Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[SneedEyeMitch]

They should find another excuse asp because blaming Trump is now cliche.

I blame Trump for this.

 

[The golden neckbeard]

Ahh shit. my son just threw a positive. he is pretty sick.

all stomach and nausea. nothing respiratory

lots of pants shitting. Earily reminds me of his bout last year with a norovirus

guess ill update first hand. Its likely delta since supposedly that is the only thing in florida really

 

[Jar-Jar Fanboy]

I just plugged my info into a program developed by Oxford University called QCovid, that's supposed to tell you your chances of death/hospitalization due to Covid, based on an algorithm they've written. I think it's pretty cool, and it told me my chances of both are extremely, incredibly, astronomically low, but I'm a bit of a smoothbrain. Does anybody know if this thing's actually accurate? How much stock should I put into the results?

 

[Escaped Abortion]

I can't be arsed to find the articles if they haven't been "amended" but when comparing vaxxed vs unvaxxed case numbers the papers and news were saying vax was 95+% effective a couple months ago, then 90% a few weeks ago, and most recent I've seen we're down to 72% and I've heard 65% being thrown around as well. Fuck knows if these numbers are accurate because I'm pretty sure unvaxxed people are required to get tested a lot more often since Ontario's new guidelines explicitly fucking say that. And some reported numbers start counting in December 2020 which was when the first shots went into arms, but the gov't didn't start rolling them out for the general public until April and second doses a month after, virtually ensuring close to 100% of cases would be "unvaccinated" for 4-5 months at least.

I wish people realized it is easy to manipulate statistics to try and say literally whatever you want. The vax is a scam and I find the propaganda very tiresome.

Good news, according to this article Pfizer's efficiency is down to 42% Better start lining up to take that third shot of the same thing that isn't working. Maybe the gods of science will smile upon your devotion and turn around these numbers.

I am wondering if I will get to see my already recovered from covid double vaxxed friends go for their triple vax soon, or if the various ones who say they want to put me to death act on on first (I don't think they really have the stomach for it, but somedays I wish they would just recognize what genuinely terrible people they are.)

I just plugged my info into a program developed by Oxford University called QCovid, that's supposed to tell you your chances of death/hospitalization due to Covid, based on an algorithm they've written. I think it's pretty cool, and it told me my chances of both are extremely, incredibly, astronomically low, but I'm a bit of a smoothbrain. Does anybody know if this thing's actually accurate? How much stock should I put into the results?

I'll look into it, but we do have a fair amount of covid data to build something like this. Covid really loves it's exponential curve by age, and we know what factors worsen a person's outcome. Granted, some people just get unlucky and die randomly, but that's true of most illnesses; we just don't fuss about it since the chances are so remote it would just make us stressed and miserable.

Gonna check it out, since it's from Oxford I imagine the results will be from the British data rather than the Murkica stuff, so that might impact things a bit. https://www.qcovid.org/Calculation

 

[FarmerKhourtney]

Hope he feels better soon. Is he school aged ?

Ahh shit. my son just threw a positive. he is pretty sick.

all stomach and nausea. nothing respiratory

lots of pants shitting. Earily reminds me of his bout last year with a norovirus

guess ill update first hand. Its likely delta since supposedly that is the only thing in florida really

 

[Without A Gout]

They should find another excuse asp because blaming Trump is now cliche.

Doesn't matter orange man bad.

 

[Super-Chevy454]

Doesn't matter orange man bad.

I think Trump might troll them by saying "Miss me yet?"

 

[tehpope]

Maybe this is just because I'm a terrible human being, or maybe I'm blackpilled now. I don't know.

Is anyone else hoping a small ray of light out of this Afghan disaster is that the Biden admininstration will forget about all the COVID restrictions they were about to reimpose because they have a more important PR disaster on their hands?

I haven't heard anything from the CDC this weekend, and Biden/Harris/Psaki all seem to be hiding.

Its a distraction at worst. Biden's admin could push a lot of horrible evil shit while people are talking about how badly Biden fucked up Afghanistan. We'll have to see. Maybe they'll ease up and not do another total lockdown since that would just be adding kindling to the fire.

 

[The Wicked Mitch]

I just plugged my info into a program developed by Oxford University called QCovid, that's supposed to tell you your chances of death/hospitalization due to Covid, based on an algorithm they've written. I think it's pretty cool, and it told me my chances of both are extremely, incredibly, astronomically low, but I'm a bit of a smoothbrain. Does anybody know if this thing's actually accurate? How much stock should I put into the results?

