Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Drain Todger]

I'm not a doctor, even if I do have a doctorate, but here's how I'd look at those numbers. The 6% represents a floor for the number of "actual COVID deaths." The 180k represents an approximate ceiling (could be untested deaths out there). In between we have murky and highly heterogeneous data being mashed together. "Comorbidities" covers a wide range of issues, and the specifics of those issues should matter to how we consider "cause of death." If someone who was on life support after a mortal gunshot wound tested positive, I'd blame the gunshot wound. If someone with beetus and hypertension died, I'd blame it on the bat, because those conditions aren't themselves fatal. My guess is that the comorbidities from a lifetime of pork rinds are going to make up a decent percentage of the 174k. But without doing autopsies on all the dead, I don't think we'll ever know the true number. It's certainly much higher than the 6%, and probably not as high as the official number.

Well, this is the actual data:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups.

Updated August 26, 2020

	Number of Conditions
	Age Group
Conditions Contributing to Deaths where COVID-19 was listed on the death certificate1	ICD–10 codes	All ages	0–24 years	25–34 years	35–44 years	45–54 years	55–64 years	65–74 years	75–84 years	85 years and over
Total COVID-19 deaths2, as of 8/22/2020	U071	161,392	330	1,241	3,228	8,501	20,295	34,334	42,587	50,867
Respiratory diseases		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Influenza and pneumonia	J09–J18	68,004	111	564	1,428	3,967	9,438	15,389	18,116	18,989
Chronic lower respiratory diseases	J40–J47	13,780	24	59	139	403	1,486	3,262	4,335	4,071
Adult respiratory distress syndrome	J80	21,899	59	231	612	1,795	3,777	5,757	5,317	4,349
Respiratory failure	J96	54,803	99	401	1,016	2,981	7,208	12,601	15,100	15,394
Respiratory arrest	R09.2	3,282	6	21	64	160	362	667	891	1,111
Other diseases of the respiratory system	J00–J06, J20–J39, J60–J70, J81–J86, J90–J95, J97–J99, U04	5,664	18	45	113	287	708	1,193	1,531	1,769
Circulatory diseases		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Hypertensive diseases	I10–I15	35,272	14	98	447	1,529	4,237	7,701	9,679	11,566
Ischemic heart disease	I20–I25	18,103	2	22	90	420	1,656	3,695	5,461	6,755
Cardiac arrest	I46	20,210	46	186	470	1,324	2,923	4,560	5,080	5,620
Cardiac arrhythmia	I44, I45, I47–I49	9,812	9	22	58	221	709	1,748	2,873	4,172
Heart failure	I50	10,562	4	40	82	272	887	1,809	2,913	4,555
Cerebrovascular diseases	I60–I69	7,653	7	23	80	269	871	1,704	2,237	2,461
Other diseases of the circulatory system	I00–I09, I26–I43, I51, I52, I70–I99	8,743	39	98	209	504	1,129	1,928	2,157	2,679
Sepsis	A40–A41	14,053	31	136	345	1,035	2,404	3,863	3,539	2,700
Malignant neoplasms	C00–C97	7,415	24	31	90	277	1,006	1,932	2,250	1,805
Diabetes	E10–E14	25,936	41	168	585	1,797	4,262	6,956	6,912	5,214
Obesity	E65–E68	5,614	79	272	630	1,017	1,399	1,317	695	205
Alzheimer disease	G30	5,608	0	0	0	2	50	372	1,627	3,557
Vascular and unspecified dementia	F01, F03	18,497	0	0	2	20	283	1,713	5,409	11,070
Renal failure	N17–N19	13,693	14	110	287	909	2,001	3,477	3,597	3,296
Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events	S00–T98, V01–X59, X60–X84, X85–Y09, Y10–Y36, Y40–Y89, U01–U03	5,133	36	124	176	302	609	1,003	1,220	1,661
All other conditions and causes (residual)	A00–A39, A42–B99, D00–E07, E15–E64, E70–E90, F00, F02, F04–G26, G31–H95, K00–K93, L00–M99, N00–N16, N20–N99, O00–O99, P00–P96, Q00–Q99, R00–R08, R09.0, R09.1, R09.3, R09.8, R10–R99	77,990	251	700	1,552	4,195	10,497	18,134	20,356	22,296

It shows exactly what one would expect. The majority of those dying have some combination of old age, hypertension, heart trouble, diabetes, and so forth. This is because COVID-19 preys on people who have Metabolic Syndrome and the associated conditions. That's because these conditions cause endothelial dysfunction and increased ACE2 expression (they make blood vessels behave like they're prematurely aged).

