He won't be sober long enough to complete his probation, but he also probably won't see additional time over his guaranteed violations. Minnesota isn't exactly a hard on crime state and we only have to look to fellow lolcow BMJ to see that after beating his dad twice and pissing hot like 5(?) times in 6 months, he's only getting rehab. The 5th time he pissed hot was after getting sentenced to drug classes for 6 months after pissing hot the 4th time. He misinterpreted the classes as having to attend rehab for 6 months and decided to just smoke crack until he had to go to intake. What were they gonna do, send him to rehab twice? Oh yeah, he's also been kicked out of rehab during that period as well.
Nick will piss hot or miss PO appointments numerous times before anything substantial happens to him and I suspect his parents will wrangle him enough that his violations aren't severe or close enough together to provoke much of a response. They are enablers who must protect their coke addict son at any cost, including their grandchildren.