Are you under 70 and not terminally ill?

In that case it's probably accurate.

 

[Jar-Jar Fanboy]

Are you under 70 and not terminally ill?

In that case it's probably accurate.

mid-20's, and generally healthy. Chance of death is 0.0002%, and chance of hospitalization is 0.008%. I just want to know if this thing is trustworthy before I start throwing these numbers around

 

[The golden neckbeard]

Hope he feels better soon. Is he school aged ?

Yes. He got it at school

 

[ddw]

mid-20's, and generally healthy. Chance of death is 0.0002%, and chance of hospitalization is 0.008%. I just want to know if this thing is trustworthy before I start throwing these numbers around

no the death rate is 5% and chance of hospitalization is 33% shitlord

 

[Knight of the Rope]

mid-20's, and generally healthy. Chance of death is 0.0002%, and chance of hospitalization is 0.008%. I just want to know if this thing is trustworthy before I start throwing these numbers around

Do you mean "trustworthy" in a relative or overall sense? If relative, read on. If the latter, then we've got a 2800+ page thread on exactly how trustworthy any of this shit is, and you're in it.

Luckily for us they've got their code for their algorithm right there on full display. Copy-pasting here for posterity and to poke fun:

Spoiler: Cooder stuff

Female death calculation:

/*
 * QCOVID © Copyright, Oxford University 2020.
 * All Rights Reserved. The author, being Professor Julia Hippsley-Cox, has asserted their moral right.
 *
 */

static double death_female(
int age,int b2_82,int b2_leukolaba,int b2_prednisolone,int b_AF,int b_CCF,int b_asthma,int b_bloodcancer,int b_cerebralpalsy,int b_chd,int b_cirrhosis,int b_congenheart,int b_copd,int b_dementia,int b_epilepsy,int b_fracture4,int b_neurorare,int b_parkinsons,int b_pulmhyper,int b_pulmrare,int b_pvd,int b_ra_sle,int b_respcancer,int b_semi,int b_sicklecelldisease,int b_stroke,int b_type1,int b_type2,int b_vte,double bmi,int chemocat,int ethrisk,int homecat,int learncat,int p_marrow6,int p_radio6,int p_solidtransplant,int renalcat,int surv,double town
)
{
    double survivor[91] = {
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0.999977290630341
    };

    double Ichemocat[4] = {
        0,
        0.8345234517964427167768804,
        1.2595202625466794810193960,
        2.8514552483447963560081462
    };
    double Iethrisk[10] = {
        0,
        0,
        0.6389369130057840351355480,
        0.3342933389380337572127644,
        0.3428258158976604796919219,
        0.1716307703741346002423995,
        0.5199930351630326352818656,
        0.6823609168626041387994974,
        0.1930811621976745162676536,
        0.5483388756920363205082936
    };
    double Ihomecat[3] = {
        0,
        1.2843897452012438265001038,
        0.3902468934897107555315188
    };
    double Ilearncat[3] = {
        0,
        0.3039596464330543423848496,
        3.4826484000729771572935078
    };
    double Irenalcat[7] = {
        0,
        0,
        0.2651025698152708609534045,
        0.3172050204046410470937190,
        1.0983587266864589526704776,
        0.9870752383405548835426657,
        2.0594912500810331756895266
    };

    double dage = age;
    dage=dage/10;
    double age_2 = pow(dage,3)*log(dage);
    double age_1 = pow(dage,3);
    double dbmi = bmi;
    dbmi=dbmi/10;
    double bmi_1 = pow(dbmi,.5);
    double bmi_2 = pow(dbmi,.5)*log(dbmi);

    age_1 = age_1 - 115.599884033203125;
    age_2 = age_2 - 183.038345336914062;
    bmi_1 = bmi_1 - 1.632479429244995;
    bmi_2 = bmi_2 - 1.600156426429749;
    town = town - 0.327639788389206;

    double a=0;

    a += Ichemocat[chemocat];
    a += Iethrisk[ethrisk];
    a += Ihomecat[homecat];
    a += Ilearncat[learncat];
    a += Irenalcat[renalcat];