Metabolic syndrome and COVID-19: An update on the associated comorbidities and proposed therapies

Named by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the novel coronavirus, with origin associated with the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China, spread rapidly worldwide causing thousands of deaths, characterizing the infection as a public health problem of global interest [1,2]. With a high infectivity rate, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, reached pandemic proportions [3].

According to the report published by World Health Organization (WHO) on June 1st, the number of confirmed cases reaches 6,057,853 distributed in 216 countries, with emphasis on the European and American continents, with more than two million cases each, together adding up around 82% of infected global number. COVID-19 has already killed more than 371,166 people worldwide, especially among elderly patients and individuals with comorbidities. Currently, the United States (U.S.) has already more than 1,734,040 confirmed cases, but, despite its large number of infected people, it is countries like Spain (29,045 deaths), Italy (33,415 deaths) and The United Kingdom (38,489 deaths) which presented the highest mortality rate, exceeding 10% [4].

The disease evolution and the symptoms vary from asymptomatic patients to severe cases of respiratory failure, which can lead to death [5]. Some risk factors may be associated with the evolution and disease severity. In a study conducted in the U.S., during March 2020, with 1482 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in fourteen states, 12% of the total were history of comorbidities. Of this total, 49.7% were hypertensive, 48.3% were obese, patients with chronic liver diseases totaled 34.6%, diabetics represented 28.3% and people with cardiovascular diseases were 27.8% [6]. In another study conducted in Wuhan city, China, 191 patients with COVID-19 were followed up, of which 48% had comorbidities such as hypertension (30%), diabetes (19%) and coronary disease (8%) [7]. Until June 1st, 2020, Brazil had 347,398 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 13,868 deaths associated with comorbidities. Heart disease was the most common comorbidity with total of 7318 deaths, followed by diabetes, kidney disease, neurological disease, pneumopathy, obesity, immunosuppression and asthma, with a total of 5627, 1218, 1159, 1061, 742, 740 and 397 deaths, respectively [8].

In this context, metabolic syndrome (MS) is inserted as a common denominator to these comorbidities, since it is defined as a set of metabolic disorders that include insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, central obesity and hypertension, which are risk factors for the development of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases [9,10]. In 2017, it was estimated that MS affected 20% of North American population, 25% of European population and approximately 15% of Chinese population [11,12]. In this scenario, the relationship between MS and its comorbidities that aggravate the COVID-19 prognosis cannot be ignored. Also, its presence in different ethnicities and continents places SM as an important risk factor for COVID-19. Thus, this review is aimed at providing overview of metabolic changes associated with MS and its relationship with development and worsening of SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as to review the proposed drugs for the treatment of these patients. We collated and discussed the available evidences that have emerged so far on the presence of obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular and liver disease in the patients with COVID-19 and proposed therapies.

Diabetes has been identified as the second most common comorbidity among cases of COVID-19. Hypotheses have been raised that this high incidence rate in diabetic patients is directly linked to high gene expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in their cells, which are used by SARS-CoV-2 to enter human cells, due to treatment with ACE inhibitors and angiotensin II type-I receptor blockers (ARBs) [30]. This would not only increase the risk of these patients to infection but would also make it difficult to control comorbidity during treatment against COVID-19. This relationship is not yet fully understood and further studies are needed to confirm it, since the drug treatment protocols for diabetic patients remain the same for their metabolic dysfunction [31].

If this thing was made in a lab in China as a bioweapon against Americans, they could not have formulated it any better than this. COVID-19 is an American-killer.

 

[knobslobbin]

We were having this discussion in a different thread, but the jannies moved it here.

I don't think any jannies will be trying to clean this glorified containment thread anytime soon.

