Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

the reactors at zaporizhia aren't rbmk reactors like the ones in chernobyl, they are more modern and safer designs.
if they suffer a loss of coolant situation, you can expect a core meltdown like what happened in america at three mile island, not a complete catastrophe like what happened at chernobyl.

At TMI, they scrambled to problem solve it and managed to turn the cooling back on before the reactor vessel itself melted. Same thing with Fukushima, more or less.

Had it melted, all bets are off, the TMI style containment building is tough but it cannot withstand a huge steam overpressure, nor will it withstand “core on the floor” forever. The Russian designs have never had such good containment.

If experts cannot reach the scene because of bombardment, or the control building is destroyed, or there is simply no power or no water to be had, then you are fucked, it doesn’t matter how advanced the design is, any NPP is a terrifying liability in a warzone.
 
the reactors at zaporizhia aren't rbmk reactors like the ones in chernobyl, they are more modern and safer designs.
if they suffer a loss of coolant situation, you can expect a core meltdown like what happened in america at three mile island, not a complete catastrophe like what happened at chernobyl.
I hope you're right but a nuclear reactor potentially losing it's coolant supply is a reasonable thing to have worst case scenario fears over.
 
New video out that allegedly shows a mine exploding after being washed downstream by the already-ruptured dam.


View attachment 5152364

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1666131351790137344
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/W2EJO

Also waiting on the US glowdepartment to release what they say is evidence that Russia is 'likely' behind the destruction of the dam, per NBC news.
Man, floating mines blowing up dams on their way downstream? Jesus, that's a thing that could happen?

If it's a deliberate sabotage by Ruzzia (the only side to benefit from it), it might help them push for ceasefire (which they'll never get) in the face of humanitarian disaster and perilous position of the nuclear power station, or at the very least point fingers at Kiev and accuse them of disregard for civilians because they still choose to proceed with the offensive action instead of helping people affected by the flooding and related issues.

For it to be an accident, timing is really sus. But the fact that official Ruzzian sources didn't outright jump to blame Ukraine might indicate it was indeed an accident (largely thanks to their involvement), there's no benefit in it for Ukraine, even if we assume they're capable of doing something like this.

It's a fucked up situation, these people can't catch a break.
 
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Man, floating mines blowing up dams on their way downstream? Jesus, that's a thing that could happen?
Assuming you're serious, probably not with ones of the size they have in the river. Those seem to be pretty small and meant to take out little boats and the like. But I suppose it's possible that if the dam was already under a lot of stress, a mine explosion could seriously weaken the dam at one point and then the failure could cascade until the entire dam fails.

I'm leaning more towards the idea that Russia blew it up as the day goes on, but it's still possible it was unintentional/negligent.

I would add that if it were intentional I would expect very, very few people would be in the know about it and so even propagandists would be surprised. The destruction this has caused and will cause is on a tier of using nuclear weapons. Russia would be in deep shit if unambiguous evidence came to light that they did this.
 
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Does anyone here know why the WaPo has a hard on against Ukraine and published that hit piece filled with lies recently? Archive

Some choice parts:
The Washington Post obtained a copy from one of Teixeira’s online friends.
This is the only source and they do not share the document. "Trust me bro" for such a big story. Nothing but anonymous sources, most of them quoted out of context and very misleadingly.
They trot out the old "German boat" theory that has been shown to be technically impossible to pull off and makes no sense, but they present it as a reasonable and well established view of the events. Most of the article is about this discredited theory and how it's similar to the supposed Ukrainian plan that had nothing in common with the German boat theory, but whatever, you can just write what you want in media nowadays.
They lie "Biden administration officials now privately concede there is no evidence that conclusively points to Moscow’s involvement.", linking to an article from December. It is now December 2022? Now that is investigative journalism. In the entire article they do not mention once this revelation from April:
The Russian special vessel SS-750 was near the Nord Stream pipes four days before the pipes were blown up on September 26 last year. The special vessel is designed for underwater operations and carries an AS-26 Priz mini-submarine on board.
In a response to a request for access to documents, the Defense Command confirms that 26 images of the Russian vessel were taken from a Danish patrol boat that was in the area east of Bornholm on September 22, 2022.
"This is incredibly interesting. The SS-750 is a special vessel designed precisely for underwater operations," says Swedish researcher, Russian expert and intelligence expert Joakim von Braun.
Jacob Kaarsbo, who is a senior analyst at Think Tank Europe and has previously worked 15 years in the Danish Defense Intelligence Service, believes the information "sheds light on what was going on in the area in the days before".
"The SS-750 is the most interesting vessel to confirm, because we know that it has the capacity to carry out such an operation," says Jacob Kaarsbo.
source
The article also never mentions the interest Russia had in destroying the pipeline: They never mention the conflict between Russia and Germany about opening the new pipeline (only the old one was destroyed, half of the new one that was subject to political conflict remained intact, curious coincidence), they never mention that Russia was legally required to deliver gas and that destroying the pipeline would avoid them being in breach of contract, they never mention that Russia had been lying about reasons why it couldn't deliver gas and was running out of excuses to not restart deliveries, nothing. The entire article could have been written by the likes of Scott Ritter or Gonzalo Lira, it is that deceptive and lies about key facts while omitting anything that would contradict its misinformation.

