In April 2022 they closed on the house for a purchase price of $1,050,000 and acquired a mortgage for $776,250. This would reflect a 26.1% down payment, which strikes me as odd -- maybe the lender required more due to fluctuating income or they bought points to lower the mortgage rate (which also might have been higher than normal due to fluctuating income.
If they closed in April 2022, they probably have a 30 year mortgage at around 4.5%. Some rough math would be they've probably paid off, of their principal:
- 2022 - $9,300
- 2023 - $12,900
- 2024 - $13,500
- 2025 - $7,500 (so far)
So let's call it $317,000 in equity at the list price. Factor in, let's say 4% closing costs for $52,000, and a sale at list price would probably leave them with $265,000. The math on the closing costs shifts slightly depending on dropping list price, but you can roughly deduct any purchase price deductions on the house from the $265,000 they'd net out at the end. Realtor.com's analytics estimate the house would sell for about a million, so call it $215,000.
The real curveball is that it's been listed for 18 days and apparently still no movement. Similarly situated homes that have recently sold nearby appear to
have gone
under contract
within a
week. Hard to say where this will all net out for them. The $95,000 they allegedly spent on "recent upgrades" certainly isn't doing them the favors they thought it would, and they might be paying to stage the place with the furniture in the listing photos until it goes under contract.
All that said, if they had the bandwidth to put more than 20% down, and sink $95k into fixing up the place, my sense is they do have a chunk of assets they can lean on behind the scenes. But long-term planning is probably not looking good, so they are fleeing to canada for le socialism thinking they'll be treated to a wealth of free healthcare and eventually Canada's old age security program. But if Canada keeps on its trend
economically, they might have to get lucky just to obtain discounted MAID.
