Or that Republicans are actually listening to what Trump is saying and waiting to vote in person. Trump has been warning of mail-in fraud consistently and has taken action to prevent universal mail-in ballots. Even if Republicans perform low among mail ballots, that doesn't mean they won't turn out for Trump in-person by an even larger number where they can be sure it actually went through.
Not saying Trump will win for sure, but that doesn't mean much.
Trump still has to give it all he's got to eek out that narrow win. Remember how close 2016 was as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all went for him by less than 1%.
I'm feeling good on Maine 2nd Congressional District, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Florida, and Georgia going to Trump which along with all of the solid red states (which I now consider Texas after the news Trump is beating Biden with Hispanics in Florida according to the Florida Martis poll which has him tied with Biden) puts him at 248 electoral votes. He then needs two or three of Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan, he can recover by keeping Arizona and Wisconsin while also flipping Minnesota. If he wins either Pennsylvania or Michigan, he only needs one more of Arizona, Minnesota, and Wisconsin to win. Should he somehow get Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, which I suspect will be a Biden flip, that gives him more breathing room where he can barely squeak by with Minnesota/Wisconsin and one of Arizona, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.
Trump will lose in a 269-269 split. The Democrats control the House and they will elect Biden. He has to get to 270. Don't be surprised if Biden is banking on a Nebraska CD 2 flip.