2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Jarolleon said:
Are there many lefties who show up to Trump rallies for the same reason that trolls watch DSP, because they want a "front row seat to the trainwreck"?
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No, because they would be subject to a "superspreader" event meme that the MSM has been preaching for weeks. These are genuinely curious people to Trump supporters.
 
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Look at this Argent video. It's a lazier but more recent version of Academic Agent's look at early voting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-AFVQlmp-k
https://archive.vn/h47Hj


One thing that struck out to me is this

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=PresBS&demo=Modeled Party&demo_val=All
https://archive.vn/wip/7eIDD
1604258495362.png



The Republicans have just edged ahead in battleground states for President.

Since early voting is Democrat-heavy and voting on the day is likely to be Republican-heavy it's interesting that the Republicans are ahead already. Another interesting thing is that the Republican vote is unchanged but the Democrat vote is down from 46.2% in 2016 to 44.9% now.

That seems to me to be very significant.

Also look at the Battleground : Senate votes

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=SenateBS&demo=Modeled Party&demo_val=All
https://archive.vn/wip/0vMeo
1604258523833.png



That looks to me like the Republicans are already ahead in the battleground states for the Senate and once again most people think early voting will be dominated by Democrats and voting on the day will be dominated by Republicans. In all races you can see the Democrats start out ahead but their advantage drops with time

1604258194619.png



1604258223630.png
 
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Michael Jacks0n said:
If you want to see a great contemporary microcosm for this theory, look no further than the Occupy Wall Street movements. The movement started as a general protest for people to be angry at big banks, which although was mainly young leftists, it also included lolbertarians and Tea Party neocons who hated Obama and the establishment. Within time, however, radical left wing anarchists joined their movement (to the surprise of nobody), and because the movement had no solid leadership nor established mission statement, the Marxists placed themselves in charge. In doing so they seized control of the supplies, the living quarters [tents], made their own set of rules, and purged anyone who wasn't radical enough.

Hell, let's look at the Women's March: it was supposed to be humans with vaginas joining in solidarity of bitching about Hillary's loss, but what the media tried to ignore was how the marches were also self-segregated; radical groups refused to allow normie libs women to march with them, PoC women refused to march with white women, and Muslim women refused to march with Christian women. Imagine a legitimate Civil War 2.0: the left wing faction would spend the whole time arguing with each other over how many colors should be added to their new flag and what order they should be in. Joggers would bitch and get violent if the black and brown bars were below white, fags would throw tantrums and rebel if the colors weren't representitive of the whole LGBTQ+ spectrum, anarchists would argue that the flag is too colorful and not black enough, and you'd have freak troons complaining that additional colors are to be added for new genders. Meanwhile the right wing army would just use the regular American flag as their symbol and call it a day, everyone's happy.
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To draw yet again more parrallels (because it seems for a change the UK is six months ahead of the US for political trends in the 2020s...

Labour is currently descending into a protacted civil war as the moderates try to rally and purge the corbynites that took over the party in the last four years.

Just recently, the government passed a law to protect the ID's of undercover police and state intelligence officers. This means that if they feel they will have their ID's exposed and thus put themselves at risk of injury or death, they can use whatever means necessary to keep said ID secret and safe.

The current Labour leader ordered an abstention on the law, meaning that while they might object they knew they didn't have the numbers to stop it and it'd stop an embarrassing defeat for the party.

Instead, a bunch of the corbynites he kept on side while trying to destroy the wider movement supporting them have resigned from the front bench in order to strut and puff their chests. Meaning they're now more dangerous in a back bench capacity rather than in a collective responsibility where they can make idiotic statements and fling peanuts at anyone they like in the house.

The wider Corbynite movement however, now its lost Magic Grandpa is fracturing, with at least two new groups growing out of the original "momentum" movement, with Forward Momentum, and the remains of the main momentum movement staggering about blindly punching each other.

You can expect similar from the Dems in the coming years if/when they lose bigly.
 
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CrippleThreat said:
Let's hope for Pence/Cruz ticket against an AOC/??? ticket. That would be great for map predictions.
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Pence/Cruz would have to be called the Ying/Yang ticket, because only by having true good and true evil can there be real balance in the White House....

Personally I find it a shame Gowdy just wanted to serve as a good ole north carolina boy rather than making a press on the white house. His delivery and moments of thought in the House were always a joy to watch.
 
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Truthboi said:
I decided to experiment a bit on how states will be called on election night, and I looked at 538 for their projections on how many votes will be counted. While 538 is garbage at their polls this I feel could be more accurate. I used 270towin to then simulate which states will be called on election night and which ones are taking awhile to count as most of the vote won't be counted in certain states. For the ones where most of the vote will be counted on election night or all the votes counted, I decided to make them likely or lean for most of the votes on which candidate I feel will win the state while for the states with all the votes counted I marked them as safe.