I'm used to "Russia said this" kind of news still being a thing after it having been proven that these news are blatant lies hundreds of times in the last year, but this is a specifically crafted attack on Ukraine by the WaPo, not just lazy copy paste "journalism".
 
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They lie "Biden administration officials now privately concede there is no evidence that conclusively points to Moscow’s involvement.", linking to an article from December. It is now December 2022? Now that is investigative journalism. In the entire article they do not mention once this revelation from April:
source
Like most faggot journos they make their money with vague, unfalsifiable statements, innuendo, and technicalities. They count on the short attention span of their retarded readership to help them escape scrutiny.

I would not be at all surprised if this article is the result of some political pressure or pandering to their historically "economically conservative" audience.

Biden administration officials now privately concede no evidence that conclusively points to Moscow’s involvement
This isn't the slam-dunk they're trying to turn it into. It's called being responsible with the evidence available.

When someone counters with "Actually, here's the evidence, there was a Russian special operations ship..." they just have to do their faggot move of "WELL, IT WASN'T CONCLUSIVELY POINTING TO RUSSIA!"

But they're obviously trying to spin this as there's some suspicion that Ukraine actually pulled off this incredibly complex operation when that's really not the case.
 
0D66000D-DC4F-4379-80DC-3459AB8A8460.jpeg

Good. I could well imagine the glowies having spy sats permanently focussed on key infrastructure like this.
 
Holy shit its happening. Blowing that dam is a declaration of total war. Ukraine now has less then a few weeks to secure the Zaporizhia station, and run pump lines to the reactors before a melt down.
The IAEA says the large pond next to the plant has months of essential cooling water, but if that gets attacked things might actually get dire very quickly.


Anyway, I think it's absurd how people can claim this wasn't caused by the Russians. Ukrainians damaged it 9 months ago and after that Russians fucked with it on their retreat. Whether they used explosives or some other means, they deliberately damaged the dam, you can see a part of a causeway fall away last week, and they overfilled it to the point people said water was overflowing it at some points. They allegedly filled the water depot in Crimea before they did this, but that's half (if not completely) propaganda because the aquifers won't be re-filled after just a year of water inflow.
Wanna know what also happened last week? A new law passed that states that regulations regarding maintenance and safety certifications of hydro power plants no longer apply after June 1 2023 in the Russian occupied regions of Ukraine. They give a time limit until 2026 to recertify, but in any case, until 2028 no investigations of accidents in hazardous industrial or hydraulic facilities needs to be carried out. Interesting timing.

Anyway, I wonder what the military situation was in the affected region. Let's take rybar, who is a pro-Russian propagandist with a personal passion for OSINT:
Against the background of intensified activity by the Ukrainian armed forces in several areas of the front, events in the Kherson direction are not covered. Over the past few days there have been active battles (https://t.me/osvedomitell_alex/9107) in the Dacha area and near the islands near Kherson - Ukrainian formations have occupied several houses and positions along the coastline there.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are firing indiscriminately at the positions of the Russian Armed Forces with large-caliber mortars and artillery. Targeting is provided by copters and Bayraktar drones from Dolgintsevo and Voznesensk airfields.

In the Dnieper basin the number of speedboats increased. Only yesterday two landing boats were destroyed (https://t.me/rusich_army/9164) near the island of Kruglik, which tried to swoop ashore.

