2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Gustav Schuchardt said:
The weird thing about gender politics is that the left thinks that if they have a Strong Woman on the ticket, women are more likely to vote for that ticket. Meanwhile, in the real world if there's one thing guaranteed to piss off women it's a Strong Woman politician.
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A Strong Woman is often just a Mean Girl who got old.

Women who knows their worth do not want to have anything to do with them. Because Strong Women hate skilled, intelligent and creative women. They want to surround themselves with barely-competent women that they can rule over.
 
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Tathagata said:
I'd say it's political maturation which reads as realignment. Similar to Irish or Italians that were the mainstay of dems back in the day, but eventually just became white like everyone else. Hispanics aren't like black people—they exist all over the economic and social spectrum, and some families (like in Texas) that are read as just more "Mexicans" by racist dems have been in this country since the 1800s. Why the hell would they vote like ghetto blacks and illegal Guatemalan immigrants? It only makes sense if you look just at skin colour.

Things are realigning/maturing much more quickly due to Trump, but I would point out things like BLM as well. It's a white liberal's wet dream that blacks and muslims and latinos can all sing Kumbaya around the campfire and vote blue, but I guarantee normal Latino families see through a lot of the democrat bullshit like embracing illegal immigration and giving full support to Burn Loot Murder. Hell, white liberals can't even see the difference between Nigerian immigrants and blacks descended from slaves—they're all just black, right? Trump is accelerating all of this by pushing, seemingly single-handedly, for a multi-ethnic populist and working class-heavy Republican base that doesn't care about colour or religion or anything else, unlike the Christian right of the Bush days. If Trump wins again, expect the Republican party to be dragged kicking and screaming into a new age. That will have major implications for the country and avoid the "demographics is destiny" bullshit dems have been counting on for decades. Also why we need to stop illegal immigration (most immigration, really). Let the Latinos prosper and realize dems want them poor and "otherized" for all eternity. Then they'll start voting more red. It will have trickle-down effects in places like the Rust Belt, where Latinos may not be the largest group, but they're enough to swing elections by a few points.
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I'd like to pivot into the bolded because I've been wondering this a lot, why are we seeing polls saying Trump is losing white support yet increasing among blacks and Hispanics? You'd think that he wouldn't win over nonwhites yet that is not what we are seeing here. He is winning the Cuban and Venezuelan vote by massive margins in Florida, Maricopa County is increasing GOP registration despite it being 31.5% Hispanics and Arizona having problems with illegal immigration, and apparently 20% of blacks in Pennsylvania will be voting for him. Great for the Deep South and Arizona, not so much for the Rust Belt. By no measure should this make him competitive in these states.

Yet if you look at Pennsyvlania, voting trends have significantly shifted to Republicans. On October 5th, it dropped below D+720,000 and while time remains to be seen if recent events slows or even reverse that trend, that's a far cry from the D+950,000 registration advantage Democrats had in 2016 when they lost the state. Counties that happen to have the most significant shifts are either in fracking country or have a higher share of the white population than the rest of the state. Many have 80%+ if not 90%+ identify as white. But even counties like Lehigh and Monroe that have a higher nonwhite population than the average are trending Republican too and are potential flips for Trump. Doesn't Pennsylvania have a high population of Puerto Ricans, supposedly one of the most liberal Hispanics? Not to mention in Minnesota, there is an all-out revolt going on in the Iron Range against the DNC that in recent decades have done nothing except kill their economy and that's a white as snow population. Neither, however, explain why Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be trending blue (at least if we listen to Baris). He's also supposedly doing better in urban and rural ares while doing worse in suburbans.

The only thing that makes sense in my head is that if Trump is gaining working class blacks and Hispanics, then he has to be keeping the working class whites too. So the loss has to be coming from somewhere and the only group I can think are are white middle-class or upper-class suburban voters who were disappointed with Trump and are now either staying home or voting for Biden. It'd certainly explain why Trump still has such a loyal Republican base even though the Never Trumpers like John Kasich are voting for Biden.
 
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Someone Awful said:
I'd like to pivot into the bolded because I've been wondering this a lot, why are we seeing polls saying Trump is losing white support yet increasing among blacks and Hispanics? You'd think that he wouldn't win over nonwhites yet that is not what we are seeing here. He is winning the Cuban and Venezuelan vote by massive margins in Florida, Maricopa County is increasing GOP registration despite it being 31.5% Hispanics and Arizona having problems with illegal immigration, and apparently 20% of blacks in Pennsylvania will be voting for him. Great for the Deep South and Arizona, not so much for the Rust Belt. By no measure should this make him competitive in these states.

