Hurricane Milton

[mindlessobserver]

The waffle houses are still open in Tampa atm, so it isn't officially happening yet.

 

[Vecr]

I don't know about the storm surge dynamics, but I wouldn't chance the bad-case windspeeds in Tampa. It's not unlikely to be quite bad.

 

[Dagoth AMOGUS]

There’s two types of Floridian homes. Ones meant to withstand almost anything, and ones that you buy and build cheaply because you know it will just get wrecked. But you put down money ahead for storm damage and other coverage and just rebuild.

They have lived there for like, almost 200 years. They’ll be fine.

 

[Stoneheart]

White boomers who retired in Sarasota/Bradenton or go there for vacation might be hit by a category 5 and be dead.

Lets hope it doesnt hit Yeehaw Junction. thats a much to cool name to become ocean

 

[mindlessobserver]

I don't know about the storm surge dynamics, but I wouldn't chance the bad-case windspeeds in Tampa. It's not unlikely to be quite bad.

Storm surge is always worse then wind.

 

[Hanamarle Bougainvillea]

Milton has become a hurricane. While still compact, it seems to be intensifying at a greater speed than previously forecast, now having a peak windspeed of ~130 MPH when it crashes into west or south-central Florida.

 

[Anonitolia]

peak windspeed of ~130 MPH

Shit, isn't that Category 4 level?

 

[Quijibo69]

I have to go to work tomorrow and It's around Tampa, my feels!

 

[Sithis]

View attachment 6493490

Milton has become a hurricane. While still compact, it seems to be intensifying at a greater speed than previously forecast, now having a peak windspeed of ~130 MPH when it crashes into west or south-central Florida.

If it keeps that track the storm surge in Pinellas is going to be fucking ungodly. That track has the upper right side of the hurricane which always seems to have more wind and rain packed into it hitting the Tampa Bay dead center which means Pinellas will be getting storm surge from literally all sides.
DeSantis does seem to have a good grip on how to run disaster response though, it looks like it is to Florida's fortune that he isn't on a campaign trail currently and can be at hand for the organization.

 

[thhrang]

 

[REGENDarySumanai]

There’s two types of Floridian homes. Ones meant to withstand almost anything, and ones that you buy and build cheaply because you know it will just get wrecked. But you put down money ahead for storm damage and other coverage and just rebuild.

They have lived there for like, almost 200 years. They’ll be fine.

My uncle has the former. Then again, he specifically had it built that way.

 

[MadStan]

Milton is hitting some prime real estate and will cross Florida rather than ride up beside it. This is going to be an expensive hurricane. Even at cat 2-3.

 

[Fatniggo1488]

Milton is hitting some prime real estate and will cross Florida rather than ride up beside it. This is going to be an expensive hurricane. Even at cat 2-3.

It's going to fuck up Orlando and not do much else but that will be the worst thing ever because Orlando is nigger town.

 

[MadStan]

It's going to fuck up Orlando and not do much else but that will be the worst thing ever because Orlando is nigger town.

And sometimes God listens

 

[Disaffected Coyote]

This clip is from Ryan Hall talking about the wind shear that is likely going to effect Milton before landfall.

Full Video

 

[Vecr]

This clip is from Ryan Hall talking about the wind shear that is likely going to effect Milton before landfall.

View attachment 6494205
Full Video

Yeah, he has good advice. Don't assume it'll go literally on one of the models, the weather forecasters have limited computer power, they quite often don't end up having a model that exactly matches what happens. For your preparations you should assume/pretend it's bigger than it is in the models and has higher wind speeds. Enlarge it on a map until there's no gaps between the category 3+ sections when you overlay the models.

 

[DJ McHamfist]

Wait wait wait guys.... more importantly. Have we sent enough money to Ukraine.

With the completely insulting response in NC, lets hope FL doesn't have to suffer the ignominy of being written off by the feds and the insult of a $750 payoff. I'm praying for you my FL bros

 

[CFC-12]

Sustained winds now up to 85mph, and wind gusts are edging into Cat 2 territory. Seems like they're predicting landfall roughly midday on Wednesday.

Spoiler: NHC Advisory 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 93.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions
of Florida early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters near latitude 22.5
North, longitude 93.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east near
7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected tonight. An
eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday,
followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of
Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly during the next
couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as
Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

I don't know about the storm surge dynamics, but I wouldn't chance the bad-case windspeeds in Tampa. It's not unlikely to be quite bad.

The highest point in Tampa is something like 40 feet above sea level. Even moderate storm surge could fuck up a whole lot of the city. This has the potential to be pretty goddamn bad.

 

[Jump]

Hurricane heading for Florida?

Here comes Milton, The Death Dealer.

 

[Nigger Cobson]

They have lived there for like, almost 200 years. They’ll be fine.

A lot, perhaps even the majority, of Florida's inhabitants are relatively recent immigrants, whether they came from Yankeeland, Latin America, or other parts of the world. I'm not saying that most Floridians aren't prepared for hurricanes, but for the Desantis immigrants who came because Florida is some "land of freedom", this may be their first rodeo.