Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

Myrtle the Turtle said:
The US was unprepared with little to no bunkers for personal against a country that was known for drones and ballistic missiles. He points out the US mil was/is rushing for cheap prefab bunkers to protect its people now. Why wasn't this done before?
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This one isn't borne out by actual events, and it's probably based on this fluff article by Task and Purpose, which is like the People or US Magazine of the MIC. If the lack of bunkers were an issue, we'd have had a LOT more dead Americans, given all the attacks. Having been on some of those bases during my active duty time, the contention that there weren't any bunkers is absolutely laughable. They're all over the fucking place and were even used during OIF in some instances. The real question is how hardened up they were, and whether the alarm systems were quick enough to allow people enough time to take cover before getting hit. The prefab bunkers were likely to prep for any personnel surges that might happen, not because there weren't sufficient bunkers available for the people already on station.

Myrtle the Turtle said:
Operation Spiderweb proved that if you leave expensive assets exposed, even if deep inside a country, they are highly vulnerable to FPV drone attacks. Every airbase in the US needs to have hardened shelters.
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This is a legit issue in modern warfare, although it doesn't address to what degree those shelters need to be hardened. We've been using fabric-type hangars in the desert for a long time, and those days are clearly done, but building hardened hangars raises the question of whether you make them like the ones at Ali Al Salem that we bunker-busted the Iraqis on during Desert Storm, or something less thick but still more resilient to FPVs.

Myrtle the Turtle said:
Ukraine and Russia have proven that static targets are easier to hit than ones on the move. Iran can buy satellite images from China and get daily, in some cases, hourly updates and see if US bases have moved THAAD, radars, KC tankers and other important assets. Why was this not considered?
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Not relocating some assets like the THAAD radars is a legit criticism. Bear in mind that comm and radar assets are often in fixed locations and relocating them simply wasn't an option, but in that case you obviously have to have those in hardened facilities. A direct hit makes even that irrelevant, although there's ways to mitigate that somewhat through redundancy and decoys. The radar issue points more to a combination in the early days of the conflict of trying to get the air defenses locked in, and the absolute saturation that took place by Iran where the defenses simply couldn't hit everything that was sent.

Not having more decoys in place, if that was actually the case, was an absolute foul. That's probably due to complacency because we've been on some of these bases for 25 years or more, and until now they never came under attack, especially not to the degree that we saw up to the ceasefire.

Myrtle the Turtle said:
Both RU and UKR shuffle their assets around so planes, radars and missiles sites are not in one spot for too long. Even moving things around from one of the base to another can have a big impact, especially from Iranian missiles that lack complex terminal guidance.
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This comparison doesn't apply for a few notable reasons. Despite a few lucky hits like the E-3, the vast majority of our losses have been MQ-9s that were shot down, not aircraft on the ground. There's also the fact that anywhere we put down aircraft in the Middle East has to be approved by the host nation, which is easier said than done in some of these places, particularly attack aircraft. The fact we haven't lost more planes to missile and drone strikes on the ground speaks to how effective the suppression of Iran's launch capabilities were before the ceasefire.

Lastly, the video was done by a Britbong who can't help but compare this to the war in Ukraine, but that's an apples and oranges comparison right now because the US already has air superiority, which isn't the case with the Russia-Ukraine conflict where neither has it. That's also why the ACE criticism he tries out doesn't apply, either, because Ukraine doesn't have the hurdle of base access permissions that the US has to deal with in the Middle East.

I think the main lesson right now is that, if the US has to work out of fixed base locations in order to maintain air superiority, it has to do a lot more work on making sure large opening week salvos can be more effectively intercepted, and build up better defense in depth on counter drone operations for the duration of any conflict that takes place.
 
Kalergi said:
it doesn't address to what degree those shelters need to be hardened.
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It needs to be mobile enough that you can move it if you have (Army Corp of Engineers) to but hardy enough against an FPV or Shahed. Prefab concrete and steel could work. The energy beam weapons the US is developing and C-RAM seem to be more economic alternatives to combat Shaheds, but the FPV threat is real. On the Iranian side you have the inverse issue where their missile bases are protected in mountains against most bombs but the entrances are vulnerable and if those collapse or are blocked, your assets are useless.
Kalergi said:
Bear in mind that comm and radar assets are often in fixed locations and relocating them simply wasn't an option
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Theres no excuse for the THAAD radar since its literally on wheels, granted it needs some other support equipment, but its more mobile than say, Irans Qadir and US fixed position early warning radar. You can also build decoys for those fixed position radars too. Its not that hard to put up some steel scaffolding that looks like them.
Kalergi said:
Not having more decoys in place, if that was actually the case, was an absolute foul. That's probably due to complacency because we've been on some of these bases for 25 years or more, and until now they never came under attack, especially not to the degree that we saw up to the ceasefire.
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Complacency. I don't even think the US even invests in high-detailed decoys anymore. We're past the point of inflatables. Some of the decoys from Russia-Ukraine are complex with moving parts, lights and agility designed to look like the real thing from an FPV drone camera. The US counts on complete airspace denial with our air defense and air superiority. While thats good, you can no longer count on it and you need to be prepared for when that fails.
Kalergi said:
This comparison doesn't apply for a few notable reasons. Despite a few lucky hits like the E-3, the vast majority of our losses have been MQ-9s that were shot down, not aircraft on the ground.
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True, but this is Iran, we need to be prepared for the next conflict. Defense is an ever evolving pursuit. Having the ability to shuffle your planes around in different hangers at different bases like a shell game makes it harder for your enemy to see buildups, what you have, how much you have and where its at. Assume theres a Chinese or Russian satellite that can take a photo/day of your bases.
 
