Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[draggs]

I have seen reports of Wagner taking parts of Voronezh oblast, but do we know they have taken Voronezh city (which is in the northern part of the oblast?

There's video claiming to be of Wagner men at the Voronezh M4 interchange, and Reuters reporting a Russian source claims Wagner has taken over the military facilities 'in Voronezh' (which might not mean the city)

As far as muh ammo vatniggers need to stop embarrassing themselves, American production is about 40% larger now than it was last year and is expected to be about 4 times larger next year than it is now

 

[WhiteNight]

Hey guys I'm back! been stuck at work last couple of week so haven't been able to report in

What did I miss?

Nothing.


From AP Wagner Telegram:

Pypa made the wrong choice. So much the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president.

https://t.me/apwagner/9130

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Holy shit there's so many videos on telegram and Twitter of convoys going north up the highways in broad daylight, Grad launchers, tonks, APCs, military trucks, civilian vehicles, Wagner infantry strolling around Voronezh, not a concern in the world, no one trying to stop them at all. Huge juicy targets that would get utterly annihilated from the air the way they are taking absolutely zero precautions and they're getting away with it

Can't even call it a thunder run, there's no opposition for them to rush past guns blazing. More like a nice morning commute

Chimputin what doing?

There's probably only police in place who's in position to do anything, and I don't think any of them feel suicidal enough to take on a hardened military unit.
Fuck, I've seen clips of police cars passing by and giving them greetings.

 

[Night Crawler]

I just watched this video about and all I can say is holy shit. It's 100% real. It's fucking happening. The Russians are going to the fortress plan for Moscow. The crazy bastard is actually doing it. I hope Prigozhin is successful. I like what he is saying and I am totally team Prigozhin. I hope he makes them all fucking pay. The war for the Russian side has been awful and they need to pay for doing this shit the Russian soldiers. This is also great for the Ukrainians.

This is even better than waiting for the Ukrainians to get over their performance anxiety for their offensive.

I will definitely be watching this from now on. A violent coup in Russia is way more interesting than anything going on in the US right now.

Here is what I watched.

 

[Not At All A Lizard]

Say what you want about Chef, but he knows how to put on a show.

Also, these Wagner guys are probably some of the most battle hardened (and war weary) guys in the world right now. A bunch of 'military' bureaucrats seeing them turn up must be shitting themselves. These guys have been ankle deep in blood and guts for months, they're not gonna give a fuck.

 

[Hall of Cost Payer]

I hope Prigozhin is successful. I like what he is saying and I am totally team Prigozhin. I hope he makes them all fucking pay. The war for the Russian side has been awful and they need to pay for doing this shit the Russian soldiers. This is also great for the Ukrainians.

I think Chef winning this is bad for Ukraine. He was able to actually build a competent army and most Ukrainians fighting fear Wagner more than regular troops.

I think Prigozhin taking power would be more interesting or more funny, though.

But for Ukraine the best case would be for the MoD and Wagner to both take heavy losses from this.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

I think Chef winning this is bad for Ukraine. He was able to actually build a competent army and most Ukrainians fighting fear Wagner more than regular troops.

I think Prigozhin taking power would be more interesting or more funny, though.

But for Ukraine the best case would be for the MoD and Wagner to both take heavy losses from this.

I seriously doubt anyone is going to tolerate Prigozhin in any official position of power, personal army or not.
Let's hope it's the latter and they waste each other, Ukraine wins from this disruption either way. Russians are generally just confused and people are taking sides, that's quite interesting.

Prigozhin is bad news though, it doesn't seem he has any intent to stop this war, if he gets his way, we might end up with general mobilization and even more ruthless crackdown on dissent. He talks a lot about securing gains at the very least, and that there's supposedly no other choice but to continue fighting (just without the incompetent MoD).
Fuck that.

