Point one you can objectively say is just outright incorrect.
You're missing the spirit for the letter. Of course he wasn't meaning that literally not a single person would welcome the invasion. Basically every invasion in history has been able to find collaborators when occupying a land. What he said(MTL'd) was:
A lightweight little one will never be
Let's start with the last. To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means in practice complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses in a neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic towards Moscow is openly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
It seems that the events in the southeast of Ukraine in 2014 did not teach anyone anything. Then, after all, they also hoped that the entire left-bank Ukraine in a single impulse and in a matter of seconds would turn to Novorossia. Already drew maps, estimated the personnel of future administrations of cities and regions, and developed state flags.
But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including cities such as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in its vast majority. The project "Novorossiya" somehow imperceptibly blown away and quietly died.
In a word, the liberation campaign in 2022 according to the model and likeness of 1939 will not work. In this case, the words of the classic of Soviet literature Arkady Gaidar are more true than ever: "It can be seen that we will not have an easy fight now, but a difficult battle.".
So when he says "No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine." he's speaking in the context of responding to people who basically thought that invading the whole of Ukraine would go like invading Crimea in 2014. That there'd be no substantial support of the government, and no resistance to Russia taking over and essentially welcoming the troops in. He's been correct in this. While certainly they've been able to find traitors to help them in places, and gotten some degree of support, by and large the territories they've taken have been unwelcoming. For example, protests in Kherson big and angry enough that they started forcibly dispersing them, and reports that they wanted to set up a Kherson Republic have come to naught. Or in the north of Ukraine, where apparently not a single town, village, or city welcomed them warmly enough that they attempted to hang onto it when they retreated.
Aside from the fact that Ukraine has just been openly intimidating pro-Russian civilians, this assessment is completely ignoring the fact that the DPR and LPR even exist.
Uh. No shit it ignores them. Mikhail Khodarenok is a retired Russian colonel writing as an analyst for
NVO, a Russian newspaper that's "dedicated to military posture,
military science, activity of
secret services, military technology, weapons,
military history of Russia, as well as of other countries.". As far as he - or at least his editor - is concerned, the DPR and LPR aren't part of Ukraine at this point in time, they're independent republics. So of course he's not going to take them into consideration when talking about how an invasion of Ukraine would be welcomed.
I don't think point six is that great of an assessment either. I'm not saying that might not happen later on in the war, but you're just not seeing it happen now. Most of the cities that have fallen under Russian control aren't really seeing any kind of guerilla resistance, or at least not anything like what you saw in Iraq or Afghanistan. Hell Russia has just been parking trucks on the street in Kherson with very little security placed on them.
You likely aren't seeing guerilla resistance as there hasn't been the need for open fighting yet. The war's still on and providing information to Ukraine and attending protests is the safer way to resist occupation. Beyond that it's likely happened on small scale. Hence
reports like these where people killed in Russian occupied territory in northern Ukraine were said to be killed for being suspected of effectively being artillery spotters. You likely had other scattered individuals or small groups try something elsewhere in Russian held territory as well, it'd explain some of the killings that seem to have been paranoia.
Then there's apparently enough reports of partisan fighting in Russian controlled territory that one of the main sources of maps about the war has included that for a few days now:
All in all, people are resisting. Things just haven't progressed to the point yet where there's large scale guerilla warfare. People aren't that desperate yet, and Russia's not being so openly provocative in unfriendly areas that people are going that far.