Discussion is a very nice way of thinking about your shit flinging chimpout. Goddamn jannies, this is not a dumping ground! :/

 

[AlexJonesGotMePregnant]

This gives credence to the idea that the best prophylaxis against COVID-19 is to stop being fat

you first, pony boy

 

[DrearyDoomguy]

At the end of the day the important question is, how many of those with comorbidities would still be alive if not for the virus? Our excess deaths for 2020 are certainly significantly above average, so at bare minimum it is a threat in a country as unhealthy as our, like @Drain Todger often points out.

I think this is a strong argument for making policy responses more targeted for those with underlying conditions. For all the money we’re pissing away with these lockdowns who’s to say we can’t just isolate those with conditions while the rest of the population goes about their lives?

 

[It's HK-47]

Discussion is a very nice way of thinking about your shit flinging chimpout. Goddamn jannies, this is not a dumping ground! :/

The solution to this is very simple and yet it just keeps happening.

 

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

View attachment 1561837

The solution to this is very simple and yet it just keeps happening.

If they hadn't tagged me, I wouldn't have explained why their conclusion was wrong and caused them to chimp out

 

[Drain Todger]

you first, pony boy

There is no such thing as "healthy at any size". Any amount of obesity puts a huge strain on the body. Venous insufficiency in the lower legs, metabolic issues, diabetes, high blood pressure, lipid metabolism issues. It affects everything.

The obesity rate in the US is huge:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/10/16/u-s-obesity-rates-have-hit-an-all-time-high-infographic/#6d7831b14bad

Half of U.S. Population Will Be Obese by 2030

If current trends continue, one in two adults will be obese in coming decades

time.com

Notice anything? It's even more highly concentrated in the Deep South.

Now, check this out. This is a map of states by African-American population density:

African-American women have highest obesity rate: CDC says

African-American women have highest obesity rate: CDC says

wjla.com

COVID-19 is a major problem in the US due to the sheer number of people with the specific comorbidities that it preys upon.

At the end of the day the important question is, how many of those with comorbidities would still be alive if not for the virus? Our excess deaths for 2020 are certainly significantly above average, so at bare minimum it is a threat in a country as unhealthy as our, like @Drain Todger often points out.

I think this is a strong argument for making policy responses more targeted for those with underlying conditions. For all the money we’re pissing away with these lockdowns who’s to say we can’t just isolate those with conditions while the rest of the population goes about their lives?

This is a very reasonable conclusion. I think an even better one would be advising the American public to engage in exercise and calorie restriction to reverse the effects of premature aging. That's the real long-term fix for this problem. Everyone needs to be losing 10 pounds a month if their BMI is over 30. That's what the CDC should be instructing people to do.

 

[AlexJonesGotMePregnant]

There is no such thing as "healthy at any size". Any amount of obesity puts a huge strain on the body. Venous insufficiency in the lower legs, metabolic issues, diabetes, high blood pressure, lipid metabolism issues. It affects everything.

The obesity rate in the US is huge:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/10/16/u-s-obesity-rates-have-hit-an-all-time-high-infographic/#6d7831b14bad

View attachment 1561836

Half of U.S. Population Will Be Obese by 2030

If current trends continue, one in two adults will be obese in coming decades

time.com

View attachment 1561838

Notice anything? It's even more highly concentrated in the Deep South

Now, check this out. This is a map of states by African-American population density:

View attachment 1561842

African-American women have highest obesity rate: CDC says

African-American women have highest obesity rate: CDC says

wjla.com

COVID-19 is a major problem in the US due to the sheer number of people with the specific comorbidities that it preys upon.



This is a very reasonable conclusion. I think an even better one would be advising the American public to engage in exercise and calorie restriction to reverse the effects of premature aging. That's the real long-term fix for this problem. Everyone needs to be losing 10 pounds a month if their BMI is over 30. That's what the CDC should be instructing people to do.

i wasn't arguing with you, i was calling you fat. as we've all seen your pictures i think it's safe to say that between your freakout at the beginning of this thread and your salty futa obesity that you are probably at a higher risk than the rest of the AIDS-riddled posters on this thread.

how about everytime you start to sperg, you go for a jog instead?

