Hurricane Milton

Smyrna said:
This forecast point is literally on the doorstep of St. Petersburg. Less than 4 miles west of Pass-a-Grille Beach. It will move with later forecasts, but if Milton is anywhere near that strength in that location he will become unquestionably the most destructive hurricane in history because of the surge.
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This is gonna be a surge heavy storm, I feel. Based on the eyewall and the general makeup of the storm so far I think the rain isn't gonna be too bad, it's the fact that the area has been getting so much rain already that there's nowhere for it to go besides pooling up.

I'm still mixed on the winds situation. I don't know if it will hold as high as it will. I think there's a good chance it may.

But what interests me is that is a very compact storm. Usually at the Cat 4 to 5 stage they're pretty large storms that will grab nearby systems. This one is staying on the smaller side which is why I think it'll be a nasty surge event even without the bay being a fucking funnel.
 
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I'm watching the weather channel and the meteorologist looks likes he's about to sperg out.

He says that the wind shear to the North of Milton is far enough away right now not to hurt it. What is happening though is that the cooler out flow air from Milton is being moved away by the shear. What this is essentially doing is helping Milton "breathe".

He's also really worried about some of the models that show a landfall North of Tampa, that this may be the worst case scenario that Tampa has always worried about.
 
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Disaffected Coyote said:
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933 mb is really low and this thing has a ways to go before it impacts with the wind shear. I don't know if anything will stop it from getting to the Dorian/Irma level.
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This is just bonkers, man. 155mph??? No way this storm isn't gonna hit Cat 5 status. I will say it still seems like a pretty compact storm as far as hurricanes go. Wonder if it'll turn out like Ryan Hall said, where it'll weaken but expand in size close to landfall. I don't know if that'd be a net good thing or a bad thing. It would be a thing nonetheless.

mindlessobserver said:
That is fucking nuts to go from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in 12 hours. I wonder if he can hold it together though. Storms that strengthen rapidly can also lose steam on approach.
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Seems likely, but at this point there's no way the west coast of Florida isn't going to be completely decimated by this. Remember, Katrina was down to Cat 3 status by the time it made landfall and still buttfucked New Orleans. Intensity isn't everything. Like someone else said earlier, if the storm weakens but gets wider it'll lead to higher storm surge along the coast.
 
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CFC-12 said:
This is just bonkers, man. 155mph??? No way this storm isn't gonna hit Cat 5 status. I will say it still seems like a pretty compact storm as far as hurricanes go. Wonder if it'll turn out like Ryan Hall said, where it'll weaken but expand in size close to landfall. I don't know if that'd be a net good thing or a bad thing. It would be a thing nonetheless.
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I think if it grows in size, but drops in wind speed on approach to the coast it is a net bad. While the direct area that's hit won't suffer as catastrophic wind damage, the storm surge will likely me worse. A larger wind field pushing more water into the coast, especially if Tamp takes the brunt of it would be terrible.
 
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It is completely true that a storm getting weaker does not diminish the surge immediately. Katrina is possibly the best example of this; she was indeed 'just' a category 3 at the second landfall but she still brought her category 5 surge with her (30+ feet in Gulfport and Biloxi).

Milton being a comparitively small storm will mean his surge won't be as bad as the absolute worst scenario (smaller storm = less water being moved = less water being pushed into the centre) but becoming this strong this early will mean more time for the higher pressures outside the storm to force water in and pile it up in the middle.
 
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I was wrong earlier - the Air Force recon went back for another pass through the eye, approaching from the SW. Flight-level winds of 180mph and an extrapolated minimum pressure of 924mbs were found. Waiting for the vortex message to confirm those numbers.
 
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1728316176468.png

Down to 924mb.
 
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Quijibo69 said:
I'm staying to ride this one out it looks like. I'm going to try to talk to someone to see if we can drive up north. I will update.
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Give yourself at least 35 miles away from the coast, more if applicable. Tbh I would go south instead, north is still dealing with Helene.

Shit, even Key Largo is a better option at this point instead of going north. Hotels down there are gonna be cheap cheap cheap because nobody thinks to ride out a northward storm in the Keys.
 
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He's a 5. Incredible strengthening over the past 8 hours or so.


Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1175 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES
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Honka Honka Burning Love said:
Are you saying that you think that they are controlling the weather and specifically targeting white people with Hurricanes?

What makes you think they are competent enough to not hit New Orleans and cause Katrina 2?
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i would barely classify Tampa as white anyway. the parts I've been to are nothing but moon crickets, spics, a few pajeets and fat white woman coal burners.
 
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