2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Good show by People's Pundit (with Barnes Law). Most notable because they spend 30+ minutes shitting on Nate Aluminum, outright calling him a fraud, and going into the history of 538's utter failure at making sports odds. Sounds like it was kicked off by Nate calling out Baris.


"If anyone wants to sue me for calling them a fraud, I'll prove it in court!"

They go into the details of what it takes to do proper election forecasting, not just modeling or poll reading. Shitting on Nate 538 starts around 15 minutes in, but the whole thing is worth listening to.

Video in case people can't access it on YouTube. I was having problems accessing this on Periscope as each time, it would give me an error. For additional information on Minnesota and Pennsylvania, check out this video he just did. I will be keeping track of these videos until we find out who has won.


One thing to keep in mind,

We don't know for sure how unaffiliated voters will vote anywhere. It's good Pennsylvania's Republican registrations is on the rise, but other factors include if Democrats will turn out in higher numbers because of how much they hate Trump and how Independents will vote.

That aside, I am impressed with how thorough Baris is. He combs through the importance of ancestral heritage playing a role on how a group of people may vote as well as voter registration. Plus we received surprising news that the D+9 Minnesota poll has Trump outperforming Biden by thirty-four percents in the Democratic stronghold of the Iron Range and that Trump has made lots of ground in the Twin Cities. As I suspect that the poll is deliberately leaving out results unfavorable to its conclusion, I'd like to chalk this up as yet another sign that Minnesota might turn red.
That's why they don't deserve a raise. They do make great ads, but then those ads aren't getting blasted across battleground states or social media.

Other than the convention week blitzes, I haven't seen any pop up on my accounts where I leave AdBlock off. I haven't seen any IRL either. The sole contact I've had from Republicans were two mediocre anti-Biden flyers in the snail mail. And those were sent by the state GOP, not even the national RNC or Trump campaigns.

Maybe Trump is waiting to blast ads until early voting starts in October. But he's doing great fundraising, and he's got great ads that the normies need to see in the middle of the scandal-a-day strategy the Dems are throwing out. He should be blanketing the ad spaces just to keep up a strong narrative. The election is less than 60 days away, now is not the time to try and be super efficient with the budget.
What if the ad spaces are already taken up by Biden's campaign? I don't get ads since I use Brave, but that's something I thought of. Hopefully Trump can make up this deficit soon.

Bad news is that if Trump tries to blast ads in October when early voting is already starting in places like North Carolina, he will have already missed quite a few potential targets.
These fuckers are trying to make Arizona 2018 look like a fucking joke compared to 2020.
Arizona now has free reign to print out ballots, pick out the president, and turn them in with no verification that the person whose name is on the ballot filled it out.
View attachment 1586393

I'm looking at the livestream numbers and will report back.
I warned people here not to count Arizona out as a potential target and I saw some here do exactly that, even Baris and Barnes to an extent. If Trump gets Arizona, it will be down to the wire. 2018 was a scandalous year when it comes to the Senate election. You can bet they will do whatever they can to repeat it again this year.

Watch Raz0rfist's video called "Mail in Ballots are B.S.". He is from Arizona and can tell you how exactly what happened to turn a +2 R lead for a Senate race in 2018 to +2 Dem in 3 WEEKS of voting AFTER the election date. They are now trying to do it nationwide, and this was a trial run.
With Arizona now in question, the map is less of an easy Trump win with Pennsylvania:
Yellow states are more likely to go to Trump based on past voting preferences, riots, registration, ect.
Without Arizona, he needs 1 more state, or its a meme tie.
View attachment 1586469




So at the start of the speech: Roughly ~186.5k
Now, ~30 minutes after start:
NBC News: 13k
PBS NewsHour: 3.8k
Fox News: 80k
Bloomberg Quicktake: 4.2k
NewsNOW from Fox: 48k
The Hill: 2.6k
Donald J Trump: 4.6k
The Sun: 1k
RSBN: 56k
Detroit Free Press: 320
Total: 213.52K
I'd put Nevada as blue if I'll be honest given that 1) Democrats are underrepresented in polls there and 2) VBM will push it to Biden unless Trump supporters overwhelmingly turn out for him.

