- Joined
- May 25, 2018
It's going to get bad. Imperial College (basically, the UK's MIT... if there is a group of researchers who know data science and modelling and getting their maths right, it's them) released a report that has forced the government here to change their previous 'pint at the winchester while it blows over' strategy. Page 8.
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Even following the new advice, intensive care facilities will be at capacity by the middle to late April (a month from now) with a peak in June of 8 times available capacity. That could mean that 7 out of every 8 patients presenting with a need for critical care will not have a bed.
We're building extra ventilators like crazy, and hotels are being approached to use as temporary hospitals. I think today, after reading this report, the government has finally woken up to how underprepared they are.
While it's not good news to see that the math is pointing towards a "the worst has yet to come" forecast, I guarantee that a lot of people will see this, assume that these hospital beds will be all overflowed by "infected" people, and freak out.
It's good to remind people that other illnesses still exist. This virus isn't stopping people from getting heart attacks, developing cancer, having strokes, etc. Those types of patients are still occupying hospital beds, too.
So yeah, it's not good to not have enough hospital and ICU beds, no matter how you shake it. However, it's important to remind people that these hospitals aren't all full with COVID-19 patients, too. I can easily see people (you know, the type of people that hoarded toilet paper) seeing these numbers and this chart, and then panicking all over again, thinking that the likelihood of catching this virus has become a 100% guarantee, or something.