China Floodwatch 2020-21 - Wuhan, Hubei/Henan Province is sinking and I dunno how to swim.

[potato in mah painus]

How do people get made whole after this event ends? Are there insurance companies in China? Does the government cover that? How do farms and businesses and homes get rebuilt and who pays for it?

I am asking, I do not know and it has been on my mind.

A disaster on this scale anywhere means there is nothing left to help the victims with. Biblical level events like this are a hard reset, pretty much the only way to fix things afterwards is get out the tools and rebuild yourself.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

That's not how it works. Head pressure is entirely based on depth. How much water is behind the dam at any given depth is irrelevant.

Multiply by 29.8 to get cubic feet per second. I keep forgetting these numbers are metric and get floored with how big the numbers are every time I start converting stuff.

Thanks for the conversion. I'm flying by the seat of my pants with some of this; but it is also a good project to improve my math and Metric skills so I am enjoying it.

I keep updating this since it doesn't take too long to do. We have a bona fide increase of 10cm as of 1PM and I'm just going to hold off on posting this so I can grab the 2PM update... annnnd it's a twofer. Looks like inflow is also dropping somewhat as predicted. Hopefully I am wrong and that decrease in inflow is not merely temporary.

*updated with the 3PM and 4PM numbers.
*5PM, 6PM, and 7PM added

Spoiler: Now with more Flood-chan

@melty

And yeah I agree, the numbers involved are pretty staggering considering the sheer volume of the reservoir. This is what a Google search told me about the reservoir area:

Steering a big ship and all that.

 

[melty]

Need more Flood-chan

Spoiler: Flood-chan

 

[reptile baht spaniard rid]

A disaster on this scale anywhere means there is nothing left to help the victims with. Biblical level events like this are a hard reset, pretty much the only way to fix things afterwards is get out the tools and rebuild yourself.

So like flood waters here, are we talking tsunami-type completely unnavigable or more like "Mississippi becomes 3 miles wide" and you could send aircraft carriers all the way up the river? Because some arks might be in order.

 

[thx1138]

So like flood waters here, are we talking tsunami-type completely unnavigable or more like "Mississippi becomes 3 miles wide" and you could send aircraft carriers all the way up the river? Because some arks might be in order.

"Yes."

Both things can happen.

 

[King Ghidorah]

Spoiler: Thread theme

 

[benutz]

Someone I know who has family in China is saying it's hard to get much info. He reckons the summer crops are going to fail, already, no matter if the 'big one' happens or not. He is worried about mass starvation. He also thinks that the CCP will allow the peasants to die rather than to ask for help and lose face. He has skin in the game. I take what he says with an 'interdasting' at least. He's worried that things are far far worse than even the little being reported. Again, this is all without even taking in to consideration the 3GD blowing.

Talking of which.

Some time back in the thread someone asked if there was some kind of simulation or something for if the 3GD blew out. I've only been catching up on the last few bits of the thread so sorry if it's been already posted. I found this -

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1286118329954873345

Seems plausible, but what do I know. I make no claims for its veracity.


And there is this bit of info included with it as well - some kind of loose translation regarding the simulation -

20 ft. high waves hitting Wuhan doesn't bear thinking about.

The Chinese really are living in 'interdasting' times.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Someone I know who has family in China is saying it's hard to get much info. He reckons the summer crops are going to fail, already, no matter if the 'big one' happens or not. He is worried about mass starvation. He also thinks that the CCP will allow the peasants to die rather than to ask for help and lose face. He has skin in the game. I take what he says with an 'interdasting' at least. He's worried that things are far far worse than even the little being reported. Again, this is all without even taking in to consideration the 3GD blowing.

Talking of which.

Some time back in the thread someone asked if there was some kind of simulation or something for if the 3GD blew out. I've only been catching up on the last few bits of the thread so sorry if it's been already posted. I found this -

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1286118329954873345

Seems plausible, but what do I know. I make no claims for its veracity.


And there is this bit of info included with it as well - some kind of loose translation regarding the simulation -

View attachment 1478235


20 ft. high waves hitting Wuhan doesn't bear thinking about.

The Chinese really are living in 'interdasting' times.

Great post. This is what we are sorely in need of in this thread at the moment: accounts from within China. If any of you have the ability to get information from people within China and if they can relay that information to us safely, please get that information! Even "mundane" things like what people are saying over lunch are of great interest to myself and (I am sure) many others.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Alright, here is my last update on this. My goal today was to track reservoir levels hourly to test my estimate from earlier. At the current rate (considering a dry day and continued rain thereafter) I thought there would be a meter of water level rise in the reservoir about every 11 hours. After watching the levels all day it has taken 12 hours to add a meter of water to the Three Gorges Dam reservoir. A new round of heavy rain starts in about five hours, with a brief pause in ~27 hours before we go right back to rain. This period of heavy rain coming up next is the big one for the week with the potential to drop 10cm in a single go. As things stand now and knowing that we have no clue what the future holds, the estimate of ~2 meters (6 feet!) of water rise per day in the Three Gorges Reservoir seems like it could pan out.