I'd also change Arizona to a tan color like Michigan. Personally, my next map will have the state as "Leaning Democrat" even if Trump wins Texas and Florida by as comfortable of a margin as Baris suggest he might.

Also, I guess we'll see what happens with Baris's analysis tomorrow. He said stuff about New Hampshire being anti-war and that helping Trump but I need more detail on that when he speaks. Polling has been shit for Trump, but it's also the least reliable method.
 
The description of that event is weird (archive).

She went to South Florida to meet with black and Jewish leaders... not Hispanic. They met in a university gym, but not one of the big Miami universities (U of Miami, Florida International University); she went to a smaller "historically black college". Her talking points were pulled from just-released Twitter clickbait "scandals", which makes you wonder what the event was going to be without those stories in the news cycle.

She's playing up how bad Covid was in South Florida, and called Trump a racist and murderer. But she's preaching to the choir at that point; who is that designed to win over? Why is she pandering so hard to the voting bloc that's supposed to be an automatic lock for them, instead of trying to fix the losses in the other demographics (including older voters)?

Apparently Biden is going down there on Tuesday, I wonder what the heck he's going to do. If the capable half of their ticket is that useless, what are they going to do with the worse half?
Cuba Norte is never going to flip D, but the Boca crowd could use some shoring up probably
 
Watch Raz0rfist's video called "Mail in Ballots are B.S.". He is from Arizona and can tell you how exactly what happened to turn a +2 R lead for a Senate race in 2018 to +2 Dem in 3 WEEKS of voting AFTER the election date. They are now trying to do it nationwide, and this was a trial run.
With Arizona now in question, the map is less of an easy Trump win with Pennsylvania:
Yellow states are more likely to go to Trump based on past voting preferences, riots, registration, ect.
Without Arizona, he needs 1 more state, or its a meme tie.

Razorfist forgot to mention that Arizona has been one of that states that have a huge early vote turnout which requires mail in ballots and have been doing it for years before this whole controversy happened. Both the democrats and the republicans where pushing it HARD.
 
If I were you I'd check out Broward county's voting numbers. Something's very fucky there. It's why the 2018 gubernatorial results were so protracted, and Hillary 2016 somehow got over 100,000 more votes in that county than Obama 2008, with turnout at 75% each. Rigging's a lot easier in Florida than the Great Lakes because the population of large conurbations is so much bigger--plus Floridian apparatchiks are used to the sly tactics, frankly.

Believe me, I know all about Broward. I was personally affected by Brenda Snipes' electoral cheating. But with a republican governor, things like this can actually be handled properly—or as much as possible, I guess.

She's playing up how bad Covid was in South Florida, and called Trump a racist and murderer. But she's preaching to the choir at that point; who is that designed to win over? Why is she pandering so hard to the voting bloc that's supposed to be an automatic lock for them, instead of trying to fix the losses in the other demographics (including older voters)?

Yeah, the liberal REEEEEing about Florida is a lost cause. Here are the current covid stats:

NewCases0910.jpg

NewHosp0910.jpg


Arguing that Florida, which never really seriously locked down or significantly impeded daily life, is a hellscape ravaged by coronavirus is not a winning argument. Among a certain class of assured Biden voters, sure. But among the rest of us? Nah.
 
Marist: Trump is tied in Florida
What their data says:
View attachment 1587221
>Solid blue parts of the Panhandle
What the fuck are they doing?
Trump must be leading by 3 or something.
I'm calling bullshit too. Ain't no fucking way Biden is winning Duval by 10, Escambia at all or only losing Marion by 5.

Ain't. No. Way.
 
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But their Nate Subatomic Particle's A+ pollster! How could they be wrong?
It's actually really eye opening (and encouraging) to see these polls' breakdown in a state I know well.

