2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Stoneheart]

Trump should have an event in Maryland. Klacik is on fire and he could pressure Biden alot with a big rally with huge black turnout.

 

[StarkRavingMad]

So now the National Guard is good again apparently.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ny-governor-cuomo-national-guard-election-day

This is actually a good thing ... Even though Cuomo still remains a piece of shit and even though he should have deployed them months ago.

I plan to do the early voting thing this year because I'm actually scared about the violent stunts that people will try to pull on those who go out to vote on Election Day. The media has all but literally said that "anyone who votes in person is going to vote Trump," which has practically placed a target on many, many people.

Trump should have an event in Maryland. Klacik is on fire and he could pressure Biden alot with a big rally with huge black turnout.

Because I have history in the state of Maryland, I completely agree that this is what Trump should do. Prince George's and Baltimore have basically been the counties that have turned MD into the blue state it is today. There are MANY red pockets in Maryland, but PG and Baltimore just swallow them up almost every election cycle. It's a miracle that MD has a Republican Governor right now.

 

[CrippleThreat]

‘It’s a big, big swing’: Trump loses ground with white voters (archive)

The president is running well behind his 2016 pace with the demographic that sent him to the White House.

Donald Trump is making modest inroads with Latinos. Polls suggest he’s pulling slightly more Black support than in 2016.

But the president is tilting at the margins with those groups. His bigger problem is the demographic that sent him to the White House — white voters, whose embrace of Trump appears to be slipping in critical, predominantly white swing states.

In Minnesota, where the contest between Trump and Joe Biden had seemed to tighten in recent weeks — and where both candidates stumped on Friday — a CBS News/YouGov survey last week had Trump running 2 percentage points behind Biden with white voters, after carrying them by 7 points in 2016. Even among white voters without college degrees — Trump’s base — the president was far short of the margin he had against Hillary Clinton.

It’s the same story in Wisconsin, where Trump won noncollege-educated white women by 16 percentage points four years ago but is now losing them by 9 percentage points, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. In Pennsylvania, Biden has now pulled even with Trump among white voters, according to an NBC News/Marist Poll.
In 2016, white voters cast over 80 percent of the vote in each of the three states, according to exit polls.

“It’s a big, big swing,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “What [Biden’s] doing among whites is more than offsetting the slippage among nonwhites … The recipe is very different this time, right now anyway, in terms of white voters.”

It’s possible the focus on Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s replacement will help Trump, reminding voters who have drifted away from him what they cared about in 2016. Four years ago, one in five voters — many of them white, social conservatives — said Supreme Court appointments were the most important factor in their vote.

But Trump is working from a disadvantage this year. There are relatively few undecided voters left to persuade. Democrats are also highly energized about the Supreme Court. And Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the court one month before the midterm elections two year ago did nothing to stop Democrats from steamrolling Trump and the GOP.

The erosion of Trump’s white support — and its significance to the November outcome — was never more obvious than in Trump’s messaging in recent days. Last week, he called for the creation of a commission to promote “patriotic education,” while dismissing “critical race theory” and the 1619 project of The New York Times Magazine. At a rally in Mosinee, Wis., he lit into Kamala Harris — the first major party woman of color vice presidential nominee — lamenting the possibility of her becoming president “through the back door.”

On Friday, he released a TV ad in Minnesota and Michigan lashing into Biden for supporting increased refugee admissions, including from “the most unstable, vulnerable, dangerous parts of the world.” Then, before an overwhelmingly white crowd in Bemidji, Minn., Trump mocked Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) — the first Somali-American in Congress and a former refugee — and said Biden would “turn Minnesota into a refugee camp.”

He praised Minnesotans for their “good genes.”

But Trump’s rhetoric does not appear to be resonating with white America to the degree it did in 2016. That year, whites cast nearly three-quarters of the vote nationally, and Trump won those voters by about 15 percentage points, according to Pew Research. Four years later, Biden has torn into that advantage, though to what degree is uncertain. The latest Morning Consult poll showed Trump now beating Biden among white likely voters nationally by just 5 percentage points. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll on Sunday put Trump up among white voters by 9 percentage points, while a PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll on Friday showed Biden and Trump essentially tied with white voters.

