Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

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another Merc down
 
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Frens, I understand that it's lazy to ask for information to be spoonfed to me, and trust me I do spend time gathering it myself, but just as a way for me to ease some tension and doubts, can I please ask for a quick rundown on:
1. Why I should be hopeful that Russia can achieve its goals
2. Why I should be pessimistic about Ukrainians achieving their goals
3. What to expect in the near future
Thanks and hoping everyone has a good upcoming weekend.
 
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fanofdodo0w0 said:
Frens, I understand that it's lazy to ask for information to be spoonfed to me, and trust me I do spend time gathering it myself, but just as a way for me to ease some tension and doubts, can I please ask for a quick rundown on:
1. Why I should be hopeful that Russia can achieve its goals
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Because both momentum and common sense are on Russia's side, very succinctly:

Momentum because the UAF hasn't really been able to do anything overtly positive for a year, while Russia has been racking up both minor and major gains in territory fairly consistently, while avoiding unnecessary casualties

and common sense because "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must". Russia is the bigger, more powerful country and manufactures its own munitions and equipment. Anything the UAF does in the future must be in reaction to what the Russians do, because, as the counter-offensive proved, Ukraine cannot break through Russian lines anymore.
fanofdodo0w0 said:
2. Why I should be pessimistic about Ukrainians achieving their goals
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Ukraine is wholly and completely dependent on foreign aid. This is a bad thing to be even under the best circumstances. Europe and the US do not produce enough tanks, IFVs, APCs airplanes, artillery pieces, self propelled guns or ammunition for the aforementioned pieces of equipment to properly fight a war of this scale, let alone if Russia decided to escalate further. They have been taking far too many casualties in hare-brained schemes and defending pieces of land of dubious importance, and this has been a common theme for the entirety of the war.

Not only this, but they have already failed to achieve their goals - Crimea, and really, anything the Russians currently hold, is never returning to Ukrainian hands (as proven by the 2023 counter-offensive, its size will never be replicated, and it failed to really achieve anything), and this was one of the explicit goals of continuing the war instead of negotiation for peace. Any way this war ends, it will end with official recognition of Crimea and the territories of the DPR and LPR as part of the Russian Federation. The reality is that Ukraine has lost, and now we are deciding how badly.
fanofdodo0w0 said:
3. What to expect in the near future
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Same as always. We could be looking at the beginning of a snowball, where due to Syrski's incompetence, or even generally that the Ukrainian forces are spent beyond what is normal, Ukraine is no longer able to effectively hold positions everywhere at once as much as it used to, while the Russians have managed to effectively conserve both personnel and equipment for future offensive maneuvers.

Or alternatively, the war "stops" for a while, and then the Russians resume offensive operations, as is usually the case.

This is a very simplified explanation, obviously, but I think that's the gist of things.
 
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Here is a funny Drone Patch I found. I don't know why it exists or who specifically uses it but it made me laugh.
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Male Idiot said:
Zero Two is very nice.

That said, was it 1800 Casaulities or KIA? Casaulities is the military term for "not operational" , which isn't specifically dead.

So Hohol with a shot up hand who needs 6 months off the war is a casaulity.
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I have no idea what you are referring to with the 1800 number. If you are referring to the MoD's statement on Avdeevka it was Ukrainians killed. I think That figure also only refers to Ukrainians lost during the retreat I don't think it applied to Ukrainians killed in the city.
 
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Just Some Other Guy said:
Why yes, I'd like to hear about New Vegas politics in long form posts for the 100th time. And how KOTOR is the best game ever.
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The only things you need to know about the New Vegas Factions:

NCR: Gay, bottom fags. Literally Californians
Legion: Gay, but at least they're tops, so they're very militantly gay. They kill Californians on site for being degenerate, which is odd because they're still gay, but kind of based.
House: Gay, but libertarian. Best Option to use to get the other two main factions to fuck off back where they came. Mildly based
Yes Man: A machine easily controlled by the player so that you can rule New Vegas yourself, very based anarchy choice that will probably fuck New Vegas after your character dies, but who cares about that, honestly.

You can either side with House or Yes Man, or you can be a faggot. None of the other factions matter enough to bother, but wipe out the Brotherhood of Steel just to be sure, because you get a neat orbital laser weapon from the Solar Power Plant.
 
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Just Some Other Guy said:
Why yes, I'd like to hear about New Vegas politics in long form posts for the 100th time. And how KOTOR is the best game ever.
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He does the same in the 40k thread, giant autistic walls of text trying to shoehorn his politics into the setting.
 
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sneedpest said:
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another Merc down
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Oh no, not Senor Macaco!

Useful_Mistake said:
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That nigga is not worth tree fiddy. They would literally have to pay me to watch Tucker interview Bojo the Clown.

I get that it's supposed to be a condescending way of telling Tucker to fuck off, but it misses the mark by a fucking mile and just makes Bojo look like even more of a clown.
 
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Rubick said:
I honestly hope Russians resurrect old Late Soviet space based programs. Just for Americans to really cry about something. Besides "inspector” satellites
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Honestly reviving the space program would do great for national morale, and would be a release valve for all the energy that would lose purpose once Russia wins the war and starts tapering off military work.

While all the other nations are in the middle of financial imploding and immigrant invasions Russia will be building space stations and planning to colonize the moon.

Overly Serious said:
Visual Heuristics is a term from graphic design so far as I'm aware. I wondered what on Earth you were on about and your numbers didn't make sense to me. I thought possibly you were mocking my own number crunching but I also thought maybe this is something I'm unfamiliar with. My own understanding of Probability caps out at some very basic use of Binomial Theorem so I asked for an explanation of where you were getting this stuff from.
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Admittedly I didn't initially check if Visual Heuristics was a thing, I was using it as a phrase for "I made up numbers that I think look right and I wanted people to know they're made up" and hoping it got understood. I guess I was finding that I was getting a lot of positive reactions to my posts, which I felt was unwarranted giving that for most of this things I'm commenting on I don't have extreme depth of knowledge in and was just doing summarizations of other people's comments and observations from here and other sources.
 
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Saleh said:
On a side note, Krinky has been taken back by the Russians.

The Russians reported 1,820 Ukrainian casualties there (probably greatly exaggerated and more likely to be in the high hundreds) Still though, that operation was pointless and the ones who planned it are pretty much braindead.

AFU dickriders will cope by saying that Russia was unable to retake the town in many months but the reality is that the town was converted into a firebag in which many AFU supplying missions perished while trying to cross the river and the garrison in the town pretty much spent all of their time locked in a basement with little to no possibility to push out of the bridgehead.
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Napoleon III said:
I have no idea what you are referring to with the 1800 number. If you are referring to the MoD's statement on Avdeevka it was Ukrainians killed. I think That figure also only refers to Ukrainians lost during the retreat I don't think it applied to Ukrainians killed in the city.
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I was talking about the number in Krinky about hohol casaulities.
 
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The Ugly One said:
Math:
If I have 50 missiles, and N of them are duds, the probability of choosing 2 duds is (N choose 2) / (50 choose 2) =
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I think this is about as good as we can do without more information. The formula is right but it carries with it the assumption that duds occur independently (one dud being fired doesnt affect the odds of the next shot -- probably true) and that they originate from the same population (probably not true).

Like if Ukraine got 10 missiles from batch TRN-41 and 40 missiles from batch NG-1351, then you cant really fit a binomial model to it because you have two different distributions within the target population.

Even if we didnt have the assumption problems I think we would want to do a small sample size correction (something like n+2 / N+4) because n=x=2
 
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