Let's say Russia wins. Then what?
Everyone in this thread is so optimistic about the future, I am wondering if they have been following domestic politics of all. This belief that Russia will suffer and the West & Ukraine will, in the long-term, be the ultimate victors seems so optimistic that they may as well claim the Ukrainians will annex all of Russia HOI4 style in just a couple years.
Russia will win the war in Ukraine by summer's end or early fall, annexing territory and granting autonomy to a Donetsk and Luhansk who may join Russia anyway. Ukrainians may resist in some of these territories, but Russia will placate them or offer them a chance to move into West Ukraine, causing a crisis there. They will probably colonize Ukraine if the population in those areas are too low.
Next Russia will seek a greater alignment with China, who is watching with great amusement as the West throws military hardware into the meatgrinder while in the midst of an economic recession turning into a depression. This will save Russia economically in the short term until new opportunities arise.
The West will cope seethe and dilate until the Winter of 2022 begins. Europe will suffer from the irresponsible policies of its leaders as energy demands and food prices escalate, people will die. North America will be no stranger to the economic downturn as people can barely afford anything and politicians have wasted billions of dollars in cash and billions more in military equipment into Ukraine. Politicians will demand spending more money, as people suffer. Europe will feel it worse than any, as Germany has bought many "responsible" energy supplies from the world market, leaving their EU pals without proper support.
On top of all these we see a year of bad luck. Food production hasn't been as fruitful as it has in the past, and fertilizer that typically comes from Russia is now blockaded. European governments may end up taking a more neutral or positive view of Russia simply to prevent riots or take care of their population. This will alienate allies like Germany or the U.S., causing as further divide. In America, the Republicans look poised to win the Mid-Term elections under the faltering Biden administration, and this could cause further tensions between the Right-Left as well as within the Democrat party.
This is just how things could be lined up geopolitically towards the end of the year, and things look very bad for the West, and perhaps neutral to the Russians. I think one of the things I hate about the English language culture is that most English speaking countries have this attitude of "Everything will work out fine" due to the success of the UK and the U.S. over the last couple hundred years. People think that once "The West gets out of this slump" it's all Aces for another hundred years. There's no reason another Great Depression isn't going to happen, and once it does happen, there's going to be radical change.
When Gas is 10 dollars a gallon, and McDoubles 6.50, even Joe-beerkeg might yell enough is enough.