Anywhere in that range is a problem for Trump. It is a major reason why Biden, despite underperforming with voters of color, is still running ahead nationally.

“Suburban whites are pretty much gone” for Trump, said Ed Rendell, the former Pennsylvania governor and former chair of the Democratic National Committee. And Biden is far less objectionable to many working-class whites than Clinton, a more polarizing nominee whose favorability ratings were lower than Biden’s.

“If Trump loses Pennsylvania by 4 or 5 points,” Rendell said, “then the suburbs and the working-class whites, that accounts for the loss.”

Trump is doing better with whites in some states than others. In North Carolina, he is drawing noncollege-educated white voters at about the same levels he was in 2016. But in other states, including some with sizable populations of people of color, he is underperforming with whites. In Florida, Trump is running ahead of Biden with white voters 56 percent to 39 percent, according to a Monmouth University poll. But that is far short of the 32 percentage-point margin he posted in 2016. In Arizona, he has seen his 14-point edge with white voters in 2016 cut as well.

It wasn’t always clear Trump would have any problem with white voters — or that he would be making gains with people of color. Even in the midterm elections, when suburbanites recoiled from Trump and Democrats retook the House, Republicans carried the white vote nationally by about 10 percentage points.

But white voters have not proved immune to the damage inflicted on Trump by the coronavirus and its resulting economic wreckage, which have been a drag on Trump’s reelection campaign since spring. In particular, the pandemic appears to have hurt Trump with seniors, including older white voters concerned about both their retirement accounts and their health.

“It’s these older white voters that I think are the ones that are moving” away from Trump, said Jeff Link, a veteran Iowa-based Democratic strategist who has studied voters who turned from Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. “The older people are like, ‘What the f--- is this guy doing?'”

Earlier this year, Trump appeared to have an opening to recapture white support. Following the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis — and the ensuing protests across the country — Trump pivoted to a law-and-order campaign, with overt appeals to suburban whites. But the effort has largely fallen flat, with numerous polls suggesting the turmoil was doing little to improve Trump’s prospects.

And the issue that motivated many white voters in 2016 — immigration, amplified by Trump’s promise to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border — has all but fallen out of view. During his successful presidential campaign, 13 percent of voters ranked immigration as the most important issue facing the country. Last month, immigration barely registered at 2 percent in Gallup’s survey of the most important problems facing the country.

Pat McCrory, the former Republican governor of North Carolina, said he has been “very surprised” that the Trump campaign has not leaned more heavily into immigration, particularly around Biden’s past statements about health care for undocumented immigrants.

But with the coronavirus and months of civil unrest on the electorate’s mind, “the two moving factors [in the election] may be the violence and the virus: The two V’s. Both parties are throwing ads and mail out on those two issues.” McCrory said, “There does seem to be a little flip” between Biden and Trump, with Biden courting working-class whites and Trump “actually trying to go after the Black vote, and the Hispanic vote.”

Appearing at a town hall last week in his childhood home of Scranton, Pa., a city that is more than 80 percent white, Biden cited his “Scranton roots” in an appeal to the working class, saying he was accustomed to people deriding those “who look at us and think that we're suckers, look at us and they think that we don't — we're not equivalent to them.”

Not only do public safety-based appeals appear to be faltering for Trump, white voters “still really care about pocketbook issues, and that is the underlying issue that drives their vote,” said Zak Williams, a Democratic mail strategist based in Duluth, Minn., near where Biden campaigned Friday.

“College-educated white voters were the first group that moved away from him,” Williams said, and now Trump is “starting to drive away noncollege-educated white voters,” too.

At the center of Trump’s reelection math has always been the expectation that he could turn out more white, noncollege-educated voters in 2020 than he did in 2016, squeezing more juice from a diminishing base. Nick Trainer, the Trump campaign's director of battleground strategy, said "the vast majority of polls are oversampling Democrats and are relying on an outdated sampling formula."