    a += age_1 * 0.0535266800950749549459218;
    a += age_2 * -0.0200935878258154260178614;
    a += bmi_1 * -19.7435582245984164728724863;
    a += bmi_2 * 6.6648702078668167203545636;
    a += town * 0.0787269477751315061020421;

    a += b2_82 * 0.0859851843797995313289917;
    a += b2_leukolaba * 0.2037201166969377086335413;
    a += b2_prednisolone * 0.6019896780418610982010819;
    a += b_AF * 0.1660328711606123830435422;
    a += b_CCF * 0.3158788199551698649969467;
    a += b_asthma * -0.1708080810500710866595142;
    a += b_bloodcancer * 0.4045790554089616630761839;
    a += b_cerebralpalsy * 1.2375891121070539124815468;
    a += b_chd * 0.2178442812641575854204490;
    a += b_cirrhosis * 0.6165061556893419725255967;
    a += b_congenheart * 0.2099695358513284648704911;
    a += b_copd * 0.4069036991923689616790227;
    a += b_dementia * 1.0673649341196249640262295;
    a += b_epilepsy * 0.4563898846837706191337247;
    a += b_fracture4 * 0.1142356737251236653563069;
    a += b_neurorare * 1.0103599800977995926132280;
    a += b_parkinsons * 0.1256622652011334939636811;
    a += b_pulmhyper * 0.4365766436191424459956067;
    a += b_pulmrare * -0.1665545651399719662144605;
    a += b_pvd * 0.3521144005866303494656222;
    a += b_ra_sle * 0.2775017265662046983543121;
    a += b_respcancer * 0.5288182839278391389470357;
    a += b_semi * 0.2549134429838964543968416;
    a += b_sicklecelldisease * 1.7818709562115360167666722;
    a += b_stroke * 0.2915465900033972213023503;
    a += b_type1 * 1.3918300744178950800744587;
    a += b_type2 * 1.8389652399973426266654997;
    a += b_vte * 0.1657707292848709101917848;
    a += p_marrow6 * 1.0220219382440418609547805;
    a += p_radio6 * 0.7446485607185400201757375;
    a += p_solidtransplant * 0.3787854828143376040294754;


    a += age_1 * b_type2 * -0.0200621605517602719093162;
    a += age_2 * b_type2 * 0.0074957790032429043661222;

    double score = 100.0 * (1 - pow(survivor[surv], exp(a)) );
    return score;
}

Female hospitalization calculation:

/*
 * QCOVID © Copyright, Oxford University 2020.
 * All Rights Reserved. The author, being Professor Julia Hippsley-Cox, has asserted their moral right.
 *
 */

static double hospital_female(
int age,int b2_82,int b2_leukolaba,int b2_prednisolone,int b_AF,int b_CCF,int b_asthma,int b_bloodcancer,int b_cerebralpalsy,int b_chd,int b_cirrhosis,int b_congenheart,int b_copd,int b_dementia,int b_epilepsy,int b_fracture4,int b_neurorare,int b_parkinsons,int b_pulmhyper,int b_pulmrare,int b_pvd,int b_ra_sle,int b_respcancer,int b_semi,int b_sicklecelldisease,int b_stroke,int b_type1,int b_type2,int b_vte,double bmi,int chemocat,int ethrisk,int homecat,int learncat,int p_marrow6,int p_radio6,int p_solidtransplant,int renalcat,int surv,double town
)
{
    double survivor[91] = {
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0.999614596366882
    };

    double Ichemocat[4] = {
        0,
        0.7468184809678632962715028,
        1.4335568622103449509808115,
        2.7425623418828077859643599
    };
    double Iethrisk[10] = {
        0,
        0,
        0.6381416181144948795989080,
        0.4154336125176559812999244,
        0.3460373664440339336323404,
        0.7629835412388623616664063,
        0.6956993818885366387405611,
        0.8317012026776886557399848,
        0.1388269618785758774404115,
        0.6432491845097410010367867
    };
    double Ihomecat[3] = {
        0,
        0.6111109399113108242573844,
        0.2046773133743576833509792
    };
    double Ilearncat[3] = {
        0,
        0.4267124890741003651051244,
        2.1792421003277180346913156
    };
    double Irenalcat[7] = {
        0,
        0,
        0.2982583643377000881535821,
        0.5848878422963580403504125,
        1.4268609433854653190110184,
        1.3148983941801617447708850,
        1.7128356862419007455855535
    };