Here is the complete list of readings for the last 12 hours:

Spoiler: And here is Melty's version

@melty

 

[Super-Chevy454]

I guess the song "The Saints are coming" could be updated to describe "Flood-chan" in China.

 

[I can't imagine]

Alright, here is my last update on this. My goal today was to track reservoir levels hourly to test my estimate from earlier. At the current rate (considering a dry day and continued rain thereafter) I thought there would be a meter of water level rise in the reservoir about every 11 hours. After watching the levels all day it has taken 12 hours to add a meter of water to the Three Gorges Dam reservoir. A new round of heavy rain starts in about five hours, with a brief pause in ~27 hours before we go right back to rain. This period of heavy rain coming up next is the big one for the week with the potential to drop 10cm in a single go. As things stand now and knowing that we have no clue what the future holds, the estimate of ~2 meters (6 feet!) of water rise per day in the Three Gorges Reservoir seems like it could pan out.

Well...those numbers are disheartening. And I think the weather predictions are that it's pretty much going to keep on raining every day from Wednesday for like another week. Not as big an amount as on Wednesday, but still, day after day of 10-50 mm will add up over the week. But, y'know, weather predictions.

 

[Someone Awful]

I may as well ask questions while I'm here since well, this is a much bigger deal than COVID-19 and Nigger Lives Don't Matter. I know they're important, but when we're potentially facing the deadliest disaster in history (which we can blame on the CCP Party no less), this will have global ramifications.

First, where is the proof that Wuhan/cities on the Yangtze River manufacture like 90% of generic drugs on our market and a lot of manufacturing? I have been hearing that this will devastate pharmaceutical and manufacturing industries worldwide if the one in China gets trashed. I'd personally believe it, but I need proof that isn't on the world's worst website.

Second, how do we know that the area around the Yangtze River consist of 3% of the world's GDP? Do they just look at China's GDP and just include provinces that might be affected by the flooding. I wouldn't deny it, but again, need proof.

Third, I've been hearing a lot about how the Three Gorges Dam will cause a nuclear holocaust in China. I thought countries were shying away from using nuclear and this dam does use hydroelectricity.

Also, I'd be curious how exactly upstream would be affected by a collapse of the Three Gorges Dam. I have no doubt it would devastate part of it, but I'm just curious how the kickback to cities west of the TGD would occur.

Alright, here is my last update on this. My goal today was to track reservoir levels hourly to test my estimate from earlier. At the current rate (considering a dry day and continued rain thereafter) I thought there would be a meter of water level rise in the reservoir about every 11 hours. After watching the levels all day it has taken 12 hours to add a meter of water to the Three Gorges Dam reservoir. A new round of heavy rain starts in about five hours, with a brief pause in ~27 hours before we go right back to rain. This period of heavy rain coming up next is the big one for the week with the potential to drop 10cm in a single go. As things stand now and knowing that we have no clue what the future holds, the estimate of ~2 meters (6 feet!) of water rise per day in the Three Gorges Reservoir seems like it could pan out.

Here is the complete list of readings for the last 12 hours:
View attachment 1478550

Spoiler: And here is Melty's version

View attachment 1478549@melty

I just want to say that I really appreciate you and @melty for keeping track of this. I have been saving screenshots on my phone just in case neither of you were, but this is incredibly helpful. If you need my help, I can try taking over for a few hours.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Well...those numbers are disheartening. And I think the weather predictions are that it's pretty much going to keep on raining every day from Wednesday for like another week. Not as big an amount as on Wednesday, but still, day after day of 10-50 mm will add up over the week. But, y'know, weather predictions.

My sincere hope is that the forecasts are wrong and overestimating. As it is, even a centimeter of rain will be magnified significantly as it collects and pools in the reservoir. For example, the past 24 hours have only seen .1 inches of rain in most areas through sporadic storms, which is ~3mm of water. But it is having a massive impact on the reservoir.

I just want to say that I really appreciate you and @melty for keeping track of this. I have been saving screenshots on my phone just in case neither of you were, but this is incredibly helpful. If you need my help, I can try taking over for a few hours.

If @melty had not drawn my attention to qt Flood-chan (she's my waifu btw back the FUCK off) I wouldn't have been able to do this nearly as well.

 

[Sneed's Feed And Seed]

(she's my waifu btw back the FUCK off)

No way, she's wet for everybody.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Also, I'd be curious how exactly upstream would be affected by a collapse of the Three Gorges Dam. I have no doubt it would devastate part of it, but I'm just curious how the kickback to cities west of the TGD would occur.

I can tackle this one.

