Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[bread n circuses]

Apparently Ukrainians tried to do an another pr op. This time to take over the Tendra lighthouse (pictured in this map).
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https://t.me/rybar/57678

Spoiler: The aftermath (dead bodies)

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I find this more fucked up than most parts of the war. Sending your soldiers out on a dinghy, unsupported, to go die in a mission that had 0 strategic relevance even if it succeeded. And these people talk about Russians using human waves?

 

[Mr. Confederate Man]

human waves

Ukraine must have decided that Mediterranean waves are better

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

I honestly never understood the yuro fascination with the US, which has always made it clear any conflict with the USSR/Russia would be fought in Europe; literally to the last yuro. That's what the US thinks of yuros, simply chair à canon for any conflict with Russia.

Well there was nowhere else for the war to be fought - And besides, America had already nearly single handedly financed rebuilding most of Europe from the ground up again. The US not being involved wouldn't make war in europe any less likely, as that's all of worth that the USSR could really reach. And that reality didn't change too much when the USSR fell, just that Russia had to spend some time fucking around in the successor states to secure other, presumably easier holes in their perceived security first.

Euros don't want Russian tanks rolling through the Fulda gap, but were smart enough back when to know that their wants didn't have much influence on Reality. Inertia's just carried it forward, with a healthy dose of ignorance.

I find this more fucked up than most parts of the war. Sending your soldiers out on a dinghy, unsupported, to go die in a mission that had 0 strategic relevance even if it succeeded. And these people talk about Russians using human waves?

It is fucked up, but the train of thought is obvious. Attack something that should be weak, take some PR shots to convince western BBC readers that Ukraine is striking back, can strike back, and just needs big guns and bigger ammo stocks to do even better. Problem is normies don't care, the war's "normal" now, and political goodwill is fading with it. They did this successfully early in the war, feels like they're trying to recapture that lightning in a bottle.

 

[geckogoy]

feels like they're trying to recapture that lightning in a bottle.

Its not really lightning in a bottle to capture some lighthouse. Minding, failing to capture one also is not.

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

The high-speed rail project in california was probably as close as the US has ever come. What happened in that situation was that the money was generally either stolen or misappropriated to other projects. It was epic public corruption and nothing whatsoever could be done about it.

Florida's Brightline

 

[Tamerlane]

The high-speed rail project in california was probably as close as the US has ever come. What happened in that situation was that the money was generally either stolen or misappropriated to other projects. It was epic public corruption and nothing whatsoever could be done about it.

I recall it was costing a billion per mile in litigation before any construction ever started.

 

[Napoleon III]

Battlefield report
The big news today is that Russia took both the rest of Orlivka and Berdychi. This was really surprising especially in the way that it happened. Ukraine took casualties here but I expected way more and it didn't happen due what is below.

Looking here Ukrainians actually made the entirely correct move and decided to retreat from these places rather than hold them like Larping idiots. This might just be the first time I can think of where Ukraine has made the smart decision to retreat when they couldn't hold rather than conducting an idiotic last stand. Part of this might be because they would do an idiotic last stand but Discipline has broken down a bit and they are scared of a breakdown in command like with what happened in Avdeevka.

This basically an image of them holding enough to allow for a retreat in Orlivka.


If reports are correct Ukraine is building trenches very far away from the current frontline west of Avdeevka. This is actually good decision making. With the state the Avdeevka front is in there is likely no way for Ukraine to stabilize without some basic fortifications. I don't know if they will be able to build them in time especially if they start getting harassed by Russian Aviation. Interesting to note that Ukraine is actually starting to make good decisions here. The situation must be really bad.



Russia made some progress in Ivanivske. Not a massive amount but some and Russia has made a little bit of progress in the north. I expect Ivanivske to fall somewhat soon and for there to be a chaotic retreat. I think Ukraine will try and hold Ivanivske rather than retreating because it is the key to Chasov Yar. Ivanivske sits on the high ground and is therefore extremely important and once it is lost Chasov Yar will be decently easy to take. This also fits with how Ukraine has been fighting here. The fighting has been extremely brutal and the Ukrainians are really fighting hard with what looks like whatever spare reserves Ukraine can muster up being sent here. This is part of the reason this direction has gone somewhat slow.



Russia made some advances near Krasnohorivka.


Suggestions for Twitter accounts and Youtube accounts that I use to steal a lot of information from:
https://www.youtube.com/@Kalibratedwithscott does Livestream about the situation and explains things better than I do also does mapping that I steal.
https://twitter.com/rybar_force Does mapping and does short videos about the situation on twitter
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT Does mapping I like him particularly because he often gets Russian sources quickly
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps Does mapping but places massive watermarks on them

 

[Fapcop]

Its not really lightning in a bottle to capture some lighthouse. Minding, failing to capture one also is not.

Welp… What an idiotic mission.