 

[Standardized Profile]

You guys can just admit you were reading this chart wrong anytime now. You can't possibly be this stupid. Covid caused the additional conditions on 94% of the charts of the dead patients. It's not a hard concept. I know you guys can get this.

I haven't read the whole discussion nor do I intend to, but figuring out how Covid could cause pre-existing conditions is a pretty hard concept. After thinking really hard about it, I think I got it: high-calorie tachyons.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

At the end of the day the important question is, how many of those with comorbidities would still be alive if not for the virus? Our excess deaths for 2020 are certainly significantly above average, so at bare minimum it is a threat in a country as unhealthy as our, like @Drain Todger often points out.

EXACTLY. That's why I don't get why people are making a fuss about these CDC numbers. It's like arguing George Floyd died of a fentanyl overdose (or COVID, which he had and is probably listed as a victim of somewhere) when who knows what would've happened if he didn't take a knee to his neck for a few minutes. Yes, the majority of CCPvirus victims probably would've died of their pre-existing conditions in a few months anyway, but they still got their lives cut short by the disease.

View attachment 1561837

The solution to this is very simple and yet it just keeps happening.

I sperged in their thread in community watch so it's only fair he can sperg over here.

 

[Orange Rhymer]

I just wanted to add to the vitamin and medical advice...

Vitamin C is literally magical. There is nothing that Vit. C cannot cure. If there is one vitamin to use daily, it's Vit. C.

imho, not a Dr.

 

[JosephStalin]

I believe that COVID kills people, but lots of things kill people, and everyone dies of something, sometime.

About 10 years ago, an elderly relative of mine went into hospital after a fall and ended up dying from a respiratory disease that she caught in there. I don't think they even tried to find out what it was because, guess what? She was over 80, and the elderly die from shit like that all the time.

The relevant question is not "can COVID kill people?" but "is it so deadly that much of the planet should shut down for months on end, that people should remain cowering in their homes, wearing muzzles on the streets and maintaining 2m distance from one another at all times?"

My answer is Fuck No, and I'm not sure that any disease could justify such a response tbh. Better to die on your feet than live on your knees.

Indeed. All the little Hitlers need to drop all their various states of house arrest NOW. Going with the 6%, most likely more people died from auto accidents during the six months-plus from 1 February to 22 August 2020. Sadly, believe the little Hitlers will ignore these statistics entirely and keep fucking with us as long as they can. I consider such behavior malicious, if not outright criminal.


But even if all the little Hitlers dropped their house arrests now, they leave a legacy of anger, resentment, a lack of credibility, and a total loss of confidence in them by the people behind. They have all shown us they'll go full Nazi at the drop of a hat, common sense be damned.

The next time something like this happens - and there will be a next time - the little Hitlers would be sadly mistaken to count on much support from the public. We've been lied to, bullshitted, and in general treated like a bunch of children during this thing. Only a few governors put things into perspective and didn't go full Nazi.

This turned entirely political after two weeks. Enough time to lock things down, determine hot spots, quarantine them plus buffer zones, everyone else go back to work/school/etc., wearing masks. Fairly logical, I believe. But not one governor did this. Not a one. We've seen the vast majority of governors at their worst - Cuomo, Newsom, and Whitmer trying to out-Nazi each other, especially. And Cuomo has a lot of blood on his hands.

The economic damage from this utter clusterfuck can be fixed reasonably quickly. The educational damage could take as long as two years to remedy, depending on the type of school. The societal damage will take much longer to recover, if at all. Hard for government/law enforcement/judicial system to get credibility and trust back when they've acted so irresponsibly.



Added: Talk nice to people. The ChiCom Flu and associated governmental fuckups are not our fault. Everyone has a contribution to make. Expressing opinions is a contribution. Relax.

 

[Drain Todger]

i wasn't arguing with you, i was calling you fat. as we've all seen your pictures i think it's safe to say that between your freakout at the beginning of this thread and your salty futa obesity that you are probably at a higher risk than the rest of the AIDS-riddled posters on this thread.

how about everytime you start to sperg, you go for a jog instead?

All of the information that I've shared about COVID-19 has, since the very beginning, been scientifically accurate to the best of my knowledge. The only thing that was missing was the actual mortality figures. We now know that people who are 50+ years old make up the majority of the death figures.