    double dage = age;
    dage=dage/10;
    double age_1 = pow(dage,.5);
    double age_2 = pow(dage,2);
    double dbmi = bmi;
    dbmi=dbmi/10;
    double bmi_2 = log(dbmi);
    double bmi_1 = pow(dbmi,-2);

    age_1 = age_1 - 2.207121372222900;
    age_2 = age_2 - 23.730392456054688;
    bmi_1 = bmi_1 - 0.140802085399628;
    bmi_2 = bmi_2 - 0.980199992656708;
    town = town - 0.327639788389206;

    double a=0;

    a += Ichemocat[chemocat];
    a += Iethrisk[ethrisk];
    a += Ihomecat[homecat];
    a += Ilearncat[learncat];
    a += Irenalcat[renalcat];

    a += age_1 * -0.1484733673762321515265938;
    a += age_2 * 0.0405941535676193412940371;
    a += bmi_1 * 6.1144623880326562925802136;
    a += bmi_2 * 2.7351660262730592698687815;
    a += town * 0.0837552324383479818159515;

    a += b2_82 * 0.2742900245435872519372822;
    a += b2_leukolaba * 0.2676801383148893487273767;
    a += b2_prednisolone * 0.6545953126312467063030454;
    a += b_AF * 0.2903016741277205103877179;
    a += b_CCF * 0.3236173092786057137182354;
    a += b_asthma * 0.1121787272583002481596282;
    a += b_bloodcancer * 0.3377863143614412422266469;
    a += b_cerebralpalsy * 0.9778476962006689143791505;
    a += b_chd * 0.1076997815345036024758940;
    a += b_cirrhosis * 0.6047183940676497115873644;
    a += b_congenheart * 0.1825617255143640038639319;
    a += b_copd * 0.2940790450123081933853086;
    a += b_dementia * 0.5469427350294541190223185;
    a += b_epilepsy * 0.4527175076655778340750658;
    a += b_fracture4 * 0.2983585791165178080497355;
    a += b_neurorare * 0.9059625435491620581984762;
    a += b_parkinsons * 0.5286796359462073713331165;
    a += b_pulmhyper * 0.4692582807440949799193675;
    a += b_pulmrare * 0.2499579320244159075237178;
    a += b_pvd * 0.1942006598368692937839342;
    a += b_ra_sle * 0.3019421121979438682458863;
    a += b_respcancer * 0.4999823548811314077866541;
    a += b_semi * 0.3162439787347626762858965;
    a += b_sicklecelldisease * 1.8985404911409835548852243;
    a += b_stroke * 0.3305273237679022813040319;
    a += b_type1 * 1.3943531760373193417734683;
    a += b_type2 * 0.9708326823437052333076736;
    a += b_vte * 0.2955542808178847624667185;
    a += p_marrow6 * 0.1893906144867409657717161;
    a += p_radio6 * 0.3876198174592248579806153;
    a += p_solidtransplant * 0.4490079929764763111421644;

    a += age_1 * b_type2 * -1.1514860942738034399468461;
    a += age_2 * b_type2 * 0.0018396028070442396740169;

    double score = 100.0 * (1 - pow(survivor[surv], exp(a)) );
    return score;
}

Male death calculation:

/*
 * QCOVID © Copyright, Oxford University 2020.
 * All Rights Reserved. The author, being Professor Julia Hippsley-Cox, has asserted their moral right.
 *
 */

static double death_male(
int age,int b2_82,int b2_leukolaba,int b2_prednisolone,int b_AF,int b_CCF,int b_asthma,int b_bloodcancer,int b_cerebralpalsy,int b_chd,int b_cirrhosis,int b_congenheart,int b_copd,int b_dementia,int b_epilepsy,int b_fracture4,int b_neurorare,int b_parkinsons,int b_pulmhyper,int b_pulmrare,int b_pvd,int b_ra_sle,int b_respcancer,int b_semi,int b_sicklecelldisease,int b_stroke,int b_type1,int b_type2,int b_vte,double bmi,int chemocat,int ethrisk,int homecat,int learncat,int p_marrow6,int p_radio6,int p_solidtransplant,int renalcat,int surv,double town
)
{
    double survivor[91] = {
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0.999956965446472
    };

