It doesn't take a genius to realise Donbass wasn't the focus. If it was, there would have been no need to invade, or at most, to simply start "protective operations" or whatever term Putin wants to use in the areas claimed by the rebel groups. The fact is that the main thrust of this war was against Kiev. You don't have multiple divisional columns of tanks and trucks and MRAPs rushing down to Kiev alongside an air assault on a major airport in the capital unless the goal was regime toppling. That was the operational focus. You can argue Donbass is the strategic focus, in that Russia would like those regions to be confirmed as legally distinct from Ukraine post-invasion, but that was never going to happen by just fighting in Donbass and Putin knew it. What we see now is Russia attempting to achieve it's strategic goals in a new operation- the first failed, and now the war is being fought the exact opposite way they wanted. It absolutely is cope, not because of the talking points, but because it's just like the Ukrainian supporters were doing a month ago. "Actually Ukraine can lose XYZ, actually Russia doesn't need XYZ, actually this was a feint, actually Ghost of Kinevil is a good lie for morale, actually Russia is protector of tradcathfemboys, actually Ukraine is ready to push in Moscow tomorrow morning", it's all the same shit. Moskva being lost is a huge deal, Russia didn't "feint" an assault on Kiev only to take almost three weeks now to attack elsewhere, and Russia isn't the one who will have to rebuild countless cities if Ukraine even manages to take everything back.
I also agree we shouldn't believe anything. That's why I said "IF". That carries a lot of water. It makes the difference between Moskva being a potential lucky strike or a game changing strategic rebalance. I'm pro-Ukraine insofar as they are a sovereign state defending against an invasion. I have no illusions about the reality of this war. I had none at the start. My prediction from day one was that what is happening now with Ukraine defending but Russia being severely limited in their operational capabilities would occur, but with far more damage to Ukraine than we have seen. I didn't think they'd invade precisely because a rational actor would see there is a very limited chance of success. The war was probably decided in the first 48 hours when Zelenskyy decided to stay in Kiev and the Russians couldn't oust him. Both sides have lied throughout this. Western intelligence predicted the invasion and forced Putin to delay the date of attack. They've been providing a lot of good intelligence to Ukraine. That isn't for nothing. You won't see any of this unless it results in actionable victories. Moskva was probably attacked after Western intelligence told Ukraine where it was and what it was doing, using Western missiles.
Russia is screwed in that they are now a pariah state that even China is wary about interacting with. Even if they win, Russia is going to have to undergo a huge military spending program to recover their forces and Ukraine will have infinite IMF money and a fast-tracked EU membership to rebuild. If they surrender the contested regions, that's the main hindrance to NATO membership gone. I dismiss most of the small stories in this war because they are both meaningless and probably false. The real story is in the strategic picture, and it looks worse every day for Russia
