War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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The problem with a general mobilization is that it would get more soldiers.

It would also hurt the tatters of an economy they have and strain their already strained logistics.
The longer the Russians wait, the strong Ukraine becomes. Plus the main factor stopping Ukraine from getting a lot of EU and US heavy weapons is lack of training. If they have time to train then Russian soldiers would be going up against a modern and entranced force that literally has unlimited funds.
Maybe this might be what's needed to snap younger Russians, who have been found by some surveys to be war sceptical, but passively so, out of it. Bellicose old boomers can support all this, but they don't have to die there. It really isn't clear that Russia has the resources to equip a significantly larger force. The existing forces whether militia or alleged elite forces have shown themselves to be very deficient in basic skills.

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You must come to the military commissariat for clarification of military registration documents. You need to take all documents with you (passport, etc.). Military commissar of the united Golovinsky district of the Northern district of Moscow. Gusev.

another notification

We'll soon discover if Stalingrad 2: Electric Boogaloo is on, or rather if it translates to a bigger Russian ruckus in the Donbass.

Russian offered money and military help to Catalan leaders to help secede from Spain

Catalonian leaders referred to the man who offered them troops and money to secede from Spain as “Putin’s envoy.” Reporters identified him as Nikolai Sadovnikov, a longtime diplomat who reportedly worked as a strategic adviser to the Russian foreign minister.

Key Findings​

  • On a trip to Barcelona in 2017, Nikolai Sadovnikov offered to give the Catalonians $500 billion to aid their attempts to make the region an independent state.
  • In return, he asked them to turn Catalonia into a haven for cryptocurrencies.
  • A Western intelligence agency described him as “an actor of Russian parallel diplomacy” who accompanied Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on trips around the Middle East.
  • After Sadovnikov left Barcelona, text messages show the Catalonians stayed in touch through an intermediary.
  • The intermediary kept promising money, sending the Catalonians photographs of a suitcase full of cash and a certificate of deposit worth $500 billion. But reporters could only confirm he ever sent them a single bitcoin.
  • Sadovnikov held shares in four companies registered in a government-owned building in Red Square.

It sounds outlandish, but Russian propaganda outlets like Sputnik paid special attention to the Catalan secession crisis of a few years back and blasted a good deal of customised 'Black Legend' anti-Spanish propaganda towards that region of Spain.

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Twitter thread covering the meeting between Sadovnikov and Catalan leaders
 
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The problem with a general mobilization is that it would get more soldiers.

It would also hurt the tatters of an economy they have and strain their already strained logistics.
The longer the Russians wait, the strong Ukraine becomes. Plus the main factor stopping Ukraine from getting a lot of EU and US heavy weapons is lack of training. If they have time to train then Russian soldiers would be going up against a modern and entranced force that literally has unlimited funds.
General Mobilization means Kremlin now can enact War Economy, which would be a very short term fix to their economic problems due to sanctions. However, at the same time, it would be a  HUGE political risk, since Putin could be personally held responsible for any death or military fuckup since he would be taking a personal responsibility for this war. Remember, one of the reason the Russian Revolution happened was because the Tsar idiotically took personal command of the military
 
It sounds outlandish, but Russian propaganda outlets like Sputnik paid special attention to the Catalan secession crisis of a few years back and blasted a good deal of customised 'Black Legend' anti-Spanish propaganda towards that region of Spain.

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Twitter thread covering the meeting between Sadovnikov and Catalan leaders
Why would it sound outlandish. It's a rather open secret that Russia's FSB were the ones funding BLM and Antifa during the 2020 "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in the US and Canada.

The biggest problem for Putin with a General Mobilization, is once he hands out the guns he can't exactly guarantee which way they are going to be pointed. Especially since all the people who would be standing between his people and all the new involuntary soldiers are scattered in bits and pieces all over the Ukrainian Landscape.
 
