I don't know how anyone can say Russia is winning right now. There have been no notable changes on the map for over a month. It looks like a stalemate. Coach putin pill says that it's because the Russians are destroying the Ukrainian army. Thing is, you don't launch offensives when you're bleeding troops like no tomorrow. If they had enough men to fight back at Kharkov, why didn't they send them where CRP would have you believe they were needed, in Donbas? I don't believe Russia is achieving their goal of "demilitarization." The lesson learned from the Vietnam war is that you can't destroy an army with air power. Even in the great war, the lesson was that artillery couldn't destroy enemy positions, it could only neutralize them.
It's either that Russia can win but they don't want to or that Russia can't win.
Idk, I told the Russians it was a dumb idea to invade, but they didn't listen to my thinkpieces on Kiwi Farms.
Since they screwed the optics and went in anyway, they can't afford to "lose" this war. The West has upped the stakes to make it an existential fight for the Russian government, and maybe the territorial integrity of the country itself. At a minimum, Putin will be Putout if he can't come up with a convincing "victory".
Yet Russia seems to be content with what they've been doing so far. They haven't done a general mobilization, they don't appear to have substantially increased their troop numbers, they haven't pulled Belarus into the fighting, they haven't obliterated Kiev. They could do any or all these things, but they've chosen not to.
Logically, therefore, the Russian Ministry of Defense must think it's achieving its aims, whatever they really are. Otoh the US demanded an immediate ceasefire recently, which doesn't sound like the kind of thing you do when you're about to crush your enemy, and Ukraine + Western sponsors have been furiously trying to spin the surrender of Astoval as another glorious victory for Hoholdom.
The map is not the territory. WW1 had pretty static lines, but that doesn't mean there weren't clear winners and losers by the end, tho idk why anybody would want to refight WW1. From the start everything Russia did was "wrong" from the POV of Western military doctrine, but they persist in doing those things, so it's possible Russia was telling the truth that they see this as a "special military operation", and it's possible they're not lying when they claim that - from their perspective - they feel like they're achieving their objectives.