Star Wars Griefing Thread (SPOILERS) - Safety off

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I'm pegging Episode IX at 1b worldwide (no galaxy brain analysis, just my usual shitty hunches skewed towards round numbers) and make under $10m in it's Chinese opening weekend. Considering how badly Ranger Solo underperfromed there, I'm legitimately curious if Disney's going to cut it's losses in the Middle Kingdom or pull out the stops on yet another PR blitz in a vain attempt to land those sweet, sweet All-Under-Heavenbux.
 
Do we have a pool set up yet on what the opening night in China will gross?
Doesn't China only allow a certain number of foreign films to be shown each year? Might be smarter money to have another movie in IX's place (not that Disney would allow this PR black eye)
My thinking is Episode IX be mainly between 700 million to 900 million in box office earnings. I legit see it becoming a disappointment that earns a mediocre profit given they're still reshooting.

I can see it go higher, and I can even see it go lower, but I can't see it cross too much over 1.000 B because of other shit that could suck oxygen out of it (Frozen 2 and Dinosaur Autism 3), and it is the conclusion of a trashfire trilogy, meaning it will probably see more asses in seats than Soylo so I can't see it dip too much below 700 mil.

But if I'm surprised and it flops, fuck yeah. If it does better then expected, eh.
I'm still in the 1b area dude to the money bump gained from ending an era/trilogy. As long as it's mediocre pandering and not an absolute dumpster fire it should cross 1b. We're looking at all of the news and leaks knowing it'll be trash, but if JJ can hoodwink the general population for 2 weeks it'll probably make it. I know tons of damage has been done to the SW brand from TLJ, but it still grossed 1.3b...

I thought Frozen 2 was spaced far enough apart to not have that much effect and the real competition was Jumanji 3, but looking at their box office takes shows impressive gains for what would be SW's release week.
 
Doesn't China only allow a certain number of foreign films to be shown each year? Might be smarter money to have another movie in IX's place (not that Disney would allow this PR black eye)

Yes, though studios routinely submit reasonably large offerings even if they don't think they'll actually get the green light- no harm in trying, after all. And as I recall, they had a YUUUUGE PR blitz in China for TLJ, only for it to sink without a trace. It would probably be a smart choice to just let the Chinese box office go at this point, but when have Disney Wars and smart choices been connected in any way at all?
 
I see Amazon acquiring either all of Disney or just the Fox assets only in two to three years time. Hell, even MovieBob, the dimwitted landmass he is, thinks Amazon could be the one buy Disney one day. If that happens, Bob Iger or the next CEO will be out for good and will be remembered as the one who let Disney be sold to Amazon.
You know, maybe that's what Iger was after all along. He bought an obscenely pricey franchise, had it run into the ground to drop Disney's price, so it can be bought by Amazon quicker. He'll then live off his absurd fortune made by short-selling Disney Stocks before the expected drop in value and by the huge sum of money paid to him as a goodbye gift from Amazon...
 
You know, maybe that's what Iger was after all along. He bought an obscenely pricey franchise, had it run into the ground to drop Disney's price, so it can be bought by Amazon quicker. He'll then live off his absurd fortune made by short-selling Disney Stocks before the expected drop in value and by the huge sum of money paid to him as a goodbye gift from Amazon...
While I’m not saying they would, Amazon does have the size to buy Disney.
It’d be damning if Jeff Bezos out of all people fixes Star Wars by getting rid of the incompetent management.
 
Yes, though studios routinely submit reasonably large offerings even if they don't think they'll actually get the green light- no harm in trying, after all. And as I recall, they had a YUUUUGE PR blitz in China for TLJ, only for it to sink without a trace. It would probably be a smart choice to just let the Chinese box office go at this point, but when have Disney Wars and smart choices been connected in any way at all?
Not to mention Disney had so little faith in Solo performing well in China that they renamed it Ranger Solo and removed all references of it being a SW film. Then there's the whole Mulan controversy going on in China right now where there's people asking the live-action remake be banned for historical inaccuracy and because the Mulan actress won't stop saying shit that's pissing off the Chinese population.