Yellow = Less than most of the votes will be counted on election night
Likely or Leans Red/Blue = States where most of the vote will be counted
Safe Red/Blue = All the votes counted
Toss-Up: Michigan and Wisconsin where most of the votes will be counted but I am unsure who will win them

View attachment 1699851

While it may be biased of me to put NH as a leaning towards Trump state it's due to how the gap between Trump and Clinton was in 2016 as well as how Biden did very poorly in the democrat primary in that state where he only made fifth place. Maine's Second District is due to more Trump enthusiasm, but it could swing to Biden so I should've put it to leans like I did with Iowa.

Minnesota is likely going for Biden as the state never went red since 1972 and even sided with Mondale in 1984's Reagan landslide (though it probably factored more to the homefield advantage Mondale had).

At this point I believe Florida is pretty much a lock for Trump based on how the state has done politically since 2014 and has consistently shifted towards the right from 2014 to now, and the early voting is favoring Trump.

I am not going to count out a Biden win however because I do believe Wisconsin and Michigan are toss-ups while Pennsylvania can go both ways.
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Superb work. I've been looking for a sober take on what will realistically be called by 11/4.

So it would seem that Trump will have a massive Electoral edge on Election Night, and he'll probably declare victory. The MSM will be all "not so fast" and try to keep Biden's hopes alive by pushing late counting/recount talk.

If Biden has the 92 locked, and we go ahead and give him Wisconsin and Michigan, plus the givens of NY and CA, and CT, MD, NJ, DC and WA he's at 248, in striking distance. Alaska, NV, and Utah have 3, 6 and 6. If Trump nails all 3, he wins. If Biden gets all 3 he doesn't.

But in the end, it all looks like it comes down to PA. That will be the Florida of this election. It's got a lot going on: late vote counting, blue for the past 30 years except for Trump last time, polling blue now. And currently experiencing riots in places as large as Philadelphia and as small as Lancaster. Not to mention Biden's fracking comments. It's also one of the most reliable members of Andrew Cuomo's Eastern State's Coalition out side stalwarts NJ and CT and has been exempted from his Quarantine lists.

I predict the 20 votes there will decide the election, and there will be a shitload of court battles and recounts. Thinking back to the Florida factors, here's some facts:

-State Supreme Court is 2 R, 5 D.
-Governor, Lt Gov, and Atty Gn are all straight D
-PA has not yet joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact--this is big, because right now it's winner take all and outside of court shennanigans they can't just change the Electors

The one thing I can't see is what their rules are if there are toss up counties, or a tie or very close popular vote counts statewide or in counties, like in FL 2000. If anyone knows the minutia on that I'd like to know.
 
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verissimus said:
Man, the FBI has really compromised themselves these past 4 years.
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If you are a criminal, this can be a good thing. Your attorney can plant doubt in the minds of the jury by telling them you are conservative and the FBI's investigation is politically-motivated. Keep hammering that point. In many places in this country can save you from a guilty verdict. Least I'd have my attorney use this tactic.
 
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BiggieSmall'sTaint said:
The decline of society began when God decided to work on the 6th day instead of sleeping in.

On topic: Presidents get two terms in office. Even George "I did 9/11" Bush got two terms. Trump 2020, 4 more years, no wall, Hillary still free, the national debt keeps growing.

The real spicy stuff happens in the 2024 elections. I predict 8 years of democrat rule with a new Middle East war somewhere around 2026.
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There is no way that Israel waits until 2026 to force the golem to tackle Iran. If we can make if through the next 3 months without a major false flag attributed to Iran it will be a miracle, but no way we'll make it through 2021 without a demonstration of Iranian evil that demands retaliation.

Factbox: Russian, Iranian and other hackers target 2020 U.S. election​

 
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Dog-O-Tron 5000v5.0 said:
Superb work. I've been looking for a sober take on what will realistically be called by 11/4.

So it would seem that Trump will have a massive Electoral edge on Election Night, and he'll probably declare victory. The MSM will be all "not so fast" and try to keep Biden's hopes alive by pushing late counting/recount talk.

If Biden has the 92 locked, and we go ahead and give him Wisconsin and Michigan, plus the givens of NY and CA, and CT, MD, NJ, DC and WA he's at 248, in striking distance. Alaska, NV, and Utah have 3, 6 and 6. If Trump nails all 3, he wins. If Biden gets all 3 he doesn't.

But in the end, it all looks like it comes down to PA. That will be the Florida of this election. It's got a lot going on: late vote counting, blue for the past 30 years except for Trump last time, polling blue now. And currently experiencing riots in places as large as Philadelphia and as small as Lancaster. Not to mention Biden's fracking comments. It's also one of the most reliable members of Andrew Cuomo's Eastern State's Coalition out side stalwarts NJ and CT and has been exempted from his Quarantine lists.

