Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%
  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%
  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%
  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%
  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%

  • Total voters
    2,360
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Issue is Rybar is claiming to get his infomation from insiders in the Ukie General Staff:story: so according to Rybar themselves this isn't infomation from Russia, but infomation from their ass from some high ranking Ukie officer.
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It's generally a good idea to not believe anything for which the source is just "some dude said so". I don't even watch POW or refugee interviews, or those intercepted calls Ukrainians publish anymore, it's nothing but noise. If it can be independently verified, then use the verification, if it can't, it's worthless.
Same with all those reports about morale or the supply situation on either side. Who knows. We'll see what we'll see.
 
Ok, here is my theory:

The Ukrainians attack Snake Island by air, as they did before, and destroy various materiel, as they did before, including a helicopter. This is visible on video and we see the wrecking on the next day.
The Russians are embarrassed
Yeah, because they've totally been embarrassed by the other gorillion videos and didn't just ignore them and post their own propaganda.
, because this shows that they are apparently incapable of keeping the Ukrainian air force from striking the island at will.
If they can strike the island at will without losing equipment, why aren't they doing it now when the Russians are back to garrisoning it?

and find some corpses. Maybe it's their own dead from the attack, maybe it's living soldiers posing for the video. I think it's the latter, since none of them have obvious injuries. They film a shitty 10 second black and white video and blur out the faces, so nobody can identify anyone. However, because it's such an improvised rushed job, they accidently have one of the "corpses" wear a belt that is only sold in Russia and features a symbol the Ukrainian military doesn't use. So they delete the first release and re-release it with the entire bodies being blurred out.
Jesus. What happened to Occam's razor?
They dig up the name of an Ukrainian officer who died around that time and claim actually he was killed in an attack on the island.
The man died in a fucking anti-submarine helicopter. There's no reason for him to be in a Mi-14 unless he's attacking something near the sea. In fact, there's no reason for him to be out and about for any reason other than "something needs to be coordinated and coordinated well". The man's the deputy commander for Navy aviation, not some random pilot, he's not going to be flying bombing missions in the Donbas using an anti-submarine helicopter.
There, it fits all the evidence
It doesn't fit the death of Igor Bedzai at all, even assuming everything else was correct.
, it fits how both sides behave (Russians have been caught staging shit and lying about events many times during this conflict)
Everyone lies. It's a war. The Ukrainian MoD has posted video game footage three times. The Russians still claim Bucha is a western gayop. But when bodies show up on the island and one of the best and most senior pilots Ukraine has dies right on the day of a claimed attack, there's no other way about it.
, it requires no secret battles that nobody noticed and that left no traces. It requires no bizarre motivations on the Ukraine side (a suicide attack that can't possibly succeed or accomplish anything an air strike can't accomplish just as well)
This is like if I tried claiming the crossing at Bilohorivka is fake and gay because trying to cross a pontoon bridge with 70 vehicles, possibly more than once, is fucking retarded. Yes, it is. Mistakes get made in war. The entire point of this supposed attack would be to deny the Russians additional SAM coverage over the Black Sea which would be quite useful for the Ukrainians, as well as lower Russian morale just in time for May 9. Do I think it's retarded? Yes. Is there some logic to it, even if stupid? Also yes.
, or on the Russian side (letting the Ukrainian air force bomb a strategically located outpost to rubble and destroy your equipment there just to bait in some ground troops, even though you were actually capable of destroying the Ukrainian air assets used in the operation at basically any point).
The buildings aren't exactly irreplaceable. No buildings? Too bad, tents exist for a reason. Lose an Osa? Oh no. Russia only has 400 we know of. Totally not worth the 4 jets, dozen helicopters, attack craft and special forces (claimed).
So if the Russians are pushed back 20 miles, that means the artillery can move up 20 miles without increasing the danger. Likewise Ukrainian targets move out of range of some Russian weapons and make attacks more risky.
No, the Russians still hold firm on the other side of the Seversky Donets and around Lyptsy and Kozacha Lopan. Any Ukrainian battery there right now is also in range of those two, and moving up 20km wouldn't exactly put them out of it.
I don't know what their exact goals are or what the exact situation on the ground is, but I don't think it's as harmless as you make it out to be. If the region was truly useless, the Russians could have just left it, as they did in the north
They'd rather not leave, but they'd also rather not lose their limited amount men in retarded defenses that are never going to work. They can come back later and retake those villages after Donbas if it goes well, but if they try to spread themselves thin and fail at taking the Donbas, the war's over. Kharkiv likely isn't even in the top 10 priorities for the Russian forces right now.
. I think there are things in Belgorod Oblast and Izyum they would rather keep the Ukrainian army away from, but they lack the ability to put up more of a fight than they currently do.
Obviously, but it's not because of losses, it's because almost everyone else in the Russian forces is busy with more important shit. Again, the Ukrainians have to cross a river or attack far more well-defended areas if they want to seriously bother the Russian positions in and near Izyum, and river crossings suck ass. Both sides have failed hard at these constantly in this war. Not to mention that in and near Izyum, the Ukrainians likely lose some of their SAM capabilities and are more exposed to Russian aviation.