Regardless, China was never the biggest source of money for the Disney Wars films, so it was never really a concern. The biggest sources (according to Box Office Mojo) have always been the US, the UK and a few parts of Europe. Those are the countries you should be concerned with.

And speaking of Solo, China and probabilities of success...
My thinking is Episode IX be mainly between 700 million to 900 million in box office earnings. I legit see it becoming a disappointment that earns a mediocre profit given they're still reshooting.

I can see it go higher, and I can even see it go lower, but I can't see it cross too much over 1.000 B because of other shit that could suck oxygen out of it (Frozen 2 and Dinosaur Autism 3), and it is the conclusion of a trashfire trilogy, meaning it will probably see more asses in seats than Soylo so I can't see it dip too much below 700 mil.

But if I'm surprised and it flops, fuck yeah. If it does better then expected, eh.
I'm pegging Episode IX at 1b worldwide (no galaxy brain analysis, just my usual shitty hunches skewed towards round numbers) and make under $10m in it's Chinese opening weekend. Considering how badly Ranger Solo underperfromed there, I'm legitimately curious if Disney's going to cut it's losses in the Middle Kingdom or pull out the stops on yet another PR blitz in a vain attempt to land those sweet, sweet All-Under-Heavenbux.
I should mention that we're being too pessimistic (or optimistic depending on how you look at it) in regards to IX's performance. First off, everyone who's read the thread knows that I'm in the "IX will probably make 700mil to 900mil or more" camp, but one thing I've noticed that's started changing my mind a bit is a recurring pattern we're seeing.

For example, before Solo premiered, people online and a few even in this thread were talking about how the film would easily make 800mil or that it might underperform but only a little, with most arguments being "ITS FUCKING HAN SOLO! How could it fail?!" or "Its a Star Wars movie. That automatically means it'll make bank" and even in this thread Optimistic ratings were getting thrown around quite a lot (even by me despite wanting it to bomb but thinking it would gross 800mil or 900mil) when discussing the possibility of Solo outright bombing. Then the movie comes out and its a complete and total bomb and people on reddit and anywhere else online suddenly did a 180 and were like "Well yeah duh, of course it was gonna fail. I mean, who wants a movie about Han Solo amirite?" or blaming SW fatigue, Trump's America, Russian bots, the toxic fanbase, poor release date, "SW was never big in China", etc as usual.

Then there's the Resistance cartoon. Before the trailer or any animated previews officially dropped, SW communities were abuzz about how this would save the Disney Sequels like how Clone Wars cartoons saved the Prequels or how it would be a great new addition to Disney's "line of successes". People wouldn't even stop talking about how beautiful the concept art was and how the promised "anime-aesthetic" would ensure this becomes the next Korra [gag reflex]. Or saying that because Filoni was involved and it had a male main character, it meant that it was "born to succeed" or "free of Kennedy taint". It was gonna be "The sequels' own Clone Wars" and fix everything, or so they said. But then the first trailer drops and "WHAM", thing gets downvoted to Hell and torn apart on countless sites with the exception of r/starwars and other echo chamber forums which banned, hid or deleted any "toxic feedback". Show ends up underperforming badly in ratings/views. Is thrown into a doomed late night timeslot (Sunday 10PM) despite the show's framework being designed for ages 4-12 which are usually not up that late on a Sunday. Can't even beat any other show on Disney channel. Show reveals that it takes place entirely on one planet with no features. Characters are 1-dimensional idiots. Actually makes people hate the sequels more. Causes controversy after Leia's voice actress shows support for Brett Kavanaugh and Trump. Ends up doing so badly that people stop talking about it altogether. Future comic tie-ins get canned. Gets abysmal ratings across numerous review sites except Rotten Tomatoes which was later confirmed to have mostly fake reviews while negative ones were deleted. Then the show itself announces a fancy second season, despite that the only reason its getting one is because it was already green-lit for a second season before the show even aired, and then said second season reveal is followed by the announcement of its cancellation. And suffice it to say, the animation looks even worse now than it did for the first season despite having more planets and the damn thing can't even hit a million views which was an easy enough task for the show premiere trailer. Despite all this, there was a time when people thought this would be the second coming of Genndy Wars or Filoni Wars and there was no way it could fail, but look what happened.