JayseeDenton said:
Various chinese companies have been buying farmland in the US because farming shit in china is impossible and because many rich chinks are desperate to leave china because they don't let you actually own things there.

Because all chinese investment firms are CCP linked this has led to a lot of reasonable concern. Overall it's a tiny % of not just US farmland but even foreign owned US farm land ( i think china owns like 2% of foreign owned US land but i can't remember off my head) but some of it was near military bases so it has caused people to speculate.

I imagine that land is watched like a hawk though. It's one of those things that is weird but not as weird as a lot of people make it out to be. Frankly no foreigners should be allowed to own US land at all.
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The thing is if war were declared we could just seize it, the stock piles and the machinery. I don't think the Chinese are importing chinks to do the labor so we would just have a "change in ownership". If memory serves me correctly most of our foodstuffs still are domestic.
 
Hej22122 said:
The foreign owner and permanent resident thing to a lesser extent is probably to attract investment
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Correct, EB-5 Visas for economic investment gives you a $500k discount if you invest in rural areas, so instead of $1.3 million you only have to spend $800k, and the quickest and most economic viable way of doing in rural areas is by buying farmland and setting up a farm since it usually costs $500k to $1 million dollars to start a farm from stratch anyway.
 
mindlessobserver said:
Again reiterate my 50/50 assessment that the invasion of Irans maritime islands happens this weekend. With 75/25 for the weekend after next.
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I would agree. The next logical step is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and attack the fast-attack boats and drones. Trump is going to get dicked around by Iran until that happens. Thats the only leverage they have left.

The state of the US economy is more fragile than Trump would like to admit. We can't be restrained for attacks based on when the stock market is open or closed because of oil prices and the downstream effects spikes have. Thats weakness. The world is soon going to put pressure on the US to do something to fix it, they will not however, help open the Strait, so its our headache now like it or not.

In the unlikely event this drags with no open Strait after Memorial Day, we will most certainly be looking at a recession for the US that Trump won't be able to fix easily. Downstream effects are going to be harder to fix than if they were addressed upfront.

Then theres the issue of them flinging missiles at us and burning up our interceptors. Theres hand wringing about low interceptor stocks against SK or Taiwan, while I think most of these are panicicans, the concern exists and its better for us to be conservative with them now the first half of the conflict is finished.

Iran intends to hold the US hostage through the markets. They didn't count on us blocking the Strait, but it also means they will dig in and try and resist until the markets put enough pressure on Trump to give them what they want. Iran knows its an election year. The US needs to take that power away from them. Once the oil flows without issue, no one will care if it lasts as long as Afghanistan.
 
Myrtle the Turtle said:
Finally got a chance to watch this.

Perun points out two major weaknesses on the US front of the war with Iran, mainly drawing from lessons learned from Ukraine-Russia and what it means for future warfare.
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I do not always agree with everything Perun says or all the conclusions her draws, but he is at least well researched.

This was from a bit ago, so he really called the bunkers thing wrong; the NGs who got drone'd did have shelters to get to, they had just been given the go-ahead to leave them.

The reason for the buying of bunkers is because the US is wanting to upgrade protection, not beause none exists. The US wants rapid set up options because its wanted them for a while

There are wonkings about why this capability is wanted:
- It might be to give to gulf allies who most certainly have NOT been getting ready for this.
- The US is expecting a need to provide shelter for a lot more US personnel than are currently there. Before brown hands start going on about "boots on the ground", remember that the US military likes to have things ready before their needed. This could just be "we might want to put down ground troops to defend gulf allies, and want to make sure they won't end up like Russian meatwaves".
- in direct contrast to this "stop flipping out, bro", the fact the structures are prefab and will set up fast... this makes LESS sense for bases the US controls. The UAE is friendly territory, concrete and earth-work equipment can be obtained there, there is lots of building and construction going on incountry, there is no need to haul a prefab concrete bunker all the way from the US. The fact they can be set up in hours doesn't make sense then it will take days and very likely weeks, and possibly months, for them to actually be sourced, purchased, transported to US docks, loaded, and shipped to theater. It would be faster to build in-country if its stuff gulf bases.
So using this information, one could then logically think "Well, what situations WOULD the US want to throw up a fast pre-fab blastbunker for troops?" - it would need to be one where they have significant preptime, but little deployment time, and where sourcing building materials locally would not be an option.
And there is a brewing situation that fits the bill: Gulf Island Day.

or: tl;dr - everyone is watching flights, no one is watching navy support ships to see when a lot of concrete is arriving.because that's when to throw some dollas down on Polymarket.