My initial source of panic stemmed from what I saw happening in Wuhan.

China lied about the number of infections and deaths in Wuhan. They lied flagrantly.

There were millions of infected, 200,000 to 300,000 hospitalized, and at least 40,000 to 60,000 dead in Wuhan alone, of which maybe a couple thousand suffered seizures. China would have you believe that there were only 89,000 cases in the whole country. Impossible.

The reason why this didn't happen elsewhere? Building codes.

https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2003/pr70/en/

Meeting in Rome, an international group of WHO experts reviewed the transmission risks related to the current state of plumbing systems around the world and how inadequate construction and maintenance practices could contribute to the spread of SARS.

“In many countries there will be buildings where keeping sewage separate from building occupants is a critical challenge,” observed Dr Bartram. “This could result in harmful viruses, including the SARS Coronavirus (CoV), being sucked from the sewage system into the home if, for example, there are strong extractor fans working in a family’s bathroom. Fortunately, solutions are simple and already in place in most areas world-wide, but there remain places where short-cuts in design, construction and maintenance continue to compromise safety.”

“While the evidence suggests that, under most circumstances, the spread of SARS among people occurred overwhelmingly across a short range of distance through water droplets, there are specific situations where conditions allowed other transmission routes. One of these is through sewage-associated faecal droplets and this Consultation has, therefore, recommended measures to reduce sewage-borne transmission routes of pathogenic viruses,” added Dr Bartram.

The SARS epidemic in Hong Kong: what lessons have we learned?

A thorough local investigation, conducted by the Department of Health in collaboration with eight other government agencies, then indicated that environmental factors had played an important part in this outbreak. Each block at Amoy Gardens has 8 vertical soil stacks collecting effluent from the equivalent section on all floors. The soil stack is connected to the water closets, the basins, the bathtubs and the bathroom floor drains. Each of these sanitary fixtures is fitted with a U-shaped water trap to prevent foul smells and insects getting into the toilets from the soil stack. Clearly, for this to work, the U-traps must contain water. However, because most households were in the habit of cleaning the bathroom floor by mopping rather than flushing with water, the U-traps connected to most floor drains were probably dry and not functioning properly (Figure 2).


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC539564/figure/fig2/
Open in a separate window
Figure 2
Floor drains at Amoy Gardens
Laboratory studies indicate that many patients with SARS excrete coronavirus in their stools.5 As many as two-thirds of the patients in the Amoy Gardens outbreak had diarrhoea, so a very substantial virus load would have been discharged into the sewerage in Block E. Probably the index patient infected only a small group of Block E residents, with the remainder acquiring the disease via sewage, person-to-person contact and shared communal facilities such as lifts and staircases. These residents subsequently transmitted the disease to others both within and outside Block E through person-to-person contact and environmental contamination.

The bathroom floor drains with dried-up U-traps provided a pathway through which residents came into contact with small droplets containing viruses from the contaminated sewage. These droplets entered the bathroom floor drain through negative pressure generated by exhaust fans when the bathroom was being used with the door closed. Water vapour generated during a shower, and the moist conditions of the bathroom, could also have facilitated the formation of water droplets. The likelihood of exposure was enhanced by the small dimensions of the bathroom units (about 3.5 square metres). Virus-contaminated droplets could readily have been deposited on floor mats, towels, toiletries and other bathroom equipment.

China has extremely shitty infrastructure. Just a few people being infected with a SARS-like virus could easily spread it from room to room through an entire apartment block because of how they construct their buildings. The authorities welded people inside those apartments. The apartments became virus-hives, contaminating and killing hundreds inside.

COVID-19 spreads very rapidly when there are deficiencies in sanitation. India is about to get hit very, very hard with exponential spread of this disease simply because of open defecation and terrible building construction standards. India is actually significantly underreporting deaths and cases and they have no idea how many there actually are.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/30/india-records-worlds-biggest-single-day-jump-in-covid-19-cases/

https://science.thewire.in/health/india-mccd-comorbidities-covid-19-deaths-undercounting/

 

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

I haven't read the whole discussion nor do I intend to, but figuring out how Covid could cause pre-existing conditions is a pretty hard concept. After thinking really hard about it, I think I got it: high-calorie tachyons.