    double Ichemocat[4] = {
        0,
        0.5518382023402614855456250,
        1.2521892539965664425949399,
        1.2136983258866618218263511
    };
    double Iethrisk[10] = {
        0,
        0,
        0.4612255535316009957824690,
        0.6111266423098750122377965,
        0.8204730544167745387440505,
        0.7014941739425393230078498,
        0.7240940102093914587655377,
        1.1094023093836316018467869,
        0.9042387414289448921422832,
        0.7111426262631623806953485
    };
    double Ihomecat[3] = {
        0,
        1.4544904405508778388878000,
        0.4426122079730733793745401
    };
    double Ilearncat[3] = {
        0,
        0.3038620602034622364406857,
        2.2820367212000198797738904
    };
    double Irenalcat[7] = {
        0,
        0,
        0.1624549376621728935532474,
        0.6050038962863354408128203,
        0.8751467115376150296413016,
        1.2993052354424052818870905,
        1.1624518358657724981242154
    };

    double dage = age;
    dage=dage/10;
    double age_1 = dage;
    double age_2 = pow(dage,3);
    double dbmi = bmi;
    dbmi=dbmi/10;
    double bmi_2 = pow(dbmi,-.5)*log(dbmi);
    double bmi_1 = pow(dbmi,-.5);

    age_1 = age_1 - 4.770704746246338;
    age_2 = age_2 - 108.579444885253906;
    bmi_1 = bmi_1 - 0.613678753376007;
    bmi_2 = bmi_2 - 0.599298655986786;
    town = town - 0.436863929033279;

    double a=0;

    a += Ichemocat[chemocat];
    a += Iethrisk[ethrisk];
    a += Ihomecat[homecat];
    a += Ilearncat[learncat];
    a += Irenalcat[renalcat];

    a += age_1 * 1.4547532388624053734105246;
    a += age_2 * -0.0028280265297625597521736;
    a += bmi_1 * -22.0609948165960112476113864;
    a += bmi_2 * -20.3035078034241216471400548;
    a += town * 0.0812689785693790078813237;

    a += b2_82 * 0.4591322211314322609965188;
    a += b2_leukolaba * 0.0412503496956075910162554;
    a += b2_prednisolone * 0.3626076782717908564279696;
    a += b_AF * 0.1052111096824691061080159;
    a += b_CCF * 0.3396973581366389827174146;
    a += b_asthma * 0.0321078769888719015024314;
    a += b_bloodcancer * 0.2516787141016778583946234;
    a += b_cerebralpalsy * 1.0196367443019023202310791;
    a += b_chd * 0.1185398586465893217001266;
    a += b_cirrhosis * 0.2579778953047697220846146;
    a += b_congenheart * 0.0297033412293931098346889;
    a += b_copd * 0.2247771466899423364882438;
    a += b_dementia * 1.1427890629158352631122852;
    a += b_epilepsy * 0.4706338398323707261639015;
    a += b_fracture4 * 0.3447414553384527402535298;
    a += b_neurorare * 0.6862474948256528373136121;
    a += b_parkinsons * 0.6584837103149563386494947;
    a += b_pulmhyper * 0.3845567043397818407513000;
    a += b_pulmrare * 0.1846607906556500255934594;
    a += b_pvd * 0.3234029467753249398320747;
    a += b_ra_sle * 0.0152761200100454391098692;
    a += b_respcancer * 0.2405175355951279514421515;
    a += b_semi * 0.2342064563503280238965232;
    a += b_sicklecelldisease * 1.4829018816463233054747661;
    a += b_stroke * 0.2126223941662605809721498;
    a += b_type1 * 1.7655772899003154829955520;
    a += b_type2 * 1.5551685093805573956160515;
    a += b_vte * 0.3075001687704595476624547;
    a += p_marrow6 * 1.8089884245023548636766009;
    a += p_radio6 * 0.7391718905778561499175794;
    a += p_solidtransplant * 0.5444438235973578787962879;

    a += age_1 * b_type2 * -0.5325370730252168005591784;
    a += age_2 * b_type2 * 0.0013434948852218797209906;

    double score = 100.0 * (1 - pow(survivor[surv], exp(a)) );
    return score;
}

Male hospitalization computation:

