Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

So Chernigov it may be.
Maybe, but now Ukraine's think tanks will stumble upon this while trawling the internet for brilliant tactical strategies and will be prepared for this.

Though it does seem an easy way to get to Kiev directly. How likely will Ukraine continue to resist if that city was captured, or do they not have fallback plans for that?
 
Maybe, but now Ukraine's think tanks will stumble upon this while trawling the internet for brilliant tactical strategies and will be prepared for this.

Though it does seem an easy way to get to Kiev directly. How likely will Ukraine continue to resist if that city was captured, or do they not have fallback plans for that?
Ukraine's entire war plan is to not look like a completely lost cause so the gibs don't disappear. To try my hand at being a retarded armchair general, Z man will throw every last body he can club on the head and stick in a van at preventing its loss. I assume it'll turn into another one of those battles where Russia flattens an area, captures it. Then withdraw when the next wave of brave heros charge in to retake it. Rinse and repeat. Nafo niggers will piss and shit themselves about how Ukraine recaptured 2 kilometers from the orcs. All while Russia slowly and methodically pushes the rest of the skeleton crewed line.
 
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I hate that feeling of we captured this and that place in Ukraine so many times announcements but when zooming out you feel like not enough progress is made on map.
 
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I hate that feeling of we captured this and that place in Ukraine so many times announcements but when zooming out you feel like not enough progress is made on map.
This is basically how war works: one side slow chipping away at the other, sometimes going the other way. At this point it’s definitively moving in one direction. Even though Russia will collapse any day now and Putler will be overthrown by deebly goncerned citizens who want nothing more than gay marriage, if Russia is definitively pushing west of the Dnieper river, then shit will get very real for this war.
 
I remember when we were told Russia had run out of missiles, artillery and small arms ammunition, it's entire modern tank force, had almost burned through its entire old Soviet stockpile, only had T-55's left, didn't have any recruits aside from prisoners and conscipted pensioners with chronic back problems, were losing irreplaceable attack choppers everyday and had an airforce only on paper. Amazing that Ukraine is still managing to destroy a dozen invisible SU-34's every other week. Truly astounding.

In all seriousness, the insane propaganda about Russia being useless at fighting plus not having any equipment has completely backfired. How can Russia be both an existential threat to Europe & Democracy™ and on the verge of complete collapse for 2 years? Even Ukraine supporting boomers are questioning how the fuck Russia are constantly making progress now.
 
Maybe, but now Ukraine's think tanks will stumble upon this while trawling the internet for brilliant tactical strategies and will be prepared for this.
I hope there's no serious notion in your mind that Ukie leadership or anyone directly involved in this get insights from this thread. You're probably joking but...

Though it does seem an easy way to get to Kiev directly. How likely will Ukraine continue to resist if that city was captured, or do they not have fallback plans for that?
I wouldn't say easy. Chernigov is heavily defended and due to its location is much more easily kept resupplied than previous cities like Bakhmut and Avdiivka. That's not to disagree with @Fapcop that a push towards it could happen. And if nothing else if it were credibly threatened it becomes an instant magnet for soldiers and material that otherwise could go to reinforce the other fronts as they say. But it's not some sneaky quick "win" button. It also means more of a front right on Russia's borders which might not be wanted. Remember, this whole SMO as far as Russia has stated was originally to secure its borders and independence for the breakaway oblasts. Russia doesn't need land, it needs security. And there's little prospect of keeping Chernigov as part of any negotiated peace which I still believe Russia wants.

