I don't think so. There wasn't a split in 1968, when Wallace literally left his party to run on the segregationist American Independent ticket; he remained a Democrat after costing them the election. If anything should have split the party, it would have been segregationists vs Johnson's civil rights-favoring group. After that, it should have been a liberal vs conservative split, but instead the conservatives just drifted into the Republican Party while the Democrats backfilled their numbers with minority special interest groups.
There wasn't a split after 1992, when Perot pulled 19% of the popular vote, mostly from Bush 1 but also from Clinton (who only got 43% of the vote). In fact I'd argue Perot solidified the 2-party system for decades, because every politico who remembers him and Nader in 2000 is deathly afraid of losing elections to 3rd parties.
It would have to take progressives deciding they didn't care about winning elections, they want their own "pure" party so badly that they are going to put up with a decade of GOP wins to get their new party off the ground. They'd have to be as insane as the big-L type Libertarians, who formed their own party that did nothing but weaken the small-l Ron Paul libertarian wing remaining within the Republican party.
Maybe they're deep enough into a purity spiral to do it. But I also get the feeling they are too wrapped up in winning and too horrified by the GOP boogeyman to risk leaving the power of the party behind.
Remember, this is the side that specializes in subverting organizations and power structures to their own ideological end. They have every reason to believe they can turn the Democratic party into their own machine, and wield all the ready-to-go power for themselves.
I don't exactly mean a split to form a new party, but rather as a civil war to take control of the party. People like Jimmy Dore may talk about the benefits of starting a third party but this is stupid and no one knows this better than people like AOC, who is probably in no way eager to return back to the cadre of losers that is the Socialist Party of America. They now have gotten taste of power in a party that is well entrenched and has a loyal voter base. But until now there has been a barely concealed tension between the three factions of the party.
Faction A, the establishment. These people are the Clintonites, Obama loyalists, etc. Mostly the neo-liberal bunch that in terms of actual ideology has the least amount of support yet due to money and connections, are the most represented in the party and the media, they are currently in a battle with:
Faction B, the progressives: Newcomers into the party and mostly young people and old marxists. They were cockteased with socialism by Obama and have built a delusion that the country is extremely far-left and will vote for far-left social and economic policies if only they have their way. They are very present in social media due to sympathizers in Silicon Valley and infiltration of other companies since they attract a young radical bunch, but are very loud, giving the illusion that they are a massive force of the party yet like Faction A, they are also in a battle with:
Faction C, the Blue Dogs and moderates: These are mostly working class people and despite being the least represented in media and in government, probably the biggest voter base in the party, and currently the one that is bleeding out due to either death of the boomers, or increasing disgust with Faction A's whoring to the big multinationals as well as Faction B's radicalism.
In the event of the Trump win, what I fully expect is a return to the 2016-2018 style politics in which people like AOC primaried and replaced establishment Dems yet this time it will be full on war. After 2018 there seemed to have been an apparent ceasefire just to keep the public eye of a unified party, but all bets are off after 2020. If Biden wins, then Faction A keeps the status quo if only for a few years, if Trump wins, Faction B will become even more radical and the mask will come off as they try to take over the party, meanwhile, Faction C will keep on being ignored, which makes them prime targets for populist Republicans.
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