Then there's the video games. EA's Battlefront 2 was hyped up by many as probably surpassing the original BF2 or being some amazing game in its own right, and most were saying that there was no chance the game could fuck up or fail even with TLJ's bad mojo right behind it, but EA found a way and it became one of the biggest controversies in games, seeing one of the most sudden dips in sales midway and it earned EA the most hated game company title once again and the most hated posts on Reddit, with their only saving grace now being some DLC items which are the equivalent of pitiful apology letters that not many are bothering to read. Then there's the shitty mobile games that have all been discontinued except one, and the recent cluster fuck of shitty VR games like Porg simulators and Droid Builders. As well as the shit concerning the Vader Immortal VR game but that's a whole other can of worms (clip from the game below).















People thought the games would continue to be the strongest point with SW after Disney bought it, and that EA's BFII would have things go swimmingly, but that turned out to be a load of bunk. Despite all of this, people still have hope for Fallen Order.

Then comes the merch. Toys are in such a decline that Hasbro wants little to do with SW and the "hottest" SW toys now are retro figures in retro boxes since those are the only ones that even remotely sell, yet people thought merch would forever continue to fly off the shelves simply because it has SW printed on it. Now you'll mostly see them on clearance.

Then finally Galaxy's Edge happens, probably the biggest clusterfuck of all after TLJ. I've already gone into strenuous detail about this as have others, but before its opening, people thought it would be some big amazing event. They thought there was no way it could tank (including me). Disney would destroy the theme park competition, or so people thought. But look what happened. It turned out to be far more of a failure than anyone thought, and even when it first opened and negative reviews were coming in, there were people on both pro and anti Disney sides saying stuff like "They could make a planet of shit and people will still go! ITS FUCKING STAR WARS! Doesn't matter how many nerds hate it! They will come!" then look what happened.

I'm not saying to be too optimistic about IX bombing, but be ready to expect the impossible to happen and expect the worst to actually transpire. Remember Murphy's Law. This string of fuck-ups have proven that Murphy's Law seems to currently be in full effect over at nu-Lucasfilm.
 
Doesn't China only allow a certain number of foreign films to be shown each year? Might be smarter money to have another movie in IX's place (not that Disney would allow this PR black eye)

I'm still in the 1b area dude to the money bump gained from ending an era/trilogy. As long as it's mediocre pandering and not an absolute dumpster fire it should cross 1b. We're looking at all of the news and leaks knowing it'll be trash, but if JJ can hoodwink the general population for 2 weeks it'll probably make it. I know tons of damage has been done to the SW brand from TLJ, but it still grossed 1.3b...

I thought Frozen 2 was spaced far enough apart to not have that much effect and the real competition was Jumanji 3, but looking at their box office takes shows impressive gains for what would be SW's release week.
I raise this point with Star Trek: Beyond, which also was a third movie, and which also came after a trash fire of a big film for the series (TLJ only had Ragu Juan, which was just mediocre before it). The film was actually quite good and the closest spiritually to Trek out of the lot... it flopped however due to Into Wrath of Khan being so bad (and made by JarJar fun fact).

I can see it beat the Billion tick, but I have a precedent that makes me think it'll just fall short, especially since there are other Chinamen and Cultist pleasing films like Jurassic Autism 3 and Frozen 2.
 
I can see it beat the Billion tick, but I have a precedent that makes me think it'll just fall short, especially since there are other Chinamen and Cultist pleasing films like Jurassic Autism 3 and Frozen 2.

