Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Feline Supremacist]

Sounds more forceful in German imo.

The opinion that Western arms supplies will turn the strategic situation at the front in Kiev’s favor is a fallacy. The ex-chairman of the NATO military committee, Harald Kujat, speaks about this. He also reminded the audience that “there were negotiations in Istanbul with an excellent result for Ukraine.”

“All the dead Ukrainians, as well as all the dead or wounded Russians after April 9, are due to the fact that Ukraine was not allowed to sign this peace treaty,” says Kujat. Link

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Battle for Krasnogorovka: fighting in the residential area 2 March 2024

The AFU in Krasnogorovka: "We're fucked."

Украинские новости и героические постановочные видео про Красногоровку оказались сильно преувеличены.

В выдуманном мире разодетые как спецназовцы (запрещены в РФ) из 3ей штурмовой бригады героически берут дом за домом.

Реальные же видео демонстрируют нам людей из обычных частей, которым не посчастливилось попасть в тик-ток войска, вынужденных с потерями и без артиллерии пытаться выбить из застройки наших штурмовиков, что заканчивается логично.

Ukrainian news and heroic staged videos about Krasnogorovka turned out to be greatly exaggerated.

In a fictional world, dressed up as special forces (banned in the Russian Federation) from the 3rd assault brigade heroically take house after house.

The real videos show us people from ordinary units who were not lucky enough to get into the tiktok troops, forced to try to knock our stormtroopers out of the building with losses and without artillery, which ends logically.
link (in Russian)

Communication centers and observation posts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Krasnogorovka are destroyed by high-precision weapons. link

A sad story in two sentences: In Krasnogorovka hohols are wildly rejoicing that a tank has come to their aid. A few minutes later the tank is already on fire. link

Spoiler: NSFW, vivid images of dead bodies

"THIS IS DESTRUCTION OF THE NATION - WE'RE DONE, FUCK YOU" - Ukrainian soldier reacts to finding many bodies of his countrymen. link

And here's that heroic Ukranian "freedom and democracy" for a poor babushka.

Ukrainian artilleryman fired a shell into this grandmother's house. link

To the last hohol, as Zelensky demands.

 

[Uncle Holter]

The opinion that Western arms supplies will turn the strategic situation at the front in Kiev’s favor is a fallacy. The ex-chairman of the NATO military committee, Harald Kujat, speaks about this. He also reminded the audience that “there were negotiations in Istanbul with an excellent result for Ukraine.”

He's wrong about one thing though. There are wonder weapons that can totally change a war. They are called Nukes and we don't want to open that Pandora's box. I don't even think NATO would be foolish enough to even consider send nukes to hoholistan and for good reason.
But short of Nukes, no wonder weapon is going to turn this war around.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

The AFU in Krasnogorovka: "We're fucked."

Yea, this is getting rough. While I doubt social media is great reflection of morale at the front (You're not gonna post much "Its ok I guess, Igor got shot but it happens" content with life style shit) it does track that there'd be poor morale alongside consistent defeats and failures to advance in the wider front.

Wonder if Ukraine is gonna push hard again with a counterattack this year - They need the wins, both globally and for local morale, but I wonder if the manpower on the ground even has the courage to do so under such seemingly bleak conditions. Its one thing to advance at the enemy thinking you can push them back [like last time], its another to try and convince your men to do so when they've spent the last few months leaving their dead behind, retreating from shallow foxhole to shallow foxhole, and seemingly not receiving enough replacments, much less getting reliably rotated off the front. Soldiers know their lot is shit, but they're still going to have limits on what they'll do effectively. A demoralized attack force just stops at the first stiff resistance it encounters, and flounders on that line.

I get the feeling that they have to try, even if its doomed to fail - Might be the "loss" outcome is just hoping to hurt and delay Russia enough to push through the next wave of conscripts to fill the line behind them.

 

[World Famous Quasi Payer]

Wonder if Ukraine is gonna push hard again with a counterattack this year - They need the wins, both globally and for local morale

With what? Ukraine's pre-invasion equipment stocks have been depleted. The donated NATO equipment has been depleted, and all Ukraine got with that was a single village and a couple fields; and that was before the Russians knew how to respond to that equipment effectively.

High morale, or not, modern war is mechanized war, and the Ukrainians have a critical lack of everything.

The Ukrainian high command (and their American puppet masters) need to accept that from this point forward, Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against a numerically superior foe, who is better equipped and trained than them. It was time to trade land for lives, yesterday. Now it is time to call for peace and accept territorial losses.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

I’ll try not to say anything too negative about him out of respect for that, but…

The guy was clearly suffering from PTSD and mentally disturbed at the end. Shit like that happens after years of war.

Agreed.

I get the feeling that they have to try, even if its doomed to fail - Might be the "loss" outcome is just hoping to hurt and delay Russia enough to push through the next wave of conscripts to fill the line behind them.