 

[Ghostse]

Wagner now claims it has control of Voronezh. 24 hours and Wagner controls two large cities on the main highway from the south to Moscow, and is halfway to the Kremlin looks like 3 days is back on the menu boys

With Chimputin's speech, civil war it is. Should've known with the way vatniggers and other faggots talk about muh civil war in Murica so much that Russia would have one first

That retarded monke in the Kremlin better hope Chef's claims of lots of regular army taking his side isn't true. He can't do anything but lose in Ukraine if Wagner isn't taken out quick

That little speech was also low energy af despite his looking visibly pissed. Monke looks tired and you can see the skull through his face now. Tired old monke, how sad

> tfw you take Moscow faster than it took you to take Bahkmut

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

An Antonov An-26 Transport Aircraft with the Russian Air Force is now Confirmed to have been Shot Down today by Wagner PMC Forces somewhere in the Voronezh Region of Western Russia; it was originally thought that this could be a Video from last year but that is not the case.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672532826703503361
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/8lfcv

Should add that some people are saying this video is old, but sentdefender is now saying the 'old' claims are false and this is in fact from today. Could be either way. Fighterbomber (pro-Ru) telegram says it's real, and Wagner seems to have control of Pantsir systems, among other sophisticated AA systems.

 

[Peter Piper]

Best case is a long drawn out conflict. While Prigozhin could say "Faggot Putin fucked up with this war, I'm taking my ball and going home to make Russia great again." A slightly more competent war is more likely.

*Edit: This whole debacle is hilarious and I hope the Russians take huge losses.

 

[Super Saiyan Hitler]

Kadyrov's TikTok brigades have joined the fight against their former Wagner allies.

Friends, it's been a busy night and flights have not given me time to voice my position on this heinous DEATH!

Everything that is going on is a knife in the back and a real military rebellion!

I have repeatedly warned that war is no time for voicing personal grievances and resolving disputes in our rear. The home front must always be calm and secure. Imagine how the guys in the trenches feel now, with the enemy in their face and a treacherous adventure behind them. This is about stability, about state cohesion, about the security of citizens.

History shows that such actions can lead to bloody consequences. Haven't we suffered enough losses on the SMO? Do we still have to create problems inside the country?

We have a Supreme Commander-in-Chief, elected by the people, who knows the whole situation in every detail better than any strategist, much less a businessman, calls the commanders "on the ground" himself and fully controls the course of SMO. And the Commander-in-Chief's decisions are taken in a measured, meticulous manner. Each of us sees only one part of the map, but he sees all at once! And Vladimir Vladimirovich absolutely rightly noted in his address to the nation - this is a military mutiny! There is no justification for such actions!
I fully support every word of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin!

I appeal to the fighters, the patriots of our homeland. Do not fall for provocations. No matter what goals they may promise you, no matter what promises they make, at a time like this, the security of the state and the cohesion of Russian society is paramount! Look at how our enemies in the West are taking advantage of this situation. How many insinuations, how many lies, how many false appeals that frighten our citizens and create the danger of a destabilizing situation. And these are the expected consequences of Prigozhin's treasonous march.

What is happening is not an ultimatum to the Ministry of Defense. It is a challenge to the state, and against this challenge it is necessary to unite all around the national leader: the military, security forces, governors, the civilian population.

Soldiers of the Ministry of Defense and the Federal Guard Service of the Republic of Chechnya have already left for the zones of tension. We will do everything to preserve the unity of Russia and protect her statehood!

The insurgency must be suppressed, and if tough measures have to be taken for that, we are ready!

https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/3717

 

[Uranus Pink]

there's never a wrong time to stomp on brits tbh

But is it really a Brit if you're happen to be stomping on a pajeet and/or paki while in England?

 

[Ghostse]

I think Chef winning this is bad for Ukraine. He was able to actually build a competent army and most Ukrainians fighting fear Wagner more than regular troops.