Upstream is already suffering due to the rising tide. But if the dam were to break, there would be a shock sent through the water. While the reservoir would drain, the shock of the water pouring through the breach would rebound backwards and cause temporary and sudden increases in water level in areas far removed from and behind the TGD site.

The nuclear issue is one I cannot give too much detail on. Though it is my understanding that as long as the dam holds, there is no real risk; however if the reservoir is able to push through there are several nuclear power stations that would be in the ensuing flood's path. I cannot tell you which ones exactly, but several are older reactors modeled after Russian design which would irradiate the floodwater.

 

[Someone Awful]

I can tackle this one.

Upstream is already suffering due to the rising tide. But if the dam were to break, there would be a shock sent through the water. While the reservoir would drain, the shock of the water pouring through the breach would rebound backwards and cause temporary and sudden increases in water level in areas far removed from and behind the TGD site.

The nuclear issue is one I cannot give too much detail on. Though it is my understanding that as long as the dam holds, there is no real risk; however if the reservoir is able to push through there are several nuclear power stations that would be in the ensuing flood's path. I cannot tell you which ones exactly, but several are older reactors modeled after Russian design which would irradiate the floodwater.

I see. So in other words, even provinces like Sichuan could be affected by this, but most of the damage would be downstream.

I will have to look up information on what nuclear power stations are also on the Yangtze River then. While I don't think it will get to the point where we see irradiated rain in the United States, it will poison food supply in China, particularly in regards to fishing. We're already looking at a likely famine this winter because of the flooding that are already happening. Add that to TGR collapsing alongside other dams along the way and nuclear power plants and we might be looking at tens of millions of death indirectly caused by it. What I'm concerned about if that the irradiated water will reach other East Asian and Southeast Asian countries like Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. It would devastate their economy as if they are reliant on fish for food, they would have to make expensive exports every time they want something to eat. That's not even scraping what would happen, but I could be all wrong about this.

 

[I can't imagine]

Third, I've been hearing a lot about how the Three Gorges Dam will cause a nuclear holocaust in China. I thought countries were shying away from using nuclear and this dam does use hydroelectricity.

There are several nuclear power plants in Zhejiang, near Shanghai . The concern is somewhat exaggerated, since the water flowing from TGD wouldn't be nearly as powerful by the time it flows down there, but it's possible the force could do damage to them. It's mostly a concern to the coastal cities in China, though since that's a pretty massive amount of people (around 25 million in just Shanghai itself), it'd be a much bigger problem than Fukushima was. Relocating a few thousand people for decontamination isn't that hard, but a few million is. I don't think there's any nuclear plants further west on the river, though I believe there are some under construction in Hubei and possibly Anhui? Don't remember.

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

Any time the United States has a major flooding event, death tolls are an insignificant statistic (I know that making death just a number is a bit callous, but between Louisiana 2016 and Harvey, only 81 people died, whereas this stunt has cost 140+ lives and rising. Also in the United States, there's a general idea of which areas will flood and some infrastructure in place to mitigate damage. Even Oroville Dam, which wasn't in good condition by 2017, had good enough standards that it held up for nearly half a century and the engineers in 1968 had enough sense to build an emergency spillway, which didn't need to be used for decades until it did.

I mean, does China even have a Corps of Engineers equivalent?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnstown_Flood

2200 people dead.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

I see. So in other words, even provinces like Sichuan could be affected by this, but most of the damage would be downstream.

I will have to look up information on what nuclear power stations are also on the Yangtze River then. While I don't think it will get to the point where we see irradiated rain in the United States, it will poison food supply in China, particularly in regards to fishing. We're already looking at a likely famine this winter because of the flooding that are already happening. Add that to TGR collapsing alongside other dams along the way and nuclear power plants and we might be looking at tens of millions of death indirectly caused by it. What I'm concerned about if that the irradiated water will reach other East Asian and Southeast Asian countries like Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. It would devastate their economy as if they are reliant on fish for food, they would have to make expensive exports every time they want something to eat. That's not even scraping what would happen, but I could be all wrong about this.

Earlier on in the thread someone was discussing the ability of salt water to mitigate the spread of radiation. I'm not sure the extent to which the open ocean would stop such an event though.

As for the farmlands, many of them will be fortunate if they can get up and running by next year's growing season. The damage being done by flood waters is immense, the failure of the Three Gorges Dam nonwithstanding. There are going to be a lot of agricultural sites that will not be up and running for at least an entire growing season after 2020. Not to mention things like bridges that must be rebuilt; it's not like they will be able to rebuild what was there before. The entire landscape is being changed by the floodwaters and everything will have to be resurveyed, with some sites becoming unsuitable when they had been suitable before.

 

[Standardized Profile]

So like flood waters here, are we talking tsunami-type completely unnavigable or more like "Mississippi becomes 3 miles wide" and you could send aircraft carriers all the way up the river? Because some arks might be in order.

The Chinese will finally be able to prove those treasure ships existed and were seaworthy. They better start building them now, while they have time.