On it's opening weekend, TLJ lost the top slot at the Chinese box office to "Ex-File 3: Revenge of the Exes." A sequel to a local rom-com that was a holdover from the previous week. You don't need Michael Bay-esque robot porn to be beat Star Wars in China, you need basic competence.
 
Not to mention Disney had so little faith in Solo performing well in China that they renamed it Ranger Solo and removed all references of it being a SW film. Then there's the whole Mulan controversy going on in China right now where there's people asking the live-action remake be banned for historical inaccuracy and because the Mulan actress won't stop saying shit that's pissing off the Chinese population.

Regardless, China was never the biggest source of money for the Disney Wars films, so it was never really a concern. The biggest sources (according to Box Office Mojo) have always been the US, the UK and a few parts of Europe. Those are the countries you should be concerned with.

And speaking of Solo, China and probabilities of success...


I should mention that we're being too pessimistic (or optimistic depending on how you look at it) in regards to IX's performance. First off, everyone who's read the thread knows that I'm in the "IX will probably make 700mil to 900mil or more" camp, but one thing I've noticed that's started changing my mind a bit is a recurring pattern we're seeing.

For example, before Solo premiered, people online and a few even in this thread were talking about how the film would easily make 800mil or that it might underperform but only a little, with most arguments being "ITS FUCKING HAN SOLO! How could it fail?!" or "Its a Star Wars movie. That automatically means it'll make bank" and even in this thread Optimistic ratings were getting thrown around quite a lot (even by me despite wanting it to bomb but thinking it would gross 800mil or 900mil) when discussing the possibility of Solo outright bombing. Then the movie comes out and its a complete and total bomb and people on reddit and anywhere else online suddenly did a 180 and were like "Well yeah duh, of course it was gonna fail. I mean, who wants a movie about Han Solo amirite?" or blaming SW fatigue, Trump's America, Russian bots, the toxic fanbase, poor release date, "SW was never big in China", etc as usual.

Then there's the Resistance cartoon. Before the trailer or any animated previews officially dropped, SW communities were abuzz about how this would save the Disney Sequels like how Clone Wars cartoons saved the Prequels or how it would be a great new addition to Disney's "line of successes". People wouldn't even stop talking about how beautiful the concept art was and how the promised "anime-aesthetic" would ensure this becomes the next Korra [gag reflex]. Or saying that because Filoni was involved and it had a male main character, it meant that it was "born to succeed" or "free of Kennedy taint". It was gonna be "The sequels' own Clone Wars" and fix everything, or so they said. But then the first trailer drops and "WHAM", thing gets downvoted to Hell and torn apart on countless sites with the exception of r/starwars and other echo chamber forums which banned, hid or deleted any "toxic feedback". Show ends up underperforming badly in ratings/views. Is thrown into a doomed late night timeslot (Sunday 10PM) despite the show's framework being designed for ages 4-12 which are usually not up that late on a Sunday. Can't even beat any other show on Disney channel. Show reveals that it takes place entirely on one planet with no features. Characters are 1-dimensional idiots. Actually makes people hate the sequels more. Causes controversy after Leia's voice actress shows support for Brett Kavanaugh and Trump. Ends up doing so badly that people stop talking about it altogether. Future comic tie-ins get canned. Gets abysmal ratings across numerous review sites except Rotten Tomatoes which was later confirmed to have mostly fake reviews while negative ones were deleted. Then the show itself announces a fancy second season, despite that the only reason its getting one is because it was already green-lit for a second season before the show even aired, and then said second season reveal is followed by the announcement of its cancellation. And suffice it to say, the animation looks even worse now than it did for the first season despite having more planets and the damn thing can't even hit a million views which was an easy enough task for the show premiere trailer. Despite all this, there was a time when people thought this would be the second coming of Genndy Wars or Filoni Wars and there was no way it could fail, but look what happened.

