Hurricane Milton

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Yeah, i wonder why they haven't learned how to build buildings that can actually survive this. I mean, it only took a few earthquakes for the japs to get the memo and learn how to build earthquake resistant buildings, so, what's the holdup
Florida buildings are built to survive hurricanes. No insurer would allow otherwise. But you can't do much about a one story shop on the boardwalk that's getting hit with hurricane winds and storm surge.
 
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch north of the Savannah River to Edisto
Beach South Carolina has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watches for the Dry Tortugas, the Florida east coast
north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River, and
for the Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita
Beach have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch north of Edisto Beach has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Milton is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward
the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton
will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this
evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it
will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida
through Thursday. Milton is forecast to weaken over the western
Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). A WeatherFlow site located in Egmont Channel (XEGM)
recently reported a sustained wind speed of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a
wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h). A WeatherFlow site located on the
Sunshine Skyway Fishing Pier (XSKY) recently reported a sustained
wind speed of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100
km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter data is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft
Tampa Bay...6-9 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida this evening through Thursday morning and are
possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of
Florida and are forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach
the east coast this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia
and South Carolina coast on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong
tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of
central and southern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a
sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of
the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was
confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission,
where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane
reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with
the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb.
Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level
winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest
Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and
105 kt.

Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at
about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the
hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very
soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this
evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida
and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic.

Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major
hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this
evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent
of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the
northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to
southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are
likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south,
regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still
exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of
Florida given the size of the storm.

Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already
beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model
guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in
about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the
new NHC forecast.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the
surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise
rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the
backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as
the center makes landfall.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area.
Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are
expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of
the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and
early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an
interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves
across the central Florida Peninsula.

3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening
hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida
Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior
room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area.

4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 26.9N 83.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN
 
20k people wondering if the pier will make it. There was no water near the stairs about 1.5 hours ago.
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
457 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

FLC099-092115-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0091.000000T0000Z-241009T2115Z/
Palm Beach FL-
457 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...

At 457 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Loxahatchee Groves, or near Wellington, moving north at
30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wellington, Palm Beach Gardens, Royal Palm Beach, The Acreage, and
Loxahatchee Groves.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move
to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take
immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.

&&

LAT...LON 2666 8026 2667 8034 2684 8033 2683 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 192DEG 28KT 2670 8030

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

Culver
 
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IT's very expensive to hurricane-proof a building comapred toa earthquake building, and even then, nothing can withstand the surges from a hurricane 4-5, and the tornados that come with it damage even hurricane-proof shit so it becomes hurricane-vulnerable
Ever heard of a WW2 bunker? Or a flak tower? I bet those a pretty resistant.
Or just move to the midwest, or like nevada or the west coast or wherever.
Hell, im pretty sure properly made masonry can withstand hurricanse, maybe not category 4 and 5, but like, it's got a decent chance at anything below that right? Or, say, soviet style commieblocks.
 
Based on what I'm seeing, things really seem to be kicking it up a notch, I'm watching this guy livestream the whole thing, MikeSmallsJr on Kick, pretty interesting stuff.
 
But you can't do much about a one story shop on the boardwalk that's getting hit with hurricane winds and storm surge.
Actually you can:
1728507542542.png
1728507563958.png
That's a design for a hurricane and flood-resistant small building/house, but as others have bitched about in this very thread its not pretty so its better to get your mcmansion's siding fly to the other side of the state every year I guess.
 
Do you think we'll see any deaths on one of these hurricane livestreams? I hope not but I'm sure someone recording will or will capture something.

I watched someone almost get taken out at the tard beacon. She fell on her ass when a wave got her. I'm predicting someone tries standing on that short barrier and ends up slipping and getting taken out.
 
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