In addition, the other day two small boats Metal Shark and Galaxy were delivered to Kherson along with two groups of SO SO SO South, which may indicate preparation for more active operations near Kherson.

Also, detachments of Georgian mercenaries were moved to the Shirokaya Balka-Kizomys line. And at the Ternovsky and Shirokiy Lan firing ranges, the 21st and 22nd brigades, as well as the 38th brigade are still there. The 37th Brigade is already engaged in combat in the Vremya sector.

❗️ The diversion and stretching of Russian troops along the front is the main task of the AFU at this stage of the ongoing offensive. And local attempts to force the Dnieper River fit into this plan.
hmmmm.jpg

It's also worth pointing out that the Russians have been evacuating loyalists from the region for months and both sides of the river are now filled with Ukrainian towns and Ukrainian citizens. I say that because I've seen people talk about how "this affects the Russian side worse". There is no part of Kherson that is ethnically or politically Russian. Not that the Kremlin has ever in its history cared the slightest bit about the well-being of ethnic Russians.
This also comes right after their constant bitching and lying about having driven the Free Russians out of Belgorod (this time for sure!) and defeated the Ukrainian offensive (conducted with combine harvesters, western AFV were sold on the black market I assume).


On a personal note: Ziggers are utterly pathetic. You have to have a room temperature IQ to believe Russian statements after being lied to with the same old metodichka for 14 months straight now. How many dozens of times do you have to get humiliated before you start to think "Maybe I should not blindly believe and repeat what these people say"? Then again these subhumans cheer on attacks on civilians and hospitals, so you can only expect so much.
 
As the other thread's zigglers are both simultaneously blaming the Ukrainians for the dam and being gleeful at "drowning hohols" (they really enjoy the suffering of a white Christian nation, REALLY makes one think whether or not these individuals originate from such nations themselves), an Ukrainian officer told CNN that Russian soldiers have been the ones drowning:
1686090399950.png
Anyway, I think it's absurd how people can claim this wasn't caused by the Russians. Ukrainians damaged it 9 months ago and after that Russians fucked with it on their retreat. Whether they used explosives or some other means, they deliberately damaged the dam, you can see a part of a causeway fall away last week, and they overfilled it to the point people said water was overflowing it at some points. They allegedly filled the water depot in Crimea before they did this, but that's half (if not completely) propaganda because the aquifers won't be re-filled after just a year of water inflow.
Wanna know what also happened last week? A new law passed that states that regulations regarding maintenance and safety certifications of hydro power plants no longer apply after June 1 2023 in the Russian occupied regions of Ukraine. They give a time limit until 2026 to recertify, but in any case, until 2028 no investigations of accidents in hazardous industrial or hydraulic facilities needs to be carried out. Interesting timing.
This Twitter post gives a good timetable of the developments among the Ziggler information space, where they started off believing that they neatly blew up a small part of the dam to flood the Ukrainian army at the Dnieper islands:
1686090859542.png
to panicking when they realize what a complete fuck up the whole plan was and instead they blame the Ukrainians for "shelling" the dam:
1686090917360.png

" Model of a 200 - 1800 m dam break at the Nova Kakhovka dam"
Modeled by Dämmningsverket AB using the US Army Corps of Engineers (SACE) software HEC-RAS 6.3. The terrain data comes from Nasa.'s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and are available from the United States Geographical Survey (USGS).

The model is not based on actual measurements of the current state of the Dnipro flow, waterline, temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed and anything else which would affect the model, but on assumptions for a worst case.

Assumptions include that the water-level in the dam is 13 meters above the Dnipro downstream, and that the dam break over an hour expands to a width of approximately 200, 400 and 1800 meters.

The destruction of the dam by Russia would be a war crime according to the Geneva Convention.
A place of interest for the immediate future:
1686091189582.png
 
What happens upriver as the reservoir drains? Wouldn't it narrow the width, making it easier to cross with less exposure time out in the open water?

As the other thread's zigglers are both simultaneously blaming the Ukrainians for the dam and being gleeful at "drowning hohols" (they really enjoy the suffering of a white Christian nation, REALLY makes one think whether or not these individuals originate from such nations themselves), an Ukrainian officer told CNN that Russian soldiers have been the ones drowning:
Drowning is a terrifying and awful way to die, I wouldn't wish it on anyone fighting in this war on either side anymore than I'd want to see them burned alive. War is hell, I get that, but we don't need to make it even worse on our own initiative.