I predict the 20 votes there will decide the election, and there will be a shitload of court battles and recounts. Thinking back to the Florida factors, here's some facts:

-State Supreme Court is 2 R, 5 D.
-Governor, Lt Gov, and Atty Gn are all straight D
-PA has not yet joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact--this is big, because right now it's winner take all and outside of court shennanigans they can't just change the Electors

The one thing I can't see is what their rules are if there are toss up counties, or a tie or very close popular vote counts statewide or in counties, like in FL 2000. If anyone knows the minutia on that I'd like to know.
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I think personally Trump can win Michigan, Wisconsin is 50/50, and Minnesota is also a 45/55 with it being more on edge to Biden. If Trump wins those three states and are called for him, then it's pretty much game over with PA going to be a consolation prize. Of course there has to be some protection over the ballots so shenanigans don't happen.

As for why I believe the MSM will be honest in some of the calls for who wins what state, it will be to keep their credibility because if they push a Biden win despite reality proving otherwise then the normies will look at them in bad faith so the news has to be obligated to report the results as it is seen. Given both Utah and Alaska are permanent red states for now, Trump just needs Wisconsin or Michigan.

Other states that could be toss-ups besides Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota are really New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Nevada based on how things went in 2016 along with how there seems to be more Hillary voters crossing over to Trump compared to Trump supporters crossing over to Biden.
 
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Even if Biden wins, there will be another Republican president. America will not collapse into a hellish dictatorship. The doomers saying this are exactly the same as the people who spouted and having been spouting the same thing about Trump ever since he became president.

American politics is basically a pendulum that swings back-and-forth. The far-Right met their end in the early 90s after fundamentalists, and right-wing terrorists utterly destroyed any good faith it might've had left. The far-Left is currently in a deathspiral just like how the far-Right was. Though it might seem hard to believe, even if Biden wins, I think they'll be nothing more than a outdated, backwards, harmful laughingstock that the far-Right, and all that came with it are now by the end of the decade. Hell, I honestly think they'll stick around longer if Trump wins before eventually crashing and burning in a probably spectacular, and horrifying way the far-Right did if only because I think Trump winning will radicalizing them more. I just don't believe this cannibalization thing some of you have been saying. That's not how the far-Right ended, and I don't think it'll end that way for the far-Left either.

What I'm saying is that regardless of who wins, everything eventually passes, and we'll be okay. It's still gonna be one hell of a night, and there's going to be a lot of turmoil afterwards, and but eventually everything will go back to normal, and eventually the pendulum will swing back, and things won't be as crazy or chaotic as they are now.

Even if he wins, Biden isn't going to doom the nation just like Trump hasn't doomed the nation. Antifa members aren't going to be storming into your house just like how the Proud Boys and all those other faggots didn't storm into your house like the lunatics on the Left said when Trump became president.

Don't piss and moan like all the whiny SJWs did when about when Trump won if Biden somehow miraculously wins. Just keep your chin up, and don't do anything stupid. Take precautions, and shit, but don't go out causing violence, or whatever. I don't give a fuck if the fucking far-Left, BLM, or Antifa does it. Actually prove you're better than them by not doing retarded bullshit like that.

Tl;dr: America is not going to turn into an SJW version of North Korea if Biden wins, the far-Left isn't going to last for much longer, and don't go out and cause violence if the guy you backed doesn't win.
 
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Bunny Tracks said:
Don't piss and moan like all the whiny SJWs did when about when Trump won if Biden somehow miraculously wins. Just keep your chin up, and don't do anything stupid. Take precautions, and shit, but don't go out causing violence, or whatever. I don't give a fuck if the fucking far-Left, BLM, or Antifa does it. Actually prove you're better than them by not doing retarded bullshit like that.
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Literally this.

If Biden is elected, I could foresee the right turning into the rabid haters of him like how the left has been to Trump the past four years. I don't like Biden a bit, but it'd be very funny if we have to make a thread on "Biden Derangement Syndrome" because the right would've been hypocritical about mocking the left for their rabid hatred of Trump while they would've been buttmad about Biden. There wouldn't be any difference between TDS and BDS at all, other than the political ideologies.

side note - i forever blame @FuckedUp for my unironic support of jorgensen this election
 
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Pickle Dick said:
Literally this.

If Biden is elected, I could foresee the right turning into the rabid haters of him like how the left has been to Trump the past four years. I don't like Biden a bit, but it'd be very funny if we have to make a thread on "Biden Derangement Syndrome" because the right would've been hypocritical about mocking the left for their rabid hatred of Trump while they would've been buttmad about Biden. There wouldn't be any difference between TDS and BDS at all, other than the political ideologies.
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The closest thing is the TES thread but it's full of pissing and moaning about "Orange Man Bad" and "Bible Thumper Bad", honestly a Biden win would be the best thing for that thread so there can material if it really happens of Trump supporters chimping out.

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Note: It's really unlikely there'd be notable chimpouts however given social media censors Pro-Trump accounts and the closest thing will get is media coverage to make the Right look bad. Also the TES (and potential Biden Derangement Syndrome) will still be bad most likely given that thread is full of the most asshurt people who don't even bother wanting to laugh at idiots.
 
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