Hej22122 said:
Perhaps it's kept around for some kind of counter-intelligence operation, I hope for the sake of the US that is
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Fred Fuckstone said:
Speaking from experience, a lot of those chinese farms just grow convenience crops like weed, they bought a shit ton of land and flew people out just to out hustle local farmers back when pot got legalized. It's not some massive triad conspiracy, a lot of unrelated people saw an emerging market and took their shot.
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Its very likely both.
It is also very likely a question of "who is jewing Chinking who" because very likely the business owners buying this farm are putting to the Chicom secret police
"Please ahrrauw me buy rand in USA, most benenificient Chicom Interrigence. You can use for spying on round eye. Please ahrrauw most humber servant to withdraw chinkbux for purchuse, ah so."
Getting a US visa out of the deal is yuge.

Also you must remember a lot of Chink spies don't come to the US with the purpose of spying, a lot of first gen immigrants are turned into spies without intending aid China. They don't get approached by the Chicom Glowies, they get approached by a cousin who asks them to send him some missile plans because he can use them to start a business, and the cousin hands the to the chink glowies.

So you very likely have guys buying farms with no goals other than making money outside of Chicom control and being able to import food that isn't contaminated with heavy metals, but that doesn't mean that they won't turn into spies and massive security concerns.
And they all need to go back.

Hej22122 said:
The foreign owner and permanent resident thing to a lesser extent is probably to attract investment
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Correct, as @3-2-1836 points out. It also gives you a US visa so you can escape Bugpeople world to "check on your investment"

It also matters for the Chicoms.

DISCLAIMER: despite my advanced case of yellow fever, I am not a chink not a commie. I know people who have lived and worked in Locustland, so this is all second hnd information and I may have forgotten or confused details, so please take with a grain of salt as SOURCES FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER of Chicom fianances

The CCP taxes you not just based on income, but also on your savings. There is no reason to have any savings, Comrade, when the state will take care of you. This is a good portion of why Chinks hate banks. China also has a maximum daily, monthly, and yearly cash withdraw maximums for accounts. One of my friends who did some high-end work in china is still having to pay one of his former coworkers to draw down his Chicom bank balance and convert it.

Money earned on investments outside of China is not subject to these limits, though you still have to report everything to the Chink IRS and pay taxes.
This is why vegas whale trips are so popular with Chinese. Casinos don't track SHIT, so you write on your chink tax form "Flew to vegas, cashed out my gweilo coin, put into chips, lost it all on blackjack hookers. Here are recipts. this is Zhang Bugmanxiao, he will attest your most humber servant was in the casino losing thousands to wy-ree gweilo texans. Me so solly." While a chunk of it is actually sitting in a casino or family member's accounts.

There is also....
I am goign to try to summarize this to the utmost so it will have none of the nuance it really needs but
China has almost 4000 years of recorded history, the expectation of the average chinaman is that while China is eternal, every government will collapse eventually. So your family always needs a "plan b" and right now the popular Plan B is having a family branch in the US, ready to support with money/care packages and if needed provide shelter to the "main family" should the Mongols or Warring States once again arrise.
Hence the birthing farms.

tl;dr: That shit should all be seized, and they all need to go back.
Except the cute azn girls with a yt fetish; they can stay.

Mr. Racewar1488 said:
Oh god, what was I thinking!? Now everyone will say that my BMI is too high and that they will not have intercourse with me!
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You should have at least posted feet like @Dojima's Dragon. so the fat hairy-pitted creatures of the Beauty Parlor could rank them inbetween conspiring to lesbian date-rape their female friends.
lol j/k don't worry, they don't have any friends
You'll never get Curvy Goonette Kiwi Queens whaling for you at this rate.
Shamfur.
 
Falcos_Commisar said:
Remember, the Merkava has very little protected ammunition storage, think ~10 shells
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Merkeva series does have protected turret stowage like the Abrams and Leopold IIs. Hull ammunition stowage is done with two round cassettes, which protects against being ignited from whatever penetrated the hull. Isrealis have been very silent on what is their current hull ammunition protection scheme. After losing a Merkeva 3 or 4 to an iirc half ton IED about a decade ago. Prior to that the Isrealis were talking smack about the Abrams protection setup being inferior to the Merkeva's.
 