If they have time to train
What do you think has been happening in Ukraine? Step 1 of war is call up reserves. Step 2 is begin training civilian volunteers because wars always take longer to win and with heavier losses than people expect. By month five at the latest we'll start seeing the first waves of civilian recruits hit the front lines in quantity, and they'll probably be equipped with NATO weapons since it makes no sense to train them on Pact weapons that are already on their way out, not when the people at the frontlines are already trained to use those and need everything they can get. Chances are Ukraine's going to build their new NATO-standard army around their civilian recruits from this war, slowly phasing out their Pact-equipped veterans as time goes on.
 
What do you think has been happening in Ukraine? Step 1 of war is call up reserves. Step 2 is begin training civilian volunteers because wars always take longer to win and with heavier losses than people expect. By month five at the latest we'll start seeing the first waves of civilian recruits hit the front lines in quantity, and they'll probably be equipped with NATO weapons since it makes no sense to train them on Pact weapons that are already on their way out, not when the people at the frontlines are already trained to use those and need everything they can get. Chances are Ukraine's going to build their new NATO-standard army around their civilian recruits from this war, slowly phasing out their Pact-equipped veterans as time goes on.
Other than Aircraft, there really isn't that huge of a training hurdle to switch the Veteran's over from Pact to NATO gear. They just need some time and breathing room to do it. They need enough time to be able the Veterans back from the front lines for a few weeks of training. Combat Aircraft will be a much bigger hurdle as Veteran Pilots will have to unlearn a few core elements of instrumentation that have been trained into them to be instinctual. Like a Language.
 
Other than Aircraft, there really isn't that huge of a training hurdle to switch the Veteran's over from Pact to NATO gear. They just need some time and breathing room to do it. They need enough time to be able the Veterans back from the front lines for a few weeks of training. Combat Aircraft will be a much bigger hurdle as Veteran Pilots will have to unlearn a few core elements of instrumentation that have been trained into them to be instinctual. Like a Language.
You literally can't with combat aircraft, actually. Poland has tried, and all their MiG-29 pilots proved incapable of adjusting, especially once the heat of combat starts. They are few things more painful for a pilot than to know you're obsolete and you and your craft will be headed to a museum at best and a boneyard at worst.

As to the rest, it isn't just equipment but training standards and a whole new way of thinking. While Ukraine has reformed their military along Western lines since 2014, its still going to take years of transition time to be fully integrated into NATO and its way of thinking. It isn't just how to handle basic equipment, but things like communication standards and protocols, hardware, maintenance, etc. Something like the M113 APC has nothing in common with a BTR or BMP aside from the most basic of layout. Hell, let's compare the primary light utility vehicle of the Pact to anything from the West:
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That is a Ukrainian UAZ-469 converted to an ambulance. The UAZ-469 has been the primary light utility vehicle of Russia (and Pact nations) since the 1970's. I don't believe there is anything in NATO inventory like that, and probably hasn't been for decades. The Ukrainian military is being forced decades ahead of where it used to be thanks to NATO armaments arriving. A Leopard 2's internals would probably seem like a spaceship compared to what's inside a T-72, even a modernized one.
 
You literally can't with combat aircraft, actually. Poland has tried, and all their MiG-29 pilots proved incapable of adjusting, especially once the heat of combat starts. They are few things more painful for a pilot than to know you're obsolete and you and your craft will be headed to a museum at best and a boneyard at worst.