Because when I see a poll that has Florida in a dead heat even while spotting Joe Biden twenty points in Marion County, I know we're looking pretty good. Killary lost there 61-35 in 2016. Biden ain't within fifteen points, let alone five.
 
Marist: Trump is tied in Florida
What their data says:
View attachment 1587221
>Solid blue parts of the Panhandle
What the fuck are they doing?
Trump must be leading by 3 or something.
Trump won Duval county last time, and they have Biden ahead well into the double-digits.

Yeah, that's stupid. The county hasn't gone blue since '76.

In Arizona? Yes.

McSally is going to get scammed again. I mean, she probably would have lost regardless, but definitely for sure now. Hopefully Trump can hold on, even if it's by less than a point.
 
Trump won Duval county last time, and they have Biden ahead well into the double-digits.

Yeah, that's stupid. The county hasn't gone blue since '76.


McSally is going to get scammed again. I mean, she probably would have lost regardless, but definitely for sure now. Hopefully Trump can hold on, even if it's by less than a point.
Arizona elected two RINOs who fucked Trump over hard. Jeff Flake and John McCain. Now McCain is dead while a Democrat won the other. Only way McSally is winning is if she runs on the 2nd amendment against that astronaut fuck. Otherwise she is done.
 
NOTE 9/1: DeSantis was informed late Monday that nearly 75,000 results of Quest testing data dating as far back as April would be ingested into the state’s COVID-19 data for Tuesday’s update. Source: Orlando Sentinel.

I can dig up sauces if y'all really need, but basically Local Minute Clinic Shithole Chain dumped 75k results going back six months on the state in one big batch because "whoops we like, uhh... yeah.". The same day FL dumped them as an official test site.
 
After months of seeing Bernie and Trump signs, flags and bumper stickers everywhere I finally saw my first Biden flag. Was a bunch of younger looking guys holding it and taking pictures of it in a McDonald's parking lot at night so not exactly the time or place I'd expect to see one. Not that I think it means anything locally, of course; no way in hell my state or county is flipping Trump (two surrounding counties did go for him in 2016 but that's neither here nor there). I just thought it was interesting this is the first time I've seen any kind of support for Biden in real life.
 
Marist: Trump is tied in Florida
What their data says:
View attachment 1587221
>Solid blue parts of the Panhandle
What the fuck are they doing?
Trump must be leading by 3 or something.
I'm surprised we're now just learning about the county breakdown and not when I first brought it up. If I had to guess why the map looks the way it does, it's because the white population went further blue at 56% statewide rather than 62% in 2016. The plurality of Hispanics going for Trump in a hypothetical election doesn't help him much outside Miami-Dade County and Osceola County. He's just lucky that Miami-Dade happens to be the most populous county in the state and he can draw enough votes for a potential victory.

Then again, I also think white performance will be better than what the Marist describes here. It's still being nicer to Trump than most polls which gives Biden the advantage. Duval County will likely break for Biden but it won't be double digits.
 
If I were you I'd check out Broward county's voting numbers. Something's very fucky there. It's why the 2018 gubernatorial results were so protracted, and Hillary 2016 somehow got over 100,000 more votes in that county than Obama 2008, with turnout at 75% each. Rigging's a lot easier in Florida than the Great Lakes because the population of large conurbations is so much bigger--plus Floridian apparatchiks are used to the sly tactics, frankly.
Broward is a wretched hive of scum and villainy. Back in 2016 there was a lot of sketchiness surrounding it, I wish I had the videos saved, it's probably all memoryholed. If anyone has any such clips, let me know and I'll definitely grab 'em now.
 
Marist: Trump is tied in Florida
What their data says:
View attachment 1587221
>Solid blue parts of the Panhandle
What the fuck are they doing?
Trump must be leading by 3 or something.
Tallahassee area is solid blue, though. It's college area and heavily black.

It's a strange map because fairly well populated areas like Jacksonville and St. Augustine are 25%+ more blue from 2016 and no way Pensacola is blue. You'd think there's no excuse for poor polling there...
 
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