Covid seems to be a vascular and respiratory disease. People with issues related to either heart/blood stuff (hypertension, heart disease, stroke, etc) or respiratory stuff (COPD, etc) are at higher risk due to it.

However, covid also causes things like respiratory failure, renal failure, etc... So if someone gets admitted to the hospital with covid and it progresses to respiratory failure, they'll have both listed on their chart (in most cases; human error does happen).

It's like getting admitted to the hospital after being stabbed. You die from blood loss. Blood loss and stab wound would be on your death certificate, even though it was the stab wound that did it.

 

[UntimelyDhelmise]

Woah what's with the sudden explosion in pages? Did something big happ-

>HHH was summoned

 

[Drain Todger]

COVID-19 has a very significant effect on high-population-density cities. We know this to be the case from New York's statistics.

New York Coronavirus Map and Case Count

A detailed county map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables of the number of cases by county.

www.nytimes.com

At least 12 new coronavirus deaths and 709 new cases were reported in New York on Aug. 30. Over the past week, there have been an average of 624 cases per day, a decrease of 6 percent from the average two weeks earlier.

As of Monday afternoon, there have been at least 438,831 cases and 32,534 deaths in New York since the beginning of the pandemic, according to a New York Times database.

April was basically hell on earth for NYC's medical system. Things have since leveled off.

Also, there has been ongoing analysis of cremation data from China that indicates that they severely undercounted infections and deaths.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200608/Cremation-numbers-reveal-possible-suppression-of-true-COVID-19-data-in-China.aspx

Data on Crematories
Reports from established media show that whereas the eight crematories in Wuhan operated for about 4 hours a day, on average, before the outbreak, and typically in the morning in keeping with Chinese funeral rituals, a change occurred at around January 25, 2020.

At this point, the crematories were found to be operating almost round the clock or at about six times normal levels. If the normal daily mortality is pegged at about 136, for this population of about 9 million, the increased hours of operation would show an excess of about 680 per day above the normal or a total of about 816 deaths a day. It is to be noted that the maximal cremation capacity is reported to be up to 2,100 bodies a day.

Additional cremation staff are reported to have been imported to Wuhan, as well as 40 mobile cremation stations, which were sent into the city from outside from February 19, 2020, to cope with the increasing need for cremation.

A simple linear estimate showed that at 80% utilization from January 25, 2020, to February 6, 2020, and then 100% until February 12, 2020, the cumulative deaths would be above 9,300. With the crude case fatality rate as officially reported, at 3.14%, the cumulative infection would be almost 300,000 in 19 days.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.28.20116012v2

Background: Epidemiological data provide important information for decision making. COVID-19 statistics from China fall outside of recognized and accepted medical norms. As the epicenter of the COVID-19 initial outbreak, the epidemiological information from Wuhan affects the response and preparation of other parts of China and rest of the world. Here we estimated the incidence, death and starting time of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and China based on medical literature from China, official and non-official Chinese data sources. Methods: Data sources included literature on COVID-19 in China, official Chinese government figures, state-run and non state-run media reports. Our estimates are based on investigative media reports of crematory operations in Wuhan, which is considered as a common data end point to life. A range of estimates is presented by an exponential growth rate model from lockdown (Jan 23,2020) until the intervention started to show effects, which was estimated 14.5 days after lockdown. Results: For the cumulative infections and total deaths, under different assumptions of death rates (from 2.5% to 10%) and doubling time 6.4 days, the estimates projected on February 7, 2020 in Wuhan range from 305,000 to 1,272,000 for infections and from 6,811 to 7,223 for deaths - on the order of at least 10 times the official figures (13,603 and 545). The implied starting time of the outbreak is October 2019. Under the assumption of the official 3.14% death rate and doubling time of 2.54 days (which was derived based on Chinese official data), the infection cases reached 2.2 million on February 7. The estimates of cumulative deaths, based on both funeral urns distribution and continuous full capacity operation of cremation services up to March 23, 2020, give results around 36,000, more than 10 times of the official death toll of 2,524. Conclusions: Our study indicates a significant under-reporting in Chinese official data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. The magnitude of discrepancy between our estimates based on cremation related data and Chinese official figures in early February, the critical time for response to the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests the need to reevaluate official statistics from China and consider all available and reasonable data sources for a better understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This pre-print study estimated that there were between 305k and 1.27m infections in Wuhan, and 7,223 deaths, by February 7th. By the end of February, this would have only gotten worse, as those newly infected began to die. It takes 5 days to incubate, 5 to 7 days of flu-like symptoms, and then 10 to 12 days of inflammatory syndrome before someone recovers or dies from COVID-19. The people who died in mid-February in Wuhan had actually been infected 2 to 3 weeks prior.