Trainer acknowledged Trump "has room to improve his numbers with certain voters, including suburban women and voters who disliked both candidate Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016." However, he said "sustained preelection attacks on issues we know these voters care about will hurt Joe Biden and boost President Trump."

Even if the result is a margin of victory with noncollege-educated white voters that is smaller than it was four years ago, Trump will almost certainly carry that group. And if he can turn them out in greater numbers, he could shift the electorate toward him in several predominantly white states. Republicans and Democrats alike estimate there are hundreds of thousands of unregistered, noncollege-educated whites in key swing states that Trump could still pick up.

That fight for those voters was on display in Minnesota on Friday, where Trump and Biden appeared not in the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs, but in more culturally conservative, northern reaches of the state. Republicans there and in some of the whitest counties in the country say they haven’t seen any falloff for Trump, and many of them suspect that polls are still underrepresenting his support.

Stephanie Soucek, chair of the Republican Party in Wisconsin’s Door County said she sees more Trump signs in her county than she did in 2016. Jack Brill, acting chair of the local Republican Party in Sarasota County, Fla., said “the base in Sarasota County is as strong as ever.”

In Duluth, the target of much attention from the Trump campaign, the city’s former mayor, Gary Doty, acknowledged that the president may have shed some support among some white women because of “the way he presents himself. He’s sometimes crude and rude, and I don’t care for that style.”

However, he said, “I think there’s this silent group of people” who support Trump and will turn out for him.

Doty said that after he endorsed Trump recently, “people that wouldn’t talk to me about politics … after they heard I had supported the Trump ticket, would come say, ‘Hey, I’m for him, too.'"

 

[StarkRavingMad]

‘It’s a big, big swing’: Trump loses ground with white voters (archive)

If true, then white guilt is one HELL of a drug.

 

[FAQnews Correspondent]

Trump is at 45 (ironically enough, why the fuck is this number popping up everywhere?

View attachment 1612707

Mexicans already have a girl on the Supreme Court

Sotomayor's Puerto Rican.

 

[Harvey Danger]

I plan to do the early voting thing this year because I'm actually scared about the violent stunts that people will try to pull on those who go out to vote on Election Day. The media has all but literally said that "anyone who votes in person is going to vote Trump," which has practically placed a target on many, many people.

That's the reason I'm going to vote on Election Day itself this year.

The 4th Estate's 5th Column is cordially invited to fuck around and find out.

 

[FunPosting101]

‘It’s a big, big swing’: Trump loses ground with white voters (archive)

In other words, "polls say a thing part 2, actual boogaloo this time potentially". Needless to say, I'm not at all convinced that these polls are accurate, the Dems have been doing everything in their power to come across as the "kill whitey" party, and I find it doubtful that they have more white support now then they did in 2016.

 

[tehpope]

Someone in the RBG Happening thread said the Dems are walking back vote by mail. Is this true?

 

[CrippleThreat]

In other words, "polls say a thing part 2, actual boogaloo this time potentially". Needless to say, I'm not at all convinced that these polls are accurate, the Dems have been doing everything in their power to come across as the "kill whitey" party, and I find it doubtful that they have more white support now then they did in 2016.

Trump's old guard from 2016 might all still come out, but the polls are probably being skewed by people who do not want to incur the wrath of TDSers and SocJus mobs, or they are abrasive types to just say "Fuck off, I don't reveal that info."

 

[StarkRavingMad]

Trump's old guard from 2016 might all still come out, but the polls are probably being skewed by people who do not want to incur the wrath of TDSers and SocJus mobs, or they are abrasive types to just say "Fuck off, I don't reveal that info."

Or maybe, just maybe, Hillary Clinton was just that unlikable back in 2016 that the white people just stayed home and are more willing to vote for Joe this time around. Remember: turnout was pretty bad in 2016.

Granted, I see even less appeal with Dementia Joe compared to Hillary at this point (ain't that terrifying?), but normies are going to normie ... Much to our dismay.

Or, you know, the polls this time around are truly even bigger bullshit than the ones from 2016. All bets are off with this election, because 2020 is going to 2020 ... Much to our dismay.