Then there's the video games. EA's Battlefront 2 was hyped up by many as probably surpassing the original BF2 or being some amazing game in its own right, and most were saying that there was no chance the game could fuck up or fail even with TLJ's bad mojo right behind it, but EA found a way and it became one of the biggest controversies in games, seeing one of the most sudden dips in sales midway and it earned EA the most hated game company title once again and the most hated posts on Reddit, with their only saving grace now being some DLC items which are the equivalent of pitiful apology letters that not many are bothering to read. Then there's the shitty mobile games that have all been discontinued except one, and the recent cluster fuck of shitty VR games like Porg simulators and Droid Builders. As well as the shit concerning the Vader Immortal VR game but that's a whole other can of worms (clip from the game below).
View attachment 902682














People thought the games would continue to be the strongest point with SW after Disney bought it, and that EA's BFII would have things go swimmingly, but that turned out to be a load of bunk. Despite all of this, people still have hope for Fallen Order.

Then comes the merch. Toys are in such a decline that Hasbro wants little to do with SW and the "hottest" SW toys now are retro figures in retro boxes since those are the only ones that even remotely sell, yet people thought merch would forever continue to fly off the shelves simply because it has SW printed on it. Now you'll mostly see them on clearance.

Then finally Galaxy's Edge happens, probably the biggest clusterfuck of all after TLJ. I've already gone into strenuous detail about this as have others, but before its opening, people thought it would be some big amazing event. They thought there was no way it could tank (including me). Disney would destroy the theme park competition, or so people thought. But look what happened. It turned out to be far more of a failure than anyone thought, and even when it first opened and negative reviews were coming in, there were people on both pro and anti Disney sides saying stuff like "They could make a planet of shit and people will still go! ITS FUCKING STAR WARS! Doesn't matter how many nerds hate it! They will come!" then look what happened.

I'm not saying to be too optimistic about IX bombing, but be ready to expect the impossible to happen and expect the worst to actually transpire. Remember Murphy's Law. This string of fuck-ups have proven that Murphy's Law seems to currently be in full effect over at nu-Lucasfilm.
The only point I could raise against what you have posted is that with the cartoon show, the video games, the park and the merch (to some degree) are things that are mainly carried by the hardcore fans (that have been pissed off by TFA and TLJ), but for IX to be commercially successful, it's enough to mobilize the normies.
The failure of the cartoons and everything else pretty much shows us that there is no market for shoddy products, even if there's an SW sticker on it, for spin-off material, the SW sticker isn't enough to attract the normies, while the quality is way too low to retain the nerds.

Now, what absolutely buttfucks that comment with a cactus is Solo. It should have attracted much more attention on its name alone, but didn't.
So who knows? All bets are off.

Will SW-fans crawl back to the cinema with a shabby excuse such as "I have to see the end of this for closure" or "TLJ wasn't that bad, right... right?"
Will normies just not care since the movies just don't do anything for them and the SW-Hype is gone to such a degree that there is no -for lack of a better word- peer pressure to watch it?
Will people be disenchanted with SW as a brand?

I can see this go either way and I hope for a massive bomb, but I expect a moderate success, where the movie makes a decent amount of money, but overall will fail to even come close to the success of the previous 2 movies. I expect 650mil, but I also expect an absurd drop in viewers in the first 2 weeks. Like 75% decrease each.
 
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The only point I could raise against what you have posted is that with the cartoon show, the video games, the park and the merch (to some degree) are things that are mainly carried by the hardcore fans (that have been pissed off by TFA and TLJ), but for IX to be commercially successful, it's enough to mobilize the normies.
The failure of the cartoons and everything else pretty much shows us that there is no market for shoddy products, even if there's an SW sticker on it, for spin-off material, the SW sticker isn't enough to attract the normies, while the quality is way too low to retain the nerds.

Now, what absolutely buttfucks that comment with a cactus is Solo. It should have attracted much more attention on its name alone, but didn't.
So who knows? All bets are off.

Will SW-fans crawl back to the cinema with a shabby excuse such as "I have to see the end of this for closure" or "TLJ wasn't that bad, right... right?"
Will normies just not care since the movies just don't do anything for them and the SW-Hype is gone to such a degree that there is no -for lack of a better word- peer pressure to watch it?
Will people be disenchanted with SW as a brand?