On top of that, it will probably be impossible to find or reclaim the bodies of anyone who died to give them a proper burial. They should be ashamed of themselves for these sentiments but hatred poisons your soul worse than any vice.
 

William Spaniel has a calm and clear overview of this deeply stupid Russian action, wherein Russia closed the damn sluice gates so the water level of flooding would be the worst possible (which strongly suggests the action was planned). For me it seems utterly foolish, threatening its hold on Crimea, but the whole war is utterly foolish, shredding the long constructed image of Russian power, largely ending its strategic energy power over Europe, and annihilating its considerable soft power among the European political class. Just about the only influence is among crew of the old commie Orban plus some proudly stupid US politicians who glory in their ignorance, but are thankfully marginal, plus some pajeets and the mullahs of Iran (that dictatorship and Putin ally incidentally leads the world in 'sex change' operations wherein gays get the choice of being trooned out or hanged).
 
Potentially. It depends on how narrow the Dnipro is naturally at any given point.
That's a good point, it's hard to know for sure since most of these areas alongside the original river course have been underwater since the 1930s-1950s.

In any case I imagine it would take some time for the muddy sediment to dry and to clear any accumulated debris.
 
they really enjoy the suffering of a white Christian nation
Most ziggers aren't aware that the Ukrainian population has a higher percentage of Christians, partially because, unlike Russia, Ukraine has freedom of religion, so Protestants and Catholics are free to proselytize there. In Russia everything that is not officially a state religion gets oppressed, and the only Christian denomination that is legal is the caesaropapist death cult they call the Moscow Patriarchate (Muslims are specifically protected too). The poor Moscow Orthodog priests that get "oppressed" in Ukraine only administer to some 4% of the population.
Zigger grifters forget to mention that these Moscow dogs actively work to sus out and report orthodox priests in occupied Ukraine who don't concede ultimate authority in spiritual matters to the Kremlin, while their Russian government comrades burn and loot churches and torture priests. They also used their properties in free Ukraine as safe houses and weapon stores for Russian agents, and directly infiltrate FSB agents as priests, and those activities are why the Ukrainian government is cracking down on them, not because Ukraine is ruled by Satanists who hate Jesus.

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I doubt any new crossing points will emerge from the dam being blown. The damage certainly created a large reservoir, but that reservoir will just get replaced with a large river instead...with muddy swamps where the reservoir was.

The more immediate issue is that this will deprive the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Station with its immediate coolant supply. Thankfully it seems even this sort of catastrophe was planned for and there is a warer retention pond above the height of the river. I think some veiled threats need to be delivered to the Kremlin that "accidents" with that pond won't be tolerated.

It's still only a temporary measure though. People need to remember that even if there is not a catastrophic explosion at ZNPS, a meltdown would dump highly radioactive materiel into the Dnieper, on into the black sea and ultimately the Medditeranean. Depending on the severity, Ukraines agriculture, which accounts for 25% of the world's grain and a Hugh percentage of Seed Oil production would be wiped out at a stroke. There will be legit famines in many parts of the world as consequence. The entire southern European seafood industry would also be wiped out.
 
In the big picture Biden is responsible. He relaxed some of the sanctions on the Russians allowing them to continue building one of their pipelines. The Russians probably wouldn't be in Ukraine right now if Trump was president.
It would be a uneasy truce at best if would've managed lead US leaving NATO if other member states didn't contribute more fiscally and military wise, Ukraine would've been boned long time ago.

Leader states of NATO are FUBAR. Macron is kissing CCP ass and anti NATO sentiment is growing perhaps fueled by FSB ops in same way that Quran burner in Sweden was linked to Russian intelligence.

In Germany they have to deal with rise of far right and anti NATO. Politicians are flip flopping little shits things like : We'll only send panthers if US sends Abrams!

No-one seem to notice strategic importance Baltics and gulf of Finland. There's straight route from St Petersburg to Kaliningrad.

If I can think like Trump for a moment he would propose North and South Korea type border along ”autonomous” region which would never work now that Ukraine counter attack into Crimea is in full swing.

A cease-fire like that would leave a ticking time bomb with ethnicities who hate eachother. Northern border with Belarus which stores Russian tactical nukes.
 
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