- Joined
- Jul 17, 2019
The numbers on this Wisconsin rally, doods.
192,240+ watching now. EDIT: Steadily dropping, but it was great to see.
192,240+ watching now. EDIT: Steadily dropping, but it was great to see.
2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.
- Thread starter Pickle Dick
- Start date
- Status
- Joined
- May 17, 2019
- Joined
- Sep 29, 2020
Casting my vote for the Don tomorrow. First time voting actually. I actually thought I wasn't registered to vote but apparently, I am.
If Biden wins I'm not gonna freak out and cry about it. Life will go on. I will definitely be disappointed though.
If Biden wins I'm not gonna freak out and cry about it. Life will go on. I will definitely be disappointed though.
- Joined
- Dec 30, 2018
2012: Nate Silver
2016: Nate Cardboard
2020: Nate Dust
2016: Nate Cardboard
2020: Nate Dust
- Joined
- May 18, 2014
How do you age that badly in four years? It's not like making up some phony numbers is a stressful job.
Honka Honka Burning Love
In Clown World, the only god is the one who Honks.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2019
- Joined
- Jun 28, 2020
- Will get results faster than mainstream outlets like New York Times, will be county to count
- Polling misses are the worst during the class divide
- Independent might not be as solidly moving towards Trump but he's not sure. Still, it's happening in Pennsylvania and Arizona
- Primaries are a good way to obtain inferred data on states that do not register party preferences
- Baris thinks he is wrong about Wisconsin
- Barnes points out that Marquette's poll is a bit more pro-Trump and that working class whites are trending double digits towards Trump (at least ten)
- 66-28 for Trump in 2020 in Waukesha County
- Polls said crossover would overwhelmingly favored Clinton in 2016, but it ended up being the opposite
- Ottawa County, Michigan 64-36
- Trump is doing better among the religious conservative Ben Shapiro crowd than he did in 2016, slightly better than Romney in 2012
- If Trump gets back the 20% of the Mormon vote he lost in Nevada, the 2.4 win Clinton has shrinks to 1.4 for Biden
- Among born-again Christian evangelical in Wisconsin, 74-24 are planning to vote for Trump
- Middle-class Libertarians like Dave Rubin are now endorsing Trump, representing a particular constituency that are now voting Trump
- Every time a third-party goes down in electorate share, the incumbent has won re-election
- When third-party shares goes up, that means the country is unhappy with third-parties. When third-party shares goes down, that means the country is satisfied with the incumbent
- Minnesota will show a lead for Biden by about four points, but does not believe the southwestern part of the state is not representative enough
- Trump had a huge lead in the Northeast
- Trump is not doing bad in Racine County
- Trump leads in the suburbs 46.3%-46.6% in Milwaukee County
- Barnes believes TargetSmart is accurate
- Youth, African-American, and Mexican-American votes are down 20-30% in early votes compared to normal
- Partisan gap in early vote matters less than the demographic that turns out, i.e. underwhelming youth voting in early votes leads to underwhelming in Election Day
- Most pollsters were wrong about who would show up
- Don't worry about topline, pay attention to the internals
- Norwegians are splitting ticket, they are voting for Trump but not for Lewis
- Lewis does better among nonwhites (Asians, Hispanics, and blacks) than Trump
- Hennenpin / Ramsay County is too female in the city, rest is normal
- Suburban areas are more uncomfortable telling people how they will vote than anyone else
- Patrick Basham's popular vote was off because he was trying to predict the electoral college, not factoring in increased support in uncompetitive areas like California and New York, which he corrected for this year (final poll is a Trump + 1)
- Trump is going to flip the Iron Range in massive numbers
- Barnes believs some of the excess votes for Jo Jorgensen are just those parking their vote for Trump, at least in states where Jorgensen is polling above 1%
- Dakota County, Minnesota 50% Biden-45% Trump
- Scott County, Minnesota 52.94% - 32.5% Biden
- Olmstead County, Minnesota 52 (Biden) - 48 (Trump)
- Joe Biden's internal polling had him down +1 in Michigan last Thursday and had to ask Obama for help
- Barnes think that African-American, Mexican-American, and youth, are really not tuning in to primary participation, vote by mail, watching the debates, etc, which is why they need to stuff the ballot
- Democrats are all but conceding Florida by saying the state is not really in play
- This year's Seltzer's poll internals has a slightly more favorable voters because it shows that Trump is not losing the third-party vote to Biden
- No erosion in Evangelical voters in Iowa and Wisconsin (both nearly 1/3 of the voter margin), Wisconsin's evangelical voted even higher for Trump than Iowa
- Barnes suggests that candidates should hold their votes until Election Day to throw off the other competitors
- Barnes believs Democrats needed a D+8 early turnout vote to keep the state of Nevada, but it's now D+3 and Republicans are planning to storm the polls on Election Day
- Washoe County will be a wash, in other words a really close race
- Rural counties in Nevada will keep turning out
- Biden will not win Clark County by double digits, but by high single digits
- DNC should have already been stealing the election by padding out the ballots with certain demographic groups, who aren't showing up (like millennial Mexicans)
- The problem with comparing RealClearPolitics and 538's averages is that you will often get different pollsters who may use different modes, making it unhelpful to analyze
- If IBP/TIPP has Biden+3, that means Bassham, the one conducting the Democracy Institute polls, might be right about Trump winning the popular vote unless Democrats really pad the ballots in California and New York
- Moderate women in Arizona actually helps Trump
- Nevada has almost zero postgradutes, a group trending Biden by seven points
- Barnes thinks Nevada is very close and could flip
- Mexican-Americans in Nevada are looking to trend ten points towards Trump, but they may not have an increased share of the vote
- Mormon voters will come home to Trump in Nevada and Arizona, enough to make them swing states
- Lockdown is more unpopular than people realize
- The Harry Reid machine is gone and its acolytes might not be as powerful, making fraud harder to pull in Nevada. Reid delivered the state to Hillary Clinton in 2016 in the primary against Bernie Sanders, yet in 2020, Sanders crushed Biden in the primary there
- Culinary union in not very active due to the economy being crushed in Nevada
- Biden did a terrible job, only reaching 5th place
- Trump just needed the Hunter Biden story enough for Biden to be associated with corruption
- Rallies have helped him a lot in Pennsylvania, local reporters and media have been reporting this
- Trump is touching 40% in Allegheny County
- Trump is now tied in Pennsylvania with Biden 48-48, leaners are leaning towards Trump
- Biden already has the maximum amount of votes he can get in Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania
- Leaners leaned towards Biden first, then overwhelmingly towards Trump
- Pennsylvania leans Trump. Demographic is more male, more rural, more working class.