That guy in the second video is probably already dead. Like the guy in the first video I posted said, he and all the others wouldn't be dead if Zelensky wasn't prevented from signing a peace deal that would have satisfied everyone, except the the neocons and their blood lust, two years ago this month.

 

[Fapcop]

Some (cautious) news from the front:



Interesting about the commanders being switched out for more loyal ones. That surely can’t end bad in any way.








Seems like the Russians are continuing to pound them with artillery and FABs to soften them up before launching attacks.

Btw: Did anyone see the video of Navalny’s funeral getting trolled?

There’s like 1000 or 2000 Russian shitlibs all lined up in a long queue, and some guy drives by slowly blasting music out of the open window on the passenger side.

What song was he playing? “I Need A Man Like Putin” a recent Russian pop song.

 

[Rubick]

Btw: Did anyone see the video of Navalny’s funeral getting trolled?

Vid in question.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1763607156949950931

Also, love how western media claims thousands of mourners gathered outside a Moscow church. Despite their best to take photo shots to make it seem so. It clearly isn't.


For a man who the west claims would be the major rival to Putin. The amount of people showed up is frankly laughably small.

 

[Fapcop]

Vid in question.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1763607156949950931

Also, love how western media claims thousands of mourners gathered outside a Moscow church. Despite their best to take photo shots to make it seem so. It clearly isn't.

The goddamn cheekiness of those lying fucks.

MSM: “Russia is a police state and dictatorship! Russians arent behind Putin but if you speak out you’ll get arrested and thrown in jail!”

Also MSM: “Thousands of Russians showed up at Navalny’s funeral, showing their dissatisfaction…”

Also: Moscow is a city of over ten million. You could make a demonstration for woodchucks rights and get a crowd. The crowd that showed up at the funeral was hardly impressive.

I recall reading how someone is a university heard some cheering, and then found out that Navalny had died. Funny how we’re not hearing that perspective. Russians who feel that he got his just desserts. Or as in the case of most Russians: Just don’t care.

 

[Tumbo II]

Btw: Did anyone see the video of Navalny’s funeral getting trolled?

There’s like 1000 or 2000 Russian shitlibs all lined up in a long queue, and some guy drives by slowly blasting music out of the open window on the passenger side.

What song was he playing? “I Need A Man Like Putin” a recent Russian pop song.

That's almost as awesome as claiming he died by a single punch to the heart but don't worry guys I'm sure his wife is going to take on Putler and Win!

 

[Myrtle the Turtle]

Navalny is astroturfed to hell in western media. I saved a quote from reddit many moons ago about him that sums up the movement:

"Compared to the popularity of Boris Yeltsin before his presidency, Navalny is like one of those direct-to-video sequels to major Disney animations."

My understanding is that people know him, but don't like him or would not support him. The progressive youth like him, which to me, equates to art students and faggot wanna-be student government politicians you would see in an American high school. Almost like an AOC or a less likable Bernie Sanders.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

With what? Ukraine's pre-invasion equipment stocks have been depleted. The donated NATO equipment has been depleted, and all Ukraine got with that was a single village and a couple fields; and that was before the Russians knew how to respond to that equipment effectively.

I'd be less worried about equipment than manpower. Even if the West manages to pull one last Hurrah outta the attic, which I do thing is possible if not particularly likely, the hands to actually carry those weapons into combat are seemingly lacking. They're already down to chasing individual dodgers with recruitment officers just to make seemingly bare minimum replacement level troop flows, much less raising the brigades required to actually make any offensive. That manpower shortage is the only reason I think they'd be hesitant about making another major push.

It was time to trade land for lives, yesterday. Now it is time to call for peace and accept territorial losses.

In their current position and strength, this isn't an option for Ukraine. With their forces and allies depleted to such a degree, there's no real reason for Putin to not go for gold and ensure the buffer is his. Even if they negotiate a deal that makes Ukraine independent still, it'll be 100% under a controlled and fixed government, and Russia will do what NATO wanted to do to them, which is round up the entire government, put them through a show court, and hang them all as "War Criminals" to make a point. Russia has no real reason to accept anything less - Odds are their internal calculus is telling them that it'd be preferable to take the casualties to guarantee they secure Ukraine to their own ends, over trying to compromise and ensuring another bloodier war in the next few years. They've never been super casualty adverse, and now that they've gone down this road, its unlikely they'll stop.

Maybe that'll just justify Ukraine feeling that they 'Have' to force a counter offensive regardless of capability, which the command structure reshuffling supports. If they can't change Russia's calculus on the war, or the worlds belief that they can win it at all, then its already over for them. Maybe Zelensky is losing it, hoping for a movie moment "Heroic sacrifice to win the day" bullshit where they go to the last Hohol but he manages to do the movie thing and win such a decisive victory, the world comes to their aid finally or some shit.

