Good show by People's Pundit (with Barnes Law). Most notable because they spend 30+ minutes shitting on Nate Aluminum, outright calling him a fraud, and going into the history of 538's utter failure at making sports odds. Sounds like it was kicked off by Nate calling out Baris.
"If anyone wants to sue me for calling them a fraud, I'll prove it in court!"
They go into the details of what it takes to do proper election forecasting, not just modeling or poll reading. Shitting on Nate 538 starts around 15 minutes in, but the whole thing is worth listening to.
Video in case people can't access it on YouTube. I was having problems accessing this on Periscope as each time, it would give me an error. For additional information on Minnesota and Pennsylvania, check out this video he just did. I will be keeping track of these videos until we find out who has won.
One thing to keep in mind,
We don't know for sure how unaffiliated voters will vote anywhere. It's good Pennsylvania's Republican registrations is on the rise, but other factors include if Democrats will turn out in higher numbers because of how much they hate Trump and how Independents will vote.
That aside, I am impressed with how thorough Baris is. He combs through the importance of ancestral heritage playing a role on how a group of people may vote as well as voter registration. Plus we received surprising news that
the D+9 Minnesota poll has Trump outperforming Biden by
thirty-four percents in the Democratic stronghold of the Iron Range and that Trump has made lots of ground in the Twin Cities. As I suspect that the poll is deliberately leaving out results unfavorable to its conclusion, I'd like to chalk this up as yet another sign that Minnesota might turn red.
That's why they don't deserve a raise. They do make great ads, but then those ads aren't getting blasted across battleground states or social media.
Other than the convention week blitzes, I haven't seen any pop up on my accounts where I leave AdBlock off. I haven't seen any IRL either. The sole contact I've had from Republicans were two mediocre anti-Biden flyers in the snail mail. And those were sent by the state GOP, not even the national RNC or Trump campaigns.
Maybe Trump is waiting to blast ads until early voting starts in October. But he's doing great fundraising, and he's got great ads that the normies need to see in the middle of the scandal-a-day strategy the Dems are throwing out. He should be blanketing the ad spaces just to keep up a strong narrative. The election is less than 60 days away, now is not the time to try and be super efficient with the budget.
What if the ad spaces are already taken up by Biden's campaign? I don't get ads since I use Brave, but that's something I thought of. Hopefully Trump can make up this deficit soon.
Bad news is that if Trump tries to blast ads in October when early voting is already starting in places like North Carolina, he will have already missed quite a few potential targets.
These fuckers are trying to make Arizona 2018 look like a fucking joke compared to 2020.
Arizona now has free reign to print out ballots, pick out the president, and turn them in with no verification that the person whose name is on the ballot filled it out.
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I'm looking at the livestream numbers and will report back.
I warned people here not to count Arizona out as a potential target and I saw some here do exactly that, even Baris and Barnes to an extent. If Trump gets Arizona, it will be down to the wire. 2018 was a scandalous year when it comes to the Senate election. You can bet they will do whatever they can to repeat it again this year.
Watch Raz0rfist's video called "
Mail in Ballots are B.S.". He is from Arizona and can tell you how exactly what happened to turn a +2 R lead for a Senate race in 2018 to +2 Dem in 3 WEEKS of voting AFTER the election date. They are now trying to do it nationwide, and this was a trial run.
With Arizona now in question, the map is less of an easy Trump win with Pennsylvania:
Yellow states are more likely to go to Trump based on past voting preferences, riots, registration, ect.
Without Arizona, he needs 1 more state, or its a meme tie.
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So at the start of the speech: Roughly ~186.5k
Now, ~30 minutes after start:
NBC News: 13k
PBS NewsHour: 3.8k
Fox News: 80k
Bloomberg Quicktake: 4.2k
NewsNOW from Fox: 48k
The Hill: 2.6k
Donald J Trump: 4.6k
The Sun: 1k
RSBN: 56k
Detroit Free Press: 320
Total: 213.52K
I'd put Nevada as blue if I'll be honest given that 1) Democrats are underrepresented in polls there and 2) VBM will push it to Biden unless Trump supporters overwhelmingly turn out for him.
I'd also change Arizona to a tan color like Michigan. Personally, my next map will have the state as "Leaning Democrat" even if Trump wins Texas and Florida by as comfortable of a margin as Baris suggest he might.
Also, I guess we'll see what happens with Baris's analysis tomorrow. He said stuff about New Hampshire being anti-war and that helping Trump but I need more detail on that when he speaks. Polling has been shit for Trump, but it's also the least reliable method.