Potentially.
tl;dr: Chef is a talking head. He doesn't know shit, never actually served (except conscript service). He got given Wagner by Putin, taking over from another guy: This guy was fairly legit, ex-Russian SF, and he came up with the idea of the "plausible deniability" PMC. He built the 'core' team which is (supposedly) mostly South African mercenaries who know their shit, and they use their military contacts to get guys from Russia and elsewhere with SF experience to form the rest of the 'core'.
Chef took over and, by all accounts, did not fuck with the formula and lets the SF guys who actually run the outfit, run it.
And while this seems like a zero skill thing to do, let me assure you: the number of people who will come to the leadership of a successful operation and not make changes, instead of fucking everything up so they can 'leave their mark' is very small.

Chef is the leader of Wagner, but these ex-SF guys are who actually run it, from recruiting to training to procurement to negotiating contracts.

No one seems to be sure exactly how much of Chef is Prigozhin and how much is a puppet master or masters. He very clearly has minders to keep him from getting ventilated, but its hard to tell if Live Streaming from the front was their idea or Chef's. He might have had a long term plan to get into the halls of power, or it might have been planted in his head.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

I seriously doubt anyone is going to tolerate Prigozhin in any official position of power, personal army or not.

He won't be in power. No doubt, some Oligarch faction is backing him, they just haven't shown their hand yet in case this doesn't pan out. If he really does overthrow Putin, they will swoop in and quickly take control. No doubt he gets a cushy position, but he won't be calling the shots.

 

[Ghostse]

Whoever is filming doesn’t run away from the explosion, as you would expect if they feared more artillery or rocket strikes, but moves toward it.

Now granted this was against Haji launching dumb rockets or a mortar or two, not smart missiles and massed artillery, and when I got the training if we needed to use it was generally accepted that if we had to put it into practice this would mean the in-country situation had gone distinctly sideways, but we were trained if shelled to get in cover and then run towards the direction the explosion, as the odds of Haji putting another round where the first one landed were nil and if there was nothing else around to help, you could go prone in the impact crater. When the second shot landed you were supposed to move towards the most friendly direction at a right angle to both impacts.

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

UAWeapons twitter is asserting that the fixed-wing aircraft that was shot down today was an Il-22M, a variant of the Il-18, not an An-26. Edit: He is probably wrong, since Il-22M has four props, but he is citing fighterbomber as a source.

A Russian Il-22M communications aircraft (reportedly RF-75917) was shot down by Wagner forces in Voronezh Oblast.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1672542143280234496
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/FgB14

 

[Not At All A Lizard]

So Kadyrov is now claiming to be coming in as the loyalists' faction to take down the Wagners. Hollywood hasn't written anything this grand in decades.

On the topic of 'What if Prigozhin becomes Tsar', apart from how unlikely that is to happen, the idea that all of the Russian army would gain +2 to combat and suddenly become stronger is a little silly. The amount of confusion and changing of staff alone will be a detriment long before it's an advantage. Not to mention that a lot of the success of Wagner has been the willingness to throw cannon fodder at the enemy old-school, not so much strategic genius. I personally doubt that Prigozhin would be able to mobilize another 500k Russians to be cannon fodder to begin with (as Putin might be able to).

 

[World in Scarlet]

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[Coffee Mugshot]

Ka-52 attack helicopter seen in numerous videos blowing up an oil refinery/depot in Voronezh, presumably to prevent Wagner from obtaining it. Alternative speculation is that Wagner fired on the Ka-52 with a Strela-10, missed, and the missiles hit the depot. Video elsewhere seems to show a Strela-10 firing at a Ka-52.

 

[teriyakiburns]

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Stuff like this makes me think he's unlikely to turn around and go back to prosecuting the war in ukraine, if he wins. The claims he's making - that essentially, the war was promoted by the corrupt for their personal enrichment - are devastating to the case for war. Even if Putin decisively ends this rebellion, enough dissent has been created to severely damage his prior image as the unchallenged strong man in the eyes of the people, as well as destroying his claims about the reasons for the war.