As to the rest, it isn't just equipment but training standards and a whole new way of thinking. While Ukraine has reformed their military along Western lines since 2014, its still going to take years of transition time to be fully integrated into NATO and its way of thinking. It isn't just how to handle basic equipment, but things like communication standards and protocols, hardware, maintenance, etc. Something like the M113 APC has nothing in common with a BTR or BMP aside from the most basic of layout. Hell, let's compare the primary light utility vehicle of the Pact to anything from the West:
View attachment 3262228
That is a Ukrainian UAZ-469 converted to an ambulance. The UAZ-469 has been the primary light utility vehicle of Russia (and Pact nations) since the 1970's. I don't believe there is anything in NATO inventory like that, and probably hasn't been for decades. The Ukrainian military is being forced decades ahead of where it used to be thanks to NATO armaments arriving. A Leopard 2's internals would probably seem like a spaceship compared to what's inside a T-72, even a modernized one.
I said this aways back, but here's the single biggest problem with the pilots. This is a Western built aircrafts Attitude Indicator Gauge vs a Soviet/Russian one. See if you can spot the subtle difference. Or work out what that means if you are trying to switch between them.
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A PACT trained pilot will glance at a NATO Instrument and think he is banking in the opposite direction from what he actually is. Because he has been trained to scan and interpret the instruments at a glance, and not give any deep thought to them.
 

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A Leopard 2's internals would probably seem like a spaceship compared to what's inside a T-72, even a modernized one.
I recall early on a nickname Ukranian SOF received from Russian soldiers was "space marines" while saying their own equipment and uniforms made them look like beggars. Ideas like NODs, weapon optics, PEQ-15s and plate carriers for every squad member seems alien to the Russians. Seeing a few parallels to the Iraqi military fighting the US in 2003. I can't imagine what kind of nightmare it will be for the Russians if this thing roles into month 5 and we start seeing western trained and equipped tank crews and aircraft pilots hit the frontline.
 
Russia Insider, which might be satirical, could be the place to look, if it isn't satire, but plenty in other threads just repeat the Kremlin line, saving the need to look. I wonder if the new line might be that this 'special operation' makes Putin sad, so let him have his Donbass-Crimea landbridge, that he's super truly defeated the Nazis. I bet he'll announce victory on Victory Day May 9. Maybe.
The guy to look at for the next cope is Robert Barnes, on Twitter. He's one of those supposed "right wingers" who unironically retweets Russian propaganda day in and day out. Just the other day he unironically retweeted someone that said that Russia had a kill/death ration of 3:5:1, not realizing that if it was really that high, Ukraine would be combat ineffective. It seems the new cope coming out Barnes' retweets is that Ukraine has lost 50,000 troops, or roughly half their army, so the Russians will completely destroy their forces, even if they don't win. Can't believe I once followed this dumbass.
 
I said this aways back, but here's the single biggest problem with the pilots. This is a Western built aircrafts Attitude Indicator Gauge vs a Soviet/Russian one. See if you can spot the subtle difference. Or work out what that means if you are trying to switch between them.
View attachment 3262332
A PACT trained pilot will glance at a NATO Instrument and think he is banking in the opposite direction from what he actually is. Because he has been trained to scan and interpret the instruments at a glance, and not give any deep thought to them.
Right, thanks for the reminder it was you who said that. Now extrapolate all of that down the line in terms of thinking. Keep in mind even "small" things like reticle patterns on a rifle's optics will need re-training and re-learning. I'm not sure if Ukraine's AK have rail mounts on top or not, since IIRC that's a Western thing, the Pact using side-mounted brackets for adding attachments.
 
I said this aways back, but here's the single biggest problem with the pilots. This is a Western built aircrafts Attitude Indicator Gauge vs a Soviet/Russian one. See if you can spot the subtle difference. Or work out what that means if you are trying to switch between them.
View attachment 3262332
A PACT trained pilot will glance at a NATO Instrument and think he is banking in the opposite direction from what he actually is. Because he has been trained to scan and interpret the instruments at a glance, and not give any deep thought to them.
What about Ukrainian pilots in the civilian sector? I'd assume there may be some Ukranian nationals who fly Airbuses or Boeing jets that can transition to a NATO style jet perhaps?
 
What about Ukrainian pilots in the civilian sector? I'd assume there may be some Ukranian nationals who fly Airbuses or Boeing jets that can transition to a NATO style jet perhaps?
There might be. But first they have to y'know transition from flying a big slow multi engine airliner to a fighter jet. It's not the sort of thing where you just toss him the keys. Even during WW2 it would take 8-12 months to train up a Pilot.
 