 

[GuntPunt]

‘It’s a big, big swing’: Trump loses ground with white voters (archive)

I'm doubting that, but not for the reasons stated. Trump is overpreforming in several counties that essentially show the electorate of the states as a whole. Trump is exceeding his margins Macomb MI and Erie PA, showing a positive swing from white working class voters. Its a different coalition, but not necessarily a weaker one.

Rally schedules this week:


Also, Nevada Dems are scared like Michigan Dems because no ground game.

 

[MrJokerRager]

All they do is lie. They still peddle the insane lie that he called white supremacists "very fine people". That's why more and more people are tuning news media and Hollywood out.

To be fair, that part where he condemns the nazis, he said in such a low voice that I had to raise the volume when I revisited that press conference that he did. Also he isn't an orator, which works against him.

 

[CrippleThreat]

Rally schedules this week:
View attachment 1613022

Yeah, Politico's Politico and polls are bs. I mean look at this, six of these guys rallying all week, covering their bases and battlegrounds hard (Eric's even in Arizona should to keep the influence). And if I can make an influential tier list via rallies:

Spoiler: Pretty Shitty Tier List

S: Don Sr.
A: Don Jr. and Eric
B: Pence (he focuses mostly on the hard blue collar workers, rather than the general Trump base, but I might be downplaying him)
C: Ivanka (might be downplaying also)
D: Lara and the rest

And I'm proabably discounting the brave folks doing marching parades, boat parades, and door knocks. There's also the vast sales of merch and the fact that YouTube is full of pro-Trump pundits over the (lol pro-Biden) liberal ones.

Trump's official channel even has million subs, and including the Team Trump channel, as well as the GOP War Room, Silicon Valley doesn't rule the world...yet...

 

[JosephStalin]

If true, then white guilt is one HELL of a drug.

Believe it's bullshit. I believe what I see, the caravans and parades, the huge crowds at rallies, the huge lines patiently waiting to get in, and my Amazon Poll. If it came from the mainstream media, it's just left-leaning lies.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Believe it's bullshit. I believe what I see, the caravans and parades, the huge crowds at rallies, the huge lines patiently waiting to get in, and my Amazon Poll. If it came from the mainstream media, it's just left-leaning lies.

If Trump loses, I am going to choose the rigged election option. Bernie made more momentum than Biden and Hillary in the 2020 and 2016 primaries with the crowd sizes and all and still lost. But still I can't think of any presidential candidate or incumbent losing after having such giant momentum.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

Remember guys, their unstated goal is to make the polls and everything look close enough so that any rigging is plausible.

You'll never see another expected landslide again, they will actively do whatever they can to make it 50 / 50%, because it's a whole lot easier to hit 50/50 and rig 1% than 60/40 and rig 11%.

 

[GuntPunt]

Someone in the RBG Happening thread said the Dems are walking back vote by mail. Is this true?

Someone I found explained it well:

Under normal circumstances emphasizing mail-in ballots over in-person voting is a suicidal election strategy because huge numbers of your voters either don't request a ballot, don't fill it out properly, or don't send it in time. Winning purely on mail-in ballots only works when actions like "ballot harvesting" are legal along with each state sending every voter on the rolls a ballot with a prepaid envelope completely unsolicited. This is because the primary way votes are manufactured is by taking the official prepaid envelopes, putting a ballot in them, then dropping them all off. Preferably at many locations spread out so at to not be so obvious (this was why the Democrats flipped out over USPS mail boxes being removed, despite everyone having their own address and also being able to use the post office). The actual ballot is trivial to fake, what isn't are the prepaid envelopes so they need lots of those sent out.

The Democrat's plan was to hold the massive covid relief bill hostage, force the scared Republican senators to give them everything they want, and this included the legalization of ballot harvesting at the federal level and a mandate for each state to send a ballot to each person on the voter rolls. Trump completely screwed them by using his executive orders and giving the Republican senate more time. Right now instead of every state, only a few Democrat-controlled ones have the necessary measures in place, and even in some of those like Michigan and Pennsylvania have lawsuits being brought by the Republican party.