Yet if you look at Pennsyvlania, voting trends have significantly shifted to Republicans. On October 5th, it dropped below D+720,000 and while time remains to be seen if recent events slows or even reverse that trend, that's a far cry from the D+950,000 registration advantage Democrats had in 2016 when they lost the state. Counties that happen to have the most significant shifts are either in fracking country or have a higher share of the white population than the rest of the state. Many have 80%+ if not 90%+ identify as white. But even counties like Lehigh and Monroe that have a higher nonwhite population than the average are trending Republican too and are potential flips for Trump. Doesn't Pennsylvania have a high population of Puerto Ricans, supposedly one of the most liberal Hispanics? Not to mention in Minnesota, there is an all-out revolt going on in the Iron Range against the DNC that in recent decades have done nothing except kill their economy and that's a white as snow population. Neither, however, explain why Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be trending blue (at least if we listen to Baris). He's also supposedly doing better in urban and rural ares while doing worse in suburbans.

The only thing that makes sense in my head is that if Trump is gaining working class blacks and Hispanics, then he has to be keeping the working class whites too. So the loss has to be coming from somewhere and the only group I can think are are white middle-class or upper-class suburban voters who were disappointed with Trump and are now either staying home or voting for Biden. It'd certainly explain why Trump still has such a loyal Republican base even though the Never Trumpers like John Kasich are voting for Biden.
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The white suburban voters were already uneasy with him in 2016. They were a bunch of pampered pearl clutching faggots who would probably think the current cucked version of WWE is R rated shit. The more richer a suburban area is, the more cucked and democrat leaning they are. We can thank the culture wars, Hollywood and American "time out Timmy" parenting for that shit.

GOP were the smug elitist country club party that was losing relevance among the youth. Trump has changed it into more middle and working class oriented while actually appealing to the youth as well.
 
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Bob Dole has been discussed in this thread.

Yes, Bob Dole was boring and a loser as a presidential candidate. Doesn't mean that he wasn't a good senator. I just means that he didn't have the ability to enthuse the voters enough to win a presdential election. Note that while neither Bush sr or jr, Romney or McCain did endorse Trump, Dole did so.
 
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What influence in terms of millions of votes does the mob steered media actually have on this election? I know Fredo and Moldy Lemon get X million viewers, but Tucker gets X million and so on. Boomers and millennials have their viewing habits etc. etc., but out of the 100 million plus voters casting their ballot this election, how many million of those could really be expected to be influenced by television? Television! In 2020. I'm legit curious. 20 mil? 30 mil?
 
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Big Nasty said:
Bob Dole has been discussed in this thread.

Yes, Bob Dole was boring and a loser as a presidential candidate. Doesn't mean that he wasn't a good senator. I just means that he didn't have the ability enthuse the voters enough to win a presdential election. Note that while neither Bush sr or jr, Romney or McCain did endorse Trump, Dole did so.
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And his rocking election website is still online

dolekemp96anim.gif

 
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Tathagata said:
Republican base that doesn't care about colour or religion or anything else, unlike the Christian right of the Bush days. If Trump wins again, expect the Republican party to be dragged kicking and screaming into a new age.
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I hate this framing. This is the framing of someone who believes what the mainstream media tells them and not their own eyes.

Do you really think that the Republican base was a bunch of racists obsessed with color until Trump had to drag them kicking and screaming out of the stone age? That's the dumbest shit I ever heard in my life. As every black Republican, including myself will tell you, "bunch of racists obsessed with color" applies far more to the Dems than the GOP.

Policy wise, sure, Trump has changed the Republican Party for the better. But as for demographics, the only change is a change in Democrat minorities finally waking up and realizing their old party is still the racist piece of shit they've always been since before the civil war.
 
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Someone Awful said:
I'd like to pivot into the bolded because I've been wondering this a lot, why are we seeing polls saying Trump is losing white support yet increasing among blacks and Hispanics? You'd think that he wouldn't win over nonwhites yet that is not what we are seeing here. He is winning the Cuban and Venezuelan vote by massive margins in Florida, Maricopa County is increasing GOP registration despite it being 31.5% Hispanics and Arizona having problems with illegal immigration, and apparently 20% of blacks in Pennsylvania will be voting for him. Great for the Deep South and Arizona, not so much for the Rust Belt. By no measure should this make him competitive in these states.

Yet if you look at Pennsyvlania, voting trends have significantly shifted to Republicans. On October 5th, it dropped below D+720,000 and while time remains to be seen if recent events slows or even reverse that trend, that's a far cry from the D+950,000 registration advantage Democrats had in 2016 when they lost the state. Counties that happen to have the most significant shifts are either in fracking country or have a higher share of the white population than the rest of the state. Many have 80%+ if not 90%+ identify as white. But even counties like Lehigh and Monroe that have a higher nonwhite population than the average are trending Republican too and are potential flips for Trump. Doesn't Pennsylvania have a high population of Puerto Ricans, supposedly one of the most liberal Hispanics? Not to mention in Minnesota, there is an all-out revolt going on in the Iron Range against the DNC that in recent decades have done nothing except kill their economy and that's a white as snow population. Neither, however, explain why Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be trending blue (at least if we listen to Baris). He's also supposedly doing better in urban and rural ares while doing worse in suburbans.