China's standard practice was to use methylprednisolone and to put people on ventilators. That's actually the wrong treatment. COVID-19 is an airborne vascular endothelial disease. In someone with endotheliitis of the pulmonary vasculature, ventilators will readily cause VILI and turn the lungs into mush.

COVID-19 weakens the vasculature of the lungs. Ventilators stretch the injured blood vessels and cause hemorrhage. This obsession with invasive ventilation actually killed thousands of people in New York. It's far better to treat COVID-19 as a vascular disease rather than a respiratory one.

@eternal dog mongler Would probably be able to confirm this, but I argue the correct treatment is to start a COVID-19 patient off on inhaled interferon beta, particularly the very promising SNG-001 formulation offered by Synairgen. If it gets worse, this should be followed with a high-flow nasal cannula, nitric oxide inhalation, and dexamethasone. Vitamin C and D supplementation would also help.

The ideal prophylaxis is supplementation with Vitamin D, Arginine, Citrulline, NAC, NAD+, and Lactoferrin, especially if someone has pre-existing deficiencies in Vitamin D or dietary nitrate.

With this protocol, I argue that the case fatality rate would be much, much lower.

 

[Standardized Profile]

Covid seems to be a vascular and respiratory disease. People with issues related to either heart/blood stuff (hypertension, heart disease, stroke, etc) or respiratory stuff (COPD, etc) are at higher risk due to it.

However, covid also causes things like respiratory failure, renal failure, etc... So if someone gets admitted to the hospital with covid and it progresses to respiratory failure, they'll have both listed on their chart (in most cases; human error does happen).

It's like getting admitted to the hospital after being stabbed. You die from blood loss. Blood loss and stab wound would be on your death certificate, even though it was the stab wound that did it.

Yeah that's great but it doesn't explain how a disease can bring pre-existing conditions into existence without violating causality. I've seen almost all of Star Trek and I watched Interstellar 3 times, you need tachyons or a black hole for an effect to become its own cause.

 

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That's insane. Hired tutors have existed for thousands of years. How are you supposed to teach advanced topics without a tutor? Hold a five minute class, adjourn for the day, then bring in the tutor for a few hours of after-school coaching?

When it gets to court, what will be the government's rational basis for not letting parents hire tutors for their children?

The argument is, I'm sure, that these "pods" are replacing schools (and tutors replacing licensed teachers) which the cathedral feels are the governments' domain. In reality they consider all education (if not upbringing) of children to be the government's domain, but they can't get away with saying that part out loud yet.

 

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

Yeah that's great but it doesn't explain how a disease can bring pre-existing conditions into existence without violating causality. I've seen almost all of Star Trek and I watched Interstellar 3 times, you need tachyons or a black hole for an effect to become its own cause.

I am not sure where you are getting this idea that covid is bringing pre-existing conditions into existence

 

[DrearyDoomguy]

COVID-19 has a very significant effect on high-population-density cities. We know this to be the case from New York's statistics.

This is a point worth emphasizing. Most states with outbreaks seem to fall within 4-7 hundred deaths per capita when all is said and done, going off of Youyang Gu's modeling, which has been the most on the money of any data science projections so far. But when you go down to the city levels, you start seeing per capita deaths in the 7-900s. New York's per capita was 1700ish, which is ridiculously high; New York City's per capita deaths are nearly three thousand. New Jersey is the only state with worse per capita deaths than New York, and they are the most densely populated state in the entire nation.