@Givi For some reason I can't reply to or quote your post.
> Jesus. What happened to Occam's razor?
Let's leave aside whether it would make sense to invade, or whether it would make sense for the Russians to permit the Ukrainians to destroy a helicopter full of troops and the air defense system on the island, among other things, or why they chose to lie about this thing in particular. As you said, strange decisions are made, we can't read their mind and it ultimately doesn't really matter.
Let's leave aside that the Russian claims for Ukrainian losses are absurd, we both believe they are liars after all.
We do not know whose bodies that are in the Russian video. I gave you my theory: That they are props.
That's it, every other thing I say is supported by videos and pictures.
Your theory requires that a major air sea battle was fought in the vicinity of the island, without leaving any traces, without anyone noticing it while it happened, without the Russians having any evidence that it took place. You claim that a land battle was fought on the island, again, without any evidence beyond a hand full of apparently uninjured faceless bodies and single weapon the Russians captured loads of, filmed without any context or explanation, released long after the fact. That is, a video that shows nothing and proves nothing.
That leaves as support of the otherwise baseless claims of proven liars, that a Ukrainian officer died that day, which the Russians already knew from Ukrainian sources.
We have no substantial information on where he died. We have Russian statements that have zero evidence.
He could have died in the Ukrainian attack, but that includes the air raid alone, as he was involved with the Ukrainian Navy air forces. Or he could have died elsewhere for other reasons. But the naked fact that he died is now a determining piece of evidence for a very specific form of attack taking place at all. That's absurd. A Ukrainian officer died, therefore the Ukrainians tried to invade Snake Island, were repelled under heavy losses, and later claimed the videos showing their successful air strike on the island were the entire attack, and they pulled this off without leaving any traces of their failure. That's how you use Occam's Razor? What about everything happened the way it appears to have happened? And we assume that what we don't have evidence for didn't happen? Why is that a wrong approach?
> If they can strike the island at will without losing equipment, why aren't they doing it now when the Russians are back to garrisoning it?
I don't understand, do you imply the Ukrainian air strikes only took place because the Russians permitted it? Even the ones that happened during the week leading up to the big attack?
You seem so incredibly certain but I don't see what that certainty is based on.