The only thing that makes sense in my head is that if Trump is gaining working class blacks and Hispanics, then he has to be keeping the working class whites too. So the loss has to be coming from somewhere and the only group I can think are are white middle-class or upper-class suburban voters who were disappointed with Trump and are now either staying home or voting for Biden. It'd certainly explain why Trump still has such a loyal Republican base even though the Never Trumpers like John Kasich are voting for Biden.
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You are missing some parts of the equation. Hispanics were uneasy of Trump in 2016 due to the heavy immigration stances that he took. With coronavirus sucking the air out of the room, the Democrats cannot fake cry in front of ICE centers anymore. That's allowing Hispanics to ease on Trump and rise with the WWC.

Also, along white shifts in WWC and nonwhite working class, you need to see the insanity tier gains that Trump is making in rural areas of most states. While individually small, when put together, with each trending so hard Rep this cycle makes states that have some parts shifting away from Trump get offset by the crazy gains he is getting. That's why he is competitive in Pennsylvania. Because 80+% of counties are trending like Ohio. Also, when you consider the fact that Baris found that Trump was STILL taking 12+% of the Democratic base in 2020, even after realignment and against conventional wisdom that states that they would've just registered as Republican already, it makes it much harder for Dems to retain it. I wonder if he finds it again in his new PA poll.
 
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Here is my electoral map prediction based on what states I think each candidate would get

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I am giving Trump both Ohio and Florida because both of those states are definitely leaning Republican, so I feel a bit confident Trump can carry both of those states again. I also gave him Arizona because despite what the media says, Arizona likely won't be a swing state but the possibility can still exist.

Biden could get Wisconsin based on the current polls (even from more reputable sources), and if Wisconsin voters believe a Biden win can keep them safe especially with the many riots going on there. It's not definite but I could buy it leaning towards Biden.

Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Iowa are honestly hard to call for me. Biden is targeting a lot of energy into trying to get the Rustbelt states especially Pennsylvania and Michigan in particular, but it could be possible Trump can still win those states again if the voters believe he will still be a good president for the working class. Minnesota is close now given the rioting and the many democrats (especially the nine mayors who endorsed Trump) could make this state a swing state. Iowa is a weird state because since 1988 only two Republicans were able to win it (being Bush in 2004 and Trump in 2016), so it's a unknown state to call due to how it sorta swings either way.

So for Trump to win he has to win all the states that typically go Republican along with Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to get more than 270, ideally he needs to get the states that he won in 2016. Biden needs to get the rustbelt states in order for him to win the election, the ideal outcome for him is that enough people who hate Trump will turn out 2008 style..

EDIT: WIsconsin honestly should've been a tossup since I realize that it is also unknown and has the same chances as Minnesota.
 
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Truthboi said:
Here is my electoral map prediction based on what states I think each candidate would get

View attachment 1653163


I am giving Trump both Ohio and Florida because both of those states are definitely leaning Republican, so I feel a bit confident Trump can carry both of those states again. I also gave him Arizona because despite what the media says, Arizona likely won't be a swing state but the possibility can still exist.

Biden could get Wisconsin based on the current polls (even from more reputable sources), and if Wisconsin voters believe a Biden win can keep them safe especially with the many riots going on there. It's not definite but I could buy it leaning towards Biden.

Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Iowa are honestly hard to call for me. Biden is targeting a lot of energy into trying to get the Rustbelt states especially Pennsylvania and Michigan in particular, but it could be possible Trump can still win those states again if the voters believe he will still be a good president for the working class. Minnesota is close now given the rioting and the many democrats (especially the nine mayors who endorsed Trump) could make this state a swing state. Iowa is a weird state because since 1988 only two Republicans were able to win it (being Bush in 2004 and Trump in 2016), so it's a unknown state to call due to how it sorta swings either way.

So for Trump to win he has to win all the states that typically go Republican along with Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to get more than 270, ideally he needs to get the states that he won in 2016. Biden needs to get the rustbelt states in order for him to win the election, the ideal outcome for him is that enough people who hate Trump will turn out 2008 style..
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Wisconsin will go for Biden because of the riots but not Minnesota. If Minnesota goes to Trump, so does Wisconsin. Iowa will go to the Republicans comfortably. Its Pennsylvania and Michigan that are the big unknowns. I also believe New Hampshire and Maine might go to Trump as well.
 
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RockPaper said:
In your hypothetical, Trump only Needs PA to win.
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Yes since it's likely he could get both Ohio and Florida based on the trends of those states, especially with Florida which is a state that leans very republican since the only times a Democrat won the state in the past 40 years were in 1996 with Bill Clinton (who was more charismatic than Dole, and had a good economy under him at the time), and both of Obama's wins (because both McCain and Romney were wet blankets while Obama had more charisma) but even then Obama won the state narrowly by 2% of the vote in 2008 and 1% in 2012. Trump could win the state given the amount of elderly people in Florida, the cubans liking him, and Trump has campaigned in Florida more than Biden.

Ohio could go to Trump as that is the only rust belt state that Trump won that he got more than 50% of the vote in and led Hillary by double digits while the other Rustbelt states were narrow victories for Trump (especially Michigan and Wisconsin).

Pennsylvania is a state that Trump needs to win, or alternatively if Biden wins it than Trump needs Michigan and Iowa.
 
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