So this is how you get catastrophic situations like that in North Carolina, where the Democrats just spent the year telling their voter base to stay home and vote by mail, almost no one is requesting a ballot, and a full quarter of their voters can't even fill out the ballot properly leading them to being rejected. It is so bad that the Democrats have flipped 180° and are scrambling to tell their voters to vote in-person.

To add insult to injury, some states like PA are giving out warnings because their mail-in voting methods are not necessarily straightforward. We might win states on the principle that people are too stupid or demotivated to vote by mail.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Someone I found explained it well:


To add insult to injury, some states like PA are giving out warnings because their mail-in voting methods are not necessarily straightforward. We might win states on the principle that people are too stupid or demotivated to vote by mail.
View attachment 1613182

I dont understand why won't the democrats push for making election day a national holiday?

They could have done it under Obama to make it easier for niggers, college students and working class minorities to vote for them.

 

[Someone Awful]

New "What Are The Odds?" video by Baris and Barnes. They discuss The Epoch Times poll and how the Supreme Court nominee might affect the election. Here's what I got,

• Barnes considers Ohio rock solid, Iowa pretty safe, Minnesota leaning red, and Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin competitive
• If Nevada ends up with less absurd VBM rules, he will bet on Nevada too
• Baris has Ohio up by 8% for Trump while Iowa is more like 3%.
• Barnes believes that as Norwegians are anti-war, all the way back to World War I, that they will help carry Minnesota and maybe Wisconsin
• Baris and Barnes are confident St. Louis County, Minnesota will go to Trump
• Bucks County, Pennsylvania has Trump up by a point or two compared to Biden, a county Clinton carried
• Erie County, Pennsylvania is breaking for Trump by sixteen points, a county that flipped by only 2.4% last election
• Macomb County and Monroe County, Michigan are doing better for Trump than last year in a county with "Obama nostalgia" with the automobile industry bailout during the Obama administration
• Trump polls at 19% among black in the Rust Belt, 20% in Pennsylvania
• Trump polls at 34.9% among Hispanics in the Rust Belt
• Trump polls at 41.5% among Asians
• Trump polls at 52% among whites

Thoughts on Supreme Court Nominee

• Despite hints that Amy Barrett might be the nomination, both Baris and Barnes are predicting a Barbara Lagoa nomination due to Trump making a head fake
• Baris and Barnes do not want Barrett as they believe she will be a more extreme Roberts
• Bad optics with Barrett will make her acceptance very unlikely due to how northern working class voters don't want an overly religious Catholic judge
• Baris and Barnes want Lagoa
• They predict Lagoa would lock Florida down by turning Cuban voters blood red and possibly increase Hispanic turnout
• Lagoa ruled against felons being allowed to vote in Florida
• Lagoa is the no brainer choice as it would get virtue signalling Republicans in the Senate like Romney to vote for her
• She is a pro-family choice that was easily voted into the Florida Supreme Court
• Baris leaked from a very reliable source that Biden does have a list but they're two black woman from California, one of which is a radical

I'm going to hope the hints at Barrett being the nominee is a fake out so we don't risk being rejected a nine seat Senate when Democrats try to push for voting electoral frauds. Though that makes me wonder, if Benny Johnson is so confident Barrett is going to be Trump's nominee, why did he also leak that Mitch McConnell had the fifty votes necessary to proceed with her?

If Lagoa is the nominee and she gets confirmation, I will make changes on my map that reflects a higher electoral vote count for Trump. Her confirmation could be a game changer in ways people are not expecting.

 

[GuntPunt]

This is why Canadian teenagers should stick to being irrelevant instead of poll reading and American politics. They make Nate Aluminum look competent.

Archive
Did some math, this map is Biden +~18. This means a margin similar to 1984's Reagan landslide. What the fuck.

I dont understand why won't the democrats push for making election day a national holiday?

They could have done it under Obama to make it easier for niggers, college students and working class minorities to vote for them.

Because foresight is something Democrats lack currently.