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Myrtle the Turtle said:
The state of the US economy is more fragile than Trump would like to admit. We can't be restrained for attacks based on when the stock market is open or closed because of oil prices and the downstream effects spikes have. Thats weakness. The world is soon going to put pressure on the US to do something to fix it, they will not however, help open the Strait, so its our headache now like it or not.

In the unlikely event this drags with no open Strait after Memorial Day, we will most certainly be looking at a recession for the US that Trump won't be able to fix easily. Downstream effects are going to be harder to fix than if they were addressed upfront.
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Sort of disagree.

Its not the US economy that is fragile - short term we are making BANK.

One of the liberal, but non-TDS guys in my neighborhood was sayin he inherited some land in the midwest and had leased out the oil & gas rights, since February the lease went from paying "under a thosand to very close to 10" per month, and was having a hammed up faux-crisis of "...I think I like Trump now."

The US is perfectly positioned to reap a huge windfall.... short term.

The problem is that as a nation built on trade, even if the US economy stays strong, if the rest of the worlds economies take a massive shit, it'll hit us eventually.
See also:
A Japanese business man in 2009 screaming at he TV before he jumps from his 40th story balcony
"HOW THE FUCK DID SOME ROUNDEYE GIVING A BUNCH OF WORTHLESS NIGGERS IN FLORIDA MORTGAGES THEY COULDN'T AFFORD CAUSE ME TO LOSE EVERYTHING?!"

Its like peeing your pants in the snow: It feels good NOW but is going to make things worse long term becasue it won't be the US in a recession, it'll be half the planet or more in a recession.
 
ThisIsGonnaBeGood said:
if anyone is going to act as a mediator, it should be the UAE
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I don't think the UAE can possibly be expected to be a neutral third party. Granted, Iran has worked hard to make sure nobody but Europe likes them.

North Sentinel Island it must be.

mindlessobserver said:
The USS Boxer should be arriving in the coming days. If its not already been stated, it is carrying the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit.

This is one of the US Marine Corps best units. Now, to be sure, they are all "the best", but the 11th MEU is the difference between saying "We are sending the 1st Armored Division" and "We are sending the 101st Airborne Division". Both are well trained and equal units. But everyone knows that some units are more equal then others, and the 11th MEU is one of those units. These guys were the ones sent in the first wave of the Iraq War and fought the Battle of Najaf. They've not been put on a ship and sailed across the planet to take selfies.
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A MEU is just a placeholder. I don't know why people talk about them like they're more than an organizational structure. The battalion landing team, the logistics component, the air wing, and even the ships involved changes regularly. The USS Boxer isn't always in the 11th MEU. Google tells me the current BLT is 3/5-- the third battalion of the fifth Marine Regiment.

Saying the 11th MEU is "the best unit" makes as much sense as saying the 2 entree meal deal at Panda Express is the tastiest menu item. Did you get the Sesame Chicken or what?
 
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Mike_Israeltel said:
Saying the 11th MEU is "the best unit" makes as much sense as saying the 2 entree meal deal at Panda Express is the tastiest menu item. Did you get the Sesame Chicken or what?
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Its more like saying the pizza in front of you is the best pizza, because Marines are always good but the ones closest to actually killing muzzies are the best.
 
It's not unreasonable to be concerned about gas prices, I don't know why some posters call it dooming, like another poster said that's the biggest concern for a lot of people right now when it's jumping daily and it would be stupid to handwave it away. Iran has no issues stalling negotiations not because they have any advantage, they're a death cult that has no problem letting their population starve to death to save the face of their regime. We've all seen how they literally make shit up in real time, they'd rather die and try to take the world with them than admit defeat. Don't trust the average American citizen to be informed enough to vote with any kind of hind/foresight either, everyone's vote counts and the common denominator might vote for more infinity jeetnig gibs to whichever party promises $2 gas again.
Myrtle the Turtle said:
I don't think he can wait on two fronts, the higher gas prices are hitting him on affordability where Trump is weakest if not downright ignorant on the issue. Colleges are wrapping up graduation and high school will let out soon, if fuel prices are still high, thats going to be a huge clusterfuck for him. If its Americans 250th summer and people have to scale down plans because airline and fuel prices are high, you can bet his poll numbers will tank and bring the candidates down with him. People can't eat stocks.

The other point is the IRGC have stalled and its bought them enough time to dig out their missiles. Their war machine is crippled for new equipment, but the buried missiles present a real and present threat. We have enough interceptors, but we shouldn't be burning through them if it can be helped.
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Well we have seen confirmation outside of the United States, the rest of the world doesn't give a solitary fuck if a few thousand to a few billion people die if it means they get their oil on time.
 
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