/*
 * QCOVID © Copyright, Oxford University 2020.
 * All Rights Reserved. The author, being Professor Julia Hippsley-Cox, has asserted their moral right.
 *
 */

static double hospital_male(
int age,int b2_82,int b2_leukolaba,int b2_prednisolone,int b_AF,int b_CCF,int b_asthma,int b_bloodcancer,int b_cerebralpalsy,int b_chd,int b_cirrhosis,int b_congenheart,int b_copd,int b_dementia,int b_epilepsy,int b_fracture4,int b_neurorare,int b_parkinsons,int b_pulmhyper,int b_pulmrare,int b_pvd,int b_ra_sle,int b_respcancer,int b_semi,int b_sicklecelldisease,int b_stroke,int b_type1,int b_type2,int b_vte,double bmi,int chemocat,int ethrisk,int homecat,int learncat,int p_marrow6,int p_radio6,int p_solidtransplant,int renalcat,int surv,double town
)
{
    double survivor[91] = {
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0.999484241008759
    };

    double Ichemocat[4] = {
        0,
        0.5396791056031334798959165,
        1.2925251045919026182673406,
        1.4127304180622570761727275
    };
    double Iethrisk[10] = {
        0,
        0,
        0.7634218127621078542333066,
        0.7004223248170889926100813,
        0.5371036969721910692143751,
        0.8272743507914643856793191,
        0.8264788057106159380182930,
        0.9530259006923202935723793,
        0.4095851796464533567387889,
        0.7509020278385331037540595
    };
    double Ihomecat[3] = {
        0,
        0.9242505123586811643932037,
        0.4041900688356840354309440
    };
    double Ilearncat[3] = {
        0,
        0.3227329968905671697676496,
        1.4717734162553066656897727
    };
    double Irenalcat[7] = {
        0,
        0,
        0.2486111847569784372158352,
        0.6922251739537846892957873,
        1.3499829137108374510489739,
        1.7747394666416362873917478,
        1.9583171284266656098083104
    };

    double dage = age;
    dage=dage/10;
    double age_1 = pow(dage,-2);
    double age_2 = pow(dage,2);
    double dbmi = bmi;
    dbmi=dbmi/10;
    double bmi_1 = pow(dbmi,-.5);
    double bmi_2 = log(dbmi);

    age_1 = age_1 - 0.043937455862761;
    age_2 = age_2 - 22.759624481201172;
    bmi_1 = bmi_1 - 0.613678753376007;
    bmi_2 = bmi_2 - 0.976567327976227;
    town = town - 0.436863929033279;

    double a=0;

    a += Ichemocat[chemocat];
    a += Iethrisk[ethrisk];
    a += Ihomecat[homecat];
    a += Ilearncat[learncat];
    a += Irenalcat[renalcat];

    a += age_1 * -9.8655000090771149956481167;
    a += age_2 * 0.0372128338797922050829037;
    a += bmi_1 * 21.1033159148484443790039222;
    a += bmi_2 * 7.4762210517919633900874032;
    a += town * 0.0763068123197961217796248;

    a += b2_82 * 0.1096448643067308714726948;
    a += b2_leukolaba * 0.1684284444365026223167092;
    a += b2_prednisolone * 0.3541104309369558778008980;
    a += b_AF * 0.1758375829207621254823835;
    a += b_CCF * 0.2837377731487550902578221;
    a += b_asthma * 0.0967382412217892284633791;
    a += b_bloodcancer * 0.2509843520785098314185291;
    a += b_cerebralpalsy * 1.0462838419104085740940491;
    a += b_chd * 0.0610268853855645346251357;
    a += b_cirrhosis * 0.6299545424034566076798569;
    a += b_congenheart * -0.0319579062821411449824005;
    a += b_copd * 0.3083628647668430478034907;
    a += b_dementia * 0.7510502350454668629708976;
    a += b_epilepsy * 0.5603168206085185065745691;
    a += b_fracture4 * 0.3019787013219903393235199;
    a += b_neurorare * 1.2049102841347989478748559;
    a += b_parkinsons * 0.7178953912544794313532748;
    a += b_pulmhyper * 0.4420231036633441856764648;
    a += b_pulmrare * 0.2519365241136610200634038;
    a += b_pvd * 0.2362081915599513470827020;
    a += b_ra_sle * 0.2597912276586239466169559;
    a += b_respcancer * 0.3673198175857035341351775;
    a += b_semi * 0.2479742845321690758453315;
    a += b_sicklecelldisease * 1.5829020197071794751053631;
    a += b_stroke * 0.2673711337366190821107637;
    a += b_type1 * 1.2986534162809348913469876;
    a += b_type2 * 0.9444989479513733465765313;
    a += b_vte * 0.2608403897792810899325389;
    a += p_marrow6 * 0.5296880469252451817396832;
    a += p_radio6 * 0.7018887794605082053323031;
    a += p_solidtransplant * 0.7032493213195643022572767;