- Barnes is not expecting a House flip to the Republicans but they will get closer than 2018
- Trump voters are not necessarily Republicans, they needs non-college Independent Whites to take back the House
- Primary turnout of certain demographics is predictive of how they will turnout in the general election. For example, blacks are less likely to vote in Wayne County because they did not show up in the Michigan Democratic Presidential primary. Same with Mexicans-Americans in West Texas who did not vote as much in Texas's 2020 Democratic Primary
- Barnes will do exclusive covering of Election Night for $5 a month here.
jje100010001
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2020
The problem is dismantling all the state appendages that the Democrats have introduced to entrench themselves while simultaneously fighting off a hostile public bureaucracy, advocacy network, and media. And doing so will likely take more than one term and control of the state legislatures.
It'll be a microcosm of Trump's first term, a tall task indeed.
- Joined
- Sep 29, 2020
My final prediction for tomorrow night - we'll see how it pans out. I've got fingers crossed that Trump is able to flip Minnesota and that enough votes will come in for him in Pennsylvania that they'll outweigh any shenanigans the Dems try to pull in the state the next few days. Writing off New Hampshire because it always flirts with going Republican but never does, and Nevada because they're allowed 14 days to find enough votes for Biden.
- Joined
- Sep 27, 2018
Pennsylvania is again the bellwether, but Nevada is one of those states I think is wishful thinking but if it does flip you might as well call it right there. Same with the other Californian colonies in the West or Florida, Georgia and North Carolina for Trump.
verissimus
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Nov 3, 2018
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2019
I remember my old man took me out to vote when I was in college. I seriously didn't do any research on anybody or anything on the ballot (in my hasty self-informing at the booth, I could have sworn that both the Republican and Democrat senator candidates for my state were running on the exact same platform), and I ended up choosing someone for everything except the president/VP section. I would end up insisting that I didn't vote for a president to my family members who became increasingly deluded into believing that I had in fact voted for Trump.
This time, I took a good 1-2 hours researching every candidate on the ballot, and that aside, I did one very last run to make sure that I was in fact going to vote for Trump. It was by incident that I ended up voting down-ballot.
In truth, being suspicious about how he was handled in news reporting led me to inadvertently talk myself into begrudgingly supporting him, and because of that and my social environments, I find I can't be honest about my support. I definitely lean to his defense more than I should. But aside from my ideals having no place in the Democratic party of today or of the future (and that's really my major thing), I saw what they did to Kavanaugh. I recognized the cultural rot that the rank-and-file were encouraging. I saw what their activist groups were encouraging (BLM denounces the traditional family structure, obviously to the detriment of the African-American community). I saw what they were doing in their towns, and the people that suffered as a result. I listened to ardent Democrat supporters-- educated, some in law-- babble through convoluted defenses for all of this and more, if they didn't just brush them aside. And to be sure, regarding the enactment of my cultural ideals (I'm talking stuff like comprehensive sex ed with a strong focus on responsible sexuality, the restoration of the family unit, tighter control of adult material as a means of mitigating the social impairment of children), I don't expect for them to be implemented as is-- even if the Senate is retained by Republicans, even if they win the House as well. At the very least, though, we won't be moving further away from those things, and that lets the people who care better jockey for those ideals.
Of course, I live in a deep blue state, so it isn't bound to turn the tides, but that's not to say that it doesn't matter. Now, if someone asks me who I voted for, I'll say I voted third party and be evasive about specifics-- it's not as if I need to invite conflict when they can't even behave with dignity and intellectual honesty.
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- Joined
- Apr 14, 2018
I didn't put it because it's not likely to be called tomorrow
jje100010001
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2020
Not holding my breath for New Hampshire either, but I am curious about whether or not we'll get a hint at its true political leaning, since universities in Massachusetts are closed (along with their student vote initiatives)- we'll either see that hypothesis confirmed or denied.
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2020
In Bakersfield, CA, a horde of white supremacist Drumpler supporters stalk and harass a young woman like a pack of zombies: https://archive.md/K6VyS
A taste of things to come?
A taste of things to come?
- Joined
- Jul 17, 2019
737 MAX Stan Account
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2020
Wonder if Canada’s immigration site will crash again? Or will they try Mexico this time?
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2020
Safe bets are Canada, UK, New Zealand, and Australia. I wonder why that is....
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