Why on earth those guys didn’t go “Yes sir!” And then steer their little boat towards Bulgaria is beyond me.

Or cover their boat in white tshirts or wait for the coast guard to take them prisoner.

Ukrops are gonna ukrop I guess.

 

[Myrtle the Turtle]

Apparently Ukrainians tried to do an another pr op. This time to take over the Tendra lighthouse (pictured in this map).

I googled the lighthouse itself, theres nothing around for miles, no strategic purpose. Its in the middle of nowhere and is not readily accessible. There are some little villages but they are separated by water and marsh.
What was the goal here? Were they going to blow up the lighthouse or something? Do some espionage? Take out a strategic target? Set up some communication gear?
This was some dumb photo-op. They recaptured it for a few days in Dec '23.

This operation served no purpose. 60 years ago you could argue a lighthouse was important to guide ships but these days that doesn't matter with GPS, sonar, lidar, night vision etc. What a waste.

 

[Fapcop]

If reports are correct Ukraine is building trenches very far away from the current frontline west of Avdeevka. This is actually good decision making.

Doubt it’ll help them.

It’s a totally different situation than with the deep Russian defenses.

What limited defenses they’ll be able to build with the time and tools available won’t be enough, and with their superiority in drones, artillery and air power the Russians can grind them down and push through.

Avdeyevka was the biggest fortification they had and it didn’t hold.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

Interesting to note that Ukraine is actually starting to make good decisions here. The situation must be really bad.

I wonder how much of the change is from the new command structure after shitcanning the last guy. Depending on what you think of it, More local commanders might be making decisions to preserve resources while the new guy figures out his grand plan. I find it exceedingly unlikely the new chief is ordering the withdraws himself, considering the not one step backwards mentality Zelenski has on this stuff.

This operation served no purpose. 60 years ago you could argue a lighthouse was important to guide ships but these days that doesn't matter with GPS, sonar, lidar, night vision etc. What a waste.

Redditors in NAFO don't know shit about strategic value though. I'm still confident that this was attempted PR for the Ignorant Masses - Folks not following the frontlines, advances, retreats etc. All they know is "War in Ukraine", and if they hear "Ukraine recaptures lighthouse in Crimea" then it sounds to normies like the Russians got pushed back to Crimea, same way people thought it was last time. Normies like winning, and I assume the hope was to change their sentiment to make them be more supportive of their elected officials sending billions in weapons to Ukraine.

 

[Cuckoman]

That is one of the things about this war that shocks me. If you were a Ukrainian who was powerful and could get some of that corruption money, you have the decision to make about whether to steal it or invest that money into a successful future Ukrainian state in the form of weapons manufacturing which would pay dividends to you. But nearly everyone in power implicitly doesn't think there will be a future Ukraine so they steal for the present.

All signs point to them collectively lacks the understanding of a future tense or the concept of delayed gratification.
'We have to invest/work on this thing today so that they do not break tomorrow.' is all a completely foreign concept to these people.
And this is not a new thing that just started now due to the war. Ever since they broke off the USSR this has been happening in their country. Roads, sewage systems, electrical grid, machinery, ... you name it. Zero maintenance of things, zero understanding about planning for the future. Instead of maintaining things they just watch while it falls into disrepair until it catastrophically fail beyond repair.

I have said it before, this country is the european version of EmpireOfDust. It was like this since day one. Well before this war started.

 

[Susanna]

That is one of the things about this war that shocks me. If you were a Ukrainian who was powerful and could get some of that corruption money, you have the decision to make about whether to steal it or invest that money into a successful future Ukrainian state in the form of weapons manufacturing which would pay dividends to you. But nearly everyone in power implicitly doesn't think there will be a future Ukraine so they steal for the present.

And before anyone thinks this is obviously the correct decision. Let me point out how much aid money Ukraine has received. Ukraine has received hundreds of Billions of dollars. You can do absurd amounts of useful things with that much money if you used it efficiently. Not enough to win against Russia but enough to actually turn this war into a stalemate.

Even the Ukrainians in power don't believe Ukraine is a real country.

You can't just throw money on the ground and have it grow into a working factory over a year. You can use that money to import tools and machines, even some prefab structures, but for the most part you first need to wait for manpower to be available that can raise the actual structure, then you need engineers to install all the machines and equipment, then you need a year or two to train the workforce. And because that workforce doesn't already exist (Ukraine was in a demographic crisis even before all the young men who would otherwise be working in factories got sent off to die in a ditch) you'll need to pay Turkey to divert some of the euro refugee stream into Ukraine, then put those men through about five years of schooling to ensure they can read the language and do basic math, plus half of them need another two to five years to learn the skills needed to operate the more complicated machines and processes. Even with a financial incentive not many refugees will choose to go to Ukraine when they can just go to Sweden and get paid more to do literally fuck all.