 

[Fapcop]

Good news!

https://southfront.press/russian-aerospace-forces-received-new-a-50u-early-warning-control-aircraft/

Better take good care of this one guys!

 

[Strix454]

Interesting about the commanders being switched out for more loyal ones. That surely can’t end bad in any way.

It was inevitable in a backwards corrupt army like Ukraine. Replacing the guy at the top means alot of jobs down the line are going to shift. Often changes like this can end up destablizing an army for a year or more. Every guy replaced down the line is going to replace guys under him with "his" guys. There is also alot of inertia among officers who know they are going to be inevitably removed or put in different jobs.

What I've seen from other sources is roughly:

1) The Ukrainians have poured a bunch of reserves into the line west of avdiivka. They are also supposedly expending artillery at greater than usual levels in the area now. The hills are relatively strong defensive position. Berdychi is the key area because there is no elevation advantage for Ukraine there. Taking it and pushing beyond will flank the Ukrainian defenders of the hills.

2) There were a bunch of reserves pushed into Robotyne not too long ago to save it. Alot of units with new armored equipment.

Everywhere else, the Ukrainians are just holding on as best they can and slowly losing ground in most places.

They have used reserves to plug two holes in the line now. The question going forward though is where the next hole will appear and how much they have left to throw into them.

 

[Fapcop]

They have used reserves to plug two holes in the line now. The question going forward though is where the next hole will appear and how much they have left to throw into them.

Good question indeed!



Actually a good way to figure out casualties.
Send some locals to see how much/fast they’re growing.

The governor of Odessa recently talked about their problems with Russian sympathizers.

 

[Susanna]

hang them all as "War Criminals" to make a point

Except in this case it's actually justified, because while it may not be a war crime per se, throwing so many men's lives away literally just because some anglo worm tells you to is certainly a crime against humanity.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

don't worry guys I'm sure his wife is going to take on Putler and Win!

She's certainly "taking on" Russian men, but in London and they all have fat bank accounts.

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

Is there any evidence that Russia lost 16,000 men in Avdiivka? Western analysts have been citing this number over and over again.

No. 16,000 dead in 2-4 weeks would be enormous and almost impossible to hide.

16,000 total casualties in a few MONTHS or even years is far more believable.

None. Even Mediazona doesn't support this allegation. (They were consistent in showing only like 100ish deaths per week since January)

But with statistics there's all sort of fun games you can play to make it "technically" true. Did Russia take 16k casualties in taking Avdiivka over that lightning two weeks blitz? Lol probably not. Did they suffer a total of 16k over the two years they invested in it? Doubtful either; Russian deaths (official) top out at what, 20k, and that's with Bakhmut. Here's the fun one, is it possible it's 16k since 2014? 100%, DPR had taken a lot of casualties between the start of the unofficial civil war and even during the SMO, being generally less trained and less well equipped.

Isn't statistics fun?

Agreed.

We'll all know in a few decades

 

[Drag-on Knight 91873]

Yea, this is getting rough. While I doubt social media is great reflection of morale at the front (You're not gonna post much "Its ok I guess, Igor got shot but it happens" content with life style shit) it does track that there'd be poor morale alongside consistent defeats and failures to advance in the wider front.

Wonder if Ukraine is gonna push hard again with a counterattack this year - They need the wins, both globally and for local morale, but I wonder if the manpower on the ground even has the courage to do so under such seemingly bleak conditions. Its one thing to advance at the enemy thinking you can push them back [like last time], its another to try and convince your men to do so when they've spent the last few months leaving their dead behind, retreating from shallow foxhole to shallow foxhole, and seemingly not receiving enough replacments, much less getting reliably rotated off the front. Soldiers know their lot is shit, but they're still going to have limits on what they'll do effectively. A demoralized attack force just stops at the first stiff resistance it encounters, and flounders on that line.

I get the feeling that they have to try, even if its doomed to fail - Might be the "loss" outcome is just hoping to hurt and delay Russia enough to push through the next wave of conscripts to fill the line behind them.

It depends on whether they can hold the positions they have and make their goal retaking Adeevka or Bahkmut back. As hard as it is, it's a more achievable goal than cutting through four lines of Russian defense to get to the sea during their Summer Counteroffensive. It's possible the Ukrainians under their new commander can meat grind their way forward given the losses the Russians are taking now. That I have to use speculative words does mean I don't have much faith they can do these things, but it can happen at great cost.

 

[Seedling]

She's certainly "taking on" Russian men, but in London and they all have fat bank accounts.

Knowing she spent her husbands funeral sucking western oligarch dick several countries away was very funny.
No honor among rats

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Polish farmers at the border crossing with Ukraine broke the windows of cars that were purchased by Ukrainian volunteers for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. link

Poland tired of the hohol bullshit.