I can see this go either way and I hope for a massive bomb, but I expect a moderate success, where the movie makes a decent amount of money, but overall will fail to even come close to the success of the previous 2 movies. I expect 650mil, but I also expect an absurd drop in viewers in the first 2 weeks. Like 75% decrease each.
Agreed for the most part, but like I said, I'm still in the 700mil-900mil or more camp, its just that I'm more open to the idea of an actual complete failure which is something I never would've even considered a year ago.

As for the park, I don't think it necessarily falls under the category of hardcore nerd shit. Disney parks in general are normie magnets and would've attracted thousands simply because its part of Disney Land/World. But now it struggles just to maintain moderate attraction (while still running out of merch). Same with the Florida park's own reservation opening which is currently happening (along with some potentially illegal controversy). This failure along with the insane pricing for the hotel has proven that nu-Lucasfilm is hellbent on shooting itself in the foot.

Anyway, the public opening day for the Florida SW park is 7 days away.
 
I guess Disney was shit to Stan Lee as they are to Star Wars.

@GeneralFriendliness, remember when you said Disney’s treatment of SW was mediocre where as their treatment of Power Rangers was piss poor a year ago, well wouldn’t you argue that Disney’s treatment of Star Wars is as piss poor as Power Rangers?
 
I guess Disney was shit to Stan Lee as they are to Star Wars.

@GeneralFriendliness, remember when you said Disney’s treatment of SW was mediocre where as their treatment of Power Rangers was piss poor a year ago, well wouldn’t you argue that Disney’s treatment of Star Wars is as piss poor as Power Rangers?
I would say their treatment of SW is infinitely worse than Power Rangers. There's little comparison. But despite this, I doubt Disney will willingly sell SW like they did Power Rangers. For one thing, it would kill them in the eyes of their shareholders and investors while severely fucking their stocks. Secondly, Power Rangers is nowhere near as big of a cultural phenomenon as SW, not even close. Thirdly, Power Rangers was never 100% owned by Disney, as it was still technically partly owned by Toei/Bandai due to simply being an americanization of Super Sentai... BUT then again... in light of the recent news about George still owning the OT and pre-Disney media, then its possible that (in the event that IX somehow flops even harder than Solo) we could see something unexpected happen. What we can expect, I don't know, but it would be unexpected. But for now I'd rather not count my chickens before they hatch and I'd rather just stick with toying with the possibility that IX might actually bomb based on the previous string of failures. If it does and they announce more cancelled projects like how they cancelled the "Star Wars Stories" films, then we'll talk about what might be.
 
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Disney will spin them as
Chocolate Porg droppings.
Here in the modern ages some Tiki Room grade AA Porgs wouldn't even be _that_ hard to pull off in the guest rooms on a decent budget
hell, since I already hit the blue sky of "what if Disney Wars wasn't dog shit (and other fantastic imaginary tales) go with where the early Porg stuff seemed to be going where they died constantly and it was funny and make it some manner of gag like "turn out the light to dispatch the vermin control droid as you leave" and then run noises of blasters slaughtering the fuckers when you close the door or something
Disney had so little faith in Solo performing well in China that they renamed it Ranger Solo and removed all references of it being a SW film
I would like to know more about this. Given the legends of China giving minimal fucks about the OT I can see how this could happen but it's still an interesting development.
 
I mean, we're seeing this all the time now.

"Haha, X fans will just eat this shit up while we get a NEW audience! It doesn't matter what we do"

*Bombs*

"OH GOD HOW DID THIS HAPPEN, IT MUST BE THE ALT RIGHT AND THE RUSSIANS"

We're seeing this again and again and again and again. People are leaving these 'invincible' franchises because they've been sanitized and sterilized. How many more times does this shit have to play out?

Actually, I hope it keeps playing out. Fuck it. Let them all burn.
 
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