Here is supposed video of Ukrainian attacking a Russian Sub that had been firing off Kalibr missiles. Of course it's one of those annoying robot voice channels of questionable repute. As with everything regarding this war, view it with a grain of salt or two. So many questions regarding this claimed attack.
one of the warning signs is the Thumbnail proclaiming "Russian Nuclear Sub under heavy attack". Which is complete idiocy. If this is real it's a rundown old Diesel that can only fire its missiles near the surface. Actual Nuke subs don't come up in a war zone.
 
>We are now hours away from the cope parade

Okay gentlemen, take your bets; What will the Monkey Tsardom do to escalate the war?

Will it be:

1) Mass conscription of all young men and a transition to a wartime economy. Scary on paper but in practice will probably just consist of sending more poorly trained, demoralized innocent young men into the meat grinder at great cost to Putin politically

2) Declares "victory over Ukrainian Nazis;" Institutes a limited conscription to wipe out "the last pockets of resistance to Russian liberation"

3) Citing bullshit referendums, announces the annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, and "Nova Russia" into the Russian Federation proper. Threatens to retaliate against anyone that encroaches on "Russian territory." The rest of the world laughs it off and another one of his pathetic red lines get crossed

4) Vague nuclear threats toward the west and other "hostile nations" if they continue intervening in Ukraine. Causes a scare in the short term but in the long term just makes everyone hate Russia even more and the west doubles down

5) He literally doesn't mention the conflict at all lmao. He maybe makes a few vague statements on how well the war is going but he doesn't elaborate any further

6) Something completely different and unexpected

Whatever happens it won't save Putin from the weight of his own failures
Praying the Ukies cuck that Crimean bridge tomorrow, too
 
>We are now hours away from the cope parade

Okay gentlemen, take your bets; What will the Monkey Tsardom do to escalate the war?

Will it be:

1) Mass conscription of all young men and a transition to a wartime economy. Scary on paper but in practice will probably just consist of sending more poorly trained, demoralized innocent young men into the meat grinder at great cost to Putin politically

2) Declares "victory over Ukrainian Nazis;" Institutes a limited conscription to wipe out "the last pockets of resistance to Russian liberation"

3) Citing bullshit referendums, announces the annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, and "Nova Russia" into the Russian Federation proper. Threatens to retaliate against anyone that encroaches on "Russian territory." The rest of the world laughs it off and another one of his pathetic red lines get crossed

4) Vague nuclear threats toward the west and other "hostile nations" if they continue intervening in Ukraine. Causes a scare in the short term but in the long term just makes everyone hate Russia even more and the West doubles down

5) He literally doesn't mention the conflict at all lmao. He maybe makes a few vague statements on how well the war is going but he doesn't elaborate any further

6) Something completely different and unexpected

Whatever happens it won't save Putin from the weight of his own failures
Praying the Ukies cuck that Crimean bridge tomorrow, too
7) All of the Above. He will issue contradictory statements concerning 1-5 in a new and unexpected manner, confusing literally everyone with his "brilliance".
 
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Putin does make a show of religious observance, but his Talebs smash a 16th century monastery to pieces with artillery.View attachment 3261718

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The only nuke related thing Putin has done is have his lickspittles make cheap menaces. Perun, an Australian defence analyst, said (in a video I or another posted already), that Russia has done nothing concrete towards using using nukes. on which they expend c. 5 bn a weeks (vs 50bn by the US). A caution he offers that no one can defend against nuclear weapons.





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Is Putin going to go for broke with a full or much fuller moblisation?

Translation of one of the notices:

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Now this might be rumor-mongering / mis-info but it would be a plausible direction, a Putin speech full of sperging about Nazis (not his ones) and an another attempt to zerg rush the Donbass, probably.

A translation by someone in that thread:

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the really big here is that all those come from proper St. Pete's and Moscow, not some bumfuck far east where they eat dogs and shit outside.

people who live there are more vocal and tend to know ways to avoid draft.
 
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