The reality is no European country can just "start a new factory" in this age. The manpower for that has to come out of another factory, and there are already not enough of those.

 

[blackjack101]

https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1762857934466298309

First photos of the latest Russian bicaliber MLRS "Vozrozhdenie". This system is capable of firing Hurricane, Smerch, and TOS Solntsepek missiles of various calibers from one chassis.

Launcher for lancets still in the making

 

[Fapcop]

https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1762857934466298309

First photos of the latest Russian bicaliber MLRS "Vozrozhdenie". This system is capable of firing Hurricane, Smerch, and TOS Solntsepek missiles of various calibers from one chassis.
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Launcher for lancets still in the making
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Smart move to put it on a truck chassis. Should make it a lot cheaper to produce.

I wonder how much of the change is from the new command structure after shitcanning the last guy. Depending on what you think of it, More local commanders might be making decisions to preserve resources while the new guy figures out his grand plan. I find it exceedingly unlikely the new chief is ordering the withdraws himself, considering the not one step backwards mentality Zelenski has on this stuff.

I doubt it comes from above. It’s likely that the command structure is starting to break down and these withdrawals come from below.

All signs point to them collectively lacks the understanding of a future tense or the concept of delayed gratification.

It’s just in the nature of the beast.

Ukraine is an artificial creation, and every politician for the past 30 years have done nothing but enrich themselves and their oligarch partners and cash out when the voters get enough and the next crook gets into power.

It’s what you get when you combine the artificial nature of the state with the corruption that became endemic in the USSR in the last couple of decades.

Zero maintenance of things, zero understanding about planning for the future. Instead of maintaining things they just watch while it falls into disrepair until it catastrophically fail beyond repair.

True.

Ukraine was a jewel of the USSR.

The state pumped resources in it (often from Russia), and built an impressive infrastructure and industrial base.

Ukraine had a missile/rocket industry, a heavy machinery industry, nuclear power plants, an aviation industry.

All that is gone. All the factories have closed, machinery broken or sold or only a shell of what used to be there remains.

It’s mismanagement in a colossal scale, only South Africa can compete.

 

[prolapsed_cranium]

Welp.,.

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When was the last time we built a new railway in the west? Not just fixing a broken one, but a brand new one?

Yep. They've put in a few spur lines and the road to Melitopol is being widened to 4 lanes.

 

[Anasûrimbor Kellhus]

What limited defenses they’ll be able to build with the time and tools available won’t be enough

seems like a key point. Avdeevka and Bakhmut had years put into fortifying them and they fell I don't see whatever they do now having impact on the overall outcome

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Well there was nowhere else for the war to be fought - And besides, America had already nearly single handedly financed rebuilding most of Europe from the ground up again. The US not being involved wouldn't make war in europe any less likely, as that's all of worth that the USSR could really reach. And that reality didn't change too much when the USSR fell, just that Russia had to spend some time fucking around in the successor states to secure other, presumably easier holes in their perceived security first.

Euros don't want Russian tanks rolling through the Fulda gap, but were smart enough back when to know that their wants didn't have much influence on Reality. Inertia's just carried it forward, with a healthy dose of ignorance.

I get that the deal was "We'll rebuild it and you let us keep out military here" but after several decades, the end of the USSR and the enormous benefit Russian resources had for the European economy should have forced some changes; instead voters kept the old boomers around because socialized medicine, benefits and nationalism was for Nazis. They carried on with the status quo and imported niggers and arabs. Yuros got lazy and now they have to face the consequences; war or peace.

And America isn't coming to the rescue this time. Americans aren't hohol nigger cattle. They can and will frag Lt. Brittany (formerly Bob) when xir insists they do a suicide mission against Russian Mstas or TOS-1M, gladly surrender then ask to form an American volunteer unit to help take out the zogniks that sent them to die. DoD knows this which is why they're desperately signing up illegals who will have even less loyalty than Cpl. Jim Bob to the trannified United States of Israel. So, sorry to say, it ain't happening on our end.

 

[Fapcop]

The reality is no European country can just "start a new factory" in this age. The manpower for that has to come out of another factory, and there are already not enough of those.

Important points here.

The days where you could just take anyone off the streets or house wives, give them a rivet gun, and have tanks or planes come off the manufacturing lines are long over.

Modern CNC tools and machines need years of schooling to operate.

Even the Russian industry is running into not enough workers, and they haven’t mass mobilized or had millions of men flee abroad.

So there are no easy solutions for Ukraine and NATO. Only political ones. That may take another six months to realize though.

(And if you happen to have CNC experience and are looking for a job, Russian factories are HIRING. Wages have ballooned there because of the shortage.)

 

[Seedling]

The Bastion of European Democracy™ wants to ban Telegram.

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You got to wonder how strong and true these governments in the west are when a couple of pro-Russian shitposters on social media are enough of an existencial threat to your rule that it warrants denying your citizens access to it.