- Joined
- Jun 18, 2018
Oh shit, I forgot you even live in NYC. I heard it might be Ground Zero for potential chimpouts after 8/4/2020. Then again, you live in Queens, correct? I used to work in Manhattan a long time ago, but I don't think I really went to Queens very often, so I don't know what the current demographics are like. I remember a lot of Asians and Mexicans from what I saw, but those two groups aren't the kinds to go full Planet of the Apes in the event of riots.
currently I'm a college student taking multiple physics and math classes, none of my classmates so far have told me they support Biden. One is this Orthodox Christian Russian American kid who considers himself a moderate but is anti-BLM and seems generally right leaning (I guess 'moderate' is still the right word). Voting for Trump for his first ever vote.
Another is a hispanic (or filipino, not sure) who is with Trump. He talked about taking this one class called 'political controversies' where the professor unfairly picked on him for his beliefs. None of our physics professors talk about politics though.
And there is this one girl who I thought could be for Biden given certain things about her(for privacy's sake I won't elaborate on this much - basically you'd normally assume she's a feminist lefty based on certain surface level things), but is leaning third party BUT also seems like she could be swayed to Trump based on certain things (won't elaborate much, one of the factors is anti-lockdown sentiment).
Keep in mind these are physics majors though, not a representative sample of Queens by any means.
Oh and I've had multiple people who consider themselves people who don't know much about politics who have asked me about my opinions because some of them will be voting for the first time (mainly young zoomers aged 18-21 who you'd think should be anti-drumpf because it's NYC). The fact that they aren't already TDS patients (some of them even have demeanors that would make you think they're left leaning) says something to me.
All in all, even Trump's deep blue hometown that hasn't gone Republican since Nixon's landslide in 1972 isn't this 100% "we hate drumpf because we know him the best" place as the libs might want to claim.
I'm talking about extrapolating from results on election night when votes actually start getting counted, not the results we have right now where all we know is party affiliation and the counties.- Miami-Dade County's Hispanics are dominated by Cubans that were a solid red block for Republicans, then gradually turned purple and then turned back red for Trump due to new immigrants. These new immigrants also contain Venezuelans and Columbians who are also solid red. But most other Hispanics groups are still mostly Democratic voters, which is why Hillsborough is becoming bluer. Puerto Ricans are one of the most reliable Democratic voting Hispanic voting block and is why the Tampa Bay area is no longer a bellwether. Given that Florida has a low Mexican population, it's not indicative of how Hispanics will vote in Texas and Western US states. Not to say that a shift couldn't be happening now among Mexicans that are not immigrants (Barnes brought up in the Arizona's "What Are The Odds" that Independent working-class Mexicans might be voting Trump), but formulating a reliable or even purple voting block for Republicans takes time, something they won't have if Trump loses. Which is one of the reasons why Trump needs to win, we can't expect anyone else to reform the GOP into a populist party like he is trying to do.
- Duval and Orange County widen out the Biden advantage by 4.6% and 4.28% respectively in early voting. I get that most of it was mail in ballot (not by much though), but that should indicate Duval is flipping and Orange County will become bluer. I know this website says a 5% Biden advantage or less is excellent for Trump, but I can't help but feel that's a narrative spin that Trump will win Florida easily rather than it be a competitive race where he ends up winning 2-3%.
- Are we sure about that? Pasco has barely improved when it comes to advantage although the others have improved by a few percentage. We need to see turnout on Election Day first before we jump to the conclusion that Trump's performance in Pasco, Hernando, Sumter, and Citrus means he will do better in the Midwest (although it is true, we should watch for them to see how they vote). The only reason why I made such a big deal analyzing the Miami-Dade county was because 1) it was to find the closest thing to proof of Trump winning over more Hispanic votes in general (especially Cubans) and 2) shows that even you assume a beyond Obama-level enthusiasm turnout for Biden in the county by giving him 95% of the Democratic vote, 15% of the Republican vote, and 57.5% of Independents that he has lost too many votes there to make it up in the rest of the state. Doing a similar breakdown in other counties with similar rigging against Trump likely would not show as much.
There's the possibility that Trump is doing better with Dems/Indies in FL than expected and therefore even does better in places like Duval/Orange (and all other counties as well) once we actually start counting votes on election night.