    a += age_1 * b_type2 * 8.1824740477927431214766330;
    a += age_2 * b_type2 * -0.0088155777714664287220137;

    double score = 100.0 * (1 - pow(survivor[surv], exp(a)) );
    return score;
}

The precision on some of those double literals is worrying, but it's been too long since I coded in C so I can't remember if it truncates them in a sane way or not. In general though only the biggest faggots ever would code in this way. God help the poor grad student that has to sift through this code to find the erroneous digit that's fucking up predictions.

Of course, academics can't code worth shit (and this one is a woman too, so y'know), but it just seems to be a standard predictive model based on statistics that they've (hopefully?) copy-pasted over from the spreadsheets correctly.

 

[SouthernBitchBob]

mid-20's, and generally healthy. Chance of death is 0.0002%, and chance of hospitalization is 0.008%. I just want to know if this thing is trustworthy before I start throwing these numbers around

The exact number might be different, but it'll be within an order of magnitude. Covid and it's very scary variants are colds. You absolutely can die from a cold if the chaos gods get a really, really bad die roll on you. Just like you can die from vending machines falling on you or an aneurysm in your sleep. None of these things are impossible. But likely? It's a thousandth of one percent, max.

 

[Protistology]

no the death rate is 5% and chance of hospitalization is 33% shitlord

Joined April 29, 2021

Go back to Langley

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/dyv...accinated-arkansas?utm_source=vicenewstwitter

 

[FAQnews Correspondent]

View attachment 2450986
https://www.vice.com/en/article/dyv...accinated-arkansas?utm_source=vicenewstwitter

 

[SouthernBitchBob]

Venting more crazed Branch Covidian abuser logic I encountered today. Cue the usual "people are dying" "the restrictions aren't that bad" goalpost dance. The one that really pissed me off was "so you're mad at people? Not directing that anger at the virus?"

YES, you dimwit. Only Branch Covidians anthropomorphize The Very Deadly Virus enough to direct anger at it. It's not sentient. Furthermore, a virus particle didn't float through my window ala Horton Hears A Who and angrily yell at me to strap a diaper on my face or threaten my bodily autonomy. That was YOU, babe. All of this has been you. When someone tells you their controlling, abusive behavior is just nature taking its course, believe them. Anyone who thinks The Virus is the mind behind this clownery is a delusional idiot. PEOPLE are doing this.

 

[Escaped Abortion]

View attachment 2450986
https://www.vice.com/en/article/dyv...accinated-arkansas?utm_source=vicenewstwitter

If you are actively trying to fight the infection, loading yourself up with more spike protein isn't going to do a fat lot of good. It takes like a month for that shot to give you antibodies, you will be over your natural infection by then. Why would you want to be piling on more straw mid-struggle to gain no benefit.

Even their gurgle writing nurses were keeping that straight before.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Ahh shit. my son just threw a positive. he is pretty sick.

all stomach and nausea. nothing respiratory

lots of pants shitting. Earily reminds me of his bout last year with a norovirus

guess ill update first hand. Its likely delta since supposedly that is the only thing in florida really

In all seriousness if he ends up getting hospitalized make them test for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV). RSV is going around in kids, especially in the South.

Also Delta isn't the only variant in Florida, its just >60% of cases (supposedly)

I just plugged my info into a program developed by Oxford University called QCovid, that's supposed to tell you your chances of death/hospitalization due to Covid, based on an algorithm they've written. I think it's pretty cool, and it told me my chances of both are extremely, incredibly, astronomically low, but I'm a bit of a smoothbrain. Does anybody know if this thing's actually accurate? How much stock should I put into the results?

Good lord, this paired with the fact I've already beaten it and got antibodies, B-cell memory, T-cell recognition, etc. really demonstrates why COVID is a fucking non-factor to me.
No shits to be given.