2025 Israel vs Iran War

Iranian sources claim: An Israeli UAV was shot down in the Dezful region in southern Iran (Khuzestan Province):
That looks exactly like the Iranian drones I've seen on multiple videos being shot down through Israeli AH-64 gun cameras
It looks like an Arash 2 (3?). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arash_(drone). I don't think Israel uses that retarded body profile.
Edit: The fin profile is similar, but not obviously identical. I think it was simply damaged, but "IDK".
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They were there first, Shlomo.
I mean, depending on who you are asking. That being said, since when does the term "Palestinian diaspora" imply favoritism to Israel? Are you aware of what the word "diaspora" means?
what exactly is there to stop them now?
International pressure. That's basically the only thing that can realistically stop Israel. Surprisingly, Saudi Arabia came out against the strikes against Iran, which is pretty shocking. Trump could support or lambast Israel depending on what side of the bed he woke up on today, so that's a coin flip. The EU likely will express deeb gonzern)))), and Russia will screech because that's what they do. As for actual, kinetic actions? The only one remotely equipped to do anything would be the Saudis, and despite the Saudis condemning the strike, they aren't remotely doing to volunteer to get their expensive American equipment turned into scrap (and piss off the Americans selling them the equipment, by extension). Turkey remains aloof in Arab affairs so long as nobody interferes in their genocide against the Kurds, so they're not going to do anything. It really comes down to international pressure.
NO ONE wants to the deal with the headache left behind.
You aren't wrong, but nobody wants to deal with a nuclear Iran, either. A nuclear Iran is a genuinely massive headache, because they would have the ability to choke the Hormuz while being able to threaten nuclear retaliation on anyone that tries to end the blockade, not to mention the massive headache in knock on effects it would cause. Overnight the Saudis and probably the UAE would go nuclear. Both nations have the money and the capabilities to go nuclear, they don't because they don't want to alienate themselves and because maintaining an nuclear program is expensive as shit, but make no mistake, they absolutely can, and if Iran became a nuclear state they wouldn't be far behind, likely by the end of the decade.
Iran isn't a shit stain like Iraq or Syria.
Debatable, but I get what you mean. Even Iraq and Syria are really interesting cases, and if you go back to 1948 and follow their entire modern history, there's a lot that gets glossed over as "lmao stinky Arabs," but I digress. Yes, Persian culture is inherently different from Arabian culture, I agree.
Iran collapsing is Syria Civil War x 50
Not really. There's a lot of cultural and political reasons that would prevent that. Syria and Iraq have always struggled with factionalism and sectarianism, primarily because both nations are lines-on-a-map artificial. There is no "Iraqi" or "Syrian" identity, which is why Pan-Arabism was such a big deal in the 50s and 60s, where we saw the rise (and rapid collapse) of the UAR, and later the rise of Ba'athism. In Syria and Iraq, there has to be either a big brain political movement to unite people or someone with enough military force and a cult of personality to keep it together by sheer force of will and repression, otherwise people will naturally align with their sects which have existed far longer than the idea of "Syria" or "Iraq" has. In Syria, that takes the shape primarily as ethno-religious or ethnic groups like the Kurds, Druze, Alawites, Assyrians, Twelvers, Ismailis... In Iraq, this is primarily sectarian, with the majority of the fighting being between the Shia majority and the Sunni minority, with the Kurds being caught in the middle seeking autonomy or independence, depending on the time period. The sectarian issues in Iraq also overlap with class issues. While Shiites make up a majority of the population (something around sixty percent iirc), before the US invasion in 2003, the country was ran by Sunnis for most of Iraq's history, with Shiites being primarily poorer farmers and laborers in the south, with the major cities of Baghdad and Mosul being primarily Sunni (until 2003). Saddam heavily favored Sunnis, before that was his cousin Bakr and a bit before that was Qasim, who's father was Sunni and mother Shia, and he tried (and mostly failed) to balance sectarian tensions, but props for trying, and before him was Abd al-Ilah, who was the regent for the king (and therefore held a significant amount of authority), who was a Sunni which heavily favored Sunnis.

All of this to say that in both Iraq and Syria, there's competing identities that people tend to put far above "Syrian" or "Iraqi." This is one of the primary reasons that these countries are so unstable. Iran, on the other hand, is significantly more homogeneous, culturally, religiously, and ethnically. Iran has a past, and people identify with "Iranian" or "Persian." They are real identities. The only groups that really don't buy into that identity these days are the Kurds and the Azeris living in the north. I find it significantly less likely to see a multipolar shit fest like we saw in Syria in the event of Iran collapsing.
 
It looks like an Arash 2 (3?). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arash_(drone). I don't think Israel uses that retarded body profile.
Edit: The fin profile is similar, but not obviously identical. I think it was simply damaged, but "IDK".
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Yeah I thought it was a Shahed because the delta wing on the Shahed goes the full length of the fuselage but looking closer at the picture there's damage on the front end like maybe the rest of the nose was torn off. It doesn't exactly fit what a standard 136 or Arash looks like, could be a variant of the Arash with a bigger delta wing or a variant of the 136 with a tail fin
 
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Yeah, I thought that too.