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I hate that feeling of we captured this and that place in Ukraine so many times announcements but when zooming out you feel like not enough progress is made on map.
Yeah, I get that too. I watch Defence Politics Asia and he'll talk about major changes and Russians on the move and then you draw out and it looks like just a little fraying around the edges. But I think that feeling is in large part because we can't see the most valuable metrics for determining how the war is going - casualties and equipment. Ukie forces aren't evenly spread across Ukraine they move to the front, of course. Who knows how much damage is done to Ukraine's capability. Without knowing that sort of information you can't tell who is winning from territorial changes - there's such a thing as a Pyrrhic Victory and a change in territory on a map could come at a catastrophic cost. I know you get that, I'm just saying because I get the same reaction too and then I remind myself of this. We're starved of some of the most vital information in this war.
This is basically how war works: one side slow chipping away at the other, sometimes going the other way. At this point it’s definitively moving in one direction. Even though Russia will collapse any day now and Putler will be overthrown by deebly goncerned citizens who want nothing more than gay marriage, if Russia is definitively pushing west of the Dnieper river, then shit will get very real for this war.
Chernigov isn't West of the Dneiper fwiw. There is a LOT of tough territory just to get to the Dneiper and that's not happening any time soon barring a catastrophic collapse in Ukranian morale or capability. I honestly don't think Russia wants to occupy West of the Dneiper with the exception that given Ukraine's refusal to negotiate leading to this war perpetuating so far, they may now see Odessa as a stretch goal. But it's not a war for land or for resources. Russia has both in abundance. What Russia needs is secure borders and readmittance into trade with the anglosphere. Occupying West of the Dnieper is probably even a hindrance to their security, not worth it.

Maybe they've changed their goals, maybe I've always misread it. But I don't think occupation of all Ukraine was Russia's objective. Like with the initial abortive lightning strike on Kiev, they wanted to make a quick and overwhelming demonstration of force which a rational Ukraine would see and then negotiate. But because of Boris Johnson's little chat with Zelensky and that Ukie leadership is actually serving the West's interests rather than its peoples, Kiev is de facto not rational.

I hope Russia doesn't lose sight of its actual goals, as war tends to make one. What I hope for in all this horror is for a lasting peace based along more natural lines - Russians in Russia, some more natural borders that make for security, settled security agreement and end to sanctions. Western leadership is the biggest barrier to that, unfortunately.
 
Are you including Taiwan in all the above?
No. The Taiwanese were all the cleverest and most Westernised ones, who managed to GTFO when the Communists were obviously going to win.
In Odessa, a citizen is tired of air raids ruining his sleep, and sabotaged the local siren:

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Says a lot about the (Russian majority speaking) population of Odessa. They know that air attacks are aimed at military and infrastructure targets, and that they have little to fear unless they live right next to one.


Also the “so what’s next?”

What do you mean lil’ NAFO nigga?! You don’t have a plan? You didn’t pay attention?!

What a cluster fuck. A bunch of rando foreign faggots and ONE Ukrainian who sorta speaks English, and there’s seemingly no real plan except for chilling in an evacuated house and wait for the Russian response.

If these (thankfully now dead) faggots had half a brain, they’d realize how they’re being led like lamb to slaughter. To generate some headlines for the corrupt leadership in Kyyyiiiiyyv.
I hope he paid cash for those cartridges. I can just imagine Jewlensky sending the Ukestapo to hunt down every credit card purchaser in the last 12 months.
 
Which is mostly a farce and election bait for a bunch of boomers anyway. The whole draft apparatus was dismantled and there isn't even enough room to house all the prospective draftees. A lot of the old barracks, especially those built before WW2 have been sold and converted into luxury housing for starters.
The simple reality is that they wanted a volunteer, quasi-mercenary force who'd act as second rate auxiliaries for 'Murican adventures in various sandboxes and they got it. And now their lords and masters have pretensions about repeating Barbarossa and they're wholly unprepared.
Drafts don't work because nobody wants to get shot for a war they have no stake in.
 
If they do this, it'll be genuinely interesting. Not in a "Thots and egirls BTFO" way but actually seeing what large scale use of women in direct combat roles looks like in peer level warfare. Its been decades since we've seen female-heavy units used in more open combat, as opposed to the modern Israeli data which is just counter insurgency operations with relatively well trained fighters. I have a feeling a lot of military intelligence groups will be watching that very closely, as the viability of female conscription has always been in doubt, and there's a lot of questions around how much extra training if any is required to overcome the different physical limits and psychological elements of the fairer sex.

Its unfortunate that we'll be learning this off the back of a lot of human death and suffering, but it may at least provide justification to not do that shit in the future. And assuming they stick closely to Israeli style practices, I'm pretty sure Israel generally considers being married to be a valid service exemption. So we may still get that "Thots and egirls BTFO" interest as well when the draft becomes true spinster hell.
 
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