they do. When shit was about to hit the fan, Biden told the US Congress there was nothing he could do and Ukraine was fucked UwU. The US is a feckless ally and always has been. it gives me no joy saying this, but its true. Our government is controlled by Merchants, and they weigh every decision financially. They have no honor, and negative loyalty. They will sell their own mothers if they think it gets them ahead of the curve.
 
I hope they do. When shit was about to hit the fan, Biden told the US Congress there was nothing he could do and Ukraine was fucked UwU. The US is a feckless ally and always has been. it gives me no joy saying this, but its true. Our government is controlled by Merchants, and they weigh every decision financially. They have no honor, and negative loyalty. They will sell their own mothers if they think it gets them ahead of the curve.
I probably should've said that's if Ukraine even wins. Which I highly doubt.
 
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The US got pwned in Iraq: it’s now a puppet of Iran.

The US got pwned by the Aghanis and had to leave the country with its tail between its legs after 20’years. Now they’re buddies with China.

I don’t think the US has learned a fucking thing.
They don't have to. The dual-citizens in congress have always had their escape plan, this is a controlled demolition. From Britain to America, and America to China, the Neo-Silk Road beckons them.
 
Obesity is a simple matter of pushups.
We can whip some drafties into shape.
Would take 6-9 months from the time the first draftees were inducted until combat-ready infantry replacements would get to their units. While the draft machinery is in place, not as sure about the Army's ability to train large numbers of draftees at one time. Would there be enough bed spaces in barracks? Where would the additional drill sergeants/support personnel come from? Would there be any problems providing the additional uniforms/individual equipment? Would medical/dental treatment facilities be able to meet the surge? Could training/support facilities be used on a two-shift, six-day-a-week basis? Would there be any problems running dining halls basically on a 24/7 schedule? A great deal of planning is needed to be able to accommodate thousands of draftees coming in over a rather short period of time, followed by additional groups. Like to think the Army has some sort of plan in place.

While we're at it, while the Air Force/Navy/Marines would most likely not draft anyone, they could also need to deal with rapid expansion. The AF has only one basic training base. Believe the Navy and Marines each have two bases where basic training is conducted. Like to think these services, like the Army, have some sort of plan to accommodate a large, rapid influx of recruits.
 
Apparently Russia, with Glabalization, has lost the capacity to produce modern quality chips and circuit boards.
Russia in the same boat USA is in now.
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Chip fab's need lots of neon. Now China is going to end up having full control over the world's neon gas supply because Ukraine's neon refineries are fucked. Ukraine is where the rest of the world went for neon. Guess what, China refines their own and will still buy Russia's while the rest of the world wont.

You know what else is needed for chip manufacturing? Palladium.
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You know who has been making big moves in Africa to buy up all the mining companies? Ill give you all a hint. It rhymes with CHYNA.

So the USA is finally starting to talk about re-shoring chip manufacturing. Orange Man was right. We will build some fabs here again, great. But we can't make the basic raw materials anymore needed to feed that fab. And we don't make simple low profit components like capacitors and resistors anymore. We off shored all that to china because profit. Those factories all knocked down, superfund sites declared. Now we can't make the rest of the parts needed to populate that circuit board. Sad.

The USA spent 40 years gutting its manufacturing capability. I really don't think it has the will to reverse any of that.
 
Ok, Russia having fucked logistics and being right now most sanctioned nation on earth is news to you, or you just don't understand the effect of those?
Adidas and McDonalds leaving has very little bearing on the war, Russia is an exporter nation, not an importer, and will weather these sanctions far better than most would expect. Already the Ruble has stopped its free fall against the Euro and is rebounding to a degree. They have been expecting these sanctions since 2014 and have been preparing for them to drop, there has been some curveballs they probably did not expect like the oligarch having their Yachts stolen, but for the most part I suspect Russia is going to weather the sanctions far more effectively than the US would prefer. It is far more likely that this sperg out hurts the US more than Russia as the various other major powers begin to divest from the US led financial system.
 
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