Its still something, and the fact they made a big deal out of a Harop shootdown (which even Pakistan has downed Harops) really casts doubt they brought down a stealth fighter that can defend itself.
Genuinely kicking myself that I didnt save some of the most batshit "Iran has quantum superscience rayguns that can wipe out entire carrier groups so amerika must meekly submit to its will" tier joikings off I have encountered over the past five years.

Also I guess Azerbaijan is on the shitlist now
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Bibi pretty much treated Trump as irrelevant

Abusing your enemies' good faith attempts

So is Trump is Trump irrelevant, or do we believe the Israeli’s claiming Trump coordinated the whole thing to decapitate the Iranian government in an act of total boomer victory?

I’m getting real mixed messages here.
 
Genuinely kicking myself that I didnt save some of the most batshit "Iran has quantum superscience rayguns that can wipe out entire carrier groups so amerika must meekly submit to its will" tier joikings off I have encountered over the past five years.

Also I guess Azerbaijan is on the shitlist now
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Thinking it’s turning into a “escape the country for the current regime” moment, with a last ditch holdout by the hardliners; but I think most defenders will ditch their positions like Iraq did during the Persian Gulf War.
 
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Israel has temporarily shut down two of its three offshore gas fields—Karish and Leviathan—under orders from the Ministry of Energy, due to the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Despite the shutdown, the Energy Ministry has stated that Israel is prepared to maintain the country's energy supply through alternative sources, including coal and diesel. Energy Minister Eli Cohen is expected to declare a state of emergency in the gas sector, which would authorize him to allocate gas to consumers in the event of a prolonged shortage.

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I'm guessing the reasoning is that the regime needs some easy symbolic victory to feed their supporters and allow for some manner of exit that does not resemble a gang raped prisoner crawling out the showers, and so are trying the old "give the US plenty of forewarning and make sure we don't hit anything important when we scatter cheap rockets around their base" technique, either after directly contacting US glowies to state these intentions or just hoping the US cottons on and does not hit back hard.

Question is, given the indications that the US may well be joining in on the fuck train, will Iran still carry it out or will they try to avoid giving the US the excuse it needs?
 
What did the US even do?
Iran and Israel are angry neighbours, so Iran has decided to shoot Israels pet. Very sad.

But being real, it's probably because the Israelis are launching strikes from them, or the US is shooting down Iranian weapons from them. Or the Iranians are tard flailing, or trying to force a negotiation? Who knows why muzzies do the stupid shit they do?
 
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Pro-tip: You can be entirely critical of Israel and the US special relationship with Israel and still want to see them clobber uppity jihadis


Have you ever met the average American leftist?
What part of "blowing up brown people with impunity" do you think would make it more appealing to them?
Iranians are LITERALLY Caucasians though
 
Allow israeli air assets to be staged on their bases, provide air refueling, fund and arm Israel's military, and intercept Iran's counter attacks. They're completely legitimate targets if Iran actually wanted to hit them.
No Israeli assets have been staged from US bases. No US planes have provided aerial refueling. In the former the Arab countries those bases are in would never allow it, it'd cause a huge diplomatic crisis. US tanker planes haven't been circling around over north-central Iraq which is where the refuelings take place. Funding and arming a belligerent has always been a legal activity for neutrals and not a casus belli. Intercepting Iran's counterattacks would be a legitimate reason for Iran to attack US military though that's actively taking part
 
Also I guess Azerbaijan is on the shitlist now
Israel maintains strong economic, diplomatic, and military relations with Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan has irredentist ambitions with northwestern portions of Iran. It would not be surprising at all if Azerbaijan served as a staging ground for some of the Israeli offensive plans.
trying the old "give the US plenty of forewarning and make sure we don't hit anything important when we scatter cheap rockets around their base" technique, either after directly contacting US glowies to state these intentions or just hoping the US cottons on and does not hit back hard.
When this has happened in the past, it was before Iran's military capacity had been so diminished and before there was any potential that even a limited counter-attack could deal significant damage to Iran. I wouldn't be surprised if America does a limited but super-effective response if Iran does something. Dropping some extremely effective bombs on a few targets that Israel couldn't/hasn't reached wouldn't be a big deal in a normal situation, but would be extremely devastating at the moment. And given the ongoing bombing by Israel, there could be a legitimate explanation of "You attacked us, so we did a counter-strike. Let that be the end of it."
 
Also I guess Azerbaijan is on the shitlist now
It would have been a looong time ago if online "leftists" that subscribe to these accounts had been reading anything else.

If Iran wasn't a paper tiger, it would have supported Armenia against Azerbaijan. But it was, so Armenia lost and a Zanzegur Corridor plans are going to reduce Iran's role in the region.
 
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