PS: Navy Aviation Vasily Ilchuk was also confirmed dead in May 10 by his hometown news agency during ops in Snake Island. 10th Naval Aviation Brigade.

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It's sold in a Russian store, is called "Patriot Belt (Navy)" and features what looks like the emblem of the Russian Marines.

https://www.knife-vorsma.ru/remen-poyasnoy-patriot-vmf/ [Archive]

It's not 100% proof it's staged, but it's weird for a Ukrainian soldier to wear the emblem of the Russian Marines, and it's weird that the Russians edited the video after people started to wonder about it.

Huh, interesting. I'll agree that it's odd, but given that it's something purchased personally, rather than issued by a military, I don't know that it's something I'd hinge a doubt of the video's authenticity on.
 
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Were you arty?
The video seemed like they were shootin' 'n scootin' which will probably mitigate the issue of return fire but at the cost of really doing much. It's 1 gun. I don't know anything about arty tactics it just seems ineffective. As far as I know, and maybe this only applies to the sandbox, but US troops set up shop and can fuck shit up for miles away and have no reason to move because well... there's miles of impact zone to navigate to get to them and you're not sneaking up on them.
Was attached to 1st Armored DIVARTY for 2 years. Fun time. Artillerymen are great guys.

As for the M777, the fuckers are accurate as all hell. If the GRAD is the shotgun of Artillery, the M777 is the sniper rifle. A skilled crew can land high explosive with a few meters deviation using pen and paper. If they know what they are doing they don't NEED to shoot more then twice. If the first shot misses, they just recalibrate and the second shot lands dead on target.

After that, fire for effect. Shoot 3 more rounds to make sure the target is good and dead and then it's time to scoot.

It's warming my heart to see Artillery is still the king of Battle. The airforce has to be seething about this.
 
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@Givi For some reason I can't reply to or quote your post.

> Jesus. What happened to Occam's razor?

Let's leave aside whether it would make sense to invade, or whether it would make sense for the Russians to permit the Ukrainians to destroy a helicopter full of troops and the air defense system on the island, among other things, or why they chose to lie about this thing in particular. As you said, strange decisions are made, we can't read their mind and it ultimately doesn't really matter.
Let's leave aside that the Russian claims for Ukrainian losses are absurd, we both believe they are liars after all.

We do not know whose bodies that are in the Russian video. I gave you my theory: That they are props.
That's it, every other thing I say is supported by videos and pictures.

Your theory requires that a major air sea battle was fought in the vicinity of the island, without leaving any traces, without anyone noticing it while it happened, without the Russians having any evidence that it took place. You claim that a land battle was fought on the island, again, without any evidence beyond a hand full of apparently uninjured faceless bodies and single weapon the Russians captured loads of, filmed without any context or explanation, released long after the fact. That is, a video that shows nothing and proves nothing.

That leaves as support of the otherwise baseless claims of proven liars, that a Ukrainian officer died that day, which the Russians already knew from Ukrainian sources.
We have no substantial information on where he died. We have Russian statements that have zero evidence.
He could have died in the Ukrainian attack, but that includes the air raid alone, as he was involved with the Ukrainian Navy air forces. Or he could have died elsewhere for other reasons. But the naked fact that he died is now a determining piece of evidence for a very specific form of attack taking place at all. That's absurd. A Ukrainian officer died, therefore the Ukrainians tried to invade Snake Island, were repelled under heavy losses, and later claimed the videos showing their successful air strike on the island were the entire attack, and they pulled this off without leaving any traces of their failure. That's how you use Occam's Razor? What about everything happened the way it appears to have happened? And we assume that what we don't have evidence for didn't happen? Why is that a wrong approach?

> If they can strike the island at will without losing equipment, why aren't they doing it now when the Russians are back to garrisoning it?
I don't understand, do you imply the Ukrainian air strikes only took place because the Russians permitted it? Even the ones that happened during the week leading up to the big attack?

You seem so incredibly certain but I don't see what that certainty is based on.
 
Huh, interesting. I'll agree that it's odd, but given that it's something purchased personally, rather than issued by a military, I don't know that it's something I'd hinge a doubt of the video's authenticity on.
Yeah, it's just one more thing that reeks about the Russian version. They censor faces, they show no injuries, they show no evidence of combat at all actually, and one of the bodies they show have a suspicious belt that they then clumsily memory hole. Why is the video black and white again? It takes additional effort to not film in colour nowadays.

It's just so fucking weird.
 
Your theory requires that a major air sea battle was fought in the vicinity of the island, without leaving any traces, without anyone noticing it while it happened,
The nearest village is 50 kilometers away. The thing itself is only 600m in area, 17 ha. A jet or helicopter getting shot down and enough of landing in it to be recognizable instead of the entire sea surrounding it would be incredibly lucky, to say the least. It is entirely possible that simply nothing fell inside it.
You claim that a land battle was fought on the island, again, without any evidence
Other than the fact that there's obviously dead people on the island. And no, you don't have any proof of them being props, and there's no reason to assume they are.
single weapon the Russians captured loads of
They captured loads of them in active warzones and immediately began using them, they didn't ship them to the Russian Navy so they could do epic gayops with them.
That leaves as support of the otherwise baseless claims of proven liars, that a Ukrainian officer died that day,
Deputy Commander of the Navy Aviation . Not just an officer. He wasn't some schmuck pilot, he was one of Ukraine's best pilots and one of the few who were in Crimea and didn't surrender or immediately run. You don't send your deputy commander to do bombing runs in the Donbas. He was likely there to coordinate the attack.

And don't forget Vasily Ilchuk.

We have no substantial information on where he died. He could have died in the Ukrainian attack, but that includes the air raid alone, as he was involved with the Ukrainian Navy air forces Or he could have died elsewhere for other reasons But the naked fact that he died is now a determining piece of evidence for a very specific form of attack taking place at all. That's absurd... . That's how you use Occam's Razor?
The Russians didn't claim to shoot down any helicopters on May 7-10 anywhere other than Snake Island. What part of Mi-14 anti submarine helicopter do you not understand? You don't use a helicopter with torpedos to attack ground targets for fuck's sake. He was somewhere near the sea. The only attack we heard of near the sea was in Snake Island. He died before May 8. Snake Island attack began in May 7 and ended in May 8.

It can very easily be inferred that he died attacking Snake Island when his death was announced one day after the first failed attack, when Ukrainian sources reported he was in a Mi-14 anti-submarine helicopter and when no helicopters were reported shot down by the Russians anywhere else in that timeframe. Both sources claim his helicopter was destroyed by a fighter jet.

What about everything happened the way it appears to have happened? And we assume that what we don't have evidence for didn't happen? Why is that a wrong approach?
Everything did happen the way it seems it did. You just have to actually think about what happened beyond the surface level of "Snake Island got bombed".

You seem incredibly certain this didn't happen, but have no way of explaining why Navy Aviation pilots suddenly dropped like flies May 7- May 8, and we even got Ukrainian confirmation that one died in an operation near Snake Island.
> If they can strike the island at will without losing equipment, why aren't they doing it now when the Russians are back to garrisoning it?
I don't understand, do you imply the Ukrainian air strikes only took place because the Russians permitted it? Even the ones that happened during the week leading up to the big attack?
The Russian claim was that they intentionally left it lightly garrisoned as bait and after the Ukrainian landing happened, all their helicopters and landing boats were sunk. Is this true? What do I know? But the truth is that they're currently in control of it, and they managed to beat back a Ukrainian counteroffensive, so the island was certainly not left completely defenseless.
 
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Does it even matter? I have served on a ship. I thought I was talking to people that understood that there was a war in the Ukraine and there was a localized number of ships, ergo a flagship. Not exactly secret news, is it? Given that there are more memes of the ship sinking than there are chins in chinatown.

I'm pretty sure they would not have confused the comment with their other fleets. And I'm pretty sure that if some dickhead on here is so uninformed that he would mistake the FLAGSHIP that was sunk as being the most important ship in the Russian arsenal, and was relying on KF for this OLD NEWS then I'm glad I could actually make some retard think Russia lost it's most important ship.

Somehow, despite my entirely ambitious comment, lacking the nomenclature you desire you managed to figure out what I was talking about.

Remarkable. You must be a genius.
Being a sailor's fuckboy doesn't count as service.

Unless its Canada, which in your case explains everything.
 
The Russians didn't claim to shoot down any helicopters on May 7-10 anywhere other than Snake Island. What part of Mi-14 anti submarine helicopter do you not understand? You don't use a helicopter with torpedos to attack ground targets for fuck's sake. He was somewhere near the sea. The only attack we heard of near the sea was in Snake Island. He died before May 8. Snake Island attack began in May 7 and ended in May 8.

It can very easily be inferred that he died attacking Snake Island when his death was announced one day after the first failed attack, when Ukrainian sources reported he was in a Mi-14 anti-submarine helicopter and when no helicopters were reported shot down by the Russians anywhere else in that timeframe.
The Russians don't report every single helicopter shot down, do they? Or is there some kind of list of claimed targets by date? If not, what's the point of claiming no other was shot down?

Navy Aviation pilots suddenly dropped like flies
One pilot, one commanding officer, by your count.
It's interesting that Ilchuk reportedly died near Snake Island. I don't know whether his death was connected to Bedzai, but it could be. We'd need to know how often such losses occur to make guesses. Russia claims hundreds of Ukrainian helicopters destroyed, but we know nothing about virtually any of them. The same goes for Ukrainian claims of Russian air losses. It's likely that Bedzai wasn't alone in his helicopter though, so several dead from the same incident is expected.

there's no reason to assume they are


You know, I watched it again, and I noticed that there's only three corpses there, but they're filmed from several angles. That gave me a thought: What if those ARE the Russian soldiers we know for a fact died that day (the splatted helicopter)? What if this was a video filmed by the Russian soldiers there to film the aftermath of the attack for their superiors? The video we got is cut to shit, it's plausible that they cut out things they couldn't use for their propaganda repurposing, and the different angles of the same person is just the Russians filming while they walk around the place. You said they reuse the captured weapons, so that may have just been equipment they were given. The video could be black and white because the arm bands they wear in the video would show a Russian color.

You don't use a helicopter with torpedos to attack ground targets for fuck's sake. He was somewhere near the sea.
So why was it involved in an air raid and follow up invasion then?

Why would the Deputy Commander of the Navy Aviation participate in it so closely he dies in combat? If he was just on the radio, would he have to be close enough to be caught in this?

What did that attack even look like if the Russians found no vehicles near the island, so there's no debris visible on the shores on the aerial images we have, but the Ukrainians landed troops there anyway? But only three guys? Where are the armored assault craft? Were they sunk en route? Because they would be visible if they had landed. We still see the Russian ship that was sunk there.

It just doesn't make sense.

I accept that we have tentative evidence that one Ukrainian helicopter was shot down, but I'm not a military person, so I don't know why it would be there in either scenario.
 
The Russians don't report every single helicopter shot down, do they? Or is there some kind of list of claimed targets by date? If not, what's the point of claiming no other was shot down?
The Russian MoD gives out two briefings every day detailing what they shot down (or at least what they think they did or want to claim they did).
One pilot, one commanding officer, by your count.
Getting confirmation of a dead pilot is rare enough, two on the same day or two days means something went very, very wrong.
It's interesting that Ilchuk reportedly died near Snake Island. I don't know whether his death was connected to Bedzai, but it could be. We'd need to know how often such losses occur to make guesses
Ukraine doesn't run many helicopter sorties. They don't run many jet sorties either, but much less helicopter ones.
. Russia claims hundreds of Ukrainian helicopters destroyed, but we know nothing about virtually any of them. The same goes for Ukrainian claims of Russian air losses. It's likely that Bedzai wasn't alone in his helicopter though, so several dead from the same incident is expected.
Ilchuk was a pilot, helicopter one since the 10th Naval Aviation doesn't have any jets.

You said they reuse the captured weapons, so that may have just been equipment they were given
The captured weapons immediately get re-used, they don't get sent back to units that are unlikely to ever see combat that necessitates use of a Javelin, likely Navy Special Forces is what I assume the Russians were using during the fighting in Snake Island, since Fedorov Alexey Nikolaevich was a frogman and is confirmed KIA two days after he was injured due to a Bayraktar strike on his Raptor.
So why was it involved in an air raid and follow up invasion then?
It wasn't involved in an air raid. The bombing run videos were the work of jets. The Mi-14 is for sea operations. It's equipped with torpedos and depth charges.
Why would the Deputy Commander of the Navy Aviation participate in it so closely he dies in combat? If he was just on the radio, would he have to be close enough to be caught in this?
Who knows? But he was there, and he died. My personal theory is that the Ukrainians actually fell for the bait and thought the Russians were so out of SAM capabilities in the Black Sea that attempting the attack wasn't retarded, and the island was mostly safe. But no one can be sure.

What did that attack even look like if the Russians found no vehicles near the island, so there's no debris visible on the shores on the aerial images we have, but the Ukrainians landed troops there anyway?
Why would they? They don't have any armor airdrop capabilities and again, it's a tiny island. It would be incredibly lucky if any of the jets, helicopters or UAVs landed anywhere near the island, let alone on it.

But only three guys?
Only three guys were recorded, we can't expect every single casualty to get recorded in a war.
Where are the armored assault craft? Because they would be visible if they had landed. We still see the Russian ship that was sunk there.
Some were reportedly sunk, some ran away after the Russians started attacking. The Ukrainians weren't using any large landing barges, they were using Centaur class fast assault craft, the thing is probably invisible because it sunk deeper than the presumably moored Russian boat did. We aren't seeing the 3 or so Russian craft that we have visual confirmation got destroyed either, for example.
 
As the world moves on without America, it will wave it's nukes and army around in an impotent vague threat.
People have been saying that for 100 years. People also forget the US is the only nation on earth to actually pull the trigger on nuking an enemy.

Also, people seriously underestimate how insanely violent Americans are. We might have the most sadistic prison system on earth. Look at how the "peaceful, tolerant, soy left" chimps out and riots and murders. Look at Chicago's weekly shootings, it doesn't even make national news. How many of the last 100 years has the US not been at war? How long does that peace last?

Those assets are soldiers, sailors and airmen. That nuclear sub don't run itself, Skippy.

Also all you mentioned meant jack shit in Afghanistan. A bunch of goatfuckers in mandresses, sandals and outdated Soviet weaponry sent us packing, and they kept out shiny toys too.
This is in inaccurate depiction of what happened. We killed afghanis for two decades until the taliban was hiding in pakistan and we killed the fucker thst started this mess. After that, we got tired of killing them and left. We lost less than 2500 soldiers in those two decades. (The ending withdrawal was unacceptable though, and pure stupidity.)

The US fundamentally fails to understand the unwillingness of some people to fight. We wasted a lot of money and didn't change anything politically in Afghanistan, but it's hard to say we lost that war militarily.
 
I still find it amusing that Russia lost her Flagship...in a land war.
Russias Flagship has always been the Admiral Kuznetsov, the Moskva was the lead ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, old AF and designated to be scrapped in the 90s but reinstated and kept for sentimental value.

They already do have israelis fighting for them



Some Indians came out to show support for Russia




Bonus scene of a WW2 show i rewatched recently with a